Southern Hemisphere Climate Change Research Articles

Spatial and temporal variability in Holocene trough-fill sediments, King Haakon Trough System, sub-Antarctic South Georgia

The climate in the South Atlantic sector of the sub-Antarctic, and therefore on and around the island of South Georgia, is dependent on the Southern Hemisphere Westerlies (SHW) and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). The SHW and the ACC, in turn, are strongly controlled by climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere. Accordingly, thick sediment sequences in the troughs across South Georgia's continental shelf serve as valuable archives for past climate variations in the Southern Ocean. Since Holocene climate fluctuations led to only minimal oscillations in glacier margin positions within the fjords, the entire shelf was exposed to dynamic ocean currents since at least 10 ka BP. Its depositional systems are therefore a suitable target for the reconstruction of Holocene dynamics of both the SHW and the ACC. Sub-bottom profiler data and radiocarbon ages from four gravity cores from the south-western South Georgia continental shelf provide evidence for a complex interplay between island run-off and ocean currents intruding into a unique cross-shelf trough system during the last ∼10 ka. The data reveal several prominent changes in sediment and Holocene climate dynamics, the most significant occurring between 8 and 7.7 cal ka BP and between 2.6 and 2.2 cal ka BP. Both of these time periods represent transitions from warmer to cooler and windier conditions in South Georgia and the Southern Hemisphere. Our record from the King Haakon Trough System is the first highly resolved Holocene archive from the marine realm on the south-western South Georgia continental shelf and suggests several large-scale Southern Hemisphere climate changes during the mid-to late Holocene.

Prescribing stratospheric chemistry overestimates southern hemisphere climate change during austral spring in response to quadrupled CO2

The interaction of stratospheric chemistry with a changing climate from an abrupt CO2 quadrupling is assessed using the coupled atmosphere–ocean Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM). Two abrupt 4 × CO2 experiments were performed, one with interactive stratospheric chemistry and the other with a prescribed stratospheric chemistry that does not simulate stratospheric ozone response to 4 × CO2. The interactive and prescribed chemistry experiments simulate similar global mean surface temperature change. Nevertheless, interactive chemistry is critical to capture the Southern Hemisphere tropospheric midlatitude jet response to 4 × CO2. When stratospheric ozone response to 4 × CO2 is neglected, GEOSCCM overestimates Southern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation change. This stratospheric chemistry-induced climate impact has large seasonal variability. During the austral spring season September–October–November (SON), prescribed chemistry yields a stronger poleward shift and intensification of the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude tropospheric jet, surface wind stress, and the Southern Ocean meridional overturning circulation than occurs with interactive chemistry. In other seasons interactive and prescribed chemistry have similar effects on the Southern Hemisphere circulation. The seasonality of stratospheric chemistry-induced climate impact is related to the seasonality of Antarctic lower stratospheric ozone response to 4 × CO2. In contrast to this stratospheric ozone response to 4 × CO2, stratospheric ozone recovery from decline of the ozone depleting substances has its largest impact on the Southern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation in austral summer (December–January–February), but no effects in SON. It is found that the different seasonality for these two stratospheric ozone layer change scenarios is related to the different seasonality of tropopause meridional temperature gradient response.

Influence of Ozone Forcing on 21st Century Southern Hemisphere Surface Westerlies in CMIP6 Models

AbstractThe tropospheric westerly jet is a key feature of Southern Hemisphere climate. In recent decades the jet strengthened in austral summer (December–February [DJF]) and moved poleward owing to the Antarctic ozone hole. Future jet trends will be influenced by recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole and greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. Here, we examine 21st century projections of ozone, temperature and winds in the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models with (CHEM) and without (NOCHEM) interactive chemistry. NOCHEM models use an ozone data set that was produced with GHG forcings inconsistent with those used by CHEM models, leading to less ozone recovery in the Antarctic springtime lower stratosphere. This propagates to different stratospheric temperature projections and DJF westerly winds: NOCHEM models project a 78 ± 52% stronger increase in DJF westerly wind speeds than CHEM models under the high GHG emissions scenario SSP585. Our results show the importance of simulating stratospheric ozone accurately for Southern Hemisphere climate change projections.

Multiple glacial maxima of similar extent at ∼20–45 ka on Mt. Usborne, East Falkland, South Atlantic region

The pattern, timing, and origin of Southern Hemisphere climate change during the last glaciation remains a pressing problem, with implications for the role of orbital forcing in ice-age cycles. Here, we present geomorphological and cosmogenic exposure age data from East Falkland in the South Atlantic region that show onset of glacial conditions by marine isotope stage 4 (∼60–70 ka), with expansion of ice to its maximum extent of the last glaciation. At least seven geomorphological units marked by multiple crests on composite moraines indicate glacier expansion on Mt. Usborne, the highest peak of East Falkland. From ∼20 to 45 ka, glaciers fluctuated on a millennial timescale with near-maximum conditions being reached repeatedly. Overall ice extent appears to have shrunk slightly through time, with evidence of glaciation at ∼20 ka preserved only in the highest-elevation cirques. This long glacial maximum is inconsistent both with local orbital control and orbital forcing as expressed in the traditional Milankovitch hypothesis. The timing of millennial glacier expansions occurred between Northern Hemisphere Heinrich Stadials and resembles that documented for New Zealand glaciers, suggesting at least a trans-Pacific expression. We postulate that periodic recessions corresponded with southward expansion of the southern westerlies during Heinrich Stadials and warming air and ocean temperatures over the South Atlantic region.

Ice core and climate reanalysis analogs to predict Antarctic and Southern Hemisphere climate changes

A primary goal of the SCAR (Scientific Committee for Antarctic Research) initiated AntClim21 (Antarctic Climate in the 21st Century) Scientific Research Programme is to develop analogs for understanding past, present and future climates for the Antarctic and Southern Hemisphere. In this contribution to AntClim21 we provide a framework for achieving this goal that includes: a description of basic climate parameters; comparison of existing climate reanalyses; and ice core sodium records as proxies for the frequencies of marine air mass intrusion spanning the past ∼2000 years. The resulting analog examples include: natural variability, a continuation of the current trend in Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate characterized by some regions of warming and some cooling at the surface of the Southern Ocean, Antarctic ozone healing, a generally warming climate and separate increases in the meridional and zonal winds. We emphasize changes in atmospheric circulation because the atmosphere rapidly transports heat, moisture, momentum, and pollutants, throughout the middle to high latitudes. In addition, atmospheric circulation interacts with temporal variations (synoptic to monthly scales, inter-annual, decadal, etc.) of sea ice extent and concentration. We also investigate associations between Antarctic atmospheric circulation features, notably the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL), and primary climate teleconnections including the SAM (Southern Annular Mode), ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), and solar irradiance variations.

The timing and cause of glacial advances in the southern mid-latitudes during the last glacial cycle based on a synthesis of exposure ages from Patagonia and New Zealand

Abstract Glacier advances in the southern mid-latitudes during the last glacial cycle (ca. 110–10 ka) were controlled by changes in temperature and precipitation linked to several important ocean-climate systems. As such, the timing of glacial advance and retreat can yield important insights into the mechanisms of Southern Hemisphere climate change. This is particularly important given that several recent studies have demonstrated significant glacial advances prior to the global Last Glacial Maximum (gLGM) in Patagonia and New Zealand, the cause of which are uncertain. The recent increase in chronological studies in these regions offers the opportunity to compare regional trends in glacial activity. Here, we compile the first consistent 10Be exposure-dating chronologies for Patagonia and New Zealand to highlight the broad pattern of mid-latitude glacial activity over the last glacial cycle. Our results show that advances or still stands culminated at 26–27 ka, 18–19 ka and 13–14 ka in both Patagonia and New Zealand and were broadly synchronous, but with an offset between regions of up to 900 years that cannot be explained by age calculation or physically plausible erosion differences. Furthermore, there is evidence in both regions for glacial advances culminating from at least 45 ka, during the latter half of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3. Glacial activity prior to the gLGM differed from the large Northern Hemisphere ice sheets, likely due to favourable Southern Hemisphere conditions during late MIS 3: summer insolation reached a minimum, seasonality was reduced, winter duration was increasing, and sea ice had expanded significantly, inducing stratification of the ocean and triggering northward migration of oceanic fronts and the Southern Westerly Winds. Glacial advances in Patagonia and New Zealand during the gLGM were probably primed by underlying orbital parameters. However, the precise timing is likely to have been intrinsically linked to migration of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system, which may account for the small offset between Patagonia and New Zealand due to differences in oceanic frontal migration. During deglaciation, advances or still stands occurred in both regions during the southern Antarctic Cold Reversal (ca. 14.5–12.9 ka) rather than the northern Younger Dryas (ca. 12.9–11.7 ka). Our findings suggest that major rearrangements of the Southern Hemisphere climate system occurred at various times during the last glacial cycle, with associated impacts on the position and intensity of the Southern Westerly Winds and oceanic fronts, as well as wind-driven upwelling and degassing of the deep Southern Ocean. Thus, reconstructing the timing of glacial advance/retreat using our compilation is a powerful way to understand the mechanisms of past interhemispheric climate change.

Climate change induced by Southern Hemisphere desertification

Some 10–20% of global dry-lands are already degraded, and the ongoing desertification threatens the world's poorest populations. Studies on desertification effects are essential for humans to adapt to the environmental challenges posed by desertification. Given the importance of the much larger southern ocean to the global climate and the Southern Hemisphere (SH) climate changes in phase with those in the north, the biogeophysical effects of the SH desertification on climate are assessed using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, MPM-2. This analysis focuses on differences in climate among the averages of simulations with desert expansion in different latitude bands by year 2000. The localized desertification causes significant global changes in temperature and precipitation as well as surface albedo. On the global scale, cooling dominates the SH desertification effects. However, the biogeophysical effects are most significant in regions with desertification, and the cooling is also prominent in northern mid-latitudes. Desert expansion in 15°–30°S reveals statistically most significant cooling and increased precipitation over the forcing regions during spring. The global and regional scale responses from desertification imply the climate teleconnection and address the importance of the effects from the SH which are contingent on the location of the forcing. Our study indicates that biogeophysical mechanisms of land cover changes in the SH need to be accounted for in the assessment of land management options especially for latitude band over 15°-30°S.

Modeling the climate impact of Southern Hemisphere ozone depletion: The importance of the ozone data set

AbstractThe ozone hole is an important driver of recent Southern Hemisphere (SH) climate change, and capturing these changes is a goal of climate modeling. Most climate models are driven by off‐line ozone data sets. Previous studies have shown that there is a substantial range in estimates of SH ozone depletion, but the implications of this range have not been examined systematically. We use a climate model to evaluate the difference between using the ozone forcing (Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC)) used by many Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models and one at the upper end of the observed depletion estimates (Binary Database of Profiles (BDBP)). In the stratosphere, we find that austral spring/summer polar cap cooling, geopotential height decreases, and zonal wind increases in the BDBP simulations are all doubled compared to the SPARC simulations, while tropospheric responses are 20–100% larger. These results are important for studies attempting to diagnose the climate fingerprints of ozone depletion.

Delayed Southern Hemisphere Climate Change Induced by Stratospheric Ozone Recovery, as Projected by the CMIP5 Models

AbstractStratospheric ozone is expected to recover by the end of this century because of the regulation of ozone-depleting substances by the Montreal Protocol. Targeted modeling studies have suggested that the climate response to ozone recovery will greatly oppose the climate response to rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, the extent of this cancellation remains unclear since only a few such studies are available. Here, a much larger set of simulations performed for phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project is analyzed, which includes ozone recovery. It is shown that the closing of the ozone hole will cause a delay in summertime [December–February (DJF)] Southern Hemisphere climate change between now and 2045. Specifically, it is found that the position of the jet stream, the width of the subtropical dry zones, the seasonality of surface temperatures, and sea ice concentrations all exhibit significantly reduced summertime trends over the first half of the twenty-first century as a consequence of ozone recovery. After 2045, forcing from GHG emissions begins to dominate the climate response. Finally, comparing the relative influences of future GHG emissions and historic ozone depletion, it is found that the simulated DJF tropospheric circulation changes between 1965 and 2005 (driven primarily by ozone depletion) are larger than the projected changes in any future scenario over the entire twenty-first century.

Improved seasonal forecast using ozone hole variability?

Southern Hemisphere (SH) climate change has been partly attributed to Antarctic ozone depletion in the literatures. Here we show that the ozone hole has affected not only the long‐term climate change but also the interannual variability of SH surface climate. A significant negative correlation is observed between September ozone concentration and the October southern annular mode index, resulting in systematic variations in precipitation and surface air temperature throughout the SH. This time‐lagged relationship is comparable to and independent of that associated with El Niño‐Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode, suggesting that SH seasonal forecasts could be improved by considering Antarctic stratospheric variability.

Possible Dynamical Mechanisms for Southern Hemisphere Climate Change due to the Ozone Hole

Abstract The authors report a hypothesis for the dynamical mechanisms responsible for the strengthening of the Southern Hemisphere circumpolar winds from the lower stratosphere to the surface due to the ozone hole. A general circulation model forced by stratospheric ozone depletion representative of the ozone hole period successfully reproduced these observed changes. Investigation of the dynamical characteristics of the model therefore provides some insight into the actual mechanisms. From this the authors suggest the following: 1) An initial (radiative) strengthening of the lower-stratospheric winds as a result of ozone depletion conditions the polar vortex so that fewer planetary waves propagate up from the troposphere, resulting in weaker planetary wave driving. 2) This causes further strengthening of the vortex, which results in an additional reduction in upward-propagating planetary waves and initiates a positive feedback mechanism in which the weaker wave driving and the associated strengthened winds are drawn downward to the tropopause. 3) In the troposphere the midlatitude jet shifts poleward in association with increases in the synoptic wave fluxes of heat and momentum, which are the result of a positive feedback mechanism consisting of two components: 4) increases in low-level baroclinicity, and the subsequent generation of baroclinic activity (associated with a poleward heat flux), are collocated with the jet latitudinal position, and 5) strengthening anticyclonic shear increases the refraction of wave activity equatorward (associated with a poleward momentum flux). Finally, 6) confinement of planetary waves in the high-latitude troposphere is an important step to couple the stratospheric changes to the tropospheric response.

Controls on the East Asian monsoon during the last glacial cycle, based on comparison between Hulu Cave and polar ice-core records

Previous studies have suggested a sound chronological correlation between the Hulu Cave record (East Asian monsoon) and Greenland ice-core records, which implies a dominant control of northern hemisphere climate processes on monsoon intensity. We present an objective, straightforward statistical evaluation that challenges this generally accepted paradigm for sub-orbital variability. We propose a more flexible, global interpretation, which takes into account a broad range of variability in the signal structures in the Hulu Cave and polar ice-core records, rather than a limited number of major transitions. Our analysis employs the layer-counted Greenland Ice-Core Chronology 2005 (GICC05), which was developed for Greenland records and has since been applied – via methane synchronisation – to the high-resolution δ 18O ice series from EPICA Dronning Maud Land (EDML). The GICC05 chronology allows these ice-core records to be compared to the U–Th dated Hulu Cave record within relatively narrow (∼3%) bounds of age uncertainty. Following previous suggestions, our proposed interpretation suggests that the East Asian monsoon is influenced by a combination of northern hemisphere ‘pull’ (which is more intense during boreal warm periods), and southern hemisphere ‘push’ (which is more intense monsoon during austral cold periods). Our analysis strongly suggests a dominant control on millennial-scale monsoon variability by southern hemisphere climate changes during glacial times when the monsoon is weak overall, and control by northern hemisphere climate changes during deglacial and interglacial times when the monsoon is strong. The deduced temporally variable relationship with southern hemisphere climate records offers a statistically more plausible reason for the apparent coincidence of major East Asian monsoon transitions with northern hemisphere (Dansgaard–Oeschger, DO) climate events during glacial times, than the traditional a priori interpretation of strict northern hemisphere control.

Ozone hole and Southern Hemisphere climate change

Climate change in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) has been robustly documented in the last several years. It has altered the atmospheric circulation in a surprising number of ways: a rising global tropopause, a poleward intensification of the westerly jet, a poleward shift in storm tracks, a poleward expansion of the Hadley cell, and many others. While these changes have been extensively related with anthropogenic warming resulting from the increase in greenhouse gases, their potential link to stratospheric cooling resulting from ozone depletion has only recently been examined and a comprehensive picture is still lacking. Examining model output from the coupled climate models participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment (AR4), and grouping them depending on the stratospheric ozone forcing used, we here show that stratospheric ozone affects the entire atmospheric circulation in the SH, from the polar regions to the subtropics, and from the stratosphere to the surface. Furthermore, model projections suggest that the anticipated ozone recovery, resulting from the implementation of the Montreal Protocol, will likely decelerate future climate change resulting from increased greenhouse gases, although it might accelerate surface warming over Antarctica.

Planktonic foraminiferal records of East Asia monsoon changes in the southern South China Sea during the last 40,000 years

Planktonic foraminiferal assemblages and benthic foraminiferal oxygen isotopes were obtained in a gravity core NS07-25 (6°39.945′ N, 113°32.936′ E, water depth 2006 m) collected from the southern South China Sea (SCS) to investigate East Asia monsoon changes during the last 40,000 years. Four cold events identified from four peaks of the relative abundance of Neogloboqua d rina pachyderma (dex.) and Globigerina quinqueloba correlate well with those in the Hulu monsoon record within age uncertainty, and can be linked to Heinrich events in the Northern Atlantic high latitudes. We suggest that the relative abundance of N. pachyderma (dex.) and G. quinqueloba in the southern SCS can be used as a direct proxy for East Asia winter monsoon (EAWM) changes during glacial periods. In contrast to its low abundance in the northern SCS and Okinawa Trough, the relative abundance of Pulleniatina obliquiloculata shows high values during the last glacial in the southern SCS, caused likely by the combined impact of optimum winter sea-surface temperature (SST) and stronger mixing/enhanced upwelling at that time. A P. obliquiloculata minimum event (PME) found in the Okinawa Trough and the northern and southern SCS during the H1 period was possibly related to a large drop in winter SST due to the intensified EAWM. We propose that this PME can be also used as a reliable regional stratigraphic marker as the Holocene one. A 9-cm sandy silt layer deposit in core NS07-25 during the H1 period probably related to the enhanced current that was caused by the especially strengthened EAWM at that time. The last deglacial warming recorded in the relative abundance of warm and cold species of planktonic foraminifer reveals that changes between the EASM and EAWM were not in phase but alternating between a winter monsoon dominated northern hemisphere influence and a summer monsoon dominated influence of the tropical dynamics and/or southern hemisphere climate changes.

The Impact of Stratospheric Ozone Recovery on Tropopause Height Trends

Abstract The evolution of the tropopause in the past, present, and future climate is examined by analyzing a set of long-term integrations with stratosphere-resolving chemistry climate models (CCMs). These CCMs have high vertical resolution near the tropopause, a model top located in the mesosphere or above, and, most important, fully interactive stratospheric chemistry. Using such CCM integrations, it is found that the tropopause pressure (height) will continue to decrease (increase) in the future, but with a trend weaker than that in the recent past. The reduction in the future tropopause trend is shown to be directly associated with stratospheric ozone recovery. A significant ozone recovery occurs in the Southern Hemisphere lower stratosphere of the CCMs, and this leads to a relative warming there that reduces the tropopause trend in the twenty-first century. The future tropopause trends predicted by the CCMs are considerably smaller than those predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) models, especially in the southern high latitudes. This difference persists even when the CCMs are compared with the subset of the AR4 model integrations for which stratospheric ozone recovery was prescribed. These results suggest that a realistic representation of the stratospheric processes might be important for a reliable estimate of tropopause trends. The implications of these finding for the Southern Hemisphere climate change are also discussed.

Oscillating glacial northern and southern deep water formation from combined neodymium and carbon isotopes

While ocean circulation is driven by the formation of deep water in the North Atlantic and the Circum-Antarctic, the role of southern-sourced deep water formation in climate change is poorly understood. Here we address the balance of northern- and southern-sourced waters in the South Atlantic through the last glacial period using neodymium isotope ratios of authigenic ferromanganese oxides in thirteen deep sea cores from throughout the South Atlantic. The data indicate that northern-sourced water did not reach the Southern Ocean during the late glacial, and was replaced by southern-derived intermediate and deep waters. The high-resolution neodymium isotope record (~ 300 yr sample spacing) from two spliced deep Cape Basin sites indicates that over the last glacial period northern-sourced water mass export to the Southern Ocean was stronger during the major Greenland millennial warming intervals (and Southern Hemisphere cool periods), and particularly during the major interstadials 8, 12, and 14. Northern-sourced water mass export was weaker during Greenland stadials and reached minima during Heinrich Events. The benthic foraminiferal carbon isotopes in the same Cape Basin core reflect a partial control by Southern Hemisphere climate changes and indicate that deep water formation and ventilation occurred in the Southern Ocean during major Greenland cooling intervals (stadials). Together, neodymium isotopes and benthic carbon isotopes provide new information about water mass sourcing and circulation in deep Southern Ocean waters during rapid glacial climate changes. Combining carbon and neodymium isotopes can be used to monitor the relative proportion of northern- and southern-sourced waters in the Cape Basin to gain insight into the processes which control the carbon isotopic composition of deep waters. In this study we show that deep water formation and circulation was more important than biological productivity and nutrient regeneration changes for controlling the carbon isotope chemistry of Antarctic Bottom Water during millennial-scale glacial climate cycles. This observation also lends support to the hypothesis that ocean circulation is linked to interhemispheric climate changes on short timescales, and that ventilation in the glacial ocean rapidly switched between the northern and Southern Hemisphere on millennial timescales.

Climate variability of southern Chile since the Last Glacial Maximum: a continuous sedimentological record from Lago Puyehue (40°S)

This paper presents a multi-proxy climate record of an 11 m long core collected in Lago Puyehue (southern Chile, 40°S) and extending back to 18,000 cal yr BP. The multi-proxy analyses include sedimentology, mineralogy, grain size, geochemistry, loss-on-ignition, magnetic susceptibility and radiocarbon dating. Results demonstrate that sediment grain size is positively correlated with the biogenic sediment content and can be used as a proxy for lake paleoproductivity. On the other hand, the magnetic susceptibility signal is correlated with the aluminium and titanium concentrations and can be used as a proxy for the terrigenous supply. Temporal variations of sediment composition evidence that, since the Last Glacial Maximum, the Chilean Lake District was characterized by three abrupt climate changes superimposed on a long-term climate evolution. These rapid climate changes are: (1) an abrupt warming at the end of the Last Glacial Maximum at 17,300 cal yr BP; (2) a 13,100–12,300 cal yr BP cold event, ending rapidly and interpreted as the local counterpart of the Younger Dryas cold period, and (3) a 3,400–2,900 cal yr BP climatic instability synchronous with a period of low solar activity. The timing of the 13,100–12,300 cold event is compared with similar records in both hemispheres and demonstrates that this southern hemisphere climate change precedes the northern hemisphere Younger Dryas cold period by 500 to 1,000 years.

Sea ice control of Plio–Pleistocene tropical Pacific climate evolution

Marine proxies of sea surface temperature (SST) indicate that the tropical Pacific thermal gradient intensified through the Plio–Pleistocene and peaked during Pleistocene glaciations. The cause of this variability, which has been linked to the initiation of the Walker circulation, is uncertain. Here, we hypothesize that Plio–Pleistocene tropical climate variability was coupled to high-latitude Southern Hemisphere climate change, specifically sea-ice extent. We use a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model to investigate the influences of sea-ice extent and atmospheric CO 2 on the tropical Pacific thermal structure. In the model, CO 2-radiative forcing in the absence of any sea-ice feedbacks has little influence on the tropical SST gradient. A 180 ppm reduction in CO 2 causes the SST gradient to decrease by 0.4 °C. In comparison, an expansion of Southern Hemisphere, high-latitude sea ice reduces tropical SSTs and enhances the SST gradient in the tropical Pacific by as much as 3.5 °C. Tropical cooling is primarily due to the advection and upwelling of waters into the eastern equatorial Pacific that were cooled by sensible heat loss at the sea-ice margin in the Southern Pacific. An energy balance analysis indicates that the ocean heat flux into the eastern equatorial Pacific decreases by ∼ 44%. This mechanism provides an intimate coupling between the tropical Pacific and the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere through the thermocline circulation.

Regional insolation forcing of late Quaternary climate change in the Southern Hemisphere

In agreement with the Milankovitch orbital forcing hypothesis it is often assumed that glacial-interglacial climate transitions occurred synchronously in the Northern and Southern hemispheres of the Earth. It is difficult to test this assumption, because of the paucity of long, continuous climate records from the Southern Hemisphere that have not been dated by tuning them to the presumed Northern Hemisphere signals. Here we present an independently dated terrestrial pollen record from a peat bog on South Island, New Zealand, to investigate global and local factors in Southern Hemisphere climate changes during the last two glacial-interglacial cycles. Our record largely corroborates the Milankovitch model of orbital forcing but also exhibits some differences: in particular, an earlier onset and longer duration of the Last Glacial Maximum. Our results suggest that Southern Hemisphere insolation may have been responsible for these differences in timing. Our findings question the validity of applying orbital tuning to Southern Hemisphere records and suggest an alternative mechanism to the bipolar seesaw for generating interhemispheric asynchrony in climate change.

Simulation of recent southern hemisphere climate change.

Recent observations indicate that climate change over the high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere is dominated by a strengthening of the circumpolar westerly flow that extends from the surface to the stratosphere. Here we demonstrate that the seasonality, structure, and amplitude of the observed climate trends are simulated in a state-of-the-art atmospheric model run with high vertical resolution that is forced solely by prescribed stratospheric ozone depletion. The results provide evidence that anthropogenic emissions of ozonedepleting gases have had a distinct impact on climate not only at stratospheric levels but at Earth's surface as well.