Southern Boreal Forest Research Articles

Understory vegetation diversity and composition in intensively managed plantations compared to extensively managed forests

The benefits of plantations for wood production are well known, but it is unclear whether they have a clear negative effect on biodiversity, compared to natural forests. It is also unclear how overstory species identity (i.e., exotic, compared to native) would interact with the simple plantation effects on understory vegetation biodiversity. Here, we assessed bryophyte, lichen, and vascular plant diversity and composition in mono-specific and mixed plantations of exotic and native hybrid poplars (Populus spp.) and exotic and native spruces (Picea spp.). We compared these plantations to reference forests with similar overstory types (coniferous, deciduous, mixed) to those of the plantations in the southern boreal forest of Quebec. We also assessed whether the overstory species identity in plantations influenced understory vegetation biodiversity compared to reference forests. Our results show that plantations were not biological deserts, since mixed plantations contained similar bryophyte and vascular plant diversity as reference mixed native forests. The presence of native spruces and exotic poplars in mixed plantations increased bryophyte and vascular plant diversity respectively. This suggests that the influence of plantations on understory species diversity, compared to reference forests, was linked to the overstory species identity. Plantations were associated with ruderal plant species, while reference forests were composed of forest species. Bryophyte composition was similar in plantations and reference forests, while lichen species were only present in plantations. Our findings highlight that plantations, especially mixtures of white spruce and exotic poplar, are a promising option for planting strategies to enhance biodiversity.

Warming and disturbances affect Arctic-boreal vegetation resilience across northwestern North America.

Rapid warming and increasing disturbances in high-latitude regions have caused extensive vegetation shifts and uncertainty in future carbon budgets. Better predictions of vegetation dynamics and functions require characterizing resilience, which indicates the capability of an ecosystem to recover from perturbations. Here, using temporal autocorrelation of remotely sensed greenness, we quantify time-varying vegetation resilience during 2000-2019 across northwestern North American Arctic-boreal ecosystems. We find that vegetation resilience significantly decreased in southern boreal forests, including forests showing greening trends, while it increased in most of the Arctic tundra. Warm and dry areas with high elevation and dense vegetation cover were among the hotspots of reduced resilience. Resilience further declined both before and after forest losses and fires, especially in southern boreal forests. These findings indicate that warming and disturbance have been altering vegetation resilience, potentially undermining the expected long-term increase of high-latitude carbon uptake under future climate.

Contrasting foliar nitrogen nutrition of coexisting temperate and boreal trees across a modest temperature cline

The temperate-boreal forest ecotone represents a transition zone from temperate to boreal forest where nitrogen (N) is frequently limiting tree growth, which is highly sensitive to climate change. However, the spatial patterns and potential drivers of plant N nutrition and soil N availability remain poorly understood. To address this, we conducted a field investigation along a temperate-boreal forest ecotone in northeastern China, characterized by a modest mean annual temperature gradient (∼1°C) within the range of current climate warming. Our goal was to evaluate the spatial variation in foliar N nutrition and soil N availability, and the potential driving factors for Mongolian oak (Quercus mongolica) and Dahurian larch (Larix gmelinii), the dominant trees of the local temperate and adjacent boreal forests, respectively. Our results revealed no significant spatial trend in topsoil N availability across the sampling transect. Overall, foliar N concentration was significantly higher, but foliar δ15N was lower, for Mongolian oak than Dahurian larch. More important, foliar N concentration for Mongolian oak increased significantly toward the boreal forest, driven by lower mean annual temperatures and mean annual precipitation, with no significant trend observed for Dahurian larch. Additionally, foliar Δδ15N (foliar δ15N−soil δ15N) decreased significantly for Mongolian oak as it approached the boreal forest, while it increased significantly for Dahurian larch toward the temperate forest. Furthermore, the foliar N concentration, δ15N, and Δδ15N for Dahurian larch were all higher with an increasing basal area proportion of Mongolian oak. Our findings reveal contrasting patterns of foliar N nutrition between co-occurring temperate and boreal trees across a temperate-boreal forest ecotone which experiences a modest climatic gradient. These results underscore the importance of incorporating interspecific interactions to enhance our understanding of future N cycling in southern boreal forests in the context of climate warming.

Persistence, changes and robustness of nest webs along a latitudinal gradient in the Canadian boreal forest

IntroductionIn eastern Canada, the boreal forest is associated with an important latitudinal shift in forest composition and structure, which occurs in the transition between the mixed southern boreal forest and the coniferous northern boreal forest. Along this transition, upland mixedwood stands with large deciduous trees (important for cavity-dependent vertebrate species) are gradually replaced by forests with smaller conifer trees, primarily black spruce (Picea mariana). Concomitantly, the availability of lowland forests flooded by the American beaver (Castor canadensis), which can provide adequate conditions for tree-cavity users, is also decreasing.MethodsWe hypothesized that this latitudinal gradient would bring important changes in the functional diversity and network structure of vertebrate cavity-using communities. Along this latitudinal gradient we used a nest web approach to analyze the structure and robustness of networks of cavity users in upland forests and in lowland forests flooded by beavers.ResultsDespite their low availability in the northern forest region, we found that mixedwood stands persisted throughout the boreal forest in being the main drivers of nest webs network structure of upland forests whereas old black spruce stands contribution was low. In lowland forests, beaver ponds harbored nest webs with a rich and complex structure in both forest regions. Species removal simulations revealed that across our latitudinal gradient upland and lowland forest nest webs responded differently. In upland forests, the removal of trembling aspen and the Pileated Woodpecker (Dryocopus pileatus) caused the highest proportions of secondary extinctions, showing low robustness of nest webs given that these two species were highly connected to the other species. Contrastingly, nest webs in beaver ponds were more robust mainly because excavator species used a higher diversity of tree species despite the removal of the Northern Flicker (Colaptes auratus) which induced numerous secondary extinctions. The Pileated Woodpecker remained the pivotal species across the two forest regions in upland forests whereas the Northern Flicker became the main large cavity provider in beaver ponds across the latitudinal gradient.DiscussionWe discuss how mixedwood forests and beaver ponds, which are key habitat types for the cavity-using vertebrate community across our latitudinal gradient, should be maintained and protected in landscapes under industrial timber harvesting.

Boreal forest cover was reduced in the mid-Holocene with warming and recurring wildfires

The hemi-boreal zone, marking North America’s southern boreal forest boundary, has evolved post-glaciation, hosting diverse ecosystems including mixed forests with savannas, grasslands, and wetlands. While human, climate, and fire interactions shape vegetation dynamics therein, specific influences remain unclear. Here we unveil 12,000 years of hemi-boreal zone dynamics, exploring wildfire, vegetation, climate, and human population size interactions at such long time scales. Postglacial biomass burning exhibited episodes of persistent elevated activity, and a pivotal shift around 7000 years ago saw the boreal forest transition to an oak-pine barren ecosystem for about 2000 years before reverting. This mid-Holocene shift occurred during a period of more frequent burning and a sudden uptick in mean annual temperatures. Population size of Indigenous peoples mirrored wildfire fluctuations, decreasing with more frequent burning. Anticipated increases of fire activity with climate change are expected to echo transformations observed 7000 years ago, reducing boreal forest extent, and impacting land use.

A method for identifying and segmenting branches of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) trees using terrestrial laser scanning

Abstract Terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) has been adopted as a feasible technique to characterize tree stems while the characterization of trees’ branching architecture has remained less explored. In general, branching architecture refers to the spatial arrangement of branches and their characteristics that are important when exploring the eco-physiological functioning of trees or assessing tree biomass and wood quality. Our aim was to develop a point cloud processing method for identifying and segmenting individual branches from TLS point clouds. We applied a Cartesian-to-cylinder coordinate transformation and a simple morphological filtering for stem surface reconstruction and stem-branch separation. Then branch origins were identified as their intersections with the stem surface, and individual branches were segmented based on their connectivity with the branch origins. The method, implemented in MATLAB and openly available, was validated on a 0.4-ha mature and managed southern boreal forest stand. The branch identification performance was assessed based on visual interpretation of 364 randomly sampled stem sections from 100 Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris (L.)) trees that were inspected for branch identification accuracy. The results showed that the branches could only be identified up to the height where the stem could be reconstructed. For 90% of the trees, this threshold ranged between 59.3% and 81.2% relative tree heights. Branches located below this threshold were identified with a recall of 75%, a precision of 92%, and an F1-score of 0.82. Based on our study, it appears that in a managed Scots pine stand, most of the branches can be identified with the developed method for the most valuable stem part eligible for logwood. The findings obtained in this study promote the feasibility of using TLS in applications requiring detailed characterization of trees. The developed method can be further used in quantifying the characteristics of individual branches, which could be useful for biomass and wood quality assessment, for example.

Rapid migration of Mongolian oak into the southern Asian boreal forest.

The migration of trees induced by climatic warming has been observed at many alpine treelines and boreal-tundra ecotones, but the migration of temperate trees into southern boreal forest remains less well documented. We conducted a field investigation across an ecotone of temperate and boreal forests in northern Greater Khingan Mountains of northeast China. Our analysis demonstrates that Mongolian oak (Quercus mongolica), an important temperate tree species, has migrated rapidly into southern boreal forest in synchrony with significant climatic warming over the past century. The average rate of migration is estimated to be 12.0 ± 1.0 km decade-1 , being slightly slower than the movement of isotherms (14.7 ± 6.4 km decade-1 ). The migration rate of Mongolian oak is the highest observed among migratory temperate trees (average rate 4.0 ± 1.0 km decade-1 ) and significantly higher than the rates of tree migration at boreal-tundra ecotones (0.9 ± 0.4 km decade-1 ) and alpine treelines (0.004 ± 0.003 km decade-1 ). Compared with the coexisting dominant boreal tree species, Dahurian larch (Larix gmelinii), temperate Mongolian oak is observed to have significantly lower capacity for light acquisition, comparable water-use efficiency but stronger capacity to utilize nutrients especially the most limiting nutrient, nitrogen. In the context of climatic warming, and in addition to a high seed dispersal capacity and potential thermal niche differences, the advantage of nutrient utilization, reflected by foliar elementomes and stable nitrogen isotope ratios, is also likely a key mechanism for Mongolian oak to coexist with Dahurian larch and facilitate its migration toward boreal forest. These findings highlight a rapid deborealization of southern Asian boreal forest in response to climatic warming.

Logging, linear features, and human infrastructure shape the spatial dynamics of wolf predation on an ungulate neonate.

Humans are increasingly recognized as important players in predator-prey dynamics by modifying landscapes. This trend has been well-documented for large mammal communities in North American boreal forests: logging creates early seral forests that benefit ungulates such as white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), while the combination of infrastructure development and resource extraction practices generate linear features that allow predators such as wolves (Canis lupus) to travel and forage more efficiently throughout the landscape. Disturbances from recreational activities and residential development are other major sources of human activity in boreal ecosystems that may further alter wolf-ungulate dynamics. Here, we evaluate the influence that several major types of anthropogenic landscape modifications (timber harvest, linear features, and residential infrastructure) have on where and how wolves hunt ungulate neonates in a southern boreal forest ecosystem in Minnesota, USA. We demonstrate that each major anthropogenic disturbance significantly influences wolf predation of white-tailed deer fawns (n = 427 kill sites). In contrast with the "human shield hypothesis" that posits prey use human-modified areas as refuge, wolves killed fawns closer to residential buildings than expected based on spatial availability. Fawns were also killed within recently-logged areas more than expected. Concealment cover was higher at kill sites than random sites, suggesting wolves use senses other than vision, probably olfaction, to detect hidden fawns. Wolves showed strong selection for hunting along linear features, and kill sites were also closer to linear features than expected. We hypothesize that linear features facilitated wolf predation on fawns by allowing wolves to travel efficiently among high-quality prey patches (recently logged areas, near buildings), and also increase encounter rates with olfactory cues that allow them to detect hidden fawns. These findings provide novel insight into the strategies predators use to hunt ungulate neonates and the many ways human activity alters wolf-ungulate neonate predator-prey dynamics, which have remained elusive due to the challenges of locating sites where predators kill small prey. Our research has important management and conservation implications for wolf-ungulate systems subjected to anthropogenic pressures, particularly as the range of overlap between wolves and deer expands and appears to be altering food web dynamics in boreal ecosystems.

Approaching a thermal tipping point in the Eurasian boreal forest at its southern margin

Climate change is increasing the intensity and frequency of extreme heat events. Ecological responses to extreme heat will depend on vegetation physiology and thermal tolerance. Here we report that Larix sibirica, a foundation species across boreal Eurasia, is vulnerable to extreme heat at its southern range margin due to its low thermal tolerance (Tcrit of photosynthesis: ~ 37–48 °C). Projections from CMIP6 Earth System Models (ESMs) suggest that leaf temperatures might exceed the 25th percentile of Larix sibirica’s Tcrit by two to three days per year within the next two to three decades (by 2050) under high emission scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). This degree of warming will threaten the biome’s continued ability to assimilate and sequester carbon. This work highlights that under high emission trajectories we may approach an abrupt ecological tipping point in southern boreal Eurasian forests substantially sooner than ESM estimates that do not consider plant thermal tolerance traits.

Non-structural carbohydrate concentrations in contrasting dry and wet years in early- and late-successional boreal forest trees

Key messagePatterns of non-structural carbohydrate allocation in dry and wet differ between birch and larch in southern boreal forest.An increasing area of boreal forests is currently switching from temperature to drought limitation. It is not sufficiently known how the trees’ non-structural carbohydrate (NSC) pools are affected by alternating dry and wet phases in drought-prone boreal forests and how NSC concentrations are related to growth responses. In the southern boreal forests of Mongolia, NSC concentrations (including soluble sugars and starch) were determined enzymatically in the stemwood of two tree species during a drought year (2017) that was preceded by another drought in 2015 and two subsequent wet years (2018/19). Betula platyphylla as a broadleaved pioneer tree showed reduced radial stem increment in the drought year and rapidly increasing growth in the following wet years. It had low concentrations of NSC and of soluble sugars in particular, suggesting that most assimilate were invested into growth in this early successional tree. Larix sibirica as a late-successional conifer also showed reduced growth in the drought year, but lagged reductions in NSC concentrations and less pronounced growth releases than birch in 2018/19, suggesting a longer aftereffect of the drought than in birch. Larch maintained much higher NSC concentrations throughout the three studied growing seasons, including the drought episode in 2017. The NSC pool in larch was primarily formed by soluble sugars in sapwood and heartwood. In contrast to birch, larch showed a high allocation priority for assimilates in soluble sugars before investment in biomass, which explains the aftereffect of the drought on both growth and NSC. We conclude that the high soluble sugar concentrations in larch are a key determinant of the extreme drought and cold tolerance of L. sibirica and, therefore, growth has lower allocation priority for carbon compared to birch.

Postglacial establishment and expansion of marginal populations of sugar maple in western Québec, Canada: Palynological detection and interactions with fire, climate and successional processes

An isolated sugar maple ( Acer saccharum Marsh.) stand is located in the boreal forest of Abitibi, about 75 km beyond its present northern range limit. When did this relatively thermophilous tree species establish after ice retreat? Were its populations more abundant than now sometimes in the past? If so, when and how did they expand then retracted? How did the species persist in boreal forest over time? What could have been the role of fire on this stand? To answer those questions, we reconstructed the postglacial fire and vegetation history from three lacustrine sediment sequences distributed along a c. 180 km latitudinal transect from southern boreal forests to the northern portion of deciduous forests. From north to south, those are lakes Labelle, Chasseur and Fur. We explored a procedure based on pollen accumulation rates in order to detect the probable presence of sugar maple within the lakes’ watershed. The procedure successfully indicates a sugar maple establishment c. 7800–5100 cal. BP at Fur, 5500–4400 cal. BP at Chasseur and c. 4000–2700 cal. BP at Labelle, in the north. At Fur, the subsequent sugar maple expansion happened 1 to 2 thousand years after establishment, during colder and moister climatic conditions favoring Pinus strobus L. replacement by Betula spp. c. 6000–5000 cal. BP. Sugar maple establishment, persistence or expansion is apparently not linked to a change in fire activity at Fur and Chasseur, but at Labelle, the species was more abundant during periods of shorter fire return intervals from 2000 to 500 years ago. Our study suggests that northern (Chasseur and Labelle) sugar maple establishment and possible expansion was probably more controlled by a complex interaction of inhibition and facilitation dynamics than by climate alone, a process reliant on the dominant vegetation’s composition and structure.

Assessing hydrological sensitivity to future climate change over the Canadian southern boreal forest

This study develops a physically based hydrological process model using the Cold Region Hydrological Modelling (CRHM) platform to simulate the water budget storages and fluxes over the Canadian southern boreal forest (SBF). Evaluation of the CRHM-based model in a well-gauged SBF basin, White Gull Creek (WGC), Saskatchewan, Canada, indicated quite good performance in reproducing historical observations of streamflow, snow water equivalent (SWE), evapotranspiration (ET) and soil moisture without parameter calibration from streamflow. The entire SBF was then evenly divided into 2243 virtual basins, each of which was structured and parameterized with the same land cover, soil and hydrological parameters as the WGC basin, but with local latitude and topography in order to examine the sensitivity of governing hydrological processes to future climate variability and perturbation. Hydrological sensitivity in the virtual basins was assessed by examining the differences between hydrological simulations driven by 4-km gridded convection-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) outputs in the current period (ctrl, 2001–2013) and a Pseudo Global Warming period (pgw, 2087–2099). The WRF simulation in the pgw period was forced by a perturbation of the same boundary conditions from ERA reanalysis data as for the ctrl period, and the perturbation was based on the ensemble-mean of projected changes from the CMIP5 RCP 8.5 emission scenario. Results showed that temperature would increase by 4.5℃ to 7℃ over the SBF but increases in annual precipitation of 15–24% would more than compensate for the effects of warming on runoff generation and result in greater streamflow volumes. Annual streamflow volumes would increase by 64 mm (35%) and 95 mm (16%) in the west and east, and by 48 mm (17%) in the central SBF. Annual snowfall and maximum SWE would decrease by 89–109 mm (∼29%) in the east, 3–8 mm (∼6%) in the west, and 31–50 mm (∼20%) in the central SBF. Annual mean soil moisture storage would decrease by 54–56 mm (27%) in the west and central, and by only 37 mm (14%) in the east SBF. Decreases in soil moisture would be caused by reduced soil freezing and enhanced thawing under future warming which would increase soil water loss from ET, subsurface runoff and percolation into groundwater storage. The larger sensitivity of streamflow and snow processes in the east SBF is partly due to the wetter climate and the larger increase in annual precipitation, the later also buffered the sensitivity of soil moisture to warming. These results show that the SBF would switch to a higher water yield region, dominated by rainfall-runoff fed streamflow over a longer snow-free season, and provide first-order guidance for sustainable water management of the SBF in the future.

Poleward migration of tropical cyclones induced severe disturbance of boreal forest above 50°

With global warming, tropical cyclones (TCs) are moving to northern latitudes with devastating effects on boreal forests and significant ecological and socioeconomic consequences in the northern hemisphere. Recently, TCs disturbances have been documented in the northern temperate and even the southern boreal forest zone. Here we report and quantify the impact of TC Lingling (2019), which damaged the boreal forests >50° latitude in a remote area of Sakhalin Island, Northeast Asia. A multi-step algorithm was used to identify disturbed forested areas together with Sentinel-2 imagery to recognize windthrow patches caused by TCs and evaluate tree species composition. We found extensive damage to boreal forests caused by TC Lingling, with forested area losses of >80 km2. The affected areas mainly belonged to zonal dark coniferous forests, which account for 54 km2 of windthrows. In contrast, a lower impact was recorded in deciduous broadleaf and larch forests. TC Lingling caused a high proportion (>50 %) of large gaps (>10 ha), however, gaps of such extent have not been previously recorded in these dark coniferous forests. Hence, our study highlights the potential of TCs as the new disturbance agent responsible for extensive disturbances of boreal forests at more northern latitudes than previously thought. This implies the significant role of TCs in disturbance regimes and boreal forest dynamics. We suggest that continued poleward migration of TCs may lead to an unprecedentedly large area of disturbed boreal forests resulting in complex changes in diversity and ecosystem functioning. Our findings are crucial for identifying potential shifts in boreal forest structure and dynamics under ongoing global climate change and altered forest disturbance regimes.

Climatic control of high-resolution stem radius changes in a drought-limited southern boreal forest

Key messageStem radius changes measured at high temporal resolution in a drought-limited southern boreal forest were primarily related to soil temperature and partly soil moisture variation, but only weakly to VPD.Forest productivity at the southern fringe of the boreal forest biome in Inner Asia is strongly drought-limited, as is evident from dendrochronological analyses. Using electronic point dendrometers, we studied the climate response of stem radius changes at high temporal resolution (10-min intervals) in a mixed larch–birch forest in northern Mongolia in a drought year and two subsequent moist years. Larch trees showed stronger stem radius fluctuations than birches, and this difference was more pronounced in dry than in moist years. Stem radius changes were most tightly related to soil temperature variation, while soil moisture was the dominant controlling factor only in birch in the dry year. Correlations with the atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and even more so with air temperature, were much weaker. While the linkage between radius change and VPD might primarily reflect diurnal transpiration-driven stem shrinkage and expansion, soil temperature is thought to directly affect cambial cell division and elongation during wood formation. We conclude that the phenology of stemwood increment is strongly controlled by soil temperature even in drought-limited southern boreal forests under continental climate due to the combination of cold and dry climate.

Comparison of behaviors of black bears with and without habituation to humans and supplemental research feeding

Abstract Humans interact with wildlife regularly, mostly without conflict. Interactions between humans and bears, however, have a history of conflict. Using data from female black bears in two populations, we compared behaviors related to a series of hypotheses about habituation and food supplementation via research feeding. We livetrapped bears in the southern boreal forests and cove forests of the Pisgah National Forest, North Carolina, in barrel traps or modified leg-hold snares and outfitted them with very high frequency (VHF) transmitters, for 95 bear-years of data. In the southern boreal forests of Superior National Forest, Minnesota, we habituated bears and outfitted them with VHF collars supplemented with GPS units, for 42 bear-years. Some human residents of the Superior study area fed local black bears and we established a research feeding site. Bears in both populations avoided roads and habituated: Superior bears avoided houses where they were not fed; the study site for Pisgah bears (no habituation or feeding) had too few houses to test for avoidance. Bears in both populations gained weight faster during their active seasons when wild foods were abundant. Habituated, supplemented Superior bears averaged a smaller proportion of a day active, longer activity bouts, and less sinuous movements than did not-habituated or supplemented Pisgah bears. The bears in the two populations did not differ with respect to distances traveled per 2 h or mean lengths of activity bouts. The abundance of wild foods affected time active, distance traveled, and sinuosity of travel by not-habituated or supplemented Pisgah bears. Females in breeding condition in both populations were more active, had longer activity bouts, traveled further, and had more linear travel in spring and early summer while females with cubs pushed these activities into late summer and autumn. This timing pattern for bout length, distance moved, and sinuosity was less pronounced for habituated and research-fed Superior bears than for not-habituated or supplemented Pisgah bears. Thus, habituation to a small number of researchers appeared to not affect many behaviors of bears in our habituated and research-fed Superior population; research feeding appeared to affect some behaviors in a manner consistent with a food supply that had low annual variance. Because we have samples of one for each treatment (one site with habituation and feeding, one site without), our results do not establish that differences documented between the populations were caused by the differences in habituation and feeding. The effects of habituation, research feeding, or other forms of food supplementation on backcountry behaviors of black bears need broader testing across the range of black bears.

Respiratory loss during late-growing season determines the net carbon dioxide sink in northern permafrost regions.

Warming of northern high latitude regions (NHL, > 50 °N) has increased both photosynthesis and respiration which results in considerable uncertainty regarding the net carbon dioxide (CO2) balance of NHL ecosystems. Using estimates constrained from atmospheric observations from 1980 to 2017, we find that the increasing trends of net CO2 uptake in the early-growing season are of similar magnitude across the tree cover gradient in the NHL. However, the trend of respiratory CO2 loss during late-growing season increases significantly with increasing tree cover, offsetting a larger fraction of photosynthetic CO2 uptake, and thus resulting in a slower rate of increasing annual net CO2 uptake in areas with higher tree cover, especially in central and southern boreal forest regions. The magnitude of this seasonal compensation effect explains the difference in net CO2 uptake trends along the NHL vegetation- permafrost gradient. Such seasonal compensation dynamics are not captured by dynamic global vegetation models, which simulate weaker respiration control on carbon exchange during the late-growing season, and thus calls into question projections of increasing net CO2 uptake as high latitude ecosystems respond to warming climate conditions.

A climate risk analysis of Earth's forests in the 21st century.

Earth's forests harbor extensive biodiversity and are currently a major carbon sink. Forest conservation and restoration can help mitigate climate change; however, climate change could fundamentally imperil forests in many regions and undermine their ability to provide such mitigation. The extent of climate risks facing forests has not been synthesized globally nor have different approaches to quantifying forest climate risks been systematically compared. We combine outputs from multiple mechanistic and empirical approaches to modeling carbon, biodiversity, and disturbance risks to conduct a synthetic climate risk analysis for Earth's forests in the 21st century. Despite large uncertainty in most regions we find that some forests are consistently at higher risk, including southern boreal forests and those in western North America and parts of the Amazon.

Even modest climate change may lead to major transitions in boreal forests.

The sensitivity of forests to near-term warming and associated precipitation shifts remains uncertain1-9. Herein, using a 5-year open-air experiment in southern boreal forest, we show divergent responses to modest climate alteration among juveniles of nine co-occurring North American tree species. Warming alone (+1.6 °C or +3.1 °C above ambient temperature) or combined with reduced rainfall increased the juvenile mortality of all species, especially boreal conifers. Species differed in growth responses to warming, ranging from enhanced growth in Acer rubrum and Acer saccharum to severe growth reductions in Abies balsamea, Picea glauca and Pinus strobus. Moreover, treatment-induced changes in both photosynthesis and growth help explain treatment-driven changes in survival. Treatments in which species experienced conditions warmer or drier than at their range margins resulted in the most adverse impacts on growth and survival. Species abundant in southern boreal forests had the largest reductions in growth and survival due to climate manipulations. By contrast, temperate species that experienced little mortality and substantial growth enhancement in response to warming are rare throughout southern boreal forest and unlikely to rapidly expand their density and distribution. Therefore, projected climate change will probably cause regeneration failure of currently dominant southern boreal species and, coupled with their slow replacement by temperate species, lead to tree regeneration shortfalls with potential adverse impacts on the health, diversity and ecosystem services of regional forests.

Microclimate temperature variations from boreal forests to the tundra

Microclimate varies greatly over short horizontal and vertical distances, and timescales. This multi-level heterogeneity influences terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem functions by determining the ambient environment where organisms live in. Fine-scale heterogeneity in microclimate temperatures is driven by local topography, land and water cover, snow, and soil characteristics. However, their relative influence over boreal and tundra biomes and in different seasons, has not been comprehensively quantified. Here, we aim to (1) quantify temperature variations measured at three heights: soil (-6 cm), near-surface (15 cm) and air (150 cm), and (2) determine the relative influence of the environmental variables in driving thermal variability. We measured temperature at 446 sites within seven focus areas covering large macroclimatic, topographic, and ecosystem gradients (tundra, mires, forests) of northern Europe. Our data, consisting of over 60 million temperature readings during the study period of 2019/11–2020/10, reveal substantial thermal variability within and across the focus areas. Near-surface temperatures in the tundra showed the greatest instantaneous differences within a given focus area (32.3 °C) while the corresponding differences for soil temperatures ranged from 10.0 °C (middle boreal forest) to 27.1 °C (tundra). Instantaneous differences in wintertime air temperatures were the largest in the tundra (up to 25.6°C, median 4.2 °C), while in summer the differences were largest in the southern boreal forest (13.1°C, median 4.8°C). Statistical analyses indicate that monthly-aggregated temperature variations in boreal forests are closely linked to water bodies, wetlands, and canopy cover, whereas in the tundra, variation was linked to elevation, topographic solar radiation, and snow cover. The results provide new understanding on the magnitude of microclimate temperature variability and its seasonal drivers and will help to project local impacts of climate change on boreal forest and tundra ecosystems.

Tropical cyclones moving into boreal forests: Relationships between disturbance areas and environmental drivers

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are common disturbance agents in tropical and subtropical latitudes. With global warming, TCs began to move to northern latitudes, with devastating effects on boreal forests. However, it remains unclear where and when these extraordinary events occur and how they affect forest structure and ecosystem functioning. Hence knowing which geomorphological features, landforms, and forest types are most susceptible to severe wind disturbance is vital to better predict the future impacts of intensifying tropical cyclones on boreal forests. In October 2015, catastrophic TC Dujuan hit the island of Sakhalin in the Russian Far East. With a wind speed of 63 m·s−1, it became the strongest wind recorded in Sakhalin, damaging >42,000 ha of native forests with different levels of severity. We used high-resolution RGB satellite images, DEM-derived geomorphological patterns, and the U-Net-like convolutional neural network to quantify the damaged area in specific landform, forest type, and windthrow patch size categories. We found that large gaps (>1 ha) represent >40 % of the damaged area while small gaps (<0.1 ha) only 20 %. The recorded canopy gaps are very large for the southern boreal forest. We found that the aspect (slope exposure) is the most important in explaining the damaged area, followed by canopy closure and landform type. Closed-canopy coniferous forests on steep, west-facing slopes (typical of convex reliefs such as ridges, spurs, and peaks) are at a much higher risk of being disturbed by TCs than open-canopy mountain birch forests or coniferous forests and broadleaved riparian forests in concave reliefs such as valley bottoms. We suggest that the projected ongoing poleward migration of TCs will lead to an unprecedentedly large area of disturbed forest, which results in complex changes in forest dynamics and ecosystem functioning. Our findings are crucial for the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies under future changes in TC activity.