Poleward migration of tropical cyclones induced severe disturbance of boreal forest above 50°

Abstract

With global warming, tropical cyclones (TCs) are moving to northern latitudes with devastating effects on boreal forests and significant ecological and socioeconomic consequences in the northern hemisphere. Recently, TCs disturbances have been documented in the northern temperate and even the southern boreal forest zone. Here we report and quantify the impact of TC Lingling (2019), which damaged the boreal forests >50° latitude in a remote area of Sakhalin Island, Northeast Asia. A multi-step algorithm was used to identify disturbed forested areas together with Sentinel-2 imagery to recognize windthrow patches caused by TCs and evaluate tree species composition. We found extensive damage to boreal forests caused by TC Lingling, with forested area losses of >80 km2. The affected areas mainly belonged to zonal dark coniferous forests, which account for 54 km2 of windthrows. In contrast, a lower impact was recorded in deciduous broadleaf and larch forests. TC Lingling caused a high proportion (>50 %) of large gaps (>10 ha), however, gaps of such extent have not been previously recorded in these dark coniferous forests. Hence, our study highlights the potential of TCs as the new disturbance agent responsible for extensive disturbances of boreal forests at more northern latitudes than previously thought. This implies the significant role of TCs in disturbance regimes and boreal forest dynamics. We suggest that continued poleward migration of TCs may lead to an unprecedentedly large area of disturbed boreal forests resulting in complex changes in diversity and ecosystem functioning. Our findings are crucial for identifying potential shifts in boreal forest structure and dynamics under ongoing global climate change and altered forest disturbance regimes.