Southern Africa Region Research Articles

Improving early warning of drought-driven food insecurity in southern Africa using operational hydrological monitoring and forecasting products

Abstract. The region of southern Africa (SA) has a fragile food economy and is vulnerable to frequent droughts. Interventions to mitigate food insecurity impacts require early warning of droughts – preferably as early as possible before the harvest season (typically starting in April) and lean season (typically starting in November). Hydrologic monitoring and forecasting systems provide a unique opportunity to support early warning efforts, since they can provide regular updates on available root-zone soil moisture (RZSM), a critical variable for crop yield, and provide forecasts of RZSM by combining the estimates of antecedent soil moisture conditions with climate forecasts. For SA, this study documents the predictive capabilities of RZSM products from the recently developed NASA Hydrological Forecasting and Analysis System (NHyFAS). Results show that the NHyFAS products would have identified the regional severe drought event – which peaked during December–February of 2015–2016 – at least as early as 1 November 2015. Next, it is shown that during 1982–2016, February RZSM (Feb-RZSM) forecasts (monitoring product) available in early November (early March) have a correlation of 0.49 (0.79) with the detrended regional crop yield. It is also found that when the February RZSM forecast (monitoring product) available in early November (early March) is indicated to be in the lowest tercile, the detrended regional crop yield is below normal about two-thirds of the time (always), at least over the sample years considered. Additionally, it is shown that the February RZSM forecast (monitoring product) can provide “out-of-sample” crop yield forecasts with comparable (substantially better with 40 % reduction in mean error) skill to December–February ENSO. These results indicate that the NHyFAS products can effectively support food insecurity early warning in the SA region. Finally, since a framework similar to NHyFAS can be used to provide RZSM monitoring and forecasting products over other regions of the globe, this case study also demonstrates potential for supporting food insecurity early warning globally.

High-resolution geochemical records of extreme drought in southeastern Africa during the past 7000 years

The magnitude and frequency of extreme events is projected to increase under future climate change and understanding the major drivers of global climate variability is dependent on the development of detailed records from critical regions. Subtropical Africa is known to have undergone phases of significant change resulting from variations in broad-scale atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns, but the nature and cause for these variations remain intensely debated. Here we present a highly resolved sedimentary record from the eastern margin of South Africa to reconstruct hydroclimate in southeast Africa over the past 7000 years. Stratigraphic and inorganic proxies preserve a highly sensitive record that document dramatic shifts in moisture balance, with phases of severe drought recorded at 4700–4200 and 3700–2600 cal yr BP. We suggest that pronounced hydroclimate variability observed in the Mkhuze record was likely triggered by changes in the activity of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which acted to control the transport of moisture from the Indian Ocean across southeast Africa. We show that rapid shifts in moisture availability were a characteristic feature of mid-late Holocene climate across the summer rainfall region of southern Africa, with these events broadly anti-phased with hydroclimatic shifts in East Africa and northwest Madagascar. These findings suggest that evaluating drought frequency, ecological risk and food security within the region is likely to be closely tied to ENSO and its response to future global warming.

Mountains of the Mist: A first plant checklist for the Bvumba Mountains, Manica Highlands (Zimbabwe-Mozambique).

The first comprehensive plant checklist for the Bvumba massif, situated in the Manica Highlands along the Zimbabwe-Mozambique border, is presented. Although covering only 276 km2, the flora is rich with 1250 taxa (1127 native taxa and 123 naturalised introductions). There is a high proportion of Orchidaceae and Pteridophyta, with both groups showing a higher richness than for adjacent montane areas, which may be due to the massif’s relatively high moisture levels as a result of frequent cloud cover. However, in contrast to other mesic montane regions in southern Africa, there are relatively few near-endemic or range-restricted taxa: there is only one local endemic, Aeranthes africana, an epiphytic forest orchid. This is likely to be an effect of the massif having limited natural grassland compared to forest, the former being the most endemic-rich habitat in southern African mountains outside of the Fynbos Biome. Six other near-endemic taxa with limited distribution in this portion of the Manica Highlands are highlighted. The high number of invasive species is probably a result of diverse human activities in the area. The main species of concern are Acacia melanoxylon, a tree that is invading grassland and previously cultivated land, the forest herb Hedychium gardnerianum which in places is transforming forest understorey with an adverse effect on some forest birds, and the woody herb Vernonanthura polyanthes which invades cleared forest areas after fire. Future botanical work in the massif should focus on a more detailed exploration of the poorly known Serra Vumba on the Mozambican side and on the drier western slopes. This will allow for a more detailed analysis of patterns of endemism across the Manica Highlands.

The recent colonization history of the most widespread Podocarpus tree species in Afromontane forests.

Afromontane forests host a unique biodiversity distributed in isolated high-elevation habitats within a matrix of rain forests or savannahs, yet they share a remarkable flora that raises questions about past connectivity between currently isolated forests. Here, we focused on the Podocarpus latifolius-P. milanjianus complex (Podocarpaceae), the most widely distributed conifers throughout sub-Saharan African highlands, to infer its demographic history from genetic data. We sequenced the whole plastid genome, mitochondrial DNA regions and nuclear ribosomal DNA of 88 samples from Cameroon to Angola in western Central Africa and from Kenya to the Cape region in eastern and southern Africa to reconstruct time-calibrated phylogenies and perform demographic inferences. We show that P. latifolius and P. milanjianus form a single species, whose lineages diverged during the Pleistocene, mostly between approx, 200 000 and 300 000 years BP, after which they underwent a wide range expansion leading to their current distributions. Confronting phylogenomic and palaeoecological data, we argue that the species originated in East Africa and reached the highlands of the Atlantic side of Africa through two probable latitudinal migration corridors: a northern one towards the Cameroon volcanic line, and a southern one towards Angola. Although the species is now rare in large parts of its range, no demographic decline was detected, probably because it occurred too recently to have left a genetic signature in our DNA sequences. Despite the ancient and highly fluctuating history of podocarps in Africa revealed by palaeobotanical records, the extended distribution of current P. latifolius/milanjianus lineages is shown to result from a more recent history, mostly during the mid-late Pleistocene, when Afromontane forests were once far more widespread and continuous.

Potential distributions of Bacillus anthracis and Bacillus cereus biovar anthracis causing anthrax in Africa.

BackgroundBacillus cereus biovar anthracis (Bcbva) is an emergent bacterium closely related to Bacillus anthracis, the etiological agent of anthrax. The latter has a worldwide distribution and usually causes infectious disease in mammals associated with savanna ecosystems. Bcbva was identified in humid tropical forests of Côte d’Ivoire in 2001. Here, we characterize the potential geographic distributions of Bcbva in West Africa and B. anthracis in sub-Saharan Africa using an ecological niche modeling approach.Methodology/Principal findingsGeoreferenced occurrence data for B. anthracis and Bcbva were obtained from public data repositories and the scientific literature. Combinations of temperature, humidity, vegetation greenness, and soils values served as environmental variables in model calibrations. To predict the potential distribution of suitable environments for each pathogen across the study region, parameter values derived from the median of 10 replicates of the best-performing model for each pathogen were used. We found suitable environments predicted for B. anthracis across areas of confirmed and suspected anthrax activity in sub-Saharan Africa, including an east-west corridor from Ethiopia to Sierra Leone in the Sahel region and multiple areas in eastern, central, and southern Africa. The study area for Bcbva was restricted to West and Central Africa to reflect areas that have likely been accessible to Bcbva by dispersal. Model predicted values indicated potential suitable environments within humid forested environments. Background similarity tests in geographic space indicated statistical support to reject the null hypothesis of similarity when comparing environments associated with B. anthracis to those of Bcbva and when comparing humidity values and soils values individually. We failed to reject the null hypothesis of similarity when comparing environments associated with Bcbva to those of B. anthracis, suggesting that additional investigation is needed to provide a more robust characterization of the Bcbva niche.Conclusions/SignificanceThis study represents the first time that the environmental and geographic distribution of Bcbva has been mapped. We document likely differences in ecological niche—and consequently in geographic distribution—between Bcbva and typical B. anthracis, and areas of possible co-occurrence between the two. We provide information crucial to guiding and improving monitoring efforts focused on these pathogens.

Fabric Analysis and Chronology at Ga-Mohana Hill North Rockshelter, Southern Kalahari Basin: Evidence for In Situ, Stratified Middle and Later Stone Age Deposits

Over the last few decades, investigations of the southern African Late Pleistocene archeological record have transformed our understanding of Homo sapiens origins and evolution. However, the intensity of research on coastal and near-coastal records has surpassed that in the deep interior. One reason for the geographic bias is the rarity of well-preserved, datable rockshelter sites outside the more mountainous and karstic regions of South Africa. Here, we report stratified Middle Stone Age and Later Stone Age deposits at Ga-Mohana Hill North Rockshelter (GHN), near Kuruman, in the Northern Cape, South Africa. Contrary to a previous report, we show that the archeological deposits are in good context with minimal disturbance based on a detailed fabric analysis of plotted finds. Three dating methods, single-grain optically stimulated luminescence, radiocarbon, and uranium-thorium, indicate that the artifact-bearing deposits date to ~ 105 ka, ~ 31 ka, and ~ 15 ka. Thus, Ga-Mohana Hill North Rockshelter provides an important opportunity to investigate early human adaptation in this semiarid region of southern Africa.

The use of indigenous games in the teaching and learning of Mathematics

Indigenous games play an important role in various communities. Despite research indicating that these games can be used to advance and create a connection between classroom activities and the real life contexts, the connection has not been explored adequately to make this a reality in many mathematics classrooms. This Article reports on the various indigenous games that are a feature in South Africa as well as the Southern Africa region. The Article identifies a number of indigenous games that are popular in South Africa and how such games have been used to promote cultural heritage. This article also discusses examples of the use of such games in the process of teaching and learning of mathematics in schools.

Understanding the mechanisms driving the spread of subtype C HIV-1.

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) subtype C (C-HIV) is the most prevalent form of HIV-1 globally, accounting for approximately 50% of infections worldwide. C-HIV is the predominant and near-exclusive subtype in the low resource regions of India and Southern Africa. Given the vast diversity of HIV-1 subtypes, it is curious as to why C-HIV constitutes such a large proportion of global infections. This enriched prevalence may be due to phenotypic differences between C-HIV isolates and other viral strains that permit enhanced transmission efficiency or, pathogenicity, or might due to the socio-demographics of the regions where C-HIV is endemic. Here, we compare the mechanisms of C-HIV pathogenesis to less prominent HIV-1 subtypes, including viral genetic and phenotypic characteristics, and host genetic variability, to understand whether evolutionary factors drove C-HIV to predominance.

<p><strong>Genetic diversity and species limits in <em>Veltheimia</em> (Asparagaceae: Scilloideae): insights from noncoding cpDNA sequence data</strong></p>

Veltheimia is a genus of two species of bulbous flowering angiosperms restricted to southern Africa. Both parsimony and Bayesian analysis of 1829 nucleotides of DNA sequence data, from three non-coding chloroplast regions from multiple samples of both species, indicates that specimens of V. bracteata form a monophyletic clade together with three specimens named as V. capensis. This clade receives low support and is embedded within a paraphyletic grade of specimens of V. capensis. A Median Joining Network analysis of a subset of samples revealed nine haplotypes, the relationships of which mirrored the relationships resolved by the Bayesian analysis. With the exception of the V. capensis members of the V. bracteata clade, the remaining specimens are from the summer rainfall thicket and coastal forests. The samples of the basal V. capensis grade are found in the winter rainfall regions of southern Africa. These results indicate that there is limited genetic diversity within the genus, and there is no clear distinction between these two species based on plastid non-coding DNA data. This may be due to their recent divergence and incomplete lineage sorting, or recent or ongoing hybridisation and / or introgression.

The Effects of Climate on South African Livelihoods

Climate variability affects countries, regions, communities, and individuals for extended periods of time--- in most cases the climate in question has been varying for many centuries. In the southern region of Africa, climate variability has become commonplace (Morton, 2007). With fluctuating amounts of precipitation, from droughts to floods, the livelihoods of farmers and small-share agriculturists are challenged each season due to lack of knowledge and unpredictability. Low yields lead to higher prices within markets, effecting all growers and consumers within the region. Lack of information and understanding both on the scientific and civilian sides of climate variability leads to hardships both ecologically and economically. South Africa, Kenya, and Lesotho have been noted as countries with the most variable climates. These countries are reliant on subsistence farming and agriculture, meaning that most of their food resources are attained from what farmers are able to produce with the available resources. This work discusses how climate variability effects crop growth in three unique areas of Africa.

Drought Manifested by Climate Change is Expanding Poverty in Southern Africa Region

Sustaining of life is mostly relying on availability of food (reserves) near living zones at globally. Recent consequences of local weather conditions are tumbling Production of agricultural crops or food reserves. This is because of uncertainty in temperature and environmental conditions. Global climate is changing excessively, influence the affect on agriculture and food supply chain in many other ways in many countries and lead to poverty and socioeconomic conditions. All climate reports predicting a rising trend of temperature will continue year by year and excess chemical intensity limits in grains, which further severely brunt the health conditions of children, women and old age groups. By 2100, a rise of 1.8 to 4°C is expected severe impact of droughts and floods occur and reverse the ecological system, effects on human health, economic growth and inequality of life systems. Past many years South Africa facing adverse impacts of climate change patterns on their agricultural lands and farmers as usual to block their ways of employment and wealth of their life. Crop failures, Productivity, Food insecurity, Famine, Loss of property and Life, Migration, and reversing economic growth with unethical climate change. This paper dignifies the climate change patterns and influences on the agriculture and poverty around South Africa for achieving their “Sustainable development Goals (SDGs).

Phylogeography, genetic diversity, and population structure of Nile crocodile populations at the fringes of the southern African distribution.

Nile crocodiles are apex predators widely distributed in sub-Saharan Africa that have been viewed and managed as a single species. A complex picture of broad and fine-scale phylogeographic patterns that includes the recognition of two species (Crocodylus niloticus and Crocodylus suchus), and the structuring of populations according to river basins has started to emerge. However, previous studies surveyed a limited number of samples and geographical regions, and large areas of the continent remained unstudied. This work aimed at a fine scale portrait of Nile crocodile populations at the fringes of their geographic distribution in southern Africa. Wild and captive individuals were sampled across four major river systems (Okavango, Lower Kunene, Lower Shire and Limpopo) and the KwaZulu-Natal region. A multi-marker approach was used to infer phylogeographic and genetic diversity patterns, including new and public mitochondrial data, and a panel of 11 nuclear microsatellites. All individuals belonged to a phylogenetic clade previously associated with the C. niloticus species, thus suggesting the absence of C. suchus in southern Africa. The distribution of mitochondrial haplotypes indicated ancestral genetic connectivity across large areas, with loss of diversity along the north-south axis. Genetic variation partitioned the populations primarily into western and eastern regions of southern Africa, and secondarily into the major river systems. Populations were partitioned into five main groups corresponding to the Lower Kunene, the Okavango, the Lower Shire, and the Limpopo rivers, and the KwaZulu-Natal coastal region. All groups show evidence of recent bottlenecks and small effective population sizes. Long-term genetic diversity is likely to be compromised, raising conservation concern. These results emphasize the need for local genetic assessment of wild populations of Nile crocodiles to inform strategies for management of the species in southern Africa.

Growth Impact of Foreign Direct Investment in the COMESA Region: Does Infrastructure Development Matter?

Using country-level panel data, this study investigates the impact of foreign direct investment on the gross domestic product per capita in the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa region over the 2000-2015 period. The estimates are generated using the one-step generalized method of a moments-difference estimator. The study found that foreign direct investment exerted a negative while quality development of infrastructure has a positive impact on economic growth in the region. In addition, the quality development of infrastructure has a positive effect on the ability of the region to absorb and benefit from the spillovers of foreign direct investment. The findings suggest that the states of the region should target to attract foreign direct investment which complements economic growth and improve the quality development of infrastructure so as to realize positive economic growth from the investment.

Late Pleistocene human occupation in the Maloti-Drakensberg region of southern Africa: New radiocarbon dates from Rose Cottage Cave and inter-site comparisons

Rose Cottage Cave, near Lesotho’s western border with South Africa, is a rare archive of late Pleistocene hunter-gatherer behavioural variability in a montane environment, a setting that is poorly represented in regional ethnographic archives. Here, we present an updated chronology for the site based on high-resolution AMS radiocarbon dates and Bayesian and Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) methods. We draw on broader anthropological approaches to lithic evidence and behavioural modelling to test hypotheses about hunter-gatherer provisioning and mobility systems across the Maloti-Drakensberg Escarpment environmental transect. We compare the modelled ages and stone tool evidence from Rose Cottage Cave to other well-dated archaeological sequences in the region, including the comparably well-dated site of Sehonghong in highland Lesotho, as well as Ha Makotoko, Ntloana Tšoana, and Strathalan sites A and B. These comparisons reveal differences in the organization of lithic technologies and activity traces across the region, which can be explained by a combination of responses in hunter-gatherer mobility to local environmental gradients and climate shifts during the climatically variable late Pleistocene. Our results shed light on the relationship between patterns of behavioural change and palaeoenvironmental variability in southeastern southern Africa specifically, and on hunter-gatherer behavioural variability in montane environments more generally.

Students’ Perceived Priorities on Water as a Human Right, Natural Resource, and Multiple Goods

As often noted, water is one of the most critical natural resources in the world—one we must take care of so that future generations can enjoy safe water. This study specifically explores university-level water and environmental students’ views on perceived priorities on water. The recent debate on water policy and its complexity is first reviewed, followed by a study on how students perceived water through six predetermined criteria. Interactive learning events (n = 241) were arranged worldwide in 2011–2015 in seven countries and one region: Finland, Latvia, South Africa, Brazil, Mexico, Sri Lanka, USA, and Southern Africa region. The relative distribution of the criteria totaling 100% were as follows: Basic human right 31%, natural resource 25%, economic good 15%, public and social good both 11%, and cultural good 7%. The views did not substantially differentiate despite the different socio-economic conditions. Yet, basic human right should be interpreted wisely remembering environmental, economic, and other realities. Here, the target group consisted of water and environmental students, and it would be very interesting to conduct a comparative study among students in other fields (sociology, economics, etc.). On the whole, we should further analyze the value of water and its priorities to make it easier to manage water resources in the future.

Anticipating white‐nose syndrome in the Southern Hemisphere: Widespread conditions favourable toPseudogymnoascus destructanspose a serious risk to Australia's bat fauna

AbstractThere is a serious concern that white‐nose syndrome (WNS), a fungal disease causing severe population declines in North American bats, could soon threaten bats on the Australian continent. Despite an ‘almost certain' risk of incursion within the next ten years, and high virulence in naïve bat populations, we remain uncertain about the vulnerability of Australian bats toWNS. In this study, we intersected occurrences for the 27 cave roosting bat species in Australia with interpolated data on mean annual surface temperature, which provides a proxy for thermal conditions within a cave and hence its suitability for growth by the fungal pathogenPseudogymnoascus destructans. Our analysis identifies favourable roost thermal conditions within 30–100% of the ranges of eight bat species across south‐eastern Australia, including for seven species already listed as threatened with extinction. These results demonstrate the potential for widespread exposure toP. destructansand suggest thatWNScould pose a serious risk to the conservation of Australia's bat fauna. The impacts of exposure toP. destructanswill depend, however, on the sensitivity of bats to developingWNS, and a more comprehensive vulnerability assessment is currently prevented by a lack of information on the hibernation biology of Australian bats. Thus, given the clear potential for widespread exposure of Australia's bats toP. destructansdemonstrated by our study, two specific policy actions seem justified: (i) urgent implementation of border controls that identify and decontaminate cave‐associated fomites and (ii) dedicated funding to enable research on key aspects of bat winter behaviour and hibernation physiology. Further, as accidental translocation of this fungus could also pose a risk to other naïve bat faunas in cooler regions of southern Africa and South America, we argue that a proactive, globally coordinated approach is required to understand and mitigate the potential impacts ofWNSspreading to Southern Hemisphere bats.

Levantamiento de los recursos turísticos de la provincia del Cuando Cubango para apoyar el desarrollo local

Este estudio fue desarrollado en la Provincia de Cuando Cubango, en Angola, una región de África Austral con fuertes e intransponibles potenciales endógenos para desarrollarse a partir del uso racional del paisaje de su flora y fauna. El objetivo principal fue conseguir información necesaria para apoyar el diseño de estrategias para la promoción del turismo local. La recolección de datos fue hecha por el autor a lo largo de 6 años, tomando como base de la investigación el turismo en áreas naturales. Se ha levantado información sobre los recursos turísticos asociados a las especies animales y la fauna silvestre; la diversidad de la flora; el patrimonio histórico-cultural y las infraestructuras necesarias para fomentar el turismo. se eligieron 4 municipios de los nueve que la Provincia del Cuando Cubango posee, en particular: Menongue, Cuchi, Cuito Cuanavale y Dírico, donde se identificaron y caracterizaron 45 locales para la realización del turismo de naturaleza; 2 principales especies florísticas únicas en la región austral de África: el Mussivi y el Girassonde; 4 principales animales salvajes el León, Elefante, Hipopótamo y Búfalo, faltando confirmar la existencia del Rinoceronte.

Dive behaviour and foraging effort of female Cape fur seals Arctocephalus pusillus pusillus.

While marine top predators can play a critical role in ecosystem structure and dynamics through their effects on prey populations, how the predators function in this role is often not well understood. In the Benguela region of southern Africa, the Cape fur seal (Arctocephalus pusillus pusillus) population constitutes the largest marine top predator biomass, but little is known of its foraging ecology other than its diet and some preliminary dive records. Dive information was obtained from 32 adult females instrumented with dive recorders at the Kleinsee colony (29°34.17′ S, 16°59.80′ E) in South Africa during 2006–2008. Most dives were in the depth range of epipelagic prey species (less than 50 m deep) and at night, reflecting the reliance of Cape fur seals on small, vertically migrating, schooling prey. However, most females also performed benthic dives, and benthic diving was prevalent in some individuals. Benthic diving was significantly associated with the frequency with which females exceeded their aerobic dive limit. The greater putative costs of benthic diving highlight the potential detrimental effects to Cape fur seals of well-documented changes in the availability of epipelagic prey species in the Benguela.

Analysis of e-visibility status of faculties in Africa

Visibility ultimately increases citation counts as well as improving the research productivity of researchers. Analyzing the e-visibility status of faculties in Africa using Google Scholar Citation index as a yardstick is the objective of the study. Comparative causal- effect Ex Post Facto research design was employed in to achieving the desired objectives. With an estimate of eight hundred and forty-three thousand, five hundred (843, 500) academic staff in various African Universities as the population of the study; One thousand, six hundred and sixty-seven (1,667) academic staff was sampled from ten (10) universities. Two universities from each region of West Africa, Southern Africa, East Africa, North Africa and Central Africa that have GSC accounts formed the bases of the sample. Purposive quota sampling technique was used to select faculties who have account with google scholar that provides individual statistics of citation counts. Data was collected strictly using google scholar database. Google scholar database provided information on paper citation counts. Data was analyzed as follows: the research questions were analyzed using mean and standard deviation while One-way Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to analyze the hypotheses. Among the findings were that University of Cape Town, University of Pretoria, Cairo University and University of Nairobi are most e-visible universities, also citation indexes of faculties among African universities are statistically significant. The study also established the importance of GSC as an open access source that can be utilized to evaluate and improve productivity and visibility of African faculties so recommended same researchers in Africa to take advantage of.

A simple approach to estimating channel transmission losses in large South African river basins

Study regionSouth Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland. Study focusThe focus of this study is on the development of simple transmission loss functions that can account for channel evaporation and alluvial storage losses from upstream flows in the downstream sub-basins of large river systems. New hydrological insights for this regionThe importance of channel evaporation (and hence the relevance of the proposed model) is quite variable depending on the climate variations within the basins. While the model is validated using a site in the USA, it is difficult to fully assess the importance of alluvial losses in the southern Africa region, as there are almost no appropriate observed data, and few studies that quantify alluvial material extent or properties. Where existing information on transmission losses is available for South Africa, the model generated results that are in broad agreement.