Global climate change is one of the most critical challenges facing natural ecosystems. As sedentary organisms, plant communities are especially vulnerable, with climate change significantly impacting their development, productivity, and distribution. This study focuses on modelling and mapping the potential distribution of black pine (Pinus nigra) within the Antalya Regional Forest Directorate under the SSP1 2.6 climate scenario for the years 2040, 2060, 2080, and 2100. The MaxEnt modelling method, combined with the HadGEM3-GC31-LL climate model from WorldClim, was used to assess the impact of climate change on black pine. The current distribution model results showed “good” predictive performance, with AUC values of 0.855 for training data and 0.851 for testing data. Key variables influencing the model included precipitation during the wettest quarter, annual precipitation, maximum temperature of the warmest month, and elevation. Projections indicate that the black pine’s distribution will shrink by 2040, become increasingly fragmented by 2060, and decline further by 2080, with near-total disappearance by 2100. In conclusion, this study highlights the urgent need for adaptive management strategies to address the effects of climate change on black pine forests.
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