Predicting the effect of climate change on the geographic range of the Mediterranean relict tree Liquidambar orientalis Mill

Abstract

Climate change is anticipated to pose a significant danger to the habitats and spatial distribution of species in the Mediterranean region throughout the present century. The primary objective of this study was to predict the future geographic range of Liquidambar orientalis, commonly known as the oriental sweetgum under different climate change scenarios. This species is a relict riparian Mediterranean plant originating from the southwestern Anatolia region and Rhodos Island in Greece. To gain insights into the potential effects of climate change on the range of L. orientalis in the future, I used an ensemble modeling approach of species distribution models based on the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1‐2.6 and SSP5‐8.5 for the years 2035, 2055 and 2070). The models suggested that the level of precipitation during the wettest month has a crucial role in determining the occurrence of the oriental sweetgum tree. Future projections indicate that the oriental sweetgum will significantly contract its native distribution range due to warming and declining precipitation levels. The population of L. orientalis has previously undergone a decrease as a result of anthropogenic activity. Therefore, it is imperative to augment the degree of urgency in conservation endeavors for the oriental sweetgum species against the ramifications of human‐induced actions and the persistent effects of climate change.