South-to-North Water Diversion Project Research Articles

Determination of Ecological Compensation Standard Based on the Value of Ecosystem Services: A Case Study of the Eastern Route of China’s South-to-North Water Diversion Project in Jiangsu Province

The key issue in ecological compensation of inter-basin water diversion projects is quantifying the compensation standard scientifically and reasonably in order to truly reflect the cost and benefit of related ecosystem services as well as to meet the needs of various stakeholders, by which the harmony of environmental and economic interests can be achieved. Based on the theory of valuable ecosystem services and the actual case of the Eastern Route of China’s South-to-North Water Diversion Project (S-NWDP), this paper proposes a model to quantify the ecological compensation of inter-basin water diversion project. By using the Equivalent-factor (E-F) method the value of ecosystem services can be determined, and then the compensation standard is clear by comparing the growth of regional ecosystem service value with that of regional GDP of Yangzhou, Huai’an, Suqian and Xuzhou city in Jiangsu Province.

Evolutionary Game Analysis of Emergency Management of the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project

In order to improve the efficiency of emergency management of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP), and to guarantee the water supply function of the project, the intergovernmental cooperation system of emergency management for emergent events in the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project was established. The cooperation models of emergent events were built using Evolutionary Game Theory. The evolutionary influence of system parameters on respective governmental behaviour was analysed. The payment functions of the emergency agents involved were constructed, the corresponding replicator dynamic equations were established and evolutionary stable strategies were discussed. Theoretical and numerical analysis results show that: In order to let local government show strong willingness to implement emergency policies, the profit caused by local government i increases its implement policy willingness to more than the increased cost. Only MWR increases the penalty on local government when it shows weak willingness and let the penalty be more than the cost increased by weak willingness, can avoid all local government select weak cooperative willingness.

Modelling the response of shallow groundwater levels to combined climate and water-diversion scenarios in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Plain, China

A three-dimensional groundwater flow model was implemented to quantify the temporal variation of shallow groundwater levels in response to combined climate and water-diversion scenarios over the next 40 years (2011–2050) in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (Jing-Jin-Ji) Plain, China. Groundwater plays a key role in the water supply, but the Jing-Jin-Ji Plain is facing a water crisis. Groundwater levels have declined continuously over the last five decades (1961–2010) due to extensive pumping and climate change, which has resulted in decreased recharge. The implementation of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) will provide an opportunity to restore the groundwater resources. The response of groundwater levels to combined climate and water-diversion scenarios has been quantified using a groundwater flow model. The impacts of climate change were based on the World Climate Research Programme’s (WCRP’s) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset for future high (A2), medium (A1B), and low (B1) greenhouse gas scenarios; precipitation data from CMIP3 were applied in the model. The results show that climate change will slow the rate of decrease of the shallow groundwater levels under three climate-change scenarios over the next 40 years compared to the baseline scenario; however, the shallow groundwater levels will rise significantly (maximum of 6.71 m) when considering scenarios that combine climate change and restrictions on groundwater exploitation. Restrictions on groundwater exploitation for water resource management are imperative to control the decline of levels in the Jing-Jin-Ji area.

Analysis of soil components along water channel of east route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project

To explore the relationship between the soil components along the areas of the east route of the Southto-North Water Diversion Project and the survival situation of Oncomelania hupensis snails. Four study sites were selected along the project, and soil samples were collected to analyze the components. The amounts of components among the different study sites were compared statistically. Except zinc, sodium, and phosphorus, the contents of the soil components where the snails survived were different from those where snails were dead (t = -19.150 to 12.810, all P < 0.01). However, the logistic regression analysis did not obtain a model with statistical significance. O. hupensis snails live in the soil with adequate organic matter and neutral pH value. Along with the global warming and the operation of the South-toNorth Water Diversion Project, O. hupensis snails may survive in the northern area, and therefore, the surveillance work should be strengthened.

Life cycle assessment of water supply alternatives in water-receiving areas of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project in China

To alleviate the water shortage in northern China, the Chinese government launched the world's largest water diversion project, the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP), which delivers water from water-sufficient southern China to water-deficient northern China. However, an up-to-date study has not been conducted to determine whether the project is a favorable option to augment the water supply from an environmental perspective. The life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology integrated with a freshwater withdrawal category (FWI) was adopted to compare water supply alternatives in the water-receiving areas of the SNWDP, i.e., water diversion, wastewater reclamation and seawater desalination. Beijing, Tianjin, Jinan and Qingdao were studied as representative cities because they are the primary water-receiving areas of the SNWDP. The results revealed that the operation phase played the dominant role in all but one of the life cycle impact categories considered and contributed to more than 70% of their scores. For Beijing and Tianjin, receiving water through the SNWDP is the most sustainable option to augment the water supply. The result can be drawn in all of the water-receiving areas of the middle route of the SNWDP. For Jinan and Qingdao, the most sustainable option is the wastewater reclamation system. The seawater desalination system obtains the highest score of the standard impact indicators in all of the study areas, whereas it is the most favorable water supply option when considering the freshwater withdrawal impact. Although the most sustainable water supply alternative was recommended through an LCA analysis, multi-water resources should be integrated into the region's water supply from the perspective of water sustainability. The results of this study provide a useful recommendation on the management of water resources for China.

Quantity versus Quality in China’s South-to-North Water Diversion Project: A System Dynamics Analysis

The South-to-North Water Diversion (SNWD) Project has entered the operational stage. The infrastructure decreases water shortages and promotes economic growth for North China, whereas the environmental effects have yet to be fully examined. In this paper, an analysis of the interaction between water quantity and water quality is conducted using the system dynamics method. In a specific province covering areas that provide and receive water, simulation results for economic and environmental indicators at different levels of transferred water and pollution rates are obtained. Certain conclusions can be drawn from the findings. First, the SNWD Project can provide a sufficient quantity of water for economic growth in receiving regions. Second, an efficient quantity of transferred water exists, which demonstrates the growth limitation for both agriculture and the groundwater funnel. Third, upgrades in water quality can mutually reinforce the quantity effect and greatly promote economic growth. An environmental limitation exists for all economic activities. Therefore, water quantity and water quality are equally crucial in the SNWD Project to provide an opportunity for sustainable development.

Optimization and coordination of South-to-North Water Diversion supply chain with strategic customer behavior

The South-to-North Water Diversion (SNWD) Project is a significant engineering project meant to solve water shortage problems in North China. Faced with market operations management of the water diversion system, this study defined the supply chain system for the SNWD Project, considering the actual project conditions, built a decentralized decision model and a centralized decision model with strategic customer behavior (SCB) using a floating pricing mechanism (FPM), and constructed a coordination mechanism via a revenue-sharing contract. The results suggest the following: (1) owing to water shortage supplements and the excess water sale policy provided by the FPM, the optimal ordering quantity of water resources is less than that without the FPM, and the optimal profits of the whole supply chain, supplier, and external distributor are higher than they would be without the FPM; (2) wholesale pricing and supplementary wholesale pricing with SCB are higher than those without SCB, and the optimal profits of the whole supply chain, supplier, and external distributor are higher than they would be without SCB; and (3) considering SCB and introducing the FPM help increase the optimal profits of the whole supply chain, supplier, and external distributor, and improve the efficiency of water resources usage.

Reliability model of organization management chain of South-to-North Water Diversion Project during construction period

In order to analyze the indispensability of the organization management chain of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP), two basic forms (series connection state and mixed state of both series connection and parallel connection) of the organization management chain can be abstracted. The indispensability of each form has been studied and is described in this paper. Through analysis of the reliability of the two basic forms, reliability models of the organization management chain in the series connection state and the mixed state of both series connection and parallel connection have been set up.

Application of SEDEA to evaluation of degree of harmony between water resources and economic development

This paper introduces the method of data envelopment analysis (DEA) for evaluation of the degree of harmony between water resources and economic development of the water conservancy area of China's South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP). For this evaluation, a super-efficiency DEA (SEDEA) model was developed based on the super-efficiency method. To verify the applicability of the SEDEA model, both the SEDEA model and a normal-efficiency DEA (NEDEA) model were used to evaluate the degree of harmony between water resources and economic development of typical cities in the SNWDP water conservancy area. The results show that the SEDEA model ranks the degree of harmony of typical cities more efficiently than the NEDEA model, and thus can better evaluate the degree of harmony between water resources and economic development of different cities than the NEDEA model. Furthermore, the SEDEA model can be applied as an operational research tool in regional water resources management.

How large are uncertainties in future projection of reference evapotranspiration through different approaches?

• Analyze the uncertainties in ET 0 projection from estimation method and data quality. • Provide reliable future projection of ET 0 from GCMs. • Discuss the implication of future ET 0 change to regional water resources. As the indicator of atmospheric evaporative demand over a hypothetical reference surface, reference evapotranspiration (ET 0 ) is an important input to hydrological models. Future projections of ET 0 are of great importance in assessing the potential impacts of climate change on the hydrologic regime as well as water resources systems. Different estimating formulations and different input data reliabilities existing in practice determine there may be potential uncertainty in projection of future ET 0 change. Here we investigated the difference of future ET 0 response to climate change based on three approaches, i.e., more physically based Penman–Montieth equation with relatively uncertain downscaled data quality, more empirical temperature-based Hargreaves equation with more reliable downscaled input data, and statistical downscaling method with directly selecting ET 0 as predictands. The Hanjiang River Basin, a headwater source of famous South to North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) in China was chosen as example to illustrate this issue. Although similar increase processes of ET 0 in the Hanjiang River Basin were suggested by three methods, the magnitude of ET 0 increase differs substantially, indicating that uncertainty still exist despite of approximate performance of these methods in simulating general trends. Whilst increasing aridity index and decreasing water surplus over the period of 2011–2099 would inevitably cause negative impacts on the implementation of the SNWDP and effective adapting measures are thus expected.

Evaluation, prediction, and protection of water quality in Danjiangkou Reservoir, China

The water quality in the Danjiangkou Reservoir has attracted considerable attention from the Chinese public and government since the announcement of the Middle Route of the South to North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP), which commenced transferring water in 2014. Integrated research on the evaluation, prediction, and protection of water quality in the Danjiangkou Reservoir was carried out in this study in order to improve environmental management. Based on 120 water samples, wherein 17 water quality indices were measured at 20 monitoring sites, a single factor evaluation method was used to evaluate the current status of water quality. The results show that the main indices influencing the water quality in the Danjiangkou Reservoir are total phosphorus (TP), permanganate index (CODMn), dissolved oxygen (DO), and five-day biochemical oxygen demand (BOD5), and the concentrations of TP, BOD5, ammonia nitrogen (NH3–N), CODMn, DO, and anionic surfactant (Surfa) do not reach the specified standard levels in the tributaries. Seasonal Mann–Kendall tests indicated that the CODMn concentration shows a highly significant increasing trend, and the TP concentration shows a significant increasing trend in the Danjiangkou Reservoir. The distribution of the main water quality indices in the Danjiangkou Reservoir was predicted using a two-dimensional water quality numerical model, and showed that the sphere of influence from the tributaries can spread across half of the Han Reservoir if the pollutants are not controlled. Cluster analysis (CA) results suggest that the Shending River is heavily polluted, that the Jianghe, Sihe, and Jianhe rivers are moderately polluted, and that they should be the focus of environmental remediation.

Dissolved organic matter fractions and disinfection by-product formation potential from major raw waters in the water-receiving areas of south-to-north water diversion project, China

The raw waters from the Yellow River and the Danjiangkou Reservoir are the two most important sources of water in the water-receiving areas of the south-to-north water diversion project (SNWDP). This paper compared the constitution of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in the two waters based on XAD resins isolation, ultrafiltration fractionation, and the disinfection by-product formation potential of each fraction. The dissolved organic carbon (DOC), UV254, trihalomethanes, and nitrogenous disinfection by-product (N-DBP) formation potential of the raw water from the Yellow River were higher than those from the Danjiangkou Reservoir. The molecular weight (MW) < 1 kDa fraction contained the most DOM and dominated the major THM formation potential (THMFP) and N-DBP formation potential (N-DBPFP) in both waters. The hydrophilic fraction possessed the highest proportion in the Yellow River water, while the transphilic fraction was predominant in the Danjiangkou Reservoir water. In both waters, the hydrophobic fraction owned the highest THMFP and the hydrophilic fraction contained the highest N-DBPFP. Meanwhile, the molecular weight (MW) < 1 kDa and hydrophilic fractions contributed more bromated THMFP than the other fractions. Very toxic bromoform, bromochloroacetonitrile, and dibromoacetonitrile were only detected in DOM fractions from the Yellow River water. Therefore, the hydrophobic/hydrophilic organic compounds with low MW in both raw waters and bromide in Yellow River water should receive attention during the upgrading and reforming of drinking water treatment processes for adapting waters with different qualities in the water-receiving areas of SNWDP.

Spatiotemporal distribution pattern of cyanobacteria community and its relationship with the environmental factors in Hongze Lake, China.

Hongze Lake, located in the east route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP), is a potential drinking water source for the residents along this water diversion project. Based on a monthly sampling at 11 stations in three regions of Hongze Lake, the spatiotemporal distribution pattern of cyanobacteria community was comprehensively investigated from March 2011 to February 2013. A total of 23 cyanobacterial species which belong to 16 genera were identified, and Microcystis was the most predominant cyanobacterial genus mainly composed of Microcystis wesenbergii in Hongze Lake. The cyanobacterial abundance ranged from 0 to 2.6 × 10(7) cells/L, and the average cyanobacteria abundance of Northern region was significantly higher than those of Western region and Eastern region in the 2-year study. The total cyanobacteria abundance and the Microcystis abundance both took on a similar seasonal regularity in the three regions. The results of correlation analysis indicated that Microcystis abundance was correlated with water temperature, chemical oxygen demand (COD)Mn, nitrate (NO₃-N), and total nitrogen (TN)/total phosphorus (TP) mass ratio, among which water temperature had the highest correlation coefficient. In summer, cyanobacteria blooms may take place under suitable environmental conditions at some special areas in Hongze Lake, especially where the concurrence of slow water exchange and steady wind direction exists.

Influence of south-to-north water diversion on major cones of depression in North China Plain

The developments of cones of depression in the North China Plain (NCP) were studied to determine the possible impact of the proposed South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) on groundwater levels. In the past five decades, the exploitation of groundwater in the NCP has been excessive. Numerous hydrological and hydrogeological problems were caused by the gradual decline of the water table in the NCP. In order to protect groundwater resources and alleviate hydrogeological problems, the SNWDP was proposed to progressively solve the shortage of water resources in northern China. In this paper, the development of cones of depression was studied to determine the possible impact of the hydrological engineering, the SNWDP. In the study, a numerical model for regional groundwater flow was created using MODFLOW. The results showed that the SNWDP is beneficial for groundwater recovery in the NCP. The area of cones of depression will be reduced to varying degrees. Some immense groundwater cones will gradually shrink. However, it will take a long time to recover groundwater environment in the NCP.

Long-Term Evolution of Cones of Depression in Shallow Aquifers in the North China Plain

The North China Plain (NCP) is one of the places where the groundwater is most over-exploited in the world. Currently, our understanding on the spatiotemporal variability of the cones of depression in this region is fragmentary. This study intends to simulate the cones of depression in the shallow aquifer across the entire NCP during the whole period from 1960 to 2011. During the simulation, the dominant role of anthropogenic activities is emphasized and carefully taken into account using a Neural Network Algorithm. The results show that cones of depression in the NCP were formed in 1970s and continuously expanded. Their centers were getting deeper with an increasing degree of groundwater exploitation. This simulation provides valuable insights for developing more sustainable groundwater management options after the implementation of the South-to-NorthWater Diversion Project (SNWDP), which is a very important surface water project in China in the near future. The numerical model in this paper is built by MODFLOW, with pumpage data completed by neural network algorithm and hydrogeological parameters calibrated by simulated annealing algorithm. Based on our long-term numerical model for regional groundwater flow in the NCP, one exploitation limitation strategy after the implementation of SNWDP is studied in this paper. The results indicate that the SNWDP is beneficial for groundwater recovery in the NCP. A number of immense groundwater cones will gradually shrink. However, the recovery of the groundwater environment in the NCP will require a long time.

Asymmetric Nash bargaining model for the eastern route of south-to-north water diversion supply chain cooperative operations

The eastern route of south-to-north water diversion (SNWD) project is a large-scale multi-source, multi-objective and multi-project inter-basin system. Constructed to pump, store and supply water to achieve rational water distribution in North China, the project is close to completion currently, and faced with optimal operations management problems. Based on the project practice, this article develops a supply chain system for the SNWD project, where a Stackelberg game model under decentralized decisions, an asymmetric Nash bargaining model, and an asymmetric Nash bargaining model with risk of breakdown and discount are respectively built, and numerical analysis are carried out for managerial insights. This study suggests that: (i) asymmetric Nash bargaining provides a more efficient mechanism for south-to-north water diversion supply chain to achieve cooperative operations through non-cooperative way; (ii) the Agent's sharing profit earned is positively related to his bargaining power, and the optimal wholesale price and the sharing profit of the supplier increases as the bargaining power increases; (iii) due to the existence of the discount factor and the risk of breakdown, both sides in the bargaining game will make a concession to achieve a stationary solution for asymmetric Nash bargaining problem, which is beneficial for both sides of the SNWD supply chain; (iv) the optimal wholesale price increases as the probability of breakdown in disagreement increases; the supplier's optimal profit increases and the external distributor's optimal profit decreases as the probability of breakdown in disagreement increases.

Dramatic decrease in streamflow from the headwater source in the central route of China's water diversion project: Climatic variation or human influence?

The Danjiangkou Reservoir is the headwater source of the central route of China's South to North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP). Average annual streamflow into the Reservoir was 40.97 km3 from 1951 to 1989, while it was 31.64 km3 from 1990 to 2006. Between the two periods, the average annual streamflow was reduced by 9.33 km3, accounting for 71.8% of the proposed amount of water diversion of the central route (13 km3 per year). The sharply decreasing streamflow would inevitably have negative impacts on the implementation of the SNWDP. The reasons for the decrease in streamflow should be investigated before developing any adaption strategies. In this study, the impacts of climatic variation and human activities on streamflow were evaluated by a climate elasticity method. The results show that the impact of climatic variation (indicated by precipitation and potential evapotranspiration) was responsible for 84.1–90.1% of the streamflow reduction, while human activities or other indentified uncertainties contributed 9.9–15.9% of the streamflow reduction. The observed 69.89 mm decrease in average annual precipitation contributed 81.6–87.3% of the decrease in streamflow. According to the observed data during the study period, the planned water diversion could lead to an ecological disaster of the downstream area of the Danjiangkou Reservoir in certain years. We suggest that the water diversion from the Danjiangkou Reservoir should be conducted in an adaptive manner to avoid such an adverse consequence, instead of the current plan of a fixed annual amount of water.

The South-to-North Water Diversion Project: effect of the water diversion pattern on transmission of Oncomelania hupensis, the intermediate host of Schistosoma japonicum in China.

BackgroundThe South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) is the largest national water conservancy project in China. However, the Eastern Route Project (ERP) of SNWDP will refer to the habitats of Oncomelania hupensis, the intermediate host of Schistosoma japonicum. The present study was aimed at investigating the effects of some factors relating to the water diversion pattern on the spread north of O. hupensis and transmission of S. japonicum.MethodsMarked snails were attached to the floating debris, and then placed on the water surface, the passage of snails through water pumps was observed. Some marked living adult snails were placed under water in the 5 spots, 15, 30, 60, 90 and 120 days later, their survival and transfer under water were investigated. 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64 and 128 juvenile snails, with a male: female ratio of about 1, were caged, 1 year later, their reproductions were calculated.ResultsThe snails attached on the floating debris at 100-, 50- and 20-cm-distance from the inlet pipe of the big pump (with a diameter of 80 cm), could be absorbed into the pumps, with passing rates of 2.45%, 3.93% and 43.46%, respectively, compared with 72.07% and 91.00% for the snails at 20 cm and 10 cm-distance from the inlet pipe of the small pump (with a diameter of 20 cm). A total of 36,600 marked living snails were put into 5 ponds and ditches, with the water depths of 1-1.6 m, 15-120 days later, no marked ones were found along the ponds and ditches or in the straw packages. The juvenile snails did not reproduce until their density reached up to 8 snails (ratio of male: female of 1)/0.16 m2.ConclusionsDuring the construction of ERP of SNWDP, the risk of northward spread of schistosomiasis japonica will be decreased or eliminated as long as long-term reliable interventions for snail control are implemented.

A novel flushing strategy for diatom bloom prevention in the lower-middle Hanjiang River

There are many concerns over the environmental consequences of river regulation in China, such as the Three Gorges Project and the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP). In this study, however, we attempted to find the positive role of these constructions in solving environmental problems. We explored the possibility for preventing downstream diatom blooms by using the water storage in the Danjiangkou Reservoir. And we developed a flushing strategy accessing the proper flushing time and water quantity to control the diatom growth. First, we set up a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) to analyze the dynamics of the bloom-formation species, Stephanodiscus hantzschii, in response to the environmental variation. The model took into account the time lags between the biovolume and the environmental parameters. The model indicated that, air temperature explained the most variance in biovolume, followed by soluble reactive silicon (SRSi), turbidity, TP, dam release, PAR, pH and total nitrogen (GAM, R2 = 0.759). Afterwards, we applied the model to a new predictive dataset, in which values were simulated according to the assumed dam release and air temperature. The GAM predicted fewer releases for flushing by using this dataset than the measured data, implying a prospect of saving water when using this strategy. Finally, we drew a contour map to present the operating procedure of this strategy. Our flushing strategy is to regulate the dam release above a critical value dependent on the air temperatures predicted over the following few days.

基于Copula函数的干旱特征分析

研究干旱事件有利于水资源的规划和管理。本文以标准降水指数SPI作为干旱指标，基于Copula函数，提出了一种新的干旱分析模型。该模型首先生成M年的日降雨数据，首次采用干旱历时、干旱程度、最小SPI值和干旱间隔时间来定义干旱事件，引入四维对称和非对称型Archimedean和椭圆Copula函数构建多维联合分布；最后依据联合重现期和条件重现期的计算公式，分析了干旱事件的重现期，并以汉江上游为例进行了应用研究。结果表明，所提方法考虑了多个变量，与现有方法相比，能够更全面地反映干旱事件的真实特征；本文的分析结果将为南水北调中线工程调度决策提供科学依据和技术支持。 Droughts are of great importance in the planning and management of water resources. This study proposed a new model for analyzing the characteristics of droughts based on copula functions and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). First, M years of daily rainfall data were simulated for evaluating drought characteristics. Second, drought characteristics, namely, drought duration, severity, interval time and minimum SPI values, were introduced and determined in this model. Then, several copulas, including symmetric and asymmetric Archimedean and meta-elliptical copulas were applied to construct four-dimensional joint distributions. Drought probabilities and return period were calculated and analyzed based on a four-dimensional copula using the upper Han River basin,China, as a study area. The results show that compared with the current methods, the four-dimensional joint distribution considering more variables can reveal the real characteristics of droughts. The analysis results can provide technique support for the well-known South- to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) inChina.