South-North Water Diversion Project Research Articles

Water Diversion Conflicts in China: A Hierarchical Perspective

To address China’s large population and uneven distribution of water storage, the South-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) aims at transferring water from the Yangtze River (Changjiang) Basin to the North China Plain. This project is being implemented over three different routes, referred to as the Eastern, Central, and Western routes, each of which is giving rise to strategic conflicts. In this paper, the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR) is used to systematically investigate these conflicts and obtain strategic insights into them. The Chinese Central Government is involved in each conflict, together with local decision makers, making the entire conflict hierarchical. The conflict is analyzed both as an overall graph model and as three local conflicts, and the resulting equilibria are compared. The Central Government’s preferences, which can be fully elaborated in the single or overall model, account for the differences in equilibria between the overall model and the three local models. The Central Government, which utilizes different strategies in planning, modifying, and building these routes, may be able to control the overall project as it wishes, thereby reaching separate agreements with the relevant decision makers along each route.

The impact of water transfers from the lower Yangtze River on water security in Shanghai

Shanghai is a megacity that increasingly relies on water drawn from the Yangtze River estuary. During periods of low flow, water in the estuary can become too saline for use in city water supplies. River flow is measured at the Datong gauging station 680 km upstream from the river mouth. Several existing and planned river water extractions are located below Datong, including the Eastern Route of the South-North Water Diversion Project (ERP). The effect of these extractions on discharge into the estuary and the associated salinity levels may be significant, even though the extractions are not reflected in the discharge at Datong. We estimate the effects of these downstream extractions on water discharge into the estuary (rather than at Datong), particularly the critical discharge level below which salinity compromises water security in Shanghai. Our results show that the ERP will cause the discharge into the estuary to fall below critical levels between December and February in dry years and January to February in normal years. Future water transfer projects along the lower Yangtze River will further compound the problem. Maintaining Shanghai's water security is therefore a significant challenge for China's water resource management institutions.

Integrated simulation of the dualistic water cycle and its associated processes in the Haihe River Basin

Water resource shortages, water environmental deterioration, and water ecological degradation are becoming increasingly prominent in the Haihe River Basin under the effects of global climate change and intense human activity. Finding ways to solve these problems reasonably is an urgent task in basin water resources management. The water cycle describes the formation and transformation of every water drop, while it interacts with associated water ecology and water environment processes. Therefore, to fundamentally solve the above problems, the three processes must be combined and the evolutionary trends of the ecology and water environment driven by the water cycle must be determined. To comprehensively diagnose and solve the problems of water resources, ecology and water environment in the basin, an integrated simulation platform of the dualistic water cycle and its associated processes in the Haihe River Basin was established by fully analyzing the “natural-social” dualistic characteristics of the evolution of the basin water cycle in this study. Accordingly, it is a supporting tool to evaluate the future trends of water resources, ecology and the water environment by setting scenarios based on the predictions of a climate mode and water control conditions. The results show that with climate change, the water consumption, groundwater overexploitation, and the amount of water flowing to the sea could develop soundly and satisfy the requirements of national economic growth in the future planning year 2030 through the implementation of water consumption control management and the South-North Water Diversion Project. Meanwhile, associated water environmental deterioration can be alleviated, and a growing trend for production capacities of the natural ecosystem and agro-ecosystem is seen. The above results provide a foundation for implementing basin water resources regulation and the most strict water resources management.

3-D FEM Analysis of Large-Scale Prestressed Concrete Aqueduct in the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project

Taking the properties of aqueduct in the middle line of the South-North Water Diversion Project, such as high flow, long span, large load and cross section and so on, two schemes about layout of prestressed steel strands are put forward. In order to guarantee safety of the project and structural optimization, 3-D FEM is adopted to study the regularity of distribution of stress and strain on control section under each condition of the two schemes. The results show that the design of steel strands in the first scheme (wavy steel strands) is much more reasonable and meets the requirements for anti-crack and deflection of the aqueduct body.

Optimization and adjustment policy of two-echelon reservoir inventory management with forecast updates

A finite-horizon, periodic-review inventory model with inflow forecasting updates following the Martingale Model of Forecast Evolution (MMFE) in multiresevoirs is considered. This model introduces a new method of determining an operating policy in which the policy is based on the Dynamic Programming (DP) model with a physical equation and a recursive equation. Some important constraints are described for the multireservoirs operation. We propose two methods to adjust the decision variable during the optimization. The adjustment policy is essential to improve the profit and decrease the shortage in multireservoirs management. Finally, to assess the effectiveness of the policies, the model is compared with other models and is applied to the Chinese South–North Water Diversion project.

Optimal Utilization Simulation and Decision Making on Water Resources System

Abstract According to system optimization theory, a multi-objective optimal allocation model of water resources system is established. Based on the maximal factor sensitivity analysis, the water allocation system with multi-constraint conditions is assessed. At the same time the numerical Solutions and program for the model which uses the minimum of the weight coefficient fluctuation to measure the influence degree of decision is developed. Then the optimal model of water resources system is used at the South-North Water Diversion Project region. Based on the weight coefficient sensitivity analysis, the model's practical suitability is considered. The study provides important reference to improve resources utilization efficiency and supply reliability. The method overcomes the disagreement disadvantage when transforming multi-object to single object during the process of solving the model. It is practical for water resources system assessment.

Water Shortage Risk Assessment in the Haihe River Basin, China

This paper studies water balance in the Haihe River Basin, China and assesses water shortage risk for the period 1994-2007. The authors identify that there is a water shortage problem in this area and propose that the non-intake water consumption (NIWC) is a very important water balance element. The NIWC in the Haihe River Basin flow is 5.91×10 9 m 3 in normal years. It was concluded from our evaluation that the water shortage risk during 1994-2007 was very high. Using international water risk assessment theory, multiyear risk indicators in Haihe River Basin can be calculated. Water risk rate, resiliency, stability, and vulnerability for the Haihe River Basin for the period 1994-2007 were 0.786, 0.000, 0.154 and 0.173 respectively. With the use of counter-force factors and adoption of different priorities to different water consumers, the water shortage risk can be decreased. The integrated water shortage risk indicators of the Haihe River Basin are 0.095-0.328. In this study, water availability from the South-North Water Diversion Project is also considered. By the year 2014, about 5×10 9 m 3 of water will be diverted from the Yangtse River, and the water shortage risk in the Haihe River Basin will drop from 0.229-0.297 to 0.152-0.234 under an inflow water frequency of 50%-75%. However, a risk of water shortage in this area will persist.

Seismic liquefaction analysis of a reservoir dam foundation in the South–North Water Diversion project in China. Part I: Liquefaction potential assessment

In this paper, the dynamic characteristics of a liquefiable silt substratum within the foundation soil of a reservoir dam in the Tianjin area are investigated by means of standard penetration resistance and dynamic triaxial tests. Properties including N-values, factors influencing liquefaction as a cyclic stress, consolidation pressure, structure, and particle composition are considered in this research. Parameters used to evaluate liquefaction potential are obtained through testing. A comprehensive program based on the Chinese code and standard for geological investigation (Ministry of Water Resources of China 1999a; Ministry of Construction of China 2001a) and Seed’s simplified method (Seed and Idriss 1971; in J Geotech Eng Div ASCE 109(3): 458–482, 1983) was carried out to evaluate the potential of liquefaction within the reservoir dam foundation. Liquefaction potentials were also assessed in response to the Chinese codes for seismic design (Hydropower Research Institute of China 2000; Ministry of Construction of China 2001b). The evaluation shows that saturated surface silt in the reservoir dam foundations is vulnerable to liquefaction at seismic intensities of VII and above. The two assessment methods are in good agreement with each other, and the research results can provide useful information for the safe construction and normal operation of the reservoir.

Seismic liquefaction analysis of a reservoir dam foundation in the South–North Water Diversion Project in China. Part II: seismic response simulation

As shown in Part I of this study, the saturated surface silt of the dam foundations in Tianjin is vulnerable to liquefaction with a seismic intensity of VII. According to the Chinese codes for the seismic design of buildings (Hydropower Research Institute of China), specifications for seismic design of hydraulic structures (DL 5073–2000), China Water Power Press, Beijing (in Chinese) 2000, Ministry of Construction of China, code for seismic design of buildings (GB 50011–2001) and China Building Industry Press, Beijing 2001), specific procedures were selected for anti-liquefaction treatments in this project. Numerical simulation analyses, which have become an indispensable step in engineering practice, especially for large projects such as this, have been applied to dam foundations before and after anti-liquefaction treatments to see how they will behave in an earthquake. Simulated results of the dam foundations during an earthquake were obtained for excess pore water pressure, acceleration, displacement, and properties that are considered useful for earthquake geotechnical design. The simulation is in good agreement with empirical methods for the performance of the dam foundation during the earthquake. Results also show that the anti-liquefaction treatments that made use of a cutoff wall and a platform beyond the dam improved the integral stability of the dam. The cutoff wall can prevent lateral spreading (of the left side foundation soil in the case presented here), and the platform prevents an increase in pore water pressure.

Multi-Time-Scale Climatic Variations over Eastern China and Implications for the South–North Water Diversion Project

Abstract Middle and eastern routes of the South–North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) of China, which are approximately located within the area 28°–42°N and 110°–122°E, are being constructed. This paper investigates the past climatic variations on various time scales using instrumental and proxy data. It is found that annual mean surface air temperature has increased significantly during the past 50–100 years, and winter and spring temperatures in the northern part of the region have undergone the most significant changes. A much more significant increase occurs for annual mean minimum temperature and extreme low temperature than for annual mean maximum temperature and extreme high temperature. No significant trend in annual precipitation is found for the region as a whole for the last 50 and 100 years, although obvious decadal and spatial variation is detectable. A seesaw pattern of annual and summer precipitation variability between the north and the south of the region is evident. Over the last 100 years, the Haihe River basin has witnessed a significant negative trend of annual precipitation, but no similar trend is detected for the Yangtze and Huaihe River basins. Pan evaporation has significantly decreased since the mid-1960s in the region in spite of the fact that the trend appears to have ended in the early 1990s. The negative trend of pan evaporation is very significant in the plain area between the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers. There was a notable series of dry intervals lasting decades in the north of the region. The northern drought of the past 30 years is not the most severe in view of the past 500 years; however, the southern drought during the period from the 1960s to the 1980s may have been unprecedented. The dryness–wetness index (DWI) shows significant oscillations with periodicities of 9.5 and 20 years in the south and 10.5 and 25 years in the north. Longer periodicities in the DWI series include 160–170- and 70–80-yr oscillations in the north, and 100–150-yr oscillations in the south. The observed climate change could have implications for the construction and management of the SNWDP. The official approval and start of the hydro project was catalyzed by the severe multiyear drought of 1997–2003 in the north, and the operation and management of the project in the future will also be influenced by climate change—in particular by precipitation variability. This paper provides a preliminary discussion of the potential implications of observed climate change for the SNWDP.

Environmental Stressors and Food Security in China

This article considers the immediate forces influencing China’s food system and food security. By immediate is meant events of the reform period, from the late 1970s to 2008. It begins by asking the question that has preoccupied specialists since the publication of Lester Brown’s Who Will Feed China? in 1995: How much arable land does China have? Is that land area sufficient to insure grain sufficiency? To insure food security? The article focuses on the human pressures on the food production environment, and then treats the effects of socioeconomic change: land, air, and water degradation. The core of the article examines six responses of the state to both perceived and actual environmental stressors: policy restricting arable land conversion, China’s one-child policy, investment in irrigation systems, the South–North Water Diversion Project, large-scale afforestation and reforestation campaigns, and the program to convert marginal agricultural lands to forests and grasslands.

Potential Ecological Benefits of the Middle Route for the South-North Water Diversion Project

This paper presents a study of the middle route of the South-North Water Diversion Project. The middle route runs through the Northern China plain, where the water shortages are the most severe. There is not only a shortage of water for human usage, but also a shortage of ecological water. Although the current plan for the middle route is strictly focused on supplying water for residential and industrial use, the water can also potentially be used for ecological purposes. This paper evaluates the potential ecological benefits that can be brought to the fragile ecology in northern China by the middle route, in addition to the water supplied to residences and industry. The study describes ecological benefits of the middle route project, such as mitigation of groundwater extraction in the region and positive influences on the climate, the ecological uses of the middle route project itself, such as creating artificial niches along the channel and directly using the channel for ecological purposes, and the ecological uses of the water along the middle route, such as diversion of the water into river channels that have suffered from drought conditions for decades.

Influence of the South–North Water Diversion Project and the mitigation projects on the water quality of Han River

Situated in the central part of China, the Han River Basin is undergoing rapid social and economic development with some human interventions to be made soon which will profoundly influence the water environment of the basin. The integrated MIKE 11 model system comprising of a rainfall-runoff model (NAM), a non-point load evaluation model (LOAD), a hydrodynamic model (MIKE 11 HD) and a water quality model (ECOLab) was applied to investigate the impact of the Middle Route of the South–North Water Diversion Project on the Han River and the effectiveness of the 2 proposed mitigation projects, the 22 wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) and the Yangtze–Han Water Diversion Project. The study concludes that business as usual will lead to a continuing rapid deterioration of the water quality of the Han River. Implementation of the Middle Route of the South–North Water Diversion Project in 2010 will bring disastrous consequence in the form of the remarkably elevated pollution level and high risk of algae bloom in the middle and lower reaches. The proposed WWTPs will merely lower the pollution level in the reach by around 10%, while the Yangtze–Han Water Diversion Project can significantly improve the water quality in the downstream 200-km reach. The results reveal that serious water quality problem will emerge in the middle reach between Xiangfan and Qianjiang in the future. Implementation of the South–North Water Diversion Project (phase II) in 2030 will further exacerbate the problem. In order to effectively improve the water quality of the Han River, it is suggested that nutrient removal processes should be adopted in the proposed WWTPs, and the pollution load from the non-point sources, especially the load from the upstream Henan Province, should be effectively controlled.