South Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Research Articles

Synchronous decadal climate variability in the tropical Central Pacific and tropical South Atlantic

Pantropical climate interactions across ocean basins operate on a wide range of timescales and can improve the accuracy of climate predictions. Here, we show in observations that Central Pacific (CP) El Niño-like sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies have coevolved with tropical South Atlantic SST anomalies on a quasi-decadal (~10-year) timescale over the past seven decades. During the austral autumn–winter season, decadal warm SSTs in the tropical CP effectively induce tropical SST cooling in the South Atlantic, mainly by strengthening the South Atlantic subtropical anticyclone via an extratropical atmospheric wave teleconnection in the southern hemisphere. Partially coupled pacemaker simulations corroborate the observational findings, indicating that tropical CP decadal SSTs play a primary pacing role, while Atlantic feedback is of secondary importance throughout the study period. Our results suggest that the tropical CP could be an important source of decadal predictability for tropical South Atlantic SST and the surrounding climate.

Enhanced interaction between ENSO and the South Atlantic subtropical dipole over the past four decades

AbstractThis study investigates the relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the subtropical Atlantic Ocean, as represented by the Southern Atlantic subtropical dipole (SASD), and SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean, identified by the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Contrary to the previously held notion of a weak relationship between SASD and ENSO as suggested by earlier literature, our analysis reveals a substantial inverse correlation between the two. This correlation exhibits significant multi‐decadal variability, which has notably intensified over the most recent two decades compared with the preceding two decades. This intensification in the SASD–ENSO inverse correlation may be attributed to the shift in ENSO regime from predominance of eastern Pacific El Niño to central Pacific El Niño events around the turn of the century. This transition triggers wavetrains that propagate along different paths, consequently influencing the South Atlantic subtropical high and inducing alterations in anomalous SST patterns in the subtropical Atlantic Ocean. These findings advance our comprehension of the interactions between South Atlantic and Pacific SST variations, which strongly influence rainfall patterns, particularly in South America and southern Africa. Understanding such teleconnection holds promise for improving sub‐seasonal to seasonal precipitation predictions in these regions.

The South Atlantic Dipole via multichannel singular spectrum analysis

This study analyzes coupled atmosphere–ocean variability in the South Atlantic Ocean. To do so, we characterize the spatio-temporal variability of annual mean sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-level pressure (SLP) using Multichannel Singular Spectrum Analysis (M-SSA). We applied M-SSA to ERA5 reanalysis data (1959–2022) of South Atlantic SST and SLP, both individually and jointly, and identified a nonlinear trend, as well as two climate oscillations. The leading oscillation, with a period of 13 years, consists of a basin-wide southwest–northeast dipole and is observed both in the individual variables and in the coupled analysis. This mode is reminiscent of the already known South Atlantic Dipole, and it is probably related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and to El Niño–Southern Oscillation in the Pacific Ocean. The second oscillation has a 5-year period and also displays a dipolar structure. The main difference between the spatial structure of the decadal, 13-year, and the interannual, 5-year mode is that, in the first one, the SST cold tongue region in the southeast Atlantic’s Cape Basin is included in the pole closer to the equator. Together, these two oscillatory modes, along with the trend, capture almost 40% of the total interannual variability of the SST and SLP fields, and of their co-variability. These results provide further insights into the spatio-temporal evolution of SST and SLP variability in the South Atlantic, in particular as it relates to the South Atlantic Dipole and its predictability.

Remote effect of tropical south Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies on April–June accumulated cyclone energy over the western North Pacific

Global processes and their teleconnections, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), have been shown to be a large driver of interannual changes in accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclones (TCs), with higher ACE during El Niño and lower ACE during La Niña. However, it remains uncertain whether interannual changes in WNP TC ACE are modulated by sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in other oceans. This study finds a significant negative correlation between WNP TC ACE during the early season (April–June) and simultaneous SSTAs over the tropical south Atlantic (TSA) in 1970–2021. On average, in warm TSA years, basinwide April–June ACE is significantly lower, with significant ACE decreases mainly occurring over the region spanning 5°–30°N, 115°–150°E. This is a result of reduced TC frequency, intensity and duration, due to a remote modulation of WNP environmental conditions by TSA SSTAs. In warm TSA years, there are significant decreases in 700–500-hPa relative humidity, 850-hPa relative vorticity and 200-hPa divergence and significant increases in 850–200-hPa vertical wind shear over the portion of the WNP with significant ACE reductions. These environmental changes can be linked to an anomalous Walker circulation induced by TSA SSTAs.

New insights into the biennial-to-multidecadal variability of the water level fluctuation in Lake Titicaca in the 20th century

The water disponibility of Lake Titicaca is important for local ecosystems, domestic water, industry, fishing, agriculture, and tourism in Peru and Bolivia. However, the water level variability in Lake Titicaca (LTWL) still needs to be understood. The fluctuations of LTWL during the 1921–2018 period are investigated using continuous wavelet techniques on high- and low-pass filters of monthly time series, ERA-20C reanalysis, sea surface temperature (SST), and water level. We also built multiple linear regression (MLR) models based on SST indices to identify the main drivers of the LTWL variability. LTWL features annual (12 months), biennial (22–28 months), interannual (80–108 months), decadal (12.75–14.06 years), interdecadal (24.83–26.50 years), and multidecadal (30–65 years) signals. The high- and low-frequency components of the LTWL are triggered by the humidity transport from the lowland toward the Lake Titicaca basin, although different forcings could cause it. The biennial band is associated with SST anomalies over the southeastern tropical Atlantic Ocean that strengthen the Bolivian High-Nordeste Low system. The interannual band is associated with the southern South Atlantic SST anomalies, which modulate the position of the Bolivian High. According to the MLR models, the decadal and interdecadal components of the LTWL can be explained by the linear combination of the decadal and interdecadal variability of the Pacific and Atlantic SST anomalies (r > 0.83, p < 0.05). In contrast, the multidecadal component of the LTWL is driven by the multidecadal component of the North Atlantic SST anomalies (AMO) and the southern South Atlantic SST anomalies. Moreover, the monthly time series of LTWL exhibits four breakpoints. The signs of the first four trends follow the change of phases of the multidecadal component of LTWL, while the fifth trend is zero attributable to the diminished amplitude of the interdecadal component of LTWL.

On the Decadal Changes of the Interannual Relationship Between ENSO and Tropical South Atlantic SST in Boreal Summer

AbstractThis study aims to investigate the underlying mechanisms driving changes in the contemporaneous relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and tropical South Atlantic (TSA) sea surface temperatures (SST) during boreal summer over the past century. Our findings indicate that the negative TSA–ENSO relationship is primarily attributed to persistent ENSO years rather than ENSO transition or development years. This is because of the distinct anomalies observed in both spring ENSO and the tropical North Atlantic (TNA) during ENSO persistent years, whose impacts on summer TSA are of the same sign. Thus, their combined effects lead to a strong TSA anomaly that is opposite to that of ENSO. On a decadal timescale, the frequency of persistent ENSO occurrence can explain the fluctuation of the ENSO–TSA relationship over the past century. These findings enhance our comprehension of the relationship between summer ENSO and the tropical Atlantic SST.

Characterizing Atlantic interhemispheric teleconnection established by South American monsoon in austral summer

This study aims to characterize the interhemispheric teleconnection pattern, which is established by the South America (SA) summer monsoon over the Atlantic Ocean during January and February, and referred it as the Atlantic symmetric pattern (ASP). The ASP is characterized using the leading mode of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability of the Southwest Atlantic Ocean, where strong convection-SST coupling occurs. The pattern is manifested as two anomalous cyclonic-anticyclonic-cyclonic circulation trains aligned meridionally over the Atlantic Ocean, with a distinct SST dipole of the Southwest Atlantic Ocean and a tripole of the North Atlantic Ocean. The interhemispheric wave trains of the ASP are excited as a Gill-type response to convective activity in the SA summer monsoon, as confirmed in linear baroclinic model. Complementing previous studies on observed interhemispheric connection in the Atlantic, our findings highlight the importance of characterizing the ASP and its role in linking the South Atlantic SST, the SA summer monsoon, and North Atlantic climate. Further research is warranted to explore the impacts of the ASP on the Northern Hemisphere and its interactions with other climatic modes.

Links between precipitation patterns over eastern tropical South America and productivity in the western tropical South Atlantic Ocean during the last deglacial

The possibility of a collapse (or marked weakening) of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) within a few centuries boosted the interest of the scientific community on the responses of different compartments of the climate system to past AMOC collapses (or marked weakening). The most recent examples of such periods are Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1,18-15 ka BP; near-collapsed AMOC) and the Younger Dryas (YD, 12.9-11.7 ka BP; markedly weakened AMOC). Here, we present data from elemental ratios, spectral reflectance, organic biomarkers, sea surface temperatures and planktonic foraminiferal assemblage from two marine sediment cores recovered from the western tropical South Atlantic Ocean spanning the last ca. 20 kyr. The recovered sediments record the responses of eastern tropical South American hydroclimate, western tropical South Atlantic productivity and sea surface temperatures to changes in AMOC strength associated with HS1 and the YD. Our data show that both periods were characterized by wetter conditions over eastern tropical South America associated with increased continental runoff compared to the Last Glacial Maximum. High sea surface temperatures during HS1 and the YD are in line with marked AMOC decreases that led to heat accumulation in the surface layer of the western South Atlantic Ocean, facilitating increased precipitation over eastern tropical South America. Our data demonstrate for the first time that intense runoff during HS1, and hence nutrient transfer to the ocean, affected the pelagic ecosystem, likely increasing primary productivity in the otherwise oligotrophic western tropical South Atlantic Ocean. Our study demonstrates a tight coupling between marine and terrestrial processes in the eastern South American realm during periods of strong climate instability.

Decadal variability in the austral summer precipitation over the Central Andes: Observations and the empirical‐statistical downscaling model

AbstractThe decadal variability in summer precipitation over the Central Andes (10°–30°S) is investigated from 1921 to 2010 using low‐pass filtered time series of the central and eastern El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Pacific (C and E) indices, the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) index, the Atlantic SST indices, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, and ERA‐20C reanalysis. Additionally, an empirical‐statistical downscaling (ESD) model was built. A rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) analysis shows that the first leading mode of precipitation (RPC1) represents 38.2% of the total decadal variance. RPC2, RCP3, and RPC4 represent 18.8, 12.8, and 9.7% of the total decadal variance, respectively. Furthermore, RPC1 features highest loadings over most of the region. RPC2 features a dipole of highest loadings over the southernmost Bolivian Altiplano and lowest loadings over the northwestern Argentinian Andes. Conversely, RPC3 presents highest loadings over the eastern‐central Bolivian Altiplano and northwestern Argentinian Andes. RPC4 features highest loadings over the southern Bolivian Andes. RPC1 and RPC3 wet summers are associated with moisture transport from the Amazon basin, but RPC1 features the strengthening upper‐level Bolivian high‐Nordeste low system over South America. Conversely, RPC2 and RPC4 wet summers are associated with local processes induced by southward displacement of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone and warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the Indian Ocean, respectively. According to the ESD model, the decadal variability in the central and eastern Pacific (CP and EP) and Atlantic Ocean reproduces the decadal component of the DJF precipitation over most of the Central Andes.

Linkage between cross-equatorial potential vorticity flux and surface air temperature over the mid–high latitudes of Eurasia during boreal spring

The source of potential vorticity (PV) for the global domain is located at the Earth’s surface. PV in one hemisphere can exchange with the other through cross-equatorial PV flux (CEPVF). This study investigates the features of the climatic mean CEPVF, the connection in interannual CEPVF with the surface thermal characteristics, and the associated mechanism. Results indicate that the process of positive (negative) PV carried by a northerly (southerly) wind leads to the climatologically overwhelming negative CEPVF over almost the entire equatorial cross-section, while the change of the zonal circulation over the equator is predominately responsible for CEPVF variation. By introducing the concept of “PV circulation” (PVC), it is demonstrated that the interannual CEPVF over the equator is closely linked to the notable uniform anomalies of spring cold surface air temperature (SAT) over the mid–high latitudes of Eurasia by virtue of the PVC, the PV-θ mechanism, and the surface positive feedback. Further analysis reveals that equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) forcing, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and tropical South Atlantic uniform SST, can directly drive anomalous CEPVF by changing the zonal circulation over the equator, thereby influencing SAT in the Northern Hemisphere. All results indicate that the equilibrium linkage between CEPVF and extratropical SAT is mainly a manifestation of the response of extratropical SAT to tropical forcing by virtue of PVC, and that the perspective of PVC can provide a reasonably direct and simple connection of the circulation and climate between the tropics and the mid–high latitudes.

The anomalous wet 2020 southeast Brazil austral summer: Characterization and possible mechanisms

This paper analyzed the anomalous rainy austral summer of 2020 over the southeastern region of Brazil (SEB), investigating its possible mechanisms. The SEB experienced dry summers in the years before 2020; however, the austral summer of 2020 in this region was the wettest since 1991. A wave train starting from the Indian Ocean to the Pacific Ocean, plus a wave train from the tropical north (U-shape), and another from the western equatorial Pacific (PSA-like) contributed to an anomalous anticyclonic circulation at high levels southward South America. This merged wave train continued its path with an anomalous cyclonic circulation over the southern region of Brazil and the state of Sao Paulo, and anticyclonic northward, enhancing (inhibiting) convection over SEB (southern Brazil). Besides, the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) pattern was in a positive phase, and there were negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies near SEB and Argentina, contributing for the configuration over the continent. Comparisons of the main differences between the austral summer of 2019 (dry) and the summer of 2020 show there was no anomalous divergence at high levels over the Indian Ocean in 2019, triggering a wave train from this region to the Pacific. The two wave trains from the Pacific merged in an anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the southeastern Pacific, near the South American coast. The SAM pattern was neutral in 2019; however, there were positive SST anomalies near SEB, southern Brazil and Argentina coastal. The South Atlantic SST and the wave trains generated an anticyclonic anomalous circulation over the southern Region of Brazil and cyclonic northward, in opposition to the 2020 configuration.

Variations in the South Atlantic Convergence Zone over the mid-to-late Holocene inferred from speleothem δ18O in central Brazil

Most precipitation records within the South American Summer Monsoon (SASM) domain bear a trend following the Southern Hemisphere summer insolation (SHSI). However, a growing number of past hydroclimate records have revealed a high degree of spatial variability in rainfall trends across tropical South America. Here we report a new speleothem δ18O record from central Brazil that underlies the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ). Our record reveals a nearly invariant rainfall trend over the mid-to-late Holocene, suggesting that the SACZ has maintained its latitudinal position and intensity despite the rising SHSI and consequently increasing monsoon strength in the core SASM zone. The record also shows no obvious response in SACZ rainfall to millennial-scale temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic. Instead, the long-term SACZ behaviour is likely dominantly influenced by subtropical South Atlantic sea surface temperatures, which can affect the position and intensity of moisture convergence over the continent. Our central Brazil speleothem record suggests that orbital-scale insolation change is not the dominant control of long-term SACZ rainfall trends. Alternative drivers of hydroclimate change need to be explored to account for regional differences in rainfall patterns within the SASM system.

Inter‐Basin Interaction Between Variability in the South Atlantic Ocean and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation

AbstractOceanic variability that interacts with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been well identified in most ocean basins; however, the effect of variability over the South Atlantic (SA) on the ENSO is unknown. This study demonstrates that dominant mode of subtropical SA sea surface temperature (SST) variability during the boreal winter, referred to as the South Atlantic Subtropical Dipole (SASD), contributes to occurrence of an El Niño a year later. During a positive SASD, low‐tropospheric anticyclonic circulation anomalies over the mid‐latitude SA reduce convective activities over southeastern South America. The low‐tropospheric divergence anomalies associated with the reduced convection attenuate the occurrence of South American Low‐Level Jet, and moisture supply is directed along the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ). The increased precipitation over the SACZ leads to an anomalous surface easterly that lowers the SST over the equatorial Atlantic and eventually modulates the zonal Walker circulation, thereby favoring El Niño development.

Remote Influence of the Midlatitude South Atlantic Variability in Spring on Antarctic Summer Sea Ice

AbstractRelationship between Antarctic sea ice and the Southern Annular Mode and tropical climate variability has been widely studied. Focusing on the midlatitude oceanic frontal zones, this study identifies a fingerprint of South Atlantic (SA) variability in the Antarctic summer sea ice. The interaction between spring SA sea surface temperature (SST) and summer storm‐track activity modulates the hemispheric atmospheric circulation, which in turn alters Antarctic summer sea ice concentration (SIC) through thermal and wind‐driven forcing. Specifically, warm SST anomalies in the western SA frontal zone, corresponding to the strengthened SST front, cause the increased SIC in the eastern Ross Sea via anomalous cold air advection and offshore drift of sea ice. The opposite effect (i.e., warm air advection and onshore ice drift) results in the decreased SIC in the northwestern Weddell Sea. The findings also imply a potential impact of the midlatitude SA variability to the South Pole air temperature variability.

Revisiting remote drivers of the 2014 drought in South-Eastern Brazil

South-Eastern Brazil experienced a devastating drought associated with significant agricultural losses in austral summer 2014. The drought was linked to the development of a quasi-stationary anticyclone in the South Atlantic in early 2014 that affected local precipitation patterns over South-East Brazil. Previous studies have suggested that the unusual blocking was triggered by tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and, more recently, by convection over the Indian Ocean related to the Madden–Julian Oscillation. Further investigation of the proposed teleconnections appears crucial for anticipating future economic impacts. In this study, we use numerical experiments with an idealized atmospheric general circulation model forced with the observed 2013/2014 SST anomalies in different ocean basins to understand the dominant mechanism that initiated the 2014 South Atlantic anticyclonic anomaly. We show that a forcing with global 2013/2014 SST anomalies enhances the chance for the occurrence of positive geopotential height anomalies in the South Atlantic. However, further sensitivity experiments with SST forcings in separate ocean basins suggest that neither the Indian Ocean nor tropical Pacific SST anomalies alone have contributed significantly to the anomalous atmospheric circulation that led to the 2014 South-East Brazil drought. The model study rather points to an important role of remote forcing from the South Pacific, local South Atlantic SSTs, and internal atmospheric variability in driving the persistent blocking over the South Atlantic.

Essential Role of the Midlatitude South Atlantic Variability in Altering the Southern Hemisphere Summer Storm Tracks

AbstractStorm tracks are a pivotal component in extratropical weather and climate. The sea surface temperature (SST) front in the midlatitude South Indian Ocean has been found to anchor the climatological core of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) storm tracks. However, on interannual‐to‐decadal timescales, observational and modeling evidence is presented here that the strengthened SST front in the midlatitude western South Atlantic (SA) can intensify the SH summer storm tracks by supplying more baroclinic energy, which overwhelms contributions from other oceanic frontal zones. Idealized experiments suggest that such a predominant impact on synoptic storms lies in the strengthened SA SST front acting in concert with the favorable thermal background produced in the presence of the Andes (i.e., enhancements of downstream low‐level temperature gradients and synoptic temperature variability). Our findings imply that oceanic variability in the western SA frontal zone could be a remote regulator of the SH extratropical summer climate variability.

Freshwater forcing control on early-Holocene South American monsoon

Climate anomalies due to Lake Agassiz outbursts and Hudson Bay ice dome melting are commonly considered triggers of North American atmospheric cooling. However, in the Southern Hemisphere, these freshwater fluxes are mostly associated with increased precipitation and a possible intensification of the South American Monsoon System (SAMS). Here, we tested how the SAMS responded to early-Holocene meltwater events. Based on both proxy data and simulations, we find that sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and precipitation indicate a freshwater-driven strengthening of the SAMS due to a weakening of the South Atlantic subtropical dipole. Simulated SAMS strengthening accounts for up to 50% of the variance in early-Holocene precipitation in South America. In turn, changes in the South Atlantic Subtropical Dipole accounts for up to 31% of the variance in South Atlantic SSTs. Additionally, we propose that the stronger SAMS in the early Holocene might have been due to a freshwater-driven weakening of the southeasterly trade winds. Slower trade winds weaken the zonal and meridional surface water transport, concentrating warm waters in the northeastern South Atlantic.

Relationship between Rainfall Pattern in North Central and Southern Nigeria and Some Tropical Climate Systems

Monthly rainfall data from meteorological stations in Nigeria are analyzed from 1951 to 1992, to establish their relationship with some Tropical climate systems. The climate systems include Tropical South Atlantic (TSA) sea surface temperature index, North Atlantic Ocean (NAO) atmospheric index, Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) sea surface temperature index, Central India Precipitation (CIP) and and Outgoing Longwave Radiation Anomaly (OLRA)). The rainfall pattern was given in terms of the August break (quantified in terms of the monsoon break intensity (MBI) and annual rainfall anomaly index (RAI). Partial correlation analysis was carried out to determine the effect of the tropical climate systems on the linear association between them and the stations in Nigeria. Our results show that the rainfall anomalies although sometimes intense do not have predictable patterns. The tele connection between CIP and total rainfall in Nigeria suggests that the rainfall patterns in Nigeria is likely to be modulated by the Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) connecting rainfall pattern in Central India to that in Nigeria. The August break is observed to be highly variable and does not show a clear discernable pattern of variability. Its variability may be connected with multiple forcings from ocean and mesoscale circulations.

Forcing of western tropical South Atlantic sea surface temperature across three glacial-interglacial cycles

Abstract The western tropical Atlantic (WTA) supplies warm and saline waters to the upper-limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and may store excess heat and salinity during periods of AMOC slowdown. Since previous sea surface temperature (SST) reconstructions from the WTA typically focus on the Last Glacial Maximum and the last deglaciation, additional long-term records spanning multiple glacial-interglacial transitions are needed in order to elucidate the drivers of long-term WTA SST variability. We performed Mg/Ca analyses on the surface-dwelling planktic foraminifera Globigerinoides ruber (pink) from a sediment core raised from the southern WTA to reconstruct SST changes over the past 322 kyr. We evaluate the relative importance of atmospheric pCO2, AMOC strength and trade-wind intensity in driving the thermal evolution of the WTA across three glacial-interglacial cycles. Our results indicate a lack of pronounced glacial-interglacial variability in the SST record, prompting us to exclude atmospheric pCO2 as a direct driver of SST variations in the southern WTA. Similarly, we conclude that variations in AMOC strength also likely did not have a strong influence on long-term WTA SST, based on the low and relatively stable interhemispheric SST gradient over the past 322 kyr. Our results reveal high-amplitude variability in zonal SST gradients within the (sub)tropical South Atlantic and similarities between the long-term patterns of the intrahemispheric meridional SST gradient and our SST record. Based on these findings, we propose that changes in the intrahemispheric meridional SST gradient modulate southeast trade wind intensity, which in turn drives variations in zonal SST gradients and southern WTA SSTs.

On the role of the Atlantic Ocean in forcing tropic cyclones in the Arabian Sea

This study examines the impacts of tropical South Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on the frequency of the Arabian Sea tropical cyclones (TCs) during the pre-monsoon season (May–June) using observations and climate model experiments. There is a statistically significant association between the Atlantic SST anomalies and the frequency of Arabian Sea TCs during May–June of 1979–2016 based on the observations. These results can be explained from a physical perspective through the classic Matsuno-Gill responses to the Atlantic SST forcing, leading to changes in vertical wind shear in the Arabian Sea. The reduced vertical wind shear related to the Atlantic SST warming is associated with anomalous upper-level westerlies and lower-level easterlies. The physical mechanisms identified in the observations are strongly supported by a suite of experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model. Overall, the experiments reproduce the observed Matsuno-Gill responses, which are responsible for changes in vertical wind shear, lending confidence to the strong impacts of the Atlantic SST anomalies on the frequency of pre-monsoon Arabian Sea TCs.