South Asian Summer Monsoon Variability Research Articles

Low‐Latitude Forcing and High‐Latitude Response of the South Asian Summer Monsoon Through the Pliocene

AbstractPrecipitation carried by the Asian summer monsoon influences the livelihoods of millions of people, and there has been a great deal of work trying to reveal the driving mechanisms behind past changes. Compared to the widely studied East Asian summer monsoon, the behavior of the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) in the Pliocene is still not well known. Here, we present new high‐resolution geochemical (Rb/Sr and Ti) data from the lacustrine Yuanmou Basin (Southwest China) spanning the Pliocene to early Pleistocene (4.30–2.0 Ma) that permit detailed analysis of hydroclimate changes related to orbital‐scale SASM variability. We find a clear weakening of the SASM at 2.9–2.75 Ma, which may be related to warming in the high‐latitude southern hemisphere and a weakening of atmospheric circulation at low latitudes over the Indian Ocean. Our results highlight that 405‐ and 100‐Kyr eccentricity forcing had a dominant role in driving climate change in the Yuanmou Basin during the Pliocene to early Pleistocene. Based on analysis of our data from the Yuanmou Basin, coupled with marine data from the Arabian Sea, we suggest that orbital‐scale SASM variability during the Pliocene was mainly controlled by changes in low‐latitude insolation. In addition, oscillations of the West Antarctic ice sheet after ∼3.5 Ma also significantly influenced the evolution of the SASM on orbital time scales.

Remote Insolation Forcing of Orbital‐Scale South Asian Summer Monsoon Variability

AbstractWhether the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) is controlled by local or remote insolation at the orbital band remains uncertain. Here, we perform a transient simulation forced by Earth's orbital parameters between 400 and 350 ka BP, a period characterized by significant contrast between local and remote insolation, to identify the SASM's response to insolation forcing. Simulation results suggest that the primary driver of orbital‐scale SASM variability is the Northern Hemisphere high‐latitude June insolation, as opposed to local insolation. High June insolation in the Southern Hemisphere might reduce the SASM intensity. Remote insolation influences the SASM by altering the latitudinal thermal gradient and, consequently, the meridional position of the South Asian high (SAH). The SAH is associated with intense convection and hence drives the meridional shift of the intertropical convergence zone and the SASM rain belt. Thus, orbital‐scale SASM variability is strongly related to remote insolation forcing.

Organic carbon preservation in Southeastern Arabian Sea sediments since mid‐Holocene: Implications to South Asian Summer Monsoon variability

AbstractThe earlier studies show a contrasting long‐term trend of the South Asian Summer Monsoon (SASM) after attaining the precessional forcing induced mid‐Holocene maximum. The increasing total organic carbon (TOC) concentration of marine sediments in the Southeastern Arabian Sea (SEAS) has been interpreted to imply strengthening SASM since mid‐Holocene by a few studies. However, TOC concentration is also influenced by redox conditions, sedimentation rate, and an influx of terrigenous matter depending on the regional settings. So, it needs to be ascertained whether the TOC concentration of the sediments in the SEAS is a signal of productivity related to the SASM strength or preservation. Therefore, we studied multiple proxies (TOC, total nitrogen, atomic C/N, δ13Corg, CaCO3, and major and trace elements concentration) for determining the productivity, redox conditions, detrital supply, and provenance in a sediment core from the upper continental slope of the SEAS spanning the past ∼4700 years at centennial scale resolution. The present study shows that the observed increase in the TOC values since the mid‐Holocene is a result of better preservation caused by increased sedimentation rate and enhanced reducing conditions. We further show that the SASM has been declining since mid‐Holocene after attaining a precession‐forced maximum, which corroborates the earlier model ensemble studies.

Revisiting reconstructed Indian monsoon rainfall variations during the last ∼25 ka from planktonic foraminiferal δ18O from the Eastern Arabian Sea

A careful reanalysis of recently published large body of surface seawater salinity and δ18O data indicates that the variations in the surface seawater δ18O of the Eastern Arabian Sea appear to be governed mainly by the influx of low salinity water through the Winter Monsoon Current from the relatively fresher Bay of Bengal, and transported northwards by the West India Coastal Current. Armed with this “calibration” for the present day, we revisit the south Asian summer monsoon variability during the past ∼25 ka by compiling high resolution fossil planktonic foraminiferal δ18O data from a large number of well dated sediment cores from the Eastern Arabian Sea. We clearly demonstrate that there is no evidence to believe that the south Asian summer monsoon steadily declined during the Holocene as reported in a few earlier papers from the Western Arabian Sea and speleothems from Oman. On the contrary, a majority of sediment core data corroborate the inference of a much earlier paper (Sarkar et al., 2000) of a steadily increasing monsoon rain during the Holocene. That the south Asian monsoons were driven solely by past insolation change appears invalid.

South Asian summer monsoon variability during the last ∼54 kyrs inferred from surface water salinity and river runoff proxies

The past variability of the South Asian Monsoon is mostly known from records of wind strength over the Arabian Sea while high-resolution paleorecords from regions of strong monsoon precipitation are still lacking. Here, we present records of past monsoon variability obtained from sediment core SK 168/GC-1, which was collected at the Alcock Seamount complex in the Andaman Sea. We utilize the ecological habitats of different planktic foraminiferal species to reconstruct freshwater-induced stratification based on paired Mg/Ca and δ18O analyses and to estimate seawater δ18O (δ18Osw). The difference between surface and thermocline temperatures (ΔT) and δ18Osw (Δδ18Osw) is used to investigate changes in upper ocean stratification. Additionally, Ba/Ca in G. sacculifer tests is used as a direct proxy for riverine runoff and sea surface salinity (SSS) changes related to monsoon precipitation on land. Our Δδ18Osw time series reveals that upper ocean salinity stratification did not change significantly throughout the last glacial suggesting little influence of NH insolation changes. The strongest increase in temperature gradients between the mixed layer and the thermocline is recorded for the mid-Holocene and indicate the presence of a significantly shallower thermocline. In line with previous work, the δ18Osw and Ba/Ca records demonstrate that monsoon climate during the LGM was characterized by a significantly weaker southwest monsoon circulation and strongly reduced runoff. Based on our data the South Asian Summer Monsoon (SAM) over the Irrawaddyy strengthened gradually after the LGM beginning at ∼18 ka. This is some 3 kyrs before an increase of the Ba/Ca record from the Arabian Sea and indicates that South Asian Monsoon climate dynamics are more complex than the simple N-S displacement of the ITCZ as generally described for other regions. Minimum δ18Osw values recorded during the mid-Holocene are in phase with Ba/Ca marking a stronger monsoon precipitation, which is consistent with model simulations.

An Assessment of the South Asian Summer Monsoon Variability for Present and Future Climatologies Using a High Resolution Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.3) under the AR5 Scenarios

We assessed the present and future climatologies of mean summer monsoon over South Asia using a high resolution regional climate model (RegCM4) with a 25 km horizontal resolution. In order to evaluate the performance of the RegCM4 for the reference period (1976–2005) and for the far future (2070–2099), climate change projections under two greenhouse gas representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were made, the lateral boundary conditions being provided by the geophysical fluid dynamic laboratory global model (GFDL-ESM2M). The regional climate model (RCM) improves the simulation of seasonal mean temperature and precipitation patterns compared to driving global climate model (GCM) during present-day climate conditions. The regional characteristic features of South Asian summer monsoon (SASM), like the low level jet stream and westerly flow over the northern the Arabian Sea, are well captured by the RegCM4. In spite of some discrepancies, the RegCM4 could simulate the Tibetan anticyclone and the direction of the tropical easterly jet reasonably well at 200 hPa. The projected temperature changes in 2070–2099 relative to 1976–2005 for GFDL-ESM2M show increased warming compared to RegCM4. The projected patterns at the end of 21st century shows an increase in precipitation over the Indian Peninsula and the Western Ghats. The possibilities of excessive precipitation include increased southwesterly flow in the wet period and the effect of model bias on climate change. However, the spatial patterns of precipitation are decreased in intensity and magnitude as the monsoon approaches the foothills of the Himalayas. The RegCM4-projected dry conditions over northeastern India are possibly related to the anomalous anticyclonic circulations in both scenarios.

Daily modes of South Asian summer monsoon variability in the NCEP climate forecast system

The leading modes of daily variability of the Indian summer monsoon in the climate forecast system (CFS), a coupled general circulation model, of the National Centers for Environmental Predictions (NCEP) are examined. The space–time structures of the daily modes are obtained by applying multi-channel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) on the daily anomalies of rainfall. Relations of the daily modes to intraseasonal and interannual variability of the monsoon are investigated. The CFS has three intraseasonal oscillations with periods around 106, 57 and 30 days with a combined variance of 7%. The 106-day mode has spatial structure and propagation features similar to the northeastward propagating 45-day mode in the observations except for its longer period. The 57-day mode, despite being in the same time scale as of the observations has poor eastward propagation. The 30-day mode is northwestward propagating and is similar to its observational counterpart. The 106-day mode is specific to the model and should not be mistaken for a new scale of variability in observations. The dominant interannual signal is related to El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and, unlike in the observations, has maximum variance in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Although the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode was not obtained as a separate mode in the rainfall, the ENSO signal has good correlations with the dipole variability, which, therefore, indicates the dominance of ENSO in the model. The interannual variability is largely determined by the ENSO signal over the regions where it has maximum variance. The interannual variability of the intraseasonal oscillations is smaller in comparison.

South Asian Summer Monsoon Variability in a Model with Doubled Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration

Doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration in a global coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model produced increased surface temperatures and evaporation and greater mean precipitation in the south Asian summer monsoon region. As a partial consequence, interannual variability of area-averaged monsoon rainfall was enhanced. Consistent with the climate sensitivity results from the model, observations showed a trend of increased interannual variability of Indian monsoon precipitation associated with warmer land and ocean temperatures in the monsoon region.