Tsunami Source Research Articles

Tsunami hazard induced by a submarine landslide in the Tagus delta off Lisbon (Portugal)

AbstractSubmarine landslides can be a major source of tsunamis, with waves highly dependent of the properties of both the landslide and the marine domain. This study investigates the tsunamigenesis of a shallow-water submarine landslide, recently mapped at the mouth of the Tagus delta River, off Lisbon, Portugal. The Tagus delta landslide is estimated to be 8 ky old, with a depositional maximum thickness of ~ 20 m and a volume of approximately 0.27 km3, extending over more than 9 km in length and 3 km in width. We assess the tsunamigenic potential and hazard of this possible early Holocene landslide using numerical simulations over high resolution reconstructed paleo-bathymetry, and project a similar future landslide scenario under the present-day conditions. Results show that both paleo- and future landslide scenarios are tsunamigenic, posing a significant hazard to the nearest coasts of Lisbon and surrounding areas. At the source region, the modelled tsunami reached heights of 0.8 m (paleo-scenario) and 1.45 m (future-scenario), increasing to approximately 2 m (both scenarios) as it propagated towards Lisbon’s coastline. This study is a first attempt to address the tsunamigenic potential of a submarine landslide occurring in a shallow water environment of the Portuguese margin domain. The results reinforce the need to include these small, but frequent, events and their induced tsunamis in marine geo-hazard assessments of the region.

Harnessing electromagnetic data for tsunami source estimation: a comprehensive review.

Ocean-bottom pressure gauges are widely used for tsunami observations due to their established accuracy and stability. Recent advancements reveal that the magnetic field fluctuates when a large tsunami passes over the ocean, suggesting potential alternatives to pressure gauges in the form of ocean-bottom electromagnetometers (OBEMs). This article offers a comprehensive synthesis of recent findings concerning tsunami magnetic fields and their utility in tsunami source estimation. In addition, we scrutinize the effectiveness of tsunami observations employing OBEMs. Despite the promise of electromagnetometers, it is worth noting that the background noise inherent in electromagnetic observations tends to be approximately 10 times greater than that of pressure observations within the critical tsunami frequency bands. The Earth's magnetic field sporadically disrupts tsunami magnetic fields, presenting a potential limitation to the utility of electromagnetometers in tsunami detection when compared with pressure gauges. Nevertheless, our investigation underscores the potential of electromagnetic observations in detecting tsunamis propagating over the ocean at magnitudes of a few centimetres. An invaluable advantage of electromagnetometers over pressure monitoring lies in their capability to observe tsunami velocity fields, suggesting a promising avenue for further research and development in tsunami observation technology.This article is part of the theme issue 'Magnetometric remote sensing of Earth and planetary oceans'.

The South Sandwich Tsunami of 12 August 2021: An Underestimated Widespread Tsunami Hazard Around the World

AbstractOn 12 August 2021 a large Mw 8.1 earthquake, detected by global seismic networks, occurred on the South Sandwich subduction zone in the southern Atlantic Ocean. Approximately 1.5 hr later, a tsunami was clearly recorded on King Edward Point coastal tide gauge (South Georgia Island), approximately 800 km north‐west of the earthquake location. Subsequently it was recorded on other coastal stations both in the Atlantic Ocean, and also in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. A careful and systematic analysis of coastal and deepwater sea‐level records highlights three points: (a) the tsunami propagated across four oceans following major submarine features; (b) despite its very low amplitude, it reached as far as the Canary Islands in the Atlantic Ocean, Hawaii and the US West coast as far as Alaska and the Aleutian Islands in the Pacific Ocean; (c) it was recorded twice on New Zealand DART system NZC, with one record of the tsunami from the East and one from the West. This event is an opportunity to highlight the lack of knowledge about the South Sandwich subduction region in terms of its tsunamigenic potential and the associated tsunami hazard in the Pacific ocean. It should lead to an improvement of national tsunami warning procedures, by including this region as a tsunami source zone, for neighboring regions but also for distant countries like New Zealand or French Polynesia.

The effect of earthquake fault rupture kinematics on tsunami generation: a numerical study of real events

Summary The study is devoted to the effect of the fault rupture kinematics in the earthquake source on tsunami generation. Sixteen events of 1992–2021 years are investigated. For each event, the kinematic tsunami source (bottom motion during the earthquake) and the static tsunami source (permanent bottom deformation) were calculated using the Finite Fault Models provided by the U.S. Geological Survey. For both sources, numerical tsunami simulations were carried out within the framework of linear long-wave theory. Comparison of the simulation results showed that in ten out of sixteen events, the energy of tsunami excited by the kinematic source is greater than that excited by the static source. The maximum energy amplification (9.1 per cent) is observed at the minimum ratio of average rupture velocity to long-wave velocity. The Illapel 2015 event has been investigated more thoroughly using dispersive tsunami models jagurs and cptm. This investigation showed that the kinematic source causes a spatial redistribution of tsunami amplitudes and a noticeable amplification of the high-frequency component in the time series of tsunami height. At some points along the Chilean coast, the difference between the kinematic and static calculations is more than 2 m.

Large seafloor rupture caused by the 1956 Amorgos tsunamigenic earthquake, Greece

In the Mediterranean Sea, the probability that a large earthquake-triggered tsunami will occur in the coming decades is high. Historical tsunami database informs us on their geographical occurrence but their sources, i.e., the faults that slipped during earthquakes and displaced the seafloor to generate tsunamis, are often unknown. Here we identify the submarine rupture of the Amorgos earthquake that on July 9, 1956, triggered the largest mediterranean tsunami in the past two centuries. Using submarines, we explored major normal faults in the epicentral area, and discovered a large surface rupture along the 75-km long Amorgos fault. The 9.8-16.8-m large seafloor offset is compatible with a Mw7.5 event. This finding prompts a reassessment of the largest (≥20 m) tsunami wave origin, previously attributed to earthquake-triggered submarine mass-wasting. It demonstrates that tsunami source can be determined several decades after an event, a key information to better assess future seismic and tsunami hazards.

Ancient Tsunami Records in the Viscous Remanent Magnetization of Reworked Boulders in the Kingdom of Tonga

AbstractThe movement history of boulders is crucial for the reconstruction of paleo‐tsunamis. We report findings from viscous remanent magnetization studies of the boulders on Tongatapu Island, aiming to reconstruct their reworkings. Two boulders exhibited viscous remanence, whereas two larger boulders lacked viscous components but exhibited stable remanence. Both the viscous and stable components deviated from the geomagnetic field direction. These observations indicate that: (a) the boulders with a viscous component were reworked before the latest event, which could have reworked all boulders, and (b) the magnitude of the latest event was larger than that of an earlier event. The reworked timing indicated that the event occurred between 3,000 years ago and the fifteenth century. The difference in the wave height required to move boulders on the eastern and western coasts suggests that the source of the earlier tsunami was likely an eruption due to volcanoes along the Tonga Ridge.

Source Geometry and Rupture Characteristics of the 20 February 2023 Mw 6.4 Hatay (Türkiye) Earthquake at Southwest Edge of the East Anatolian Fault

AbstractFollowing the catastrophic 6 February 2023 Mw 7.8 and Mw 7.6 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes in the East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ; southeast Türkiye), numerous aftershocks occurred along the major branches of this left‐lateral shear zone. The spatio‐temporal distribution of the earthquakes implied the stress‐triggering effects of co‐seismic ruptures on closely connected fault segments over large distances. On the 20 February 2023 two earthquakes with Mw 6.4 and Mw 5.2 struck Hatay (Türkiye) located near the Samandağ‐Antakya segment of the EAFZ. To understand the rupture evolution of these earthquakes, we first re‐located the aftershock sequence that occurred over a 3‐month period in the Hatay‐Syria region. A normal faulting mechanism with a significant amount of left‐lateral strike‐slip component at a shallow focal depth of 12 km was estimated for the 2023 Mw 6.4 earthquake from the inversion of seismological data. Our slip models describe a relatively simple and unilateral rupture propagation along about 36 km‐long active segments of the EAFZ. The co‐seismic horizontal displacements inferred from the Global Navigation Satellite System data are compatible with the oblique slip kinematics. Furthermore, we suggest that this earthquake did not produce notable tsunami waves on the adjacent coasts since the rupture plane did not extend to the seafloor of the Eastern Mediterranean with substantial amount of vertical displacement. We reckon that a future large earthquake (Mw ≥ 7.0) in the Hatay‐Syria region where increased stress was transferred to the fault segments of the EAFZ and the Dead Sea Fault Zone (DSFZ) after the 2023 earthquakes will be a probable source of tsunami at the coastal plains of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea region.

Successive Tsunamigenic Events Near Sofu Seamount Inferred From High‐Frequency Teleseismic P and Regional T Waves

AbstractAn unexpected major tsunami from the region near Sofu Seamount was observed on 8 October 2023. Sofu Seamount is located approximately 600 km from the coast of Japan. Due to far epicentral distances and the successive occurrence of seismic events, the conventional seismic analysis to reveal the accompanying seismic sequence cannot work well. We investigated high‐frequency teleseismic P and regional T waves from the accompanying seismic sequence during the tsunamigenic events near Sofu Seamount. Envelope shapes of teleseismic P and regional T waves were similar, indicating that T‐wave envelopes also reflected source properties of seismic sequence. During seismic events near Sofu Seamount, observed regional envelopes were characterized by weak body waves and large amplitude T waves with durations of 39–68 s. According to numerical simulations of seismic wave propagation using a realistic topography model, characteristics of T waves exhibit weak slope‐angle and strong source‐depth dependencies. Strong T waves with durations less than 60 s only appeared in results with sources at depths ≤0.5 km below the seafloor. We concluded that high‐frequency radiation of the accompanying seismic sequence during the tsunamigenic events near Sofu Seamount possibly occurred at shallower depths just below the seafloor. If seismic and tsunami sources coincide, shallower source depths might cause tsunamigenic uplifts. The observed peak seafloor uplifts and T‐wave amplitudes during tsunamigenic events were scaled. This result suggests the possibility of tsunami forecasting based on T‐wave amplitudes from submarine volcanoes.

Forearc crustal faults as tsunami sources in the upper plate of the Lesser Antilles subduction zone: the case study of the Morne Piton fault system

Abstract. In this study, alternatively to the megathrust, we identify upper-plate normal faults orthogonal to the trench as a possible tsunami source along the Lesser Antilles subduction zone. The Morne Piton fault system is such a trench-perpendicular upper crustal fault at the latitude of Guadeloupe. By means of seismic reflection, high-resolution bathymetry, remotely operated vehicle (ROV) imaging and dating, we reassess the slip rate of the Morne Piton fault since 7 Ma, i.e., its inception, and quantify an average rate of 0.25 mm yr−1 since ca. 1.2 Ma. This result divides by two previous estimations, increases the earthquake time recurrence and lowers the associated hazard. The ROV dive revealed a metric scarp with striae at the toe of the Morne Piton fault system, suggesting a recent fault rupture. We estimate a fault rupture area of ∼ 450–675 km2 and then a magnitude range for a maximum seismic event around Mw 6.5 ± 0.5, making this fault potentially tsunamigenic as the nearby Les Saintes fault responsible for a tsunami following the 2004 Mw 6.3 earthquake. Consequently, we simulate a multi-segment tsunami model representative of a worst-case scenario if all the identified Morne Piton fault segments ruptured together. Our model provides clues for the potential impact of local tsunamis on the surrounding coastal area as well as for local bathymetric controls on tsunami propagation. We illustrate that (i) shallow-water plateaus act as secondary sources and are responsible for a wrapping of the tsunami waves around the island of Marie-Galante; (ii) canyons indenting the shallow-water plateau slope break focus and enhance the wave height in front of the most touristic and populated town of the island; and (iii) the resonance phenomenon is observed within the Les Saintes archipelago, showing that the waves' frequency content is able to perturb the sea level for many hours after the seismic rupture.

What was the source of the nonseismic tsunami that occurred in Toyama Bay during the 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake

In recent years, there have been worldwide reports of massive tsunamis, drawing attention to how tsunamis are intensified by submarine landslides triggered by earthquakes. However, precise data on tsunamis caused by submarine landslides are scarce, leading to insufficient information for a thorough discussion of the characteristics of such tsunamis. On the other hand, during the Noto Peninsula earthquake (Mw7.5) that occurred in Japan on January 1, 2024, a nonseismic tsunami distinct from those originating from fault ruptures were observed. To investigate its characteristics, we analyzed tide/wave gauge records, video footage, and tsunami trace heights along the coast of Toyama Bay. Furthermore, we validated scenarios capable of reproducing the observed records using an integrated landslide–tsunami model. It was found that assuming the existence of 5 submarine landslides along the underwater canyons of Toyama Bay enabled the precise explanation of multiple types of data. Additionally, our study revealed that submarine landslides occurred approximately 50 s after the earthquake, coinciding with the peak ground shaking in Toyama Bay. Compared to the seismic tsunami originating solely from the Noto Peninsula offshore fault rupture, the subsequent tsunami triggered by submarine landslides amplified the tsunami height by approximately 30% along Toyama Bay.

Solving the puzzle of the 1996 Biak, Indonesia tsunami

On February 17, 1996, an earthquake (Mw=\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$${M}_{\ ext{w}}=$$\\end{document} 8.2) occurred northeast of Biak Island, Indonesia, and generated a tsunami. Interestingly, the tsunami runup on the southwest side of Biak Island, which did not face the epicenter, was higher than that on the side of the island facing the epicenter. It was earlier suggested that the earthquake triggered submarine landslides. However, this hypothesis remains unexplored and unconfirmed. In this study, tsunami arrival times obtained from eyewitness accounts were used to perform backward tsunami travel time modeling. Based on the backward tsunami travel time results and multibeam bathymetry, five submarine landslide candidates were identified: three located to the southwest of Biak Island and two to the south of the island. Our analysis indicates that tsunamis from a large submarine landslide off the southwest coast of Biak Island (SL 2) and a small submarine landslide off the south side of Biak Island (SL 4) contributed to the 1996 Biak tsunami event and came earlier than the main tsunami from the earthquake fault. Tsunami sources were earlier modeled only by fault parameters without considering submarine landslide sources. As a result, the models could not explain the observed runup and eyewitness tsunami arrival times for the southwest and south of Biak Island. To address this problem, we propose an approach that combines a submarine landslide model with a modified version of a previously proposed fault model. Our combined model explains the observed runup and eyewitness tsunami arrival times well (Aida’s index values of the model are K = 1.00 and κ\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\kappa$$\\end{document} = 1.44).Graphical abstract

Lacustrine mass movements in active tectonic settings: Lake tsunami sources in New Zealand's South Island

Lake tsunamis generated from subaerial and subaqueous mass movements can pose a significant hazard to lakeshore communities. However, current knowledge of lake tsunamis is derived from a limited number of studies, primarily in low-seismicity settings such as Switzerland and Norway. Underrepresented are studies from active tectonic settings, characterised by high relief, high sediment yields, and frequent seismic shaking that is likely to produce episodic subaerial and subaqueous mass movements with the potential to produce lake tsunamis. This study seeks to address this gap in our understanding through an examination of four lakes in the active tectonic region of New Zealand's South Island (Lake Rotoiti, Lake Rotoroa, Lake Brunner, and Lake Mapourika). High-resolution multibeam bathymetry and high-resolution seismic reflection data were used to identify and characterize the landforms and sediment associations of large and potentially tsunamigenic mass movements. A qualitative evaluation of the tsunamigenic capacity of the identified mass movements was undertaken using established empirical relationships between mass movement volumes and run-up heights. The bathymetric and seismic surveys have revealed 16 previously undocumented mass movements capable of generating lake tsunami. Fluvial deltas and bedrock slopes proximal to active faults were the most prevalent mass movement source areas, with the largest mass movements identified being a 49 Mm3 delta collapse and a 110 Mm3 subaerial mass movement in Lake Rotoroa. The findings suggest the origin and characteristics of the potentially tsunamigenic mass movements identified were strongly influenced by the high rates of delta progradation, frequent seismic activity, and the preconditioning and displacement by active faults, typical of active tectonic settings. Our results provide new insights into the heterogeneity of lacustrine mass movements and the drivers of lake tsunami hazards in underrepresented high-seismicity regions. The findings illustrate the importance of developing regionally specific insights into lake tsunami susceptibility and may inform the direction of more detailed lake tsunami hazard assessment in New Zealand.

Accelerating Seafloor Uplift of Submarine Caldera Near Sofugan Volcano, Japan, Resolved by Distant Tsunami Recordings

AbstractOn 8 October 2023 UTC, significant tsunamis were observed around Japan without any major tsunamigenic earthquake, associated with a series of 14 successive minor earthquakes (mb = 4.5–5.4) near Sofugan in the Izu‐Bonin Islands. To examine the cause of this tsunami, we estimated the horizontal locations of the tsunami source and temporal history of the seafloor displacement, using the tsunami data recorded by the ocean‐bottom pressure gauges >∼600 km away. Our results showed the main tsunami source was an uplift located at a caldera‐like bathymetric feature near Sofugan, suggesting the involvement of caldera activity in the tsunami generation. The total seafloor uplift was estimated as ∼4 m, and the uplift amount of each event gradually increased over time, reflecting an accelerating occurrence of volcanic unrest of the submarine caldera within only a few hours.

Adjoint Synthesis for Trans‐Oceanic Tsunami Waveforms and Simultaneous Inversion of Fault Geometry and Slip Distribution

AbstractTsunamis propagate over long distances and can cause widespread damage even after crossing ocean basins. Prediction of tsunamis in distant areas based on observations near their sources is critical to mitigating damage. In recent years, the accuracy of numerical models of trans‐oceanic tsunami propagation has improved significantly due to the incorporation of effects such as the solid earth response to tsunami loading and wave dispersion. However, these models are computationally expensive and have not been fully utilized for real‐time prediction. Here, we derive the adjoint operator for the linear set of equations describing deep‐ocean tsunami propagation and show how a pre‐computed database of adjoint states can achieve rapid synthesis of tsunami waveforms at target sites from nonpoint arbitrary tsunami sources. The adjoint synthesis method allows for an exhaustive parameter search for tsunami source estimation. A method for simultaneous inversion of fault geometry and slip distribution using adjoint synthesis with Sequential Monte Carlo method was proposed and applied to the 2012 Haida Gwaii earthquake tsunami. The influence of model accuracy and the amount of observed data on the estimation of tsunami sources and waveforms was examined. It was found that with a highly accurate propagation model, using only a limited amount of observed data produced source and waveform estimates very similar to the final models obtained with much larger data sets. The final inferred fault model involved megathrust slip distributed between the Haida Gwaii trench and the Queen Charlotte fault. The proposed method can also quantify the uncertainty of the waveform forecasts.

Characterization of Underwater Landslides in Krui Waters, Lampung-Indonesia using Shallow Seismic and Sonar Data

Abstract Krui Waters, Lampung, Indonesia, is an area that has the potential for a tsunami disaster. Local tsunamis can be caused by underwater landslides owing to ground movement and gravitational forces. Imaging underwater conditions using sonar and shallow seismic systems is an interesting research topic for geological disaster researchers. Underwater landslides are very important for disaster mitigation, especially for tsunami prediction. This research aims to identify the characteristics of underwater landslides around Krui Waters, Lampung, Indonesia, using imaging analysis methods from sonar data and a sub-bottom profiler (SBP). The underwater landslide phenomenon in this area is still not known in detail, and therefore requires further research. All data were obtained from the results of hydrographic, geological, and geophysical surveys of RV Baruna Jaya IV in 2020. The sonar data shows surface characteristics such as the presence of Furrows (Gravel Waves), Cobble (Boulder), as well as Canyons and landslides or mass movements rocks. SBP data show the characteristics of the seabed in the form of a canyon with a slope greater than 160. Finally, the morphological characteristics and features obtained could possibly be a potential source of local tsunamis owing to the high slope.

New source model for the 1771 Meiwa tsunami along the southern Ryukyu Trench inferred from high-resolution tsunami calculation

The 1771 Meiwa tsunami which struck the southern Ryukyu Islands (Sakishima Islands) had greater than 22 m run-up height, leaving about 12,000 casualties in its wake. At many places, the tsunami inundation or lack of inundation is well recorded in historical documents. Several tsunami source models have been proposed for this event using historical records as constraints of tsunami calculations. Nevertheless, the source model remains under discussion. This study re-evaluated the tsunami wave source model of the 1771 Meiwa tsunami using high-resolution (10 m mesh) bathymetric and topographical data for tsunami calculation, the latest historical record dataset, and seismological knowledge. Results demonstrated that a tsunami earthquake along the southern Ryukyu Trench was the likely cause of the 1771 event. However, it is noteworthy that assumption of a large slip with 30 m is necessary for a shallow and narrow region (fault depth = 5 km, fault width = 30 km, Mw = 8.49) of the plate boundary in the Ryukyu Trench, which is far larger than previously thought. This requirement of very large initial water level change at the source might involve not only the fault rupture along the plate boundary but also deformation by splay faults, inelastic deformation of unconsolidated sediments near the trench axis, and/or giant submarine landslides. Results also show that the effects of fault parameters on the run-up were quite different depending on the offshore coral reef width. This phenomenon strongly constrained the fault width to 30 km. Our tsunami ray tracing analysis further revealed the effects of bathymetry on tsunami propagation. It is noteworthy that meter-long huge tsunami boulders tend to be distributed along the specific coasts at which the tsunami was concentrated by bathymetric effects. This finding suggests that past tsunamis, including the 1771 event, might have affected the specific coral reefs on Sakishima Islands repeatedly, which is crucially important for understanding the heterogeneous distribution of tsunami boulders. This feature might also be useful to elucidate the effects of large tsunamis on the corals and reefs because a direct comparison of coral reefs that are damaged and not damaged by tsunami waves is testable in narrow areas in the case of the Sakishima Islands.

Exploring tsunami generation and propagation: A case study of the 2018 Palu earthquake and tsunami

The tsunami disaster in Palu, Indonesia, on September 28, 2018, caused many casualties and damage along Palu Bay, Indonesia. Prior to the tsunami, an earthquake was recorded 25 km northeast of Donggala. The analysis suggests that the tsunami was triggered by a landslide beneath the waters of Palu Bay. The investigation then focused on the earthquake's impact on the tsunami. This study conducts simulations to discern the dominant causes of tsunamis, comparing the effects of landslides with earthquakes. Three distinct tsunami sources were identified: earthquake-only (T-E), earthquake and submarine landslide (T-EL), and submarine landslide-only (T-L). Interpretation of tsunami source parameters for underwater landslides is carried out accurately. A nesting grid numerical method was employed to increase resolution and accuracy in the simulations. This study accurately interprets tsunami source parameters using data from the Bathymetry National Data-Geospatial Information Agency (185 m resolution) and the field survey data from Baruna Jaya IV-BPPT Research Vessel Indonesia (25 m resolution), thereby contributing to the creation of a tsunami inundation model map. This map serves to inform preparedness efforts and guide recommendations for infrastructure development in the Palu Bay area. The tsunami inundation model map is verified with field data and estimated using tide gauge monitoring data. The characteristics of the tsunami waves on September 28, 2018, reflect a T-EL-type tsunami source, while the T-L type source produces tsunami waves with longer periods compared to earthquake-generated tsunamis (T-EL). The T-E type, located on land, had minimal influence in causing the tsunami, despite the destructive potential of the shallow-depth M7.5 earthquake.

Numerical Reconstruction of Landslide Paleotsunami Using Geological Records in Alpine Lake Aiguebelette

AbstractMass movements and delta collapses are significant sources of tsunamis in lacustrine environments, impacting human societies enormously. Paleotsunamis studies play an essential role in understanding historical events and their consequences, along with their return periods. This study investigates a paleotsunami induced by a subaqueous mass movement during the Younger Dryas to Early Holocene transition, ca. 11,700 years ago in Lake Aiguebelette (NW Alps, France). Utilizing high‐resolution seismic and bathymetric surveys associated with sedimentological, geochemical, and magnetic analyses, we uncovered a paleotsunami triggered by a seismically induced mass transport deposit. Numerical simulations of mass movement have been conducted using a visco‐plastic Herschel‐Bulkley rheological model and corresponding tsunami wave modeled with dispersive and nondispersive models. Our findings reveal for the first time that dispersive effects may be negligible for subaqueous landslides in a relatively small lake. This research reconstructs a previously unreported paleotsunami event and enhances our understanding of tsunami dynamics in lacustrine environments.

Probabilistic earthquake-tsunami financial risk evaluation for the District of Tofino, British Columbia, Canada

ABSTRACT Southwestern British Columbia in Canada has a high likelihood of facing significant earthquake threats in the future. It is exposed to significant seismic and tsunami hazards, originating from the Cascadia subduction zone and shallow crustal and deep inslab earthquakes. This study presents a new probabilistic earthquake-tsunami loss model for the Cascadia subduction zone by focusing on the District of Tofino, British Columbia. The earthquake occurrence and rupture models for the Cascadia subduction zone are developed by incorporating the time-dependency of earthquake occurrence and by adopting a stochastic source modelling approach, which allows for consideration of heterogeneous earthquake slip distributions. The results produce single-hazard and multi-hazard exceedance probability loss curves for earthquakes and tsunamis from the Cascadia subduction zone. In addition, earthquake risks due to other seismic sources are integrated with the multi-hazard loss curves due to the Cascadia events. In this way, a complete financial exposure from all major seismic and tsunami sources is evaluated. These loss curves can be used for determining the insurance rates for multi-hazard and multi-source risk coverage. The results are beneficial for providing more risk financing options via insurance against the future Cascadia and other seismic events.

Submarine landslides and tsunami genesis in Sagami Bay, Japan, caused by the 1923 Great Kanto earthquake

The 1923 Great Kanto earthquake occurred on September 1, in Japan, and caused severe damage mainly in the Kanto region. Tsunamis were observed over wide regions from the east coast of the Izu Peninsula to the west coast of the Boso Peninsula, and particularly, the damage in Atami was devastating. Many earthquake fault models including those of Kanamori (1971) and Ando (1971) were proposed based on the records of land deformation. However, such fault models cannot sufficiently explain the tsunami elevation and its initial sea-level motion on the coasts. Hence, the detailed mechanisms remain elusive. This study examines the possibility that a leading mechanism of the tsunami in the 1923 Great Kanto earthquake was a large-scale submarine landslide that occurred at Sagami Bay and at the mouth of Tokyo Bay based on the records of depth data measured by the Imperial Japanese Navy (1924) before and after the earthquake. We first show that the tsunami calculated by each fault model was inconsistent with the waveform at Yokosuka, the coastal tsunami elevations, and initial sea-level motion. Then, based on statistical analysis of the depth changes at the 1923 Great Kanto earthquake, we found that the seafloor bathymetric changes represented large-scale submarine landslides that may correspond to long-runout submarine liquefied sediment flows. The seafloor gradient over a 40 km flow-out distance was equal to or less than 0.4∘\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$^\\circ$$\\end{document}. Through the identification of the submarine landslide source by tsunami backpropagation analysis and utilizing an analytical solution of a high-density gravity flow and a sensitivity analysis, we conducted a range of numerical simulations of the 1923 Great Kanto earthquake tsunamis using a fault model and a submarine landslide tsunami source model due to a high-density liquefied gravity flow. The results quantitatively accounted for the discrepancy between the observed tsunami records with maximum tsunami elevations over 12 m and the fault-model–based simulations with maximum tsunami elevations of 2 to 5 m and explained consistently the maximum tsunami elevation distributions as well as the time-series tsunami waveforms. These results may thus facilitate and deepen our understanding of the earthquake-induced submarine landslide tsunami risk as cascading multi-geohazards.