The OOR (out-of-roundness) wheel is one of the main excitation sources causing vehicle vibration. However, the OOR wheel occurs randomly, indicating that the vibration behavior of a vehicle cannot be comprehensively evaluated using a deterministic approach. Thus, a probability analysis framework is proposed to obtain vehicle vibration characteristics while considering the randomness of the OOR wheel. The probability model of the random OOR wheel is derived by reducing the high-dimensional variables into a few independent variables of the radius, amplitude, and phase. Then, the vertical vehicle-track coupled system with OOR wheels is modelled. A DPIM (direct probability integral method) is further developed to analyze the evolution of excitation to response probabilities. Finally, the statistics of the random vibration of the vehicle are calculated. The proposed framework is verified using a numerical case. Results show that the PDF (probability density function) shape of the vehicle random vibration, induced by the Gaussian-distributed OOR wheel, deviates from the Gaussian distribution due to the nonlinear wheel/rail contact force. Instead, it exhibits a right-skewed shape, significantly impacting the dynamic performance. As the mean or coefficient of variation of the OOR wheel amplitude increases linearly, the reliability of the vehicle Sperling index experiences a quadratic or double-sloping decrease. Consequently, a maintenance threshold for OOR wheel amplitudes is given based on reliability considerations. Compared to Monte Carlo simulation, the proposed framework offers a computational efficiency improvement of at least one order of magnitude.