AbstractIn this study, relevant variables were determined to predict the probability of sooty mould biofilm (SMB) occurrence on willow leaves in a multivariate model. Despite a large temporal gap between the main sap-feeding insect (SFI) season in spring (May to June) and the main season of SMBs in late summer and fall (August to September), trees infested with SFIs on four or more observation dates had significantly more SMBs (3.7-fold) toward the end of the growing season. In addition, a horizontal leaf position and recessed leaf veins, traits that may increase the wettability of the leaves, positively influenced SMB occurrence (27.8-fold). Among the weather parameters, those that lead to higher moisture on leaf surfaces, namely high morning and evening relative humidity, higher precipitation sums, and lower vapour pressure deficit values, also had the strongest positive effect. In addition to these parameters, higher wind speeds also had a strong positive effect on SMB occurrence.
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