APOE4 is the greatest genetic risk factor for Alzheimer's disease (AD), increasing risk up to 15-fold compared to the more common APOE3. Autosomal dominant mutations that increase the peptide amyloid-β (Aβ42) cause the rare familial form of AD. Aβ42 aggregate to form amyloid plaques and soluble oligomeric Aβ (oAβ), the latter considered a proximal neurotoxin. Among APOE4 carriers, females have an increased AD risk, rate of cognitive loss and accumulation of Aβ42 compared to males. Thus, our hypothesis is that oAβ is a mechanistic biomarker that can track AD progression based on APOE genotype and sex. Many current AD biomarkers for are not predictive, reliably diagnostic or easily measured, although CSF Aβ42 levels are considered a “gold standard.” To test the value of oAβ as a biomarker, we developed a unique monoclonal antibody, MOAB-2, that enabled development of an ELISA that detects 1pg/ml oAβ. ELISAs were run to determine oAβ levels in plasma from healthy controls and AD patients with APOE3 or APOE4 genotypes. In both human brain and CSF, oAβ and Aβ42 levels are higher in AD vs. control, but in the AD cohort, only oAβ is higher with APOE4 vs. APOE3, supporting our hypothesis that APOE-modulated changes in oAβ levels underlie the APOE4-induced risk for AD. Therefore, we measured oAβ in human plasma, which demonstrated that oAβ levels are higher in AD vs. control subjects. Stratification of the AD cohort by sex and APOE reveal significantly greater oAβ levels in APOE4 vs. APOE3 and females vs. males. Importantly, when the data is further stratified by sex within genotype, oAβ levels are higher in female APOE4 carriers vs. male APOE4 carriers. These results are consistent with the concept of personal medicine, as significance increases with stratification. This specifically supports the hypothesis that with subject stratification, plasma oAβ levels may become a new “gold standard.” Future longitudinal studies will determine thresholds and establish the predictive value of oAβ as a mechanistic biomarker. Such a mechanistic biomarker is critical for effective prediction of AD and will enable clinical studies to determine efficacy of predictive therapeutics.