Effects Of Solar Variability Research Articles

A statistically significant signature of multi-decadal solar activity changes in atmospheric temperatures at three European stations

We study the effect of solar variability on temperatures recorded in three European stations with the longest gapless series available (Prague, Bologna and Uccle). Following a pattern recognition approach, we partition daily temperature “indices” (minimum, maximum and range) in two separate classes with respect to the level of solar activity (high H vs low L 11 year cycles). Using the two-sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov statistics, multiple shuffles of data, and other partitions, we demonstrate that the separation between the probability distribution functions of H and L temperatures is statistically significant and robust. We find that average annual variations for the H and L classes display common and site-specific patterns. For practically all series considered, differences between graphs of annual change for the two classes H and L are large (∼1 °C). Solar activity accounts, at least in part, for the multi-decadal variations in temperature observed at these European sites in the past two centuries.

Energy collection efficiency of holographic planar solar concentrators

We analyze the energy collection properties of holographic planar concentrator systems. The effects of solar variation on daily and annual energy collection are evaluated. Hologram diffraction efficiency, polarization, crosstalk in cascaded elements, and constraints imposed by the radiance theorem, as well as solar illumination characteristics, are considered. A planar holographic solar concentrator configuration is designed and modeled to maximize energy collection efficiency during the course of a year without the need for tracking. Results indicated that nearly 50% of the available energy illuminating hologram areas can be collected by photovoltaic cells without the need of tracking.

Solar activity and human health at middle and low geomagnetic latitudes in Central America

The study of the possible effect of solar variability on living organisms is one of the most controversial issues of present day science. It has been firstly and mainly carried on high latitudes, while at middle and low latitudes this study is rare. In the present review we focused on the work developed at middle and low geomagnetic latitudes of America. At these geomagnetic latitudes the groups consistently dedicated to this issue are mainly two, one in Cuba and the other in Mexico. The Cuban and Mexican studies show that at such latitudes there are biological consequences to the solar/geomagnetic activity, coinciding in four points: (1) the male population behave differently from the female population, (2) the most vulnerable age group to geomagnetic perturbations is that of ⩾65 years old, (3) there is a tendency for myocardial infarctions (death or occurrence) to increase one day after a geomagnetic Ap index large value or during the day of the associated Forbush decrease, and (4) the myocardial infarctions (death or occurrence) increase as the geomagnetic perturbation increases. Additionally, the Cuban group found seasonal periodicities from their data, and also that increases of female myocardial infarctions occurred before and after the day of the geomagnetic disturbance. The Mexican group found that the male sex is more vulnerable to geomagnetic perturbations and that the myocardial infarction deaths present the conspicuous cycle of ∼7 days.

Correction to “Effect of solar variability on atmospheric moisture storage”

Correction to “Effect of solar variability on atmospheric moisture storage”

Variations on Sun’s role in climate change

It is good that Physics Today reported on the work of Nicola Scafetta and Bruce West. They have done by far the best work in relating solar variability to terrestrial climate, bringing sophistication and rigor to a field dominated mostly by unsupportable positions that the Sun’s effect is negligible on the one hand, or is responsible for nearly all observed global warming on the other. That solar variability has appreciable coupling to Earth’s climate becomes obvious when an observer notes the imprint of the Schwabe sunspot cycle on the climate temperature record. 1 1. N. Scafetta, B. J. West, Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L18713 (2005), fig. 2. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023849 The identical scaleless noise spectra for solar and terrestrial climate fluctuations provide additional support for coupling and for regarding the Earth–Sun network as a complex system. Unfortunately, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change clings to its position that solar variability effects are negligible, to the detriment of its credibility. Given known solar variability, the IPCC position can be rationalized only if the so-called hockey-stick global temperature reconstruction, 2 2. M. E. Mann, P. D. Jones, Geophys. Res. Lett. 30, 1820 (2003). https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL017814 which shows little natural variation, is valid. However, that reconstruction is at odds with natural history and has been shown to be statistically flawed; 3 3. E. J. Wegman, D. W. Scott, Y. H. Said, Ad Hoc Committee Report on the “Hockey Stick” Global Climate Reconstruction, Committee on Energy and Commerce, US House of Representatives, Washington, DC (2006), available at http://www.climateaudit.org/pdf/others/07142006_Wegman_Report.pdf. more recent reconstructions 4,5 4. A. Moberg et al. , Nature 433, 613 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03265 5. C. Loehle, Energy Environ. 18, 1049 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1260/095830507782616797 show much more natural variation. The fact that general circulation models do not give appreciable Sun–Earth coupling merely shows that they are leaving out essential physics—by no means their only serious shortcoming. Unfortunately, the phenomenological approach of Scafetta and West only informs us of the magnitude of the climatic impact of solar variability. It does not shed light on the actual physical mechanisms, so it points to the need for more research on physical coupling mechanisms between those interacting complex systems. It is also unfortunate that Physics Today chose to feature this work as an Opinion, rather than giving it the fullfledged article status it deserves. The readership should be informed in more detail about this important work.REFERENCESSection:ChooseTop of pageREFERENCES <<1. N. Scafetta, B. J. West, Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L18713 (2005), fig. 2. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023849 , Google ScholarCrossref, ISI2. M. E. Mann, P. D. Jones, Geophys. Res. Lett. 30, 1820 (2003). https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL017814 , Google ScholarCrossref, ISI3. E. J. Wegman, D. W. Scott, Y. H. Said, Ad Hoc Committee Report on the “Hockey Stick” Global Climate Reconstruction, Committee on Energy and Commerce, US House of Representatives, Washington, DC (2006), available at http://www.climateaudit.org/pdf/others/07142006_Wegman_Report.pdf. Google Scholar4. A. Moberg et al. , Nature 433, 613 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03265 , Google ScholarCrossref, ISI5. C. Loehle, Energy Environ. 18, 1049 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1260/095830507782616797 , Google ScholarCrossref© 2008 American Institute of Physics.

Effects of solar variability on thermosphere density from CHAMP accelerometer data

Thermosphere densities near 410 km altitude inferred from accelerometer measurements on the Challenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) satellite are analyzed for solar irradiance variability effects during the period 2002–2004. Correlations between the densities and the solar irradiances for different spectral lines and wavelength ranges reveal significantly different characteristics. The density correlates remarkably well with all the selected solar irradiances except the lower chromospheric O I (130.4 nm) emission. Among the chosen solar proxies, the Mg II core‐to‐wing ratio index, EUV (30–120 nm) and F10.7 show the highest correlations with the density for short‐term (&lt;∼27 d) variations. For both long‐term (&gt;∼27 d) and short‐term variations, linear correlation coefficients exhibit a decreasing trend from low latitudes toward high latitudes. The density variability can be effectively modeled (capturing 71% of the variance) using multiple solar irradiance indices, including F10.7, SEUV (the EUV 30–120 nm index), and SFUV (the FUV 120–193 nm index), in which a lag time of 1 d was used for both F10.7 and SEUV, and 5 d for SFUV. In our regression formulation, SEUV has the largest contribution to the density variation (40%), with the F10.7 having the next largest contribution (32%) and SFUV accounting for the rest (28%). Furthermore, a pronounced period of about 27.2 d (mean period of the Sun's rotation) is present in both density and solar irradiance data of 2003 and 2004, and a pronounced period of about 54.4 d (doubled period of the solar rotation) is also revealed in 2004. However, soft X‐ray and FUV irradiances did not present a pronounced 54.4‐d period in 2004, in spite of their high correlation with the densities. The Ap index also shows 54‐d periodicities in 2004, and magnetic activity, together with solar irradiance, affects the 54‐d variation in density significantly. In addition, NRLMSISE00, DTM‐2000, and JB2006 model predictions are compared with density measurements from CHAMP to assess their accuracy, and the results show that these models underestimate the response of the thermosphere to variations induced by solar rotation.

Accurate Monitoring of Terrestrial Aerosols and Total Solar Irradiance: Introducing the Glory Mission

The NASA Glory mission is intended to facilitate and improve upon long-term monitoring of two key forcings influencing global climate. One of the mission's principal objectives is to determine the global distribution of detailed aerosol and cloud properties with unprecedented accuracy, thereby facilitating the quantification of the aerosol direct and indirect radiative forcings. The other is to continue the 28-yr record of satellite-based measurements of total solar irradiance from which the effect of solar variability on the Earth's climate is quantified. These objectives will be met by flying two state-of-the-art science instruments on an Earth-orbiting platform. Based on a proven technique demonstrated with an aircraft-based prototype, the Aerosol Polarimetry Sensor (APS) will collect accurate multiangle photopolarimetric measurements of the Earth along the satellite ground track within a wide spectral range extending from the visible to the shortwave infrared. The Total Irradiance Monitor (TIM) is an improved version of an instrument currently flying on the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) and will provide accurate and precise measurements of spectrally integrated sunlight illuminating the Earth. Because Glory is expected to fly as part of the A-Train constellation of Earth-orbiting spacecraft, the APS data will also be used to improve retrievals of aerosol climate forcing parameters and global aerosol assessments with other A-Train instruments. In this paper, we detail the scientific rationale and objectives of the Glory mission, explain how these scientific objectives dictate the specific measurement strategy, describe how the measurement strategy will be implemented by the APS and TIM, and briefly outline the overall structure of the mission. It is expected that the Glory results will be used extensively by members of the climate, solar, atmospheric, oceanic, and environmental research communities as well as in education and outreach activities.

Evidence for a physical linkage between galactic cosmic rays and regional climate time series

The effects of solar variability on regional climate time series were examined using a sequence of physical connections between total solar irradiance (TSI) modulated by galactic cosmic rays (GCRs), and ocean and atmospheric patterns that affect precipitation and streamflow. The solar energy reaching the Earth’s surface and its oceans is thought to be controlled through an interaction between TSI and GCRs, which are theorized to ionize the atmosphere and increase cloud formation and its resultant albedo. High (low) GCR flux may promote cloudiness (clear skies) and higher (lower) albedo at the same time that TSI is lowest (highest) in the solar cycle which in turn creates cooler (warmer) ocean temperature anomalies. These anomalies have been shown to affect atmospheric flow patterns and ultimately affect precipitation over the Midwestern United States. This investigation identified a relation among TSI and geomagnetic index aa (GI-AA), and streamflow in the Mississippi River Basin for the period 1878–2004. The GI-AA was used as a proxy for GCRs. The lag time between the solar signal and streamflow in the Mississippi River at St. Louis, Missouri is approximately 34 years. The current drought (1999–2007) in the Mississippi River Basin appears to be caused by a period of lower solar activity that occurred between 1963 and 1977. There appears to be a solar “fingerprint” that can be detected in climatic time series in other regions of the world, with each series having a unique lag time between the solar signal and the hydroclimatic response. A progression of increasing lag times can be spatially linked to the ocean conveyor belt, which may transport the solar signal over a time span of several decades. The lag times for any one region vary slightly and may be linked to the fluctuations in the velocity of the ocean conveyor belt.

Has solar variability caused climate change that affected human culture?

If solar variability affects human culture it most likely does so by changing the climate in which the culture operates. Variations in the solar radiative input to the Earth’s atmosphere have often been suggested as a cause of such climate change on time scales from decades to tens of millennia. In the last 20 years there has been enormous progress in our knowledge of the many fields of research that impinge on this problem; the history of the solar output, the effect of solar variability on the Earth’s mean climate and its regional patterns, the history of the Earth’s climate and the history of mankind and human culture. This new knowledge encourages revisiting the question asked in the title of this talk. Several important historical events have been reliably related to climate change including the Little Ice Age in northern Europe and the collapse of the Classical Mayan civilization in the 9th century AD. In the first section of this paper we discus these historical events and review the evidence that they were caused by changes in the solar output. Perhaps the most important event in the history of mankind was the development of agricultural societies. This began to occur almost 12,000 years ago when the climate changed from the Pleistocene to the modern climate of the Holocene. In the second section of the paper we will discuss the suggestion ( Feynman and Ruzmaikin, 2007) that climate variability was the reason agriculture developed when it did and not before.

Effect of solar variability on the Earth’s climate patterns

We discuss effects of solar variability on the Earth’s large-scale climate patterns. These patterns are naturally excited as deviations (anomalies) from the mean state of the Earth’s atmosphere-ocean system. We consider in detail an example of such a pattern, the North Annular Mode (NAM), a climate anomaly with two states corresponding to higher pressure at high latitudes with a band of lower pressure at lower latitudes and the other way round. We discuss a mechanism by which solar variability can influence this pattern and formulate an updated general conjecture of how external influences on Earth’s dynamics can affect climate patterns.

Distribution characteristics of topside ionospheric density irregularities: Equatorial versus midlatitude regions

The global distribution of the occurrence rate for density irregularities at 600 km topside ionosphere between ±35° geographic latitudes has been studied with the ROCSAT data during moderate to high solar activity years of 1999 to 2004. The result indicates that the global occurrence distribution of the intermediate‐scale (0.1 to 50 km) density irregularities can be grouped into two different populations, one in the equatorial region and the other in the middle‐to‐subauroral latitude region. The global seasonal/longitudinal (s/l) distribution of equatorial irregularities in the current report reproduces the result of McClure et al. (1998) obtained with the AE‐E observations of the mesoscale (50 to 1000 km) plasma bubble structures during high solar activity years of 1978 to 1980, two solar cycles ago. This implies that the density irregularities of different scales from multistage cascading process of the large‐scale (&gt;1000 km) gravitational Rayleigh‐Taylor instability have manifested in same global s/l distribution pattern. Furthermore, global variation in seeding mechanism and growth condition of the instability process that results in major features in global irregularity pattern seems to persist for past 25 years. In addition, the current result further indicates that an upper latitudinal limit of the equatorial irregularity distribution is located at about ±30°. A different kind of midlatitude irregularity distribution starts to fill in from this dip latitude. In other words, the equatorial density irregularity inside a depleted flux tube can only rise, on statistical average, to an apex height of ∼2000 km. Different magnetic and solar variability effects as well as the local time dependence are noted for the occurrences of density irregularities in the equatorial region versus that at midlatitudes. The occurrence frequency of equatorial density irregularities increases with solar flux intensity; whereas the midlatitude density irregularity is more likely to occur during low solar activity period. The equatorial density irregularities are more likely to occur during periods of low magnetic activity than during magnetic disturbed times. On the other hand, the occurrence of midlatitude density irregularities indicates little dependence on geomagnetic activity. The local time distribution of equatorial irregularity peaks before midnight while the midlatitude irregularity indicates a plateau of high occurrence rate after midnight. Such opposite characteristics in the occurrence pattern between these two spatially separated distributions suggest that different instability mechanisms are operated in two different latitude regions for the occurrence of intermediate‐scale density irregularities.

A new pathway for communicating the 11-year solar cycle signal to the QBO

[1] The response of the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) to zonal-mean ozone perturbations consistent with the 11-year solar cycle is examined using a 2 dimensional model of the tropical stratosphere. Unique to this model are wave-ozone feedbacks, which provide a new, nonlinear pathway for communicating solar variability effects to the QBO. Model simulations show that for zonal-mean ozone perturbations representative of solar maximum (minimum), the diabatic heating due to the wave-ozone feedbacks is primarily responsible for driving a slightly stronger (weaker) QBO circulation and producing a slightly shorter (longer) QBO period. These results, which are explained via an analytical analysis of the divergence of Eliassen-palm flux, are in general agreement with observations of quasi-decadal variability of the QBO.

Numerical simulation of global temperature change during the 20th century with the IAP/LASG GOALS model

The IAP/LASG GOALS coupled model is used to simulate the climate change during the 20th century using historical greenhouse gases concentrations, the mass mixing ratio of sulfate aerosols simulated by a CTM model, and reconstruction of solar variability spanning the period 1900 to 1997. Four simulations, including a control simulation and three forcing simulations, are conducted. Comparison with the observational record for the period indicates that the three forcing experiments simulate reasonable temporal and spatial distributions of the temperature change. The global warming during the 20th century is caused mainly by increasing greenhouse gas concentration especially since the late 1980s; sulfate aerosols offset a portion of the global warming and the reduction of global temperature is up to about 0.11°C over the century; additionally, the effect of solar variability is not negligible in the simulation of climate change over the 20th century.

Comparison of solar variability effects with the surface radiative forcing of CO 2

In this paper we provide a comparison of the change in the solar flux with the surface forcing from greenhouse gases, particularly that of carbon dioxide which is increasing in the atmosphere due to fossil fuel combustion processes. This comparison shows that the maximum changes in the clear sky solar flux since the time of the approximate onset of the industrial period is comparable to the corresponding carbon dioxide surface forcing. In comparison with the forcing from all of the other major greenhouse gases combined, the solar contribution may be about 20–60% as strong. This comparison indicates that over the past few hundred years, the surface temperature change impact from solar variability can rival that from the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gases.

Simulations of the effects of interannual and decadal variability on the clear-sky outgoing long-wave radiation spectrum

Using atmospheric profiles derived from the Hadley Centre atmosphere climate model version 3 (HadAM3) as input to a radiative transfer code, the sensitivity of the resolved spectrum of clear-sky outgoing long-wave radiation to both interannual and longer-term atmospheric variability has been analysed. A comparison of the simulated spectra with available observations from two satellite-based instruments indicates a reasonable match, although consistent differences are present. These may be explained by a combination of uncertainties in the atmospheric state, and in the relative calibration of the two instruments. Focusing on the simulations: if HadAM3 is forced by the observed sea surface temperature (SST) record alone, and long-term alterations in the well-mixed greenhouse gases are imposed in the radiance simulations, the changes seen within the major absorption bands are robust. Under a second scenario, where the effects of solar variability, volcanic aerosol, ozone changes and increases in the well-mixed greenhouse gases are also included in the forcing of HadAM3, the long-term profile changes tend to show an enhanced upper-tropospheric warming and low/mid-stratospheric cooling, with increased near-surface humidities compared to the SST-only case. However, the tropospheric response of the system, manifested in the spectral change pattern over the atmospheric window and water vapour bands, falls within the range of year-to-year variability. Copyright © Royal Meteorological Society, 2003. R. P. Allan's contribution is Crown copyright.

Simulations of the effects of interannual and decadal variability on the clear‐sky outgoing long‐wave radiation spectrum

AbstractUsing atmospheric profiles derived from the Hadley Centre atmosphere climate model version 3 (HadAM3) as input to a radiative transfer code, the sensitivity of the resolved spectrum of clear‐sky outgoing long‐wave radiation to both interannual and longer‐term atmospheric variability has been analysed. A comparison of the simulated spectra with available observations from two satellite‐based instruments indicates a reasonable match, although consistent differences are present. These may be explained by a combination of uncertainties in the atmospheric state, and in the relative calibration of the two instruments. Focusing on the simulations: if HadAM3 is forced by the observed sea surface temperature (SST) record alone, and long‐term alterations in the well‐mixed greenhouse gases are imposed in the radiance simulations, the changes seen within the major absorption bands are robust. Under a second scenario, where the effects of solar variability, volcanic aerosol, ozone changes and increases in the well‐mixed greenhouse gases are also included in the forcing of HadAM3, the long‐term profile changes tend to show an enhanced upper‐tropospheric warming and low/mid‐stratospheric cooling, with increased near‐surface humidities compared to the SST‐only case. However, the tropospheric response of the system, manifested in the spectral change pattern over the atmospheric window and water vapour bands, falls within the range of year‐to‐year variability. Copyright © Royal Meteorological Society, 2003. R. P. Allan's contribution is Crown copyright.

The effects of solar variability on the Earth's climate

The absolute value of total solar irradiance is not known to better than ca.0.3% but measurements from satellite instruments over the past two solar cycles have shown that it varies by ca.0.1% on t...

NASA's Living with a Star Program: Science with relevance

NASA has initiated the Living with a Star (LWS) Program to develop the scientific understanding to address the aspects of the connected Sun-Earth system that affect life and society. A goal of the program is to bridge the gap between science, engineering, and user application communities by addressing scientific questions that pertain to human radiation exposure, climate change, and technological systems. This will enable future science, operational, and commercial objectives in space and atmospheric environments by improving engineering approaches to the accommodation and/or mitigation of the effects of solar variability on these systems. The formulation of the LWS Program architecture and implementation plan is currently in progress with inputs from the science and engineering communities. There are plans for two groups of science spacecraft: (a) solar dynamics elements that observe the Sun and track disturbances originating there and (b) geospace elements located between the Sun and the Earth and around the Earth to measure downstream effects the geospace response to changes in solar activity. Plans also include a data analysis component to improve scientific understanding, and a series of Space Environment Testbeds to provide infusion of the improved understanding to the design and operations of future missions. The LWS Program is developing partnerships with other US and International agencies and industry to augment existing capabilities. The full paper will give an overview of the program architecture and the implementation and partnering plan for LWS.

Solar variability effects studied by tree-ring data wavelet analysis

The global change approach to study the Sun-Earth system gives a growing amount of evidences that climate dynamics is affected by a large number of factors. The solar variability is very likely to be among them. Natural records, such as tree ring data, can be investigated to study the past global and regional climate, which was influenced by the solar radiative output variations, associated to solar activity. Wavelet transform analysis was applied to sunspot number and tree ring width time series from 1837 to 1996 at Concórdia, Brazil. The amplitude and cross-amplitude spectral representation in the time-frequency domain allowed us to detect the occurrence of predominant periodicities and the relationship between the sunspot number and the tree ring time series. The Morlet complex wavelet analysis was used to study the most important variability factors on time scales ranging from from 2 to 100 years, and their stability in time, which is shown in both time series studied. We also applied the cross-wavelet spectral analysis to evaluate time delay among different tree ring time series, and between tree ring and sunspot number time series.

Induced effects of solar variability on asthmatic crises in adults

Se presenta un análisis de series de tiempo de números de Wolf, frecuencia diaria de explosiones de rayos X de intensidad M y X, valores diarios del índice geomagnético Ap, y número de pacientes tratados con crisis de asma en el Hospital Calixto García de la Habana entre 1987-1990. Se detectan variaciones en la curva de incidencia asmática después del primer evento protónico de bajo nivel en el ciclo 22. La ocurrencia simultánea de periodos de 76 días en las curvas de asma y de rayos X sugiere un efecto complejo y no lineal de la actividad solar.