Solar-terrestrial Connections Research Articles

Prototype of Intellectual System for Research of Space Weather Parameters

An analysis of the state of space weather research has been conducted, based on which the main problem has been identified and its relevance has been justified. Monitoring, researching, and forecasting space weather conditions receive significant attention in developed countries around the world. Despite significant progress in addressing this issue, the structure of solar-terrestrial connections is not fully understood, and the risks associated with space weather are increasing as the key aspects of our lives become increasingly technologically advanced. Today, in the structure of solar-terrestrial connections the influence of solar activity on the Earth’s lower atmosphere, including atmospheric infrasound and the electric field, remains insufficiently studied. This problem requires an examination of complex interactions that occur when different types of disturbances propagate through the Sun-Earth environment. Based on the developed generalized architecture of an intelligent system for researching space weather parameters, a prototype of this system has been proposed, and its functionality has been determined and developed. The prototype of the intelligent system is a client-server system built on the basis of server software, user software, and application software. The functionality of the intelligent system includes data collection, their preliminary processing, data processing, and visualization of the investigated signals. Data processing for space weather parameters includes spectral analysis of experimental data implemented using windowed Fourier transform and wavelet transform, as well as correlation-regression analysis, which allows for the investigation of the relationship between variables with the aim of identifying unknown causal connections. The intelligent system for researching space weather parameters will help identify new connections in the structure of solar-terrestrial interactions and study the impact of space factors on the Earth’s troposphere. The provided examples illustrate the results of processing experimental data for space weather parameters.

ВИКОРИСТАННЯ БІБЛІЙНОЇ МЕТОДОЛОГІЇ У ВИХОВАННІ ТА ФОРМУВАННІ СВІТОГЛЯДУ СТУДЕНТІВ НА ВЧЕННЯ ПРО НООСФЕРУ

Advice, laws, commandments of the Bible determine the existence of human life. They are the methodological basis of the educational process. The books of the Bible contain information about the creation of light, the atmosphere, land and oceans, the biosphere and man, about the connections and relationships between man, society and nature. It is suggested to study the books of the Bible from scientific research and educational positions. Has no scientific law or dogma that cannot be found directly or indirectly in the scriptures of the Bible. On the basis of many years of experience in teaching physical geography, four successive stages of formation of students’ outlook on the problems of interaction of society, man and nature and the concept of the noosphere in the process of studying geographical disciplines from the 1st to the 5th courses have been established: education, geographic, theoretical and philosophical. According to the results of the analysis of the teachings of V. I. Vernadskyi and modern science about the biosphere and noosphere, about the solar-terrestrial connections of inert and living matter and the origin and evolution of living matter and the biosphere, it was established that the noosphere is essentially the spiritual sphere of the mental activity of every person and humanity as a whole in the space-time continuum. The noosphere is the spiritual part of the biosphere, it is born and exists together with the birth and existence of man and humanity, and after biological death it ceases to exist in the material system of the biosphere and passes to the spiritual level of existence, beyond the dimensions of our material worldview. All natural and social phenomena and processes are controlled by the spiritual sphere, which includes the sphere of the human mind – the noosphere. Earth’s shells and biosphere were created for human life and activities with all the necessary spaceplanetary ecological conditions.

A critical evaluation of decadal solar cycle imprints in the MiKlip historical ensemble simulations

Abstract. Studies concerning solar–terrestrial connections over the last decades claim to have found evidence that the quasi-decadal solar cycle can have an influence on the dynamics in the middle atmosphere in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) during the winter season. It has been argued that feedbacks between the intensity of the UV part of the solar spectrum and low-latitude stratospheric ozone may produce anomalies in meridional temperature gradients which have the potential to alter the zonal-mean flow in middle to high latitudes. Interactions between the zonal wind and planetary waves can lead to a downward propagation of the anomalies, produced in the middle atmosphere, down to the troposphere. More recently, it has been proposed that top-down-initiated decadal solar signals might modulate surface climate and synchronize the North Atlantic Oscillation. A realistic representation of the solar cycle in climate models was suggested to significantly enhance decadal prediction skill. These conclusions have been debated controversial since then due to the lack of realistic decadal prediction model setups and more extensive analysis. In this paper we aim for an objective and improved evaluation of possible solar imprints from the middle atmosphere to the surface and with that from head to toe. Thus, we analyze model output from historical ensemble simulations conducted with the state-of-the-art Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model in high-resolution configuration (MPI-ESM-HR). The target of these simulations was to isolate the most crucial model physics to foster basic research on decadal climate prediction and to develop an operational ensemble decadal prediction system within the “Mittelfristige Klimaprognose” (MiKlip) framework. Based on correlations and multiple linear regression analysis we show that the MPI-ESM-HR simulates a realistic, statistically significant and robust shortwave heating rate and temperature response at the tropical stratopause, in good agreement with existing studies. However, the dynamical response to this initial radiative signal in the NH during the boreal winter season is weak. We find a slight strengthening of the polar vortex in midwinter during solar maximum conditions in the ensemble mean, which is consistent with the so-called “top-down” mechanism. The individual ensemble members, however, show a large spread in the dynamical response with opposite signs in response to the solar cycle, which might be a result of the large overall internal variability compensating for rather small solar imprints. We also analyze the possible surface responses to the 11-year solar cycle and review the proposed synchronization between the solar forcing and the North Atlantic Oscillation. We find that the simulated westerly wind anomalies in the lower troposphere, as well as the anomalies in the mean sea level pressure, are most likely independent from the timing of the solar signal in the middle atmosphere and the alleged top-down influences. The pattern rather reflects the decadal internal variability in the troposphere, mimicking positive and negative phases of the Arctic and North Atlantic oscillations throughout the year sporadically, which is then assigned to the solar predictor time series without any plausible physical connection and sound solar contribution. Finally, by applying lead–lag correlations, we find that the proposed synchronization between the solar cycle and the decadal component of the North Atlantic Oscillation might rather be a statistical artifact, affected for example by the internal decadal variability in the ocean, than a plausible physical connection between the UV solar forcing and quasi-decadal variations in the troposphere.

Ionospheric measurement using a linearly polarized tri-band small satellite beacon

Radio waves propagating the ionosphere are subject to a number of unpredictable and corrupting effects, the most significant of which are phase path reduction, Faraday rotation, and scintillation. A method of measuring these effects is necessary in order to study and understand the solar-terrestrial connections, as well as to anticipate their impact on radio systems. However, limitations in current measurement solutions, most notably the lack of direct ionospheric Faraday rotation measurement capability, restricts the ability to characterize the ionosphere to a sufficient degree for applications such as the detection of coronal mass ejections. The rise in popularity of small satellites presents a new cost-effective opportunity to study and observe the ionosphere in detail, however the challenge of realizing a beacon within the constraints of a small satellite system must be overcome. In this paper, we introduce a measurement technique that builds on past multi-frequency beacons, incorporating the well established differential phase technique, as well as introducing a new differential polarization technique. We achieve this by employing linearly polarized beacon signals, which enables us to separate phase path reduction and Faraday rotation into a phase and polarization error respectively. The introduction of linear polarization overcomes a key limitations in current ionospheric measurement techniques: eliminating errors associated with indirect Faraday rotation measurement. The additional polarization data also enables absolute unambiguous measurement of both parameters with fewer and lower frequencies than conventional solutions, as well as without the need for precise satellite clock, phase biases and positioning data. These characteristics correspond with a reduction in the size, power and complexity of the satellite payload, and as a result, our technique better suited to small satellite applications. To validate the capability of measuring the ionosphere within the constraints of a small satellite package, we establish the influence of system noise, weak scattering, clock errors and antenna characteristics on the measurement technique. We then use this to inform a starting point for a CubeSat beacon and receiver design solution which achieves unambiguous and high-resolution measurement of ionospheric parameters with practicable system requirements and constraints. This starting point demonstrates that a resolution of 12mTECU and 0.03rad/m2 for the electron density and Faraday rotation estimates respectively, as well as useful scintillation measurements dominated by scintillation noise may be achieved utilizing a tri-band 3U CubeSat beacon with frequencies 144.2MHz, 432.6MHz, and 1297.8MHz, a transmitter power of no more than 4watts, and antenna requirements consistent with a dipole type antenna.

Estimation of the Propagation Time of the Solar Wind Pressure Pulse between a Shock Wave and the Magnetopause Based on Simultaneous Satellite and Ground-Based Observations

The propagation of solar wind inhomogeneities through the transition region between the bow shock front and the daytime magnetopause is an important link in the chain of solar-terrestrial connections. We analyzed a unique situation when two THEMIS satellites were near the bow shock during the solar wind pressure pulse, and the favorable location of the ground-based magnetometric equipment made it possible to determine the time of the solar wind impact on the magnetopause with greater accuracy than it was done previously. Based on the measurements, the propagation time of sudden impulse (SI) in the magnetosheath was estimated. The obtained value (~1 min) agrees with model calculations, but turns out to be 2–3 times less than that previously obtained by other authors also from satellite and ground-based observations. The propagation velocity of the solar wind in the magnetosheath (~280 km/s), the displacement velocity of the bow shock front to the Earth (~80 km/s), and the thickness of the magnetosheath at the location of the satellites (2.6–3.9RE) are determined.

ЖИТТЄВИЙ І НАУКОВИЙ ШЛЯХ ПАВЛА РОДІОНОВИЧА РОМАНЧУКА

One hundred years have passed since the birth of P.R. Romanchuk – Hero of the Soviet Union, Candidate of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Associate Professor, Director of the Astronomical Observatory (1972–1987). At his initiative, the observatory began to develop new scientific directions: theoretical research of magnetic fields and the beginning of experimental work after the purchase of a magnetograph, study of changes in the solar atmosphere associated with flare activity, solar-terrestrial connections and the impact of solar activity on weather phenomena, development of methods for predicting solar activity. An important result of his work was the strengthening of the observatory’s material base – purchase of a purchase of a magnetograph, modernization of a horizontal solar telescope, joint work with the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine on the development and manufacture of an axial meridian circle, purchase of equipment for television observations of meteors.

Studying of solar-terrestrial connections in the dynamics of the surface atmospheric electric field

The paper presents the results of the analysis of variations in the electric field intensity of the surface atmosphere obtained in high-latitude, high-altitude and lowland observation points, together with the parameters of solar and geomagnetic activity.

МНОЖЕСТВЕННЫЕ КОРРЕЛЯЦИОННЫЕ МОДЕЛИ ЗАВИСИМОСТИ ПОТОКОВ ИЗЛУЧЕНИЯ КОСМИЧЕСКИХ РАДИОИСТОЧНИКОВ В ДЕКАМЕТРОВОМ ДИАПАЗОНЕ ОТ ЭКСТРЕМАЛЬНЫХ ПРОЯВЛЕНИЙ КОСМИЧЕСКОЙ ПОГОДЫ

PACS numbers: 95.55.Jz, 95.85.Bh, 96.50.Wx Purpose: Investigation of the effects of the influence of solar and geomagnetic activity on the condition of the Earth’s upper atmosphere by the method of “transmission through” it with the radiation of cosmic radio sources. Design/methodology/approach: Monitoring of the fluxes of powerful galactic and extragalactic radio sources is carried out at the URAN-4 radio telescope of the Odesa Observatory of the Institute of Radio Astronomy of the NAS of Ukraine since 1987 till now. The monitoring program includes radio galaxies 3C274, 3C405 and supernova remnants 3C144, 3C461. Changes of fluxes of radiation sources at decameter waves are determined by the condition of an ionosphere resulted due to space weather variation. Findings: The models of multiple correlation dependence of fluxes of radio sources on the factors forming space weather for the periods of extreme conditions of the solar and geomagnetic activity are considered. The explanatory variables are divided into three groups: indices of solar activity, flows of particles, magnetic field components. Over 60 models of the multiple correlation dependence were calculated. Values of a multiple coefficient of correlation within 0.86 to 0.99 were obtained. The greatest contribution to the quantity of a multiple coefficient of correlation give: solar radio emission at the wave of 10.7 cm (F10.7), the total area of groups of spots (Sp), flows of electrons (E) and protons (P). Conclusions: Monitoring of fluxes of space radio sources made at the “URAN-4” radio telescope makes it possible to “transmit through” the Earth ionosphere above the radio telescope and determines the integral effect of the solar and geomagnetic activity influence on it. The great amount of the data observed with using the “URAN-4” radio telescope allows more detailed study of the influence of space weather effects in the ionosphere to be made in our next works. Key words: upper atmosphere, solar activity, geomagnetic activity, space weather Manuscript submitted 26.06.2018 Radio phys. radio astron. 2018, 23(3): 189-202 REFERENCES 1. RYABOV, M. I., PANISHKO, S. K. and GUGLYA, L. I., 2011. Space weather impacts on the Earth’s upper atmosphere according to the monitoring of powerful radio sources fluxes at the URAN-4 radio telescope (Institute of Radio Astronomy, NAS of Ukraine). Odessa Astronomical Publications . vol. 24, pp. 159–161. (in Russian). 2. SOBITNIAK, L. I., RYABOV, M. I., SUKHAREV, A. L. and PANISHKO, S. K., 2017. Structure of variability indexes of cosmic weather as applied to data monitoring of fluxes of radio sources at the “URAN-4” radio telescope. Radio Phys. Radio Astron . vol. 22, no. 4, pp. 294–303 (in Russian). DOI: https://doi.org/10.15407/rpra22.04.294 3. BOROVIKOV, V. A., 2001. STATISTICA: The art of data analysis on a computer . St. Petersburg: Piter Publ. (in Russian). 4. BRUZEK, A. and DURRANT, C. J., eds., 1977. Illustrated glossary for solar and solar-terrestrial physics . Dordrecht, Boston: D. Reidel Pub. Co. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-010-1245-4 5. IVANOV-KHOLODNYI, G. S. and NIKOLSKY, G. M., 1969. The Sun and Ionosphere. Short wave solar radiation and its effect on the ionosphere . Moscow, Russia: Nauka Publ. (in Russian). 6. RUSSELL, C. T. and MCPHERRON, R. L., 1973. Semiannual Variation of Geomagnetic Activity. J. Geophys. Res. Space Phys . vol. 78, is. 1, pp. 92–108. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/JA078i001p00092 7. ZELENYI, L. M. and VESELOVSKIY, I. S., eds., 2008. Plasma heliogeophysics . Moscow, Russia: Fizmatlit Publ. vol. 1-2. (in Russian). 8. MIROSHNICHENKO, L. I., 2011. Physics of the Sun and solar-terrestrial connections . Moscow, Russia: Universitetskaya Kniga Publ. (in Russian). 9. OBRIDKO, V. N. and NAGOVITSYN, YU. A., 2017. Solar activity, cyclicity and prediction methods . St. Petersburg: VVM Publ. (in Russian).

New Opportunities for a Historic Spacecraft

On 10 August 2014, an extraordinary spacecraft will return to Earth after having been away for 30 years. Plans are emerging and actions are being taken to reactivate the International Sun-Earth Explorer 3 (ISEE 3, later renamed the International Cometary Explorer (ICE)) and enable it to gather new scientific data. The NASA-European Space Agency ISEE pioneered the multipoint approach to studying solar-terrestrial connections. ISEE 1 and ISEE 2 were launched in 1977, and ISEE 3 was launched in 1978. These spacecraft were designed to explore the relationship between the incoming solar wind (sampled by ISEE 3) and Earth's magnetosphere (sampled by ISEE 1 and ISEE 2). ISEE 3 is notable for many space firsts. It was the first spacecraft in a “halo orbit” around the Sun-Earth L1 libration point. Later, it became the first spacecraft to intercept a comet when, after being renamed ICE, it was sent to comet Giacobini-Zinner in 1985. After a distant encounter with Halley's comet in 1986, ISEE 3/ICE continued on its heliocentric orbit. In August 2014, this trajectory will bring the spacecraft on a close approach with Earth and will provide an opportunity to return it to active service. The spacecraft carries 13 plasma, high-energy particle, field, and wave sensors, most of which were still functional as of 1999. The current health of these instruments needs to be evaluated, but a test in 2008 confirmed ISEE 3/ICE's location and clearly detected the spacecraft carrier signal. The spacecraft has sufficient fuel (approximately 150 meters per second of change in velocity (?V) capability) to send it back to L1. Much of the documentation from the initial mission programming was lost, but members of the original team are now working on rebuilding the commands necessary for spacecraft control and data acquisition. Once these commands are rebuilt, the Deep Space Network will be used to communicate with the spacecraft and determine instrument health. Demonstrating that we can communicate with the spacecraft and that it is sufficiently healthy is a crucial step toward a new mission in 2014. On what new adventures do we send our venerable explorer? One option is that it could return to the L1 halo orbit. Much more is known about space weather now than was known 30 years ago. Even so, multipoint space weather monitoring and research are more important than ever, and this spacecraft is an exceptional candidate to serve as a space weather monitor providing complementary and cost-effective measurements of the solar wind. However, ISEE 3/ICE can serve many more purposes. Controlling this comparatively simple spacecraft, now well beyond warranty, would be an ideal training opportunity for young scientists and engineers. A single PC, for example, could support the entire ground system, a prime example of NASA's ability to do “more with less.” For more information on ISEE 3, see http://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/nmc/spacecraftDisplay.do?id=1978-079A. Leonard Garcia is a research scientist working for Wyle Information Systems at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md. E-mail: leonard.n.garcia@nasa.gov. Robert Farquhar is Executive for Space Exploration at KinetX, Inc., Tempe, Ariz. Timothy Eastman is a research scientist working for Wyle Information Systems at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.

IONOSAT – Ionospheric satellite cluster

The IONOSAT project (from IONOspheric SATellites) is proposed by National Space Agency of Ukraine for First European Space Program as a part of Space Weather (SW) Program. As it is commonly accepted, Space Weather means the changes of the conditions on the Sun, in solar wind, magnetosphere and ionosphere which may affect the operation and reliability of on-board and ground technological systems and threaten human health. In this chain ionosphere is specific and integral part of SW formation. Moreover, namely in the ionosphere main part of the energy absorption of Sun-activated sporadic corpuscular and radiation fluxes takes places. The excitation of ionosphere by falling fluxes produces its “luminescence” in wide frequency band – from ULF waves till ultraviolet – and by this ionosphere works as an efficient “screen” or SW indicator. A goal of the proposed project is long-term spatial–temporal monitoring of main field and plasma parameters of ionosphere with aim to further develop fundamental conceptions of solar-terrestrial connections physics, nowcasting and forecast of SW, and diagnostics of natural and technogenic hazards with the help of scientific payload installed on-board a cluster of 3 low-Earth orbit (LEO) microsatellites (tentative launch date – 2012 year). The state of the project proposal and realization plans are discussed.

Long-term solar activity and terrestrial connections. Part II: at the beckon of the sun?

Abstract. The research task described herein aims at the structuring of an analytical tool that traces the time course of geophysical phenomena, regional or global, and compares it to the course of long-term solar conditions, long-term meaning decades or a few centuries. The model is based on the premise that since in a last analysis the preponderance of atmospheric, hydrospheric, and, possibly, some aspects of geospheric phenomena are, or have been, powered by energy issuing from the sun - either now or in the past - the long-term behavior of such phenomena is ultimately "connected" to long-term changes occurring in the sun itself. Accordingly, the proposed research firstly derives and models a stable surrogate pattern for the long-term solar activity, secondly introduces a transfer-function algorithm for modeling the connection between the surrogate and terrestrial phenomena viewed as partners in the connection, and thirdly probes the connection outcome for episodic or unanticipated effects that may arise due to the fact that in the present context, the connection, should it exist, is very likely nonlinear. Part I of the study presents the theory of the concept, while Part II demonstrates the concept's pertinence to a number of terrestrial phenomena.Key words. Solar activity · Kolmogorov algorithm

Long-term solar activity and terrestrial connections. Part I: theory

Abstract. The research task described herein aims at the structuring of an analytical tool that traces the time course of geophysical phenomena, regional or global, and compares it to the course of long-term solar conditions, long-term meaning decades or a few centuries. The model is based on the premise that since in a last analysis the preponderance of atmospheric, hydrospheric, and, possibly, some aspects of geospheric phenomena are, or have been, powered by energy issuing from the sun – either now or in the past, the long-term behavior of such phenomena is ultimately "connected" to long-term changes occurring in the sun itself. Accordingly, the proposed research firstly derives and models a stable surrogate pattern for the long-term solar activity, secondly introduces a transfer-function algorithm for modeling the connection between the surrogate and terrestrial phenomena viewed as partners in the connection, and thirdly probes the connection outcome for episodic or unanticipated effects that may arise due to the fact that in the present context, the connection, should it exist, is very likely nonlinear. Part I of the study presents the theory of the concept, while Part II demonstrates the concept's pertinence to a number of terrestrial phenomena.Key words. Solar activity · Kolmogorov algorithm

Long-term solar activity and terrestrial connections. Part II: at the beckon of the sun?

The research task described herein aims at the structuring of an analytical tool that traces the time course of geophysical phenomena, regional or global, and compares it to the course of long-term solar conditions, long-term meaning decades or a few centuries. The model is based on the premise that since in a last analysis the preponderance of atmospheric, hydrospheric, and, possibly, some aspects of geospheric phenomena are, or have been, powered by energy issuing from the sun - either now or in the past - the long-term behavior of such phenomena is ultimately "connected" to long-term changes occurring in the sun itself. Accordingly, the proposed research firstly derives and models a stable surrogate pattern for the long-term solar activity, secondly introduces a transfer-function algorithm for modeling the connection between the surrogate and terrestrial phenomena viewed as partners in the connection, and thirdly probes the connection outcome for episodic or unanticipated effects that may arise due to the fact that in the present context, the connection, should it exist, is very likely nonlinear. Part I of the study presents the theory of the concept, while Part II demonstrates the concept's pertinence to a number of terrestrial phenomena.Key words. Solar activity · Kolmogorov algorithm

Long-term solar activity and terrestrial connections.

Long-term solar activity and terrestrial connections.

Interplanetary magnetic field and ionospheric F region

Using data from the network of ionospheric stations it is shown that the parameters of the interplanetary magnetic field play a decisive role. In particular, the B 2 component is most important in solar-terrestrial connections. This fact should be taken into account at ionospheric modelling and forecasting.