Phase Of Solar Activity Research Articles

Height profile variations of ionospheric conductivity: A case study in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Ionospheric conductivity is the ability to conduct ionospheric current and is impacted by a variety of current system flows in height profiles, which increase ionosphere conductivity. In this study, we have analyzed the height profiles of the ionospheric conductivity daily and monthly variations in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, during a very low solar activity phase in the year 2020. The daily height profile variations of ionospheric conductivity in Addis Ababa with geographic latitude 9o N and longitude 39o E are estimated at midnight (00:00 UT), morning (09:00 UT), mid-day (12:00 UT), and early nighttime (18:00 UT). The monthly variations of ionospheric conductivity (parallel, Pedersen, and Hall conductivity) are also presented for all months, with the highest ionospheric variability occurring after noon (14.00 UT). At midnight (00:00 UT) and early nighttime (18:00 UT), the ionospheric conductivity shows more fluctuation than in the morning (09:00 UT) and midday (12:00 UT) in diurnal variation. The monthly variations of ionospheric conductivity (parallel, Pedersen, and Hall conductivity) in the daytime at 14:00 UT increase steeply to reach their peak values and keep the sharpness of their variability.

Statistical Analysis of Flux Enhancements of Energetic Electrons in the Low-Latitudinal Ionosphere According to the Data from the NOAA/POES and MetOp Satellites from 1998 to 2022

The intense precipitation of energetic electrons from the Earth’s radiation belt (ERB) is one of the most important sources of ionization in the ionosphere and atmosphere. A large-scale statistical analysis is carried out of the data from continuous low-orbit satellite observations of solar-cycle variations in the flux enhancements of the ERB electrons with energy >30 keV at an altitude of 850 km, acquired from the NOAA/POES and MetOp satellites in the interval from 1998 to 2022. The basic features of artificial failures in the satellite database with high-time resolution measurements in the interval from 2014 to 2022 are found and described. Appropriate data correction is carried out. It is shown that the average annual number of days with electron flux enhancements increases rapidly within three years after the solar-cycle maximum and reaches its greatest value near the middle of the declining phase of solar activity. Then the frequency of event occurrence begins to decrease noticeably within an 8-year interval, including the minimum, rising, and maximum phases of the solar cycle. The minimum level is achieved at the maximum solar activity.

Equatorial Plasma Bubbles Characteristics Studies using IRNSS Data around Bangalore

TEC analysis stands as a cornerstone in navigation, enabling the examination of sudden shifts in Total Electron Content (TEC). Equatorial Plasma Bubbles (EPBs) are discerned through TEC analysis, which proves superior to alternative approaches. This method furnishes insights into EPB occurrences, offering valuable data on their daily and seasonal fluctuations within the ionosphere. Analysis of TEC data from January 2015 to 2022, derived from IRNSS observations in Bangalore, reveals patterns in EPB occurrence correlated with the sunspot cycle and solar flux variations. This alignment, observed during a phase of low solar activity, underscores the reliability of TEC analysis in capturing ionospheric dynamics.

Estimation of Radiation Exposure for Various Flights from Athens International Airport

In recent decades, the exposure of aviation crews and passengers to cosmic radiation has been progressively increasing due to the growing need of flights. Therefore, there is a need for radiation assessment software tools to act as a complement to other radiation protection techniques and countermeasures. In this work, the exposure to cosmic radiation is estimated for flights from Athens International Airport to various international destinations, by performing Monte Carlo simulations with the validated tool DYASTIMA/DYASTIMA-R. The results of the estimated total ambient dose equivalent, as well as the ambient dose equivalent rate for different flights, applying a typical flying level and constant atmospheric conditions, are presented for the first time. This study is carried out for different phases of solar activity for the time period from 1996 to 2019, which includes the two recent Solar Cycles 23 and 24.

Long-term equatorial ionosphere variations over Ethiopia

This paper focuses on the investigation of the long-term behavior of the equatorial ionosphere in Ethiopia. To explore the extended ionospheric variations, we analyze Total Electron Content (TEC) fluctuations in conjunction with solar activity indices, including F10.7 radio flux, EUV radiation, and Sunspot Number (SSN). The dataset used encompasses GPS-derived TEC records spanning 11 consecutive years from 2007 to 2017, corresponding to the period of solar cycle 24. Our analysis shows that the highest TEC levels generally occur during the post-noon hours, while the lowest values are observed around post-midnight or early morning. Notably, exceptions to this pattern are found in 2011 and 2013 when the highest TEC levels are observed during the December solstice. Otherwise, the seasonal TEC variation exhibits a semi-annual pattern, with peak TEC values occurring during the equinoxes and the lowest values during the solstices. Further examination demonstrates that in both solar activity phases, TEC magnitude is higher during the March Equinox compared to the September Equinox, and slightly higher during the December Solstice compared to the June Solstice. This reveals an asymmetry in the seasonal variations, encompassing the equinoxes, solstices, and the ascending and descending phases of the solar cycle. Our study confirms that long-term fluctuations in ionospheric TEC closely correspond to variations in solar activity indices. Correlation analysis indicates a strong link between all solar activity indices and TEC. Notably, while a negative correlation is observed in 2007, the correlation in 2011 is remarkably stronger. Additionally, we find that the long-term TEC variation exhibits stronger correlations with EUV and F10.7 radio flux than with SSN, with correlation coefficients of 0.86, 0.85, and 0.78, respectively. Lastly, our study extends previous research by identifying the long-term trends of vertical TEC (vTEC) in relation to various driving factors such as F10.7, SSN, and EUV.

European astronaut radiation related cancer risk assessment using dosimetric calculations of organ dose equivalents

An illustrative sample mission of a Mars swing-by mission lasting one calendar year was chosen to highlight the application of European risk assessment software to cancer (all solid cancer plus leukaemia) risks from radiation exposures in space quantified with organ dose equivalent rates from model calculations based on the quantity Radiation Attributed Decrease of Survival (RADS). The relevant dose equivalent to the colon for radiation exposures from this Mars swing-by mission were found to vary between 198 and 482 mSv. These doses depend on sex and the two other factors investigated here of: solar activity phase (maximum or minimum); and the choice of space radiation quality factor used in the calculations of dose equivalent. Such doses received at typical astronaut ages around 40 years old will result in: the probability of surviving until retirement age (65 years) being reduced by a range from 0.38% (95%CI: 0.29; 0.49) to 1.29% (95%CI: 1.06; 1.56); and the probability of surviving cancer free until retirement age being reduced by a range from 0.78% (95%CI: 0.59; 0.99) to 2.63% (95%CI: 2.16; 3.18). As expected from the features of the models applied to quantify the general dosimetric and radiation epidemiology parameters, the cancer incidence risks in terms of surviving cancer free, are higher than the cancer mortality risks in terms of surviving, the risks for females are higher than for males, and the risks at solar minimum are higher than at solar maximum.

Analysis of GPS-TEC and IRI model over equatorial and EIA stations during solar cycle 24

Total Electron Content (TEC) measurements provided by Global Positioning System (GPS) as well as the International Reference Ionosphere – 2016 model (IRI01-Corr, IRI-2001, and NeQuick) model were compared at two Indian GPS stations: equatorial station Bangalore (12.580N, 77.350 E) and equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) station Lucknow (26.500N, 80.550 E) during the solar cycle 24 extending from 2007 to 2017. The spectral, regression and statistical analysis displays a double-hump shape with counterclockwise hysteresis within TEC. The solar flux along with the TEC showed erratic as well as sluggish trends throughout the increasing period and flat and rapid throughout the decreasing period of the solar cycle 24. The semiannual and winter anomaly is discovered to be a constant feature throughout the solar cycle. The main idea of the current study is to investigate the performance of IRI01-Corr, IRI-2001, and NeQuick TEC in contrast to GPS TEC data throughout solar cycle 24 at the Indian equatorial and EIA stations. The modeled TEC data exhibit almost complete agreement with the measurement highlighting the same trends in the solar cycle as well as semiannual and seasonal changes. However, there are clear biases between the observed and modeled TECs when local time, seasons, as well as solar activity phases are considered. The main findings of this paper are that the NeQuick model generally underestimates noon-time TEC while the IRI-2001 model overestimates the same. The error in estimating noontime TEC from the IRI model using IRI-2001 as a topside at the EIA station is higher (142 %) than that at the equatorial station (42 %).

Forbush Decreases Associated with Coronal Holes, Coronal Ejections from Active Regions, and Filament Ejections: Comparison in Solar Cycles 23 and 24

In this paper, we study the similarities and differences of Forbush decreases in solar cycles 23 and24. Groups of events associated with various types of solar sources were analyzed: coronal mass ejections fromactive regions accompanied by solar flares (CME1 group), filament ejections outside active regions (CME2group), and high-velocity streams from coronal holes (CH group). The distributions and relations of variousparameters were studied: the amplitude of Forbush decreases, the maximum values of the hourly decrease inthe cosmic ray density, the equatorial cosmic ray anisotropy, the solar wind velocity, and the magnetic fieldstrength, as well as the values of the solar wind velocity and the magnetic field strength 1 hour before the onsetof the Forbush decrease during the event. The results showed that the number of events, parameter values,and their relations depend on the phase and cycle of solar activity. In the 24th cycle, the number of events inthe CME1 group decreased, did not change in CME2, and increased in CH. The values of the parametersand the difference between them in various groups of events are higher in cycle 23, which is characterized bygreater asymmetry and long “tails” of distributions. The magnitude of the Forbush decreases in the CME1group in cycle 23 depends more strongly on the solar wind velocity while, in cycle 24, on the magnetic fieldstrength, as in the CME2 group in both solar cycles. Multiple linear regression describes the dependences ofthe parameters of Forbush reductions in the CME1 and CME2 groups in the 23rd cycle and in the CME1group in the 24th cycle well.

Three-dimensional inversion of corona structure and simulation of solar wind parameters based on the photospheric magnetic field deduced from the Global Oscillation Network Group

In this research, the Potential Field Source Surface–Wang–Sheeley–Arge (PFSS–WSA) solar wind model is used. This model consists of the Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) coronal magnetic field extrapolation module and the Wang–Sheeley–Arge (WSA) solar wind velocity module. PFSS is implemented by the POT3D package deployed on Tianhe 1A supercomputer system. In order to obtain the three–dimensional (3D) distribution of the coronal magnetic field at different source surface radii (Rss), the model utilizes the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) photospheric magnetic field profiles for two Carrington rotations (CRs), CR2069 (in 2008) and CR2217 (in 2019), as the input data, with the source surface at Rss = 2Rs, Rss = 2.5Rs and Rss = 3Rs, respectively. Then the solar wind velocity, the coronal magnetic field expansion factor, and the minimum angular distance of the open magnetic field lines from the coronal hole boundary are estimated within the WSA module. The simulated solar wind speed is compared with the value for the corona extrapolated from the data observed near 1 AU, through the calculations of the mean square error (MSE), root mean square error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient (CC). Here we extrapolate the solar wind velocity at 1 AU back to the source surface via the Parker spiral. By comparing the evaluation metrics of the three source surface heights, we concluded that the solar source surface should be properly decreased with respect to Rss = 2.5Rs during the low solar activity phase of solar cycle 23.

Seasonal Variation of the F2-Layer Critical Frequency and Comparison with the IRI-2016 Model during Two Extremes of Solar Activity Phase of Solar Cycle 22

Abstract: Introduction: The variation of the ionosphere is mostly studied using the critical frequency of the F2-layer (foF2) whose values can also be predicted by an ionospheric model. The widely used model for predicting ionospheric parameters is the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI). Aim: This paper aims to demonstrate how well the current International Reference Ionosphere (IRI-2016) model performs in predicting the critical frequency of the F2-layer (foF2) over two equatorial stations during two extremes of solar activity phase of solar cycle 22.. Methods: The hourly foF2 experimental data collected during the Maximum Phase of Solar Activity MPSA year (1989) and Minimum Phase of Solar Activity MnPSA year (1986) at Ougadougou (Geomagnetic Latitude 0.59 oN, Geomagnetic Longitude 71.46 oE) in the African longitudinal sector and Manila (Geomagnetic Latitude 3.4 oN, Geomagnetic Longitude 191.1 oE) in the Asia longitudinal sector as well as the predicted foF2 data by the IRI-2016 model were used in this study. Sunspot data from Zurich was utilized as a measure of solar activity phase. The foF2 data were grouped into four seasons before analysis began. Comparing the seasonal means of the experimental foF2 data and the IRI-2016 modeled foF2, it was possible to determine how closely the model matched the experimental data at the different seasons and longitudinal sectors Results: The results showed that the IRI-2016 model overestimate and underestimate the observed foF2 at different periods of the day during the equinox and solstice seasons. Observation showed that the highest positive and negative percentage deviations were observed mostly during the post-midnight hours. Observation also showed that Seasonal mean values of the IRI-2016 model of both options showed remarkable improvement at this two stations since their values have little difference from the observed foF2 values. Conclusion: The discrepancy (underestimation and overestimation) in the IRI-2016 model is found larger during MPSA year than during MnPSA year. The URSI option performs better than the CCIR option since its predicted values are much closer to the observed values. Both options of the model perform better in the Asian longitudinal sector than the African longitudinal sector.

Long-term forcing of the Sun’s coronal field, open flux, and cosmic ray modulation potential during grand minima, maxima, and regular activity phases by the solar dynamo mechanism

ABSTRACT Magnetic fields generated in the Sun’s interior by the dynamo mechanism drive solar activity over a range of time-scales. Direct sunspot observations exist for a few centuries; reconstructed variations based on cosmogenic isotopes in the solar open flux and cosmic ray flux exist over thousands of years. While such reconstructions indicate the presence of extreme solar activity fluctuations in the past, causal links between millennia scale dynamo activity, consequent coronal field, solar wind, open flux and cosmic ray flux variations remain elusive; a lack of coronal field observations compounds this issue. By utilizing a stochastically forced solar dynamo model and potential field source surface extrapolation, we perform long-term simulations to illuminate how dynamo generated magnetic fields govern the structure of the solar corona and the state of the heliosphere – as indicated by variations in the open flux and cosmic ray modulation potential. We establish differences in the nature of the large-scale structuring of the solar corona during grand maximum, minimum, and regular solar activity phases and simulate how the open flux and cosmic ray modulation potential vary across these different phases of activity. We demonstrate that the power spectrum of simulated and observationally reconstructed solar open flux time series are consistent with each other. Our study provides the theoretical foundation for interpreting long-term solar cycle variations inferred from cosmogenic isotope based reconstructions and establishes causality between solar internal variations to the forcing of the state of the heliosphere.

Analysis of Variation Characteristic of TEC at Kunming Region and Comparison with IRI-2020 during Descending Phase of Solar Activity

利用昆明低纬度测站（24.7°N，102.9°E，磁纬15.1°N）2016－2019年的观测数据和最新版的国际参考电离层（IRI-2020）模拟结果，对昆明地区电离层总电子含量（TEC）在太阳活动下降年期间的变化特征及与模型输出进行对比研究。结果表明, 昆明TEC存在明显的春秋高值、夏冬低值的半年异常；白天高值、夜间低值的日变化特点突出，日峰值出现在06:30－08:00 UT（约13:00－15:00 LT）；TEC随太阳活动减弱而明显下降，年平均峰值在2016－2019年分别为48，33，27，24 TECU；日峰值TEC与<i>F</i>_10.7存在显著相关，月均值相关系数达到0.86，而与<i>Ap</i>指数则表现为弱相关； IRI-2020能较好地模拟昆明地区TEC的季节变化，但与观测值存在较大差异；均方根偏差值多集中在2~15 TECU，相对偏差百分比值主要在–85%~50%范围变化。对比结果表明IRI-2020的预测精度仍有待提高。

Long‐Term Relationship Between foF2 From China Ionospheric Stations and Solar Activity During the 24th Solar Activity Cycle

AbstractThis paper employs the complete data of six ionospheric observation stations in China in the 24th solar activity cycle and researches the variation of frequency of the F2 layer (foF2) and the relationship with the solar activity indices. We discover that the dependence of foF2 on the sunspot number (R) and the solar radio flux of 10.7 cm wavelength (F10.7) is strongest in mid‐solar years, and weakest in high solar years. At the same time, the long‐term variation trends of foF2, R and F10.7 in the complete 24th solar activity cycle are analyzed using the mutual information method in information theory. We utilize the linear and nonlinear methods to compare the effects of long term change relationship between foF2 and R during the rising and falling phases of solar activity. The findings reveal that the sunspot number is more suitable to depict the long‐term trend of foF2 in China, and the relationship between them is better described by nonlinear quasi‐polynomial. This result has important implications for improving foF2 forecasts and the prediction accuracy of some ionospheric models.

A machine learning approach for total electron content (TEC) prediction over the northern anomaly crest region in Egypt

In this paper, we developed an empirical model for predicting Total Electron Content (TEC) on a single station receiver located within the equatorial anomaly crest region at Helwan – Egypt (29.86°N, 31.32°E & MLAT 27.02°N). The neural network algorithm was developed from several inputs representing diurnal, seasonal, and solar cycle variations, solar and geomagnetic activity, and solar wind parameters using TEC data collected by the SCINDA GPS receiver. The TEC data collected for about nine years from 2009 to 2017 comprises almost the whole solar cycle 24 allowing the developed model to be validated and tested for different solar activity conditions. The 2009 – 2016 dataset was randomly divided into 70% for training, and 30% for validation during model development while the 2017 dataset was reserved for testing the model during independent validation. The validation was done by comparing TEC from the developed model and TEC derived from the GPS scintillation and TEC monitor (GPSTEC). Knowing that TEC modeling over the equatorial anomaly crest regions is challenging since it is characterized by high temporal and spatial variations, the developed model reconstructed diurnal GPSTEC from 2014 to 2016 with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 4.0 TECU and 3.2 TECU for high and low solar activity phases respectively. The neural network (NN) modeled TEC was highly correlated with GPSTEC, that is 0.93 and 0.94 for low and high solar activity respectively. In comparison, the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI)-2016 model predicted the general trend of GPSTEC in 2017 with RMSE of 5.43 TECU better than the developed TEC model with RMSE of 5.74 TECU. However, the NN model predicted diurnal GPSTEC for selected quiet and disturbed days, and seasonal TEC better than the IRI model in 2017. Therefore, the developed model was able to capture temporal ionospheric TEC for diurnal and seasonal variations during low solar activity. It was established that the performance of the empirical model depends on the size and distribution of the data used for model development. It’s worth noting that despite the improved performance of the NN algorithm in predicting diurnal and seasonal TEC variation, the NN-modeled TEC performed poorly in reconstructing the nighttime anomalies exhibited in the GPSTEC. The inclusion of the IRI-NmF2 as network input also adds to the improved performance of the network.

Revisiting Ulysses electron data with a triple fit of velocity distributions

Context. Given their uniqueness, the Ulysses data can still provide us with valuable new clues about the properties of plasma populations in the solar wind, and especially about their variations with heliographic coordinates. In the context of kinetic waves and instabilities in the solar wind plasma, the electron temperature anisotropy plays a crucial role. To date, two electron populations (the core and the halo) have been surveyed using anisotropic fitting models, limited in general to the ecliptic observations. Aims. We revisit the electron data reported by the SWOOPS instrument on board the Ulysses spacecraft between 1990 and early 2008. These observations reveal velocity distributions out of thermal equilibrium, with anisotropies (e.g., parallel drifts and/or different temperatures, parallel and perpendicular to the background magnetic field), and quasi-thermal and suprathermal populations with different properties. Methods. We apply a 2D non-linear least squares fitting procedure, using the Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm, to simultaneously fit the velocity electron data (up to a few keV) with a triple model combining three distinct populations: the more central quasi-thermal core, the suprathermal halo, and a second suprathermal population consisting mainly of the electron strahl (or beaming population with a major field-aligned drift). The recently introduced κ-cookbook is used to describe each component with the following anisotropic distribution functions (recipes): Maxwellian distribution, regularized κ-distribution, and generalized κ-distribution. Most relevant are triple combinations selected as best fits (BFs) with minimum relative errors and standard deviations. Results. The number of BFs obtained for each fitting combination is 80.6% of the total number of events (70.7% in the absence of coronal mass ejections). Showing the distribution of the BFs for the entire data set, during the whole interval of time, enables us to identify the most representative fitting combinations associated with either fast or slow winds, and different phases of solar activity. The temperature anisotropy quantified by the best fits is considered a case study of the main parameters characterizing electron populations. By comparison to the core, both suprathermal populations exhibit higher temperature anisotropies, which slightly increase with the energy of electrons. Moreover, these anisotropies manifest different dependences on the solar wind speed and heliographic coordinates, and are highly conditioned by the fitting model. Conclusions. These results demonstrate that the characterization of plasma particles is highly dependent on the fitting models and their combinations, and this method must be considered with caution. However, the multi-distribution function fitting of velocity distributions has a significant potential to advance our understanding of solar wind kinetics and deserves further quantitative analyses.

Оптимальные затраты на комбинированный увод крупногабаритных объектов космического мусора с использованием электрореактивной двигательной установки

The article proposes the development of a method for the combined deorbiting large space debris objects from low Earth orbits, performed using an electric propulsion engine and an aerodynamic sailing device. Simulation modeling of the combined deorbiting was carried out for various combinations of parameters of deorbit scheme, such as the altitude of the initial orbit, the phase of solar activity at the moment of deorbiting start, the ballistic coefficient, the time of active operation of the control system, and the time of one battery charge. Analytical dependences of the minimum increment in the velocity of an electric propulsion system, gained in one impulse, and the minimum number of impulses on the parameters of the deorbiting scheme, necessary to ensure the withdrawal for 25 years, are determined. Sectors of the solar activity phase at the moment of the deorbiting start providing optimal energy costs for the withdrawal process, are identified. The results obtained are of practical interest for the problems of designing modern means of deorbiting large space objects from low Earth orbits at enterprises in the rocket and space industry.

Solar Cycle and Seasonal Variability of Martian Ionospheric Irregularities from Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution Observations

Spacecraft observations around Mars show that ionospheric irregularities occur frequently in the Martian ionosphere. In this study, Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution data (the region is below ∼200 km) during 2015 January to 2021 March were used to revisit the statistical characteristics of ionospheric irregularities and the comparison of irregularities in Martian years with higher or lower solar activity phase of solar cycle. Results show that the characteristics of the irregularities with a larger length scale associated with the magnetic field and solar zenith angle are similar to the previous studies. Moreover, our results show that the occurrence rate of irregularities exhibits dawn and dusk asymmetry, and the occurrence rate at dusk is higher than that at dawn. In addition, results demonstrate that the occurrence rate of irregularities is higher in Martian years with higher solar activity than Martian years with lower solar activity, which means that the solar cycle might play an important role in the formation of irregularity events. Further studies show that the solar zenith angle (SZA) and altitude at the maximum occurrence rate depend on the level of solar activity. The SZA and altitude of the maximum occurrence rate are smaller in the Martian year with higher solar activity than the lower. We also found that the rate of events is lower during the day than the terminator in the ionospheric dynamo region. By contrast, in the regions where both electrons and ions are magnetized, events have a higher rate during the day than the terminator. Furthermore, the seasonal variation of the irregularity events was also presented in this study. Results show that the occurrence rate in the dynamo region with 80° < SZA < 150° in MY34 and MY35 show an incremental trend from spring to winter, but this trend is not obvious in MY33.

Evaluation of long-term variability of ionospheric total electron content from IRI-2016 model over the Indian sub-continent with a latitudinal chain of dual-frequency geodetic GPS observations during 2002 to 2019

• Performance of IRI-2016 model is probed through geodetic GPS TEC during 2002–2019. • Large discrepancy is observed in high solar activity phases in both solar cycles. • IRI model fails to manifest the strength of ionization around EIA crest regions. • Differences are observed more during day time hours in all the phases of solar activity. • Winter anomaly is not reflected in IRI outputs during high solar activity years. We evaluate the performance of the latest version of International Reference Ionosphere (IRI-2016) by comparing the estimated Total Electron Content (TEC) with the observed values from four geodetic Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers, latitudinally aligned from the equator to low latitudes (−5° to 20° Geomagnetic) in the Indian longitudes (75–95°) from 2002 to 2019. It is observed that IRI-2016 model underestimates and overestimates the GPS TEC depending on the season, solar activity, and geographic location of observation. On a decadal scale, the monthly mean of IRI TEC and GPS TEC show distinct seasonal variation trends for all years with seasonal asymmetry. The bias and RMSE values are low in the ascending and descending phases of solar cycles 23 and 24 compared to high values with significant fluctuations observed during the peak solar activity phase. For the declining phase of solar cycle 24, IRI TEC underestimates the GPS TEC values at EIA crest regions. On an annual scale, IRI TEC agrees better with GPS TEC during the low solar activity years (2010 and 2019) than the high solar activity years (2002 and 2014). Moreover, IRI model is unable to manifest the winter anomaly characteristics during the high solar activity years. On a diurnal scale, the performance of IRI model is poor with high RMSE during daytime hours and it underestimates the GPS TEC at equatorial and low latitude regions during the high solar activity phases. On a seasonal scale, high bias and RMSE are observed during the spring equinox compared to other seasons under the high solar activity phases. On a spatial scale, the bias and RMSE are high with low yearly coefficient of determination ( R 2 ) in the EIA crest regions as compared to the equatorial and low latitude regions. High underestimation of IRI model was also observed in November 2011 due to high solar indices. The proportionality relationship between RMSE and solar indices is observed in all the phases of solar activity. Additionally, the mean annual RMSE and R 2 values indicate solar activity predominantly affecting the performance of IRI model. This study suggests that the influence of solar and magnetic indices inputs in the present IRI model could be revisited for reflecting the solar activity effects distinctly in the model outputs. In addition, IRI-2016 model requires further improvements for equatorial, low latitude, and EIA crest regions of the Indian sub-continent, specifically during the high solar activity phases.

Energetic Dynamics of the Inner Magnetosphere in Contact with Fast Solar Wind Currents: Case of the Period 1964-2009

The Earth’s magnetosphere is a magnetic shield that protects Earth from high-energy particles and is subject to a series of internal processes caused by jets of the solar wind (SW) that destabilize it. These disturbances affect health as well as technology and become more extreme when SW is more accelerated. Thus, to better understand the impact of high-speed solar wind (HSSW) invasion on the dynamics of the magnetospheric system, a statistical study of HSSW populations was conducted for even (20 and 22) and odd (21 and 23) solar cycles. The regression analysis using the solar-derived fields from all solar cycles, indicates three states of the inner magnetosphere: 1) the 00:00UT-15:00UT period marked by a magnetic reconnection on the day side of the Earth closest to the Sun with the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) facing South; 2) the 15:00UT-21:00UT period where IMF changes from South to North and remains there until 21:00UT; and 3) the 21:00UT-24:00UT period where there is a reconnection on the night side with stretched field lines. Observations made at different phases of solar activity lead us to suggest that the magnetospheric electric field (EM) and the Bz component of IMF (IMF-Bz) are strongly correlated not only at a particular time scale, but at different time scales. We believe that the daily fluctuations of the electrical and magnetic effects of magnetospheric origin currents play a very important role in the dayside magnetic reconnection rate. Moreover, examination of the cycles with different parities shows important amplitudes of the solar causes for the even cycles compared to the odd solar cycles. Therefore, even solar cycles have a strong influence on our socio-economic system compared to odd cycles.

Breathing of the Heliosphere

Abstract In late 2016, the Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) observed an enhancement of hydrogen energetic neutral atom (ENA) flux in ∼20° south from the nose direction. This enhancement was a consequence of an abrupt increase of the solar wind (SW) dynamic pressure observed at 1 au in late 2014. In subsequent years, the increased flux of 4.3 keV ENAs was observed at higher latitudes filling in the heliosheath, in ENAs at lower energies, and the Ribbon flux. We observe that the rapid increase of SW pressure occurs every solar cycle (SC) from the beginning of the regular in situ SW measurements in the ecliptic plane. The SW pressure pulse happens about 4.7 yr from the beginning of each SC, it is during the maximum phase of solar activity, and repeats with a period of ∼10.2 yr. These repeating pulses of the SW pressure can cause periodic SC variations of the ENA production in the heliosheath. We follow McComas et al. results for the relation between SW pressure increase and ENA flux enhancement to investigate the periodic SW pressure increases and their consequences for the heliosphere. Our study of time delay between the cause (pressure pulse at 1 au) and the consequence (ENA enhancement) show that IBEX observed in 2009–2011 remnants of the SW pressure pulse that happened during the maximum of SC 23.