Characteristics Of Solar Activity Research Articles

A study of the asymmetrical distribution of solar activity features on solar and plasma parameters (1967–2016)

The impact of asymmetrical distribution of hemispheric sunspot areas (SSAs) on the interplanetary magnetic field, plasma, and solar parameters from 1967 to 2016 has been studied. The N-S asymmetry of solar-plasma activities based on SSAs has a northern dominance during solar cycles 20 and 24. However, it has a tendency to shift to the southern hemisphere in cycles 21, 22, and 23. The solar cycle 23 showed that the sorted southern SSAs days predominated over the northern days by ∼17%. Through the solar cycles 21–24, the SSAs of the southern hemisphere were more active. In contrast, the northern SSAs predominate over the southern one by 9% throughout solar cycle 20. On the other hand, the average differences of field magnitude for the sorted northern and southern groups during solar cycles 20–24 are statistically insignificant. Clearly, twenty years showed that the solar plasma ion density from the sorted northern group was denser than that of southern group and a highest northern dominant peak occurred in 1971. In contrast, seventeen out of fifty years showed the reverse. In addition, there are fifteen clear asymmetries of solar wind speed (SWS), with SWS (N) > SWS (S), and during the years 1972, 2002, and 2008, the SWS from the sorted northern group was faster than that of southern activity group by 6.16 ± 0.65 km/s, 5.70 ± 0.86 km/s, and 5.76 ± 1.35 km/s, respectively. For the solar cycles 20–24, the grand-averages of P from the sorted solar northern and southern have nearly the same parameter values. The solar plasma was hotter for the sorted northern activity group than the southern ones for 17 years out of 50. Most significant northern prevalent asymmetries were found in 1972 (5.76 ± 0.66 × 103 K) and 1996 (4.7 ± 0.8 × 103 K), while two significant equivalent dominant southern asymmetries (∼3.8 ± 0.3 × 103 K) occurred in 1978 and 1993. The grand averages of sunspot numbers have symmetric activity for the two sorted northern and southern hemispheres through the solar cycles 20 and 21. The sunspots tend to be the southern dominance during the solar cycles 22 and 23, and it shifted during solar cycle 24 to symmetric distribution on both solar hemispheres.

Century long study of sunspot activity using the Kodaikanal white-light data

AbstractSunspots are the most obvious and high contrast observable feature of solar magnetic activity in the photosphere. The morphological and kinematic behavior of sunspots on the solar surface need to be studied over a long time period to understand solar magnetic activity. For this, it is important to understand the long term emergence patterns, and developments, decay of the sunspots on the solar surface over many cycles. The long time sequence of the Kodaikanal white-light images provide a consistent data set for this study. The digitized images were calibrated for relative plate density and aligned in such a way that the solar north is in upward direction. A sunspot detection technique was used to identify the sunspots on the digitized images. In addition to describing the calibration procedure and availability of the data, we here present results on the sunspot, umbral and penumbral area measurements and their variation with time.

Halo coronal mass ejections during Solar Cycle 24: reconstruction of the global scenario and geoeffectiveness

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs), in particular Earth-directed ones, are regarded as the main drivers of geomagnetic activity. In this study, we present a statistical analysis of a set of 53 fast (V ≥ 1000 km·s−1) Earth-directed halo CMEs observed by the SOHO/LASCO instrument during the period Jan. 2009–Sep. 2015, and we then use this CME sample to test the forecasting capabilities of a new Sun-to-Earth prediction scheme for the geoeffectiveness of Earth-directed halo CMEs. First, we investigate the CME association with other solar activity features such as solar flares, active regions, and others, by means of multi-instrument observations of the solar magnetic and plasma properties, with the final aim of identifying recurrent peculiar features that can be used as precursors of CME-driven geomagnetic storms. Second, using coronagraphic images to derive the CME kinematical properties at 0.1 AU, we propagate the events to 1 AU by means of 3D global MHD simulations. In particular, we use the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model to reconstruct the propagation and global evolution of each event up to their arrival at Earth, where simulation results are compared with interplanetary CME (ICME) in-situ signatures. We then use simulation outputs upstream of Earth to predict their impact on geospace. By applying the pressure balance condition at the magnetopause and the coupling function proposed by Newell et al. [J Geophys Res: Space Phys 113 (2008)] to link upstream solar wind properties to the global Kp index, we estimate the expected magnetospheric compression and geomagnetic activity level, and compare our predictions with global data records. The analysis indicates that 82% of the fast Earth-directed halo CMEs arrived at Earth within the next 4 days. Almost the totality of them compressed the magnetopause below geosynchronous orbits and triggered a minor or major geomagnetic storm afterwards. Among them, complex sunspot-rich active regions associated with X- and M-class flares are the most favourable configurations from which geoeffective CMEs originate. The analysis of related Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events shows that 74% of the CMEs associated with major SEPs were geoeffective, i.e. they triggered a minor to intense geomagnetic storm (Kp ≥ 5). Moreover, the SEP production is enhanced in the case of fast and interacting CMEs. In this work we present a first attempt at applying a Sun-to-Earth geoeffectiveness prediction scheme − based on 3D simulations and solar wind-geomagnetic activity coupling functions − to a statistical set of fast Earth-directed, potentially geoeffective halo CMEs. The results of the prediction scheme are promising and in good agreement with the actual data records for geomagnetic activity. However, we point out the need for future studies performing a fine-tuning of the prediction scheme, in particular in terms of the evaluation of the CME input parameters and the modelling of their internal magnetic structure.

An improved prediction of sunspot maximum by Vondrak smoothing method

Studies of solar activity characteristics and prediction are gaining more attention. Using the 13‐month smoothed value of monthly sunspot numbers, we studied correlations between the rising rate of sunspot numbers of the first 24 months of the solar cycle (SC) and the coming cycle maximum; published forecasting results demonstrated that the maximum value was 139.2 ± 18.8 for the 23rd SC, while the observed value was 120.8 and the error was about 15.2%. The present paper introduces our improved forecasting methods. The Vondrak smoothing method is used to deal with the monthly sunspot numbers. The relationships between the rise rate of earlier months of sunspot numbers of Vondrak smoothed sequence and the coming maximum value in each SC are studied. The results show that the rising rate of sunspot numbers are highly related with the coming maximum values, and simulated prediction of maximum for 22 ∼ 24 cycles show that, using the 24‐month rise rate of three SCs, the maximum forecasting error is about 8.6%. The differences between prediction and observation of ascending time are within ±10%. The new prediction method can shift at least 6 months ahead in comparison with the common method using the 13‐month smoothed value, that is, the amplitude and epoch of solar maximum in the SC can be predicted about 2 years after the solar minimum.

Latitude and Power Characteristics of Solar Activity at the End of the Maunder Minimum

Two important sources of information about sunspots in the Maunder minimum are the Sporer catalog (Sporer, 1889) and observations of the Paris observatory (Ribes and Nesme-Ribes, 1993), which cover in total the last quarter of the 17th and the first two decades of the 18th century. These data, in particular, contain information about sunspot latitudes. As we showed in (Ivanov et al., 2011; Ivanov and Miletsky, 2016), dispersions of sunspot latitude distributions are tightly related to sunspot indices, and we can estimate the level of solar activity in the past using a method which is not based on direct calculation of sunspots and weakly affected by loss of observational data. The latitude distributions of sunspots in the time of transition from the Maunder minimum to the regular regime of solar activity proved to be wide enough. It gives evidences in favor of, first, not very low cycle no.–3 (1712–1723) with the Wolf number in maximum W = 100 ± 50, and, second, nonzero activity in the maximum of cycle no.–4 (1700–1711) W = 60 ± 45. Therefore, the latitude distributions in the end of the Maunder minimum are in better agreement with the traditional Wolf numbers and new revisited indices of activity SN and GN (Clette et al., 2014; Svalgaard and Schatten, 2016) than with the GSN (Hoyt and Schatten, 1998); the latter provide much lower level of activity in this epoch.

Reply to comment on the paper “ on a role of quadruple component of magnetic field in defining solar activity in grand cycles” by Usoskin (2017)

In this communication we provide our answers to the comments by Usoskin (2017) on our recent paper (Popova et al, 2017a). We show that Principal Component Analysis (PCA) allows us to derive eigen vectors with eigen values assigned to variance of solar magnetic field waves from full disk solar magnetograms obtained in cycles 21–23 which came in pairs. The current paper (Popova et al, 2017a) adds the second pair of magnetic waves generated by quadruple magnetic sources. This allows us to recover a centennial cycle, in addition to the grand cycle, and to produce a closer fit to the solar and terrestrial activity features in the past millennium.

Test on the predictions of solar cycle using the rising rate of monthly sunspot number

The period of about 11-year is the most significant quasi-periodic component in solar activity. The amplitude of the period is often used to indicate the activity intensity of a solar cycle. Solar activity affects the space weather, spaceflight and Earth climate. Solar physical scientists pay attention to studies of solar activity, and some geo-scientists are interested in the relationship between solar activity and some geophysical phenomena. So prediction of relative number of sunspots (SSN) has attracted the attention of many scientists in order to understand the activity of new solar cycle and study the variation of geophysical phenomena. Some prediction methods were used to predict the amplitude of the coming solar cycle, especially for the prediction of the amplitudes for solar cycles 22–24. The results show that only about 1/3 are better in many predictions, the relative predicted error is less than 20%. So it is still difficult to accurately predict the maximum of SSN. In 2000, the amplitude for solar cycle 23 was predicted using rising rate of SSN in earlier ascending phase of cycles by Han. The subsequent compare of actual maximum and prediction showed that the relative predicted error is about 15.2%. The motivation of this paper is to simply introduce how to use the method to predict the solar cycle 23, test the simulation prediction for solar cycle 24 using the new version SSN series (V2.0), and compare the results with those obtained by other researchers using different methods, in order to proof-test the ability of the method. The method uses regression analysis to calculate the rising rates of monthly smoothed SSN in initial stage of past solar cycles, and then calculate the quantitative relationship between the rising rates and corresponding maximums of the solar cycles using regression analysis again. Some tests show that they have high correlation when we use SSN in 1–24 months of initial stage of past solar cycles. Then we calculate the rising rate and use the rate to predict the amplitude of the coming solar cycle. The paper focuses on the simulative predictions of maximum amplitude for 22–24 cycles using the method and V2.0 SSN series. For the 3 cycles, predicted values of maximum amplitudes are 234.9, 191.9 and 134.1, they are in good agreement with the actual values, 212.5, 180.3, 116.4, and the relative prediction errors are about 10.6%, 6.4% and 15.2%, respectively. This shows that the prediction method has a certain application value possibly. Anyway, the studies of solar activity characteristics should be continually enhanced, as well as the studies of methods for predicting the solar activity in the future, to select relatively better prediction methods and improve the level of solar activity prediction. Meanwhile, the rising rate is obtained by the SSN in 1–24 months of the initial stage of a cycle, for the monthly smoothed SSN series, only at the 31st month after the beginning of a cycle can get smoothed values of 24 months and then to calculate rising rate. However, the rising stage is about 4–6 a, which makes the predicted leading time to be not long enough. The authors are considering the improvement of this method and to do more tests.

Investigation of heliogeoactivity impact on the dynamics of orbital parameters of Earth’s artificial satellites. I

The influence of active processes on the Sun and their response on the dynamics of Earth’s artificial satellites has been investigated. The relationship between the characteristics of solar activity and variations of the periods P of the orbital motion of Earth’s artificial satellites has been found. These variations mainly indicate the variations in the Earth’s atmosphere density caused by solar activity (index F10.7) and geomagnetic activity (ΣKp index). High values of the correlation coefficients between P and F10.7 (–0.77…–0.91) and between P and ΣKp (–0.67…–0.89) exhibit significant effect of solar and geomagnetic activity on the orbital periods of satellites.

The dynamics of the motions of Drosophila melanogaster laboratory populations correlates with the parameters of space weather

Analysis of the motions of Drosophila melanogaster laboratory populations and their relationship to the heliogeophysical parameters (the radio-wave flux at the wavelength of 10.7 cm (F10.7), Wolf numbers (W), the planetary K p-index, an indicator of geomagnetic activity) was carried out. A significant correlation between the changes in the characteristics of solar activity (F10.7, W) and the dynamics of the motions of Drosophila was detected. The association strongly depends on the sexual structure of the Drosophila populations, which follows from the difference in the distributions of this association.

The First ALMA Observation of a Solar Plasmoid Ejection from an X-Ray Bright Point

Abstract Eruptive phenomena such as plasmoid ejections or jets are important features of solar activity and have the potential to improve our understanding of the dynamics of the solar atmosphere. Such ejections are often thought to be signatures of the outflows expected in regions of fast magnetic reconnection. The 304 Å EUV line of helium, formed at around 105 K, is found to be a reliable tracer of such phenomena, but the determination of physical parameters from such observations is not straightforward. We have observed a plasmoid ejection from an X-ray bright point simultaneously at millimeter wavelengths with ALMA, at EUV wavelengths with SDO/AIA, and in soft X-rays with Hinode/XRT. This paper reports the physical parameters of the plasmoid obtained by combining the radio, EUV, and X-ray data. As a result, we conclude that the plasmoid can consist either of (approximately) isothermal ∼105 K plasma that is optically thin at 100 GHz, or a ∼104 K core with a hot envelope. The analysis demonstrates the value of the additional temperature and density constraints that ALMA provides, and future science observations with ALMA will be able to match the spatial resolution of space-borne and other high-resolution telescopes.

Seasonal and solar activity variations ofF3layer and quadruple stratification (StF‐4) near the equatorial region

AbstractThe study of multiple stratification of theFlayer has the initial records in the midtwentieth century. Since then, many studies were focused onF3layer. The diurnal, seasonal, and solar activity variations of theF3layer characteristics have been investigated by several researchers. Recently, investigations on multiple stratifications ofFlayer received an important boost after the quadruple stratification (StF‐4) was observed at Palmas (10.3°S, 48.3°W; dip latitude 6.6°S—near‐equatorial region), Brazil. The present study reports the latest findings related with the seasonal and solar activity characteristics of theF3layer and StF‐4 near the equatorial region during the period from 2002 to 2006. A significant connection between StF‐4 andF3layer has been noticed, since the StF‐4 is always preceded and followed by aF3layer appearance. However, theF3layer and the StF‐4 present different seasonal and solar cycle variations. At a near‐equatorial station Palmas, theF3layer shows the maximum and minimum occurrences during summer and winter seasons, respectively. On the contrary, the StF‐4 presents the maximum and minimum occurrences during winter and summer seasons, respectively. While theF3layer occurrence is not affected by solar cycle, the StF‐4 appearance is instead more frequent during high solar activity.

Coronal holes in the long-term modulation of cosmic rays

Long term cosmic ray variations in the heliosphere in cycles 21–24 are described using the multiparametric model, including characteristics of solar activity. Long-term observations of the cosmic ray intensity, global solar magnetic field characteristics, and characteristics taking into account sporadic solar activity are the initial data for modeling cosmic ray variations. Data on intensity have been obtained from observations at the global ground network of neutron monitors and stratospheric sounding. The characteristics of the regions with an open magnetic field (coronal holes) have been introduced into the model in order to improve the description of long-term variations. The location (latitude), area, and magnetic flux of coronal holes have been used as parameters of this solar activity type manifestation. The modulation has been modeled for the entire studied period (1976–2012) and independently for periods with identical global solar magnetic field directions with regard to the cosmic ray variation delay relative to variations in the solar activity characteristics. It has been shown that the accuracy of long-term variation description improves when coronal hole characteristics are taken into account.

A Study of Heliospheric Modulation and Periodicities of Galactic Cosmic Rays During Cycle 24

Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) are energetic, charged particles coming from outside the solar system. These particles encounter an outward-moving turbulent solar wind with cyclic magnetic-field fluctuations when entering the heliosphere. This causes convection and diffusion in the heliosphere. The GCR counts detected by the ground-based neutron-monitor stations show intensity changes with a fluctuation of ∼ 11 years and are anti-correlated with the sunspot numbers with some time lags. GCRs experience various types of modulation from different solar activity features and are important components of space weather. The previous solar cycle, Cycle 23, has shown anomalous behavior with a prolonged deep minimum, which was characterized by a record-setting high Galactic cosmic-ray flux observed at Earth. Solar Cycle 24 started much later than expected and progressed sluggishly toward its maxima. In this paper, we study the heliospheric modulation and intermediate-term periodicities of GCRs during the ascending phase of Cycle 24. We utilize simultaneous solar, interplanetary plasma, magnetic field, and geomagnetic activity data including the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet, and we study their relation with GCRs. The wavelet power spectrum of GCRs exhibits the presence of a variety of prominent short- and mid-term periodicities including the well-known Rieger and quasi-biennial periodicities. Possible explanations of the observed results are discussed in the light of numerical models.

Identification of photospheric activity features from SOHO/MDI data using the ASAP tool

The variation of solar irradiance is one of the natural forcing mechanisms of the terrestrial climate. Hence, the time-dependent solar irradiance is an important input parameter for climate modelling. The solar surface magnetic field is a powerful proxy for solar irradiance reconstruction. The analyses of data obtained with the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) on board the SOHO mission are therefore useful for the identification of solar surface magnetic features to be used in solar irradiance reconstruction models. However, there is still a need for automated technologies that would enable the identification of solar activity features from large databases. To achieve this we present a series of enhanced segmentation algorithms developed to detect and calculate the area coverages of specific magnetic features from MDI intensitygrams and magnetograms. These algorithms are part of the Automated Solar Activity Prediction (ASAP) tool. The segmentation algorithms allow us to identify the areas on the solar disk covered by magnetic elements inside and outside boundaries of active regions. Depending on their contrast properties, magnetic features within an active region boundary are classified as sunspot umbra and penumbra, or faculae. Outside an active region boundary magnetic elements are identified as network. We present the detailed steps involved in the segmentation process and provide the area coverages of the segmented MDI intensitygrams and magnetograms. The feature segmentation was carried out on daily intensitygrams and magnetograms from April 21, 1996 to April 11, 2011. This offers an exciting opportunity to undertake further investigations that benefit from solar features segmentations, such as solar irradiance reconstruction, which we plan to investigate in the future.

Solar Spectral Irradiance Variability in November/December 2012: Comparison of Observations by Instruments on the International Space Station and Models

Onboard the International Space Station (ISS), two instruments are observing the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) at wavelengths from 16 to 2900 nm. Although the ISS platform orientation generally precludes pointing at the Sun more than 10 - 14 days per month, in November/December 2012 a continuous period of measurements was obtained by implementing an ISS 'bridging' maneuver. This enabled observations to be made of the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) during a complete solar rotation. We present these measurements, which quantify the impact of active regions on SSI, and compare them with data simultaneously gathered from other platforms, and with models of spectral irradiance variability. Our analysis demonstrates that the instruments onboard the ISS have the capability to measure SSI variations consistent with other instruments in space. A comparison among all available SSI measurements during November-December 2012 in absolute units with reconstructions using solar proxies and observed solar activity features is presented and discussed in terms of accuracy.

Heliospheric Modulation of Galactic Cosmic Rays During Solar Cycle 23

Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) encounter an outward-moving solar wind with cyclic magnetic-field fluctuation and turbulence. This causes convection and diffusion in the heliosphere. The GCR counts from the ground-based neutron monitor stations show intensity changes that are anti-correlated with the sunspot numbers with a lag of a few months. GCRs experience various types of modulation from different solar activity features and influence space weather and the terrestrial climate. In this work, we investigate certain aspects of the GCR modulation at low cut-off rigidity (R c≈1 GV) in relation to some solar and geomagnetic indices for the entire solar cycle 23 (1996 – 2008). We separately study the GCR modulation during the ascending phase of cycle 23 including its maximum (1996 – 2002) and the descending phase including its minimum (2003 – 2008). We find that during the descending phase, the GCR recoveries are much faster than those of the solar parameters with negative time-lag. The results are discussed in light of modulation models, including drift effects and previous results.

On the characteristics of solar activity and galactic cosmic ray intensity at the solar cycle maximum and inflection points

The correlation between the characteristics (sunspot area and galactic cosmic ray intensity) at inflection points and at the solar cycle maximum is discussed. Probable characteristics in the forthcoming maximum of cycle 24 are considered.

Specific features of solar cosmic ray fluxes and geomagnetic conditions on December 5–18, 2006

Results of the analysis of specific features of solar activity, dynamics of solar cosmic ray fluxes, and state of the interplanetary medium are presented for the period December 5–18, 2006. The data analysis is based on new model concepts on coronal and interplanetary propagation of solar cosmic rays: partial capture into the magnetic field traps and oscillations at reflections from magnetic mirrors. Some new hypotheses about possible relations of the features of the interplanetary medium with processes in the Earth’s magnetosphere are put forward: the influence of the discrete interplanetary medium on processes in the Earth’s magnetosphere does exist always and, in this sense, it is a fundamental phenomenon; the discreteness of the inter-planetary medium can be one of the causes of geomagnetic substorms.

Asymmetric behavior of different solar activity features over solar cycles 20–23

This paper presents the study of normalized north–south asymmetry, cumulative normalized north–south asymmetry and cumulative difference indices of sunspot areas, solar active prominences (at total, low (⩽40°) and high (⩾50°) latitudes) and H α solar flares from 1964 to 2008 spanning the solar cycles 20–23. Three different statistical methods are used to obtain the asymmetric behavior of different solar activity features. Hemispherical distribution of activity features shows the dominance of activities in northern hemisphere for solar cycle 20 and in southern hemisphere for solar cycles 21–23 excluding solar active prominences at high latitudes. Cumulative difference index of solar activity features in each solar cycle is observed at the maximum of the respective solar cycle suggesting a cyclic behavior of approximately one solar cycle length. Asymmetric behavior of all activity features except solar active prominences at high latitudes hints at the long term periodic trend of eight solar cycles. North–south asymmetries of SAP (H) express the specific behavior of solar activity at high solar latitudes and its behavior in long-time scale is distinctly opposite to those of other activity features. Our results show that in most cases the asymmetry is statistically highly significant meaning thereby that the asymmetries are real features in the N–S distribution of solar activity features.

QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATIONS IN THE SOLAR TACHOCLINE CAUSED BY MAGNETIC ROSSBY WAVE INSTABILITIES

Quasi-biennial oscillations (QBO) are frequently observed in the solar activity indices. However, no clear physical mechanism for the observed variations has been suggested so far. Here we study the stability of magnetic Rossby waves in the solar tachocline using the shallow water magnetohydrodynamic approximation. Our analysis shows that the combination of typical differential rotation and a toroidal magnetic field with a strength > 10^5 G triggers the instability of the m=1 magnetic Rossby wave harmonic with a period of 2 years. This harmonic is antisymmetric with respect to the equator and its period (and growth rate) depends on the differential rotation parameters and the magnetic field strength. The oscillations may cause a periodic magnetic flux emergence at the solar surface and consequently may lead to the observed QBO in the solar activity features. The period of QBO may change throughout the cycle, and from cycle to cycle, due to variations of the mean magnetic field and differential rotation in the tachocline.