Solar Activity Cycle Research Articles

Long-term analysis of NRTK positioning performances over one solar activity cycle from 2013 to 2023

Long-term analysis of NRTK positioning performances over one solar activity cycle from 2013 to 2023

Transition of the Sun to a Regime of High Activity: Implications for the Earth Climate and Role of Atmospheric Chemistry

AbstractIt was recently suggested that the Sun could switch to a high‐activity regime which would lead to a rise of ultraviolet radiation with an amplitude of about four times larger than the amplitude of an average solar activity cycle and a simultaneous drop in total solar irradiance. Here, we applied the SOCOLv3‐MPIOM model with an interacting ocean to simulate the response of chemistry, dynamics, and temperature of Earth's atmosphere to such a change in solar irradiance. We studied the effect of high activity regime on the atmosphere investigating the influence of the chemical and radiative processes on the climate, and chemistry of NOx, HOx, and O3. We find a climate cooling by up to 1K and a substantial increase in stratospheric ozone (up to 14%) and total ozone (up to 8%). To understand the role of the different processes we performed simulations with two sets of forcing accounting separately for the influence on chemical processes and for direct radiation energy balance. Our calculations show that the stratospheric O3 response is almost fully driven by the chemical processes. We also found that the direct radiation processes lead to near‐surface cooling that results in the suppression of the Brewer‐Dobson circulation. This, in turn, leads to the reduction of H2O influx from the low layers of the troposphere and to less intensive transport of ozone from the tropics to the middle latitudes. The surface climate response is dominated by direct radiation influence with only a small contribution from chemical processes.

Predicting the Solar Activity Cycle Based on A LSTM-ARIMA Hybrid Model

Predicting the Solar Activity Cycle Based on A LSTM-ARIMA Hybrid Model

Extraction of Sunspots from Chinese Sunspot Drawings Based on Semisupervised Learning

China has six observing stations, providing over 52,000 handwritten sunspot drawings from 1947–2016. The observing stations are the Purple Mountain Astronomical Observatory (PMO), Yunnan Astronomical Observatory (YNAO), Qingdao Observatory Station (QDOS), Sheshan Observatory Station (SSOS), Beijing Planetarium (BJP), and Nanjing University (NJU). In this paper, we propose a new cotraining semisupervised learning method combining a semantic segmentation method named dynamic mutual training (DMT) boundary-guided semantic segmentation (BGSeg), i.e., DMT_BGSeg, which makes full use of the labeled data from PMO and the unlabeled data from the other five stations to detect and segment sunspot components in all sunspot drawings of the six Chinese stations. The sunspot is detected and segmented. Additionally, each sunspot is split into four types of components: pore, spot, umbra, and hole. The testing results show the mIoU values of PMO, YNAO, BJP, NJU, QDOS and SSOS are 85.29, 72.65, 73.82, 64.28, 62.26, and 60.07, respectively. The results of the comparison also show that DMT_BGSeg is effective in detecting and segmenting sunspots in Chinese sunspot drawings. The numbers and areas of sunspot components are measured separately. All of the detailed data are publicly shared on China-VO, which will advance the comprehensive augmentation of the global historical sunspot database and further the understanding of the long-term solar activity cycle and solar dynamo.

The Forbush decrease observed by the SEVAN particle detector network in the 25th solar activity cycle

The temporal variations of cosmic-ray intensity, measured by ground-based detectors at various latitudes, longitudes, and altitudes, are related to the geophysical and solar phenomena. The latter are interplanetary coronal mass ejections and fast solar wind from coronal holes, which cause interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) abrupt variations near Earth. Interacting with the magnetosphere, they cause worldwide sudden decreases (Forbush decreases, FDs) of intensity followed by gradual recovery. The amplitude of the flux depletion depends on the type and energy of the registered particle, which in turn depends on geographical coordinates and the detector's energy threshold and selective power. SEVAN particle detector network with nodes in Europe and Armenia selects three types of particles that demonstrate coherent depletion and recovery and correspond to different energy galactic protons interacting with disturbed magnetospheric plasmas.On November 3–4, 2021, an interplanetary coronal mass injection (ICME) hit the magnetosphere, sparking a strong G3-class geomagnetic storm and auroras as far south as California and New Mexico. All detectors of the SEVAN network have registered an (FD) of ≈5% depletion in a 1-min time series of count rates. Approaching the maximum solar activity cycle, large variations of the particle flux intensity were registered on February 27, March 23, 2023, and March 24, 2024.In this work, we present measurements of these FDs performed on mountain altitudes on Aragats (Armenia), Lomnicky Stit (Slovakia), Mileshovka (Czechia), and at sea level DESY (Hamburg, Germany). We compared FD measurements made by SEVAN detectors and neutron monitors located on Aragats and Lomnicky Stit and made a correlation analysis of FD registration at different locations.

Science development study for the Atacama Large Aperture Submillimeter Telescope (AtLAST): Solar and stellar observations.

Observations at (sub-)millimeter wavelengths offer a complementary perspective on our Sun and other stars, offering significant insights into both the thermal and magnetic composition of their chromospheres. Despite the fundamental progress in (sub-)millimeter observations of the Sun, some important aspects require diagnostic capabilities that are not offered by existing observatories. In particular, simultaneously observations of the radiation continuum across an extended frequency range would facilitate the mapping of different layers and thus ultimately the 3D structure of the solar atmosphere. Mapping large regions on the Sun or even the whole solar disk at a very high temporal cadence would be crucial for systematically detecting and following the temporal evolution of flares, while synoptic observations, i.e., daily maps, over periods of years would provide an unprecedented view of the solar activity cycle in this wavelength regime. As our Sun is a fundamental reference for studying the atmospheres of active main sequence stars, observing the Sun and other stars with the same instrument would unlock the enormous diagnostic potential for understanding stellar activity and its impact on exoplanets. The Atacama Large Aperture Submillimeter Telescope (AtLAST), a single-dish telescope with 50m aperture proposed to be built in the Atacama desert in Chile, would be able to provide these observational capabilities. Equipped with a large number of detector elements for probing the radiation continuum across a wide frequency range, AtLAST would address a wide range of scientific topics including the thermal structure and heating of the solar chromosphere, flares and prominences, and the solar activity cycle. In this white paper, the key science cases and their technical requirements for AtLAST are discussed.

On the 36-Year Cycle in Solar Activity

On the 36-Year Cycle in Solar Activity

Occurrence of sudden storm commencement in interplanetary space

Sudden storm commencement (SSC) events detected in interplanetary space from 1869 to 2023, are subjectedto wavelet and Lomb-Scargle periodogram analyses to determine the potential frequency of their recurrence. This period includes SSC events from the preceding fourteen solar cycles. Using Lomb-Scargle periodogram analysis, we have identified SSC occurrences independently during the odd and even solar activity cycles. We also used the wavelet analysis approach throughout the positive (A > 0) and negative (A < 0) polarity states of the heliospheric magnetic fields, in addition to solar activity cycles. This study reveals some notable short-term periodic variations in the SSC time series. The findings indicate that SSC occurrences have a conspicuous and important ∼ 44.0-day period. We have also observed solar and extended solar rotation periods in the time series, along with some intermittent variations (e.g., ∼22.0-, ∼19.0-days). The observed periodicities in the SSC time series are discussed and compared with the previously detected periodicities of solar wind and plasma, geomagnetic activity, and cosmic rays’ intensity indicators.

An Improved Prediction of Solar Cycles 25 and 26 Using the Informer Model: Gnevyshev Peaks and North–South Asymmetry

Forecasting the amplitude and timing of the sunspot cycle is highly important for solar physics and space weather applications, but high-precision prediction of solar magnetic activity has remained an outstanding challenge. The Informer model, as the most advanced deep learning technique, is an ideal approach for predicting solar activity cycle. Using the whole-disk sunspot numbers (SSNs) between 1749 and 2023 and the hemispheric SSNs between 1992 and 2023, the amplitudes and timings of Solar Cycles 25 and 26 are predicted by the Informer model. The main results are the following: (1) the activity levels of Solar Cycles 25 and 26 continue being weak-moderate cycles with their strengths stronger than Solar Cycle 24, implying that the long-term solar variability is significantly modulated in length and magnitude by the Gleissberg century cycle; (2) the Gnevyshev peaks of Solar Cycles 25 and 26 are clearly observed with a higher value in the second peak, suggesting that the numbers of the large sunspot groups are greater compared to the small sunspot groups in these two cycles; and (3) during Solar Cycle 25, the activity level in the southern hemisphere is predicted to be stronger than that in the northern one, revealing significant asymmetry and asynchronization between the two hemispheres. Our analysis results show that solar cycle predictions can be made more accurate if performed separately for each hemisphere. Furthermore, Solar Cycles 25 and 26 are likely to be weak-moderate cycles, in agreement with the precursor-based and model-based prediction methods.

Dynamics of the energy spectrum of solar-diural variations in the intensity of cosmic rays in 22–25 cycles of solar activity

Periodic 24-hour variations in the intensity of galactic cosmic rays, continuously observed by ground-based detectors, are called solar diurnal variations. The nature of these variations lies in the existence in the interplanetary medium of an anisotropic spatial distribution of galactic cosmic rays, which arises during the interaction of these particles with the heliosphere. It is believed that the physical factors responsible for the observed anisotropy of galactic cosmic rays are the processes of convection, diffusion and their drift. The combination of these factors determines the main parameters of solar diurnal variations, such as amplitude, phase and energy spectrum. To study the energy spectrum of solar-diurnal variations, we used measurement data from muon telescopes of the Yakutsk Cosmic Ray Spectrograph after A.I. Kuzmin and Nagoya stations (Japan). The research approach is based on the idea of the crossed telescope method, originally designed to take into account the temperature effect. Due to the difference in the receiving characteristics of the crossed northern and southern directions of the above muon telescopes, the intensity variations recorded by them are sensitive to changes in the energy spectrum of solar-diurnal variations. This property was used to assess the dynamics of the energy spectrum of solar-diurnal variations for 22–25 cycles of solar activity. Analysis of the data obtained showed that in the last minimum of solar activity in 2018-2021. An anomalously early phase of solar-diurnal variations was observed. To study this phenomenon, we simulated the ratio and phase difference of a pair of northern and southern crossed directions for both muon telescopes for different types and values of the energy spectrum of solar-diurnal variations. A comparison of model calculations and observational data has made it possible to establish that during periods of minimum solar activity in the positive polarity of the general magnetic field of the Sun, a significant softening of the energy spectrum of solar-diurnal variations is observed. The reasons for the discovered phenomenon are discussed.

Моделирование влияния вариаций солнечной активности на глобальную атмосферную циркуляцию

In this study, we continue a series of works devoted to modeling and studying the sensitivity of global atmospheric dynamic processes to variations in solar emissions during the 11-year solar activity (SA) cycle. We focus on studying the response of meridional atmospheric circulation in the middle atmosphere to changes in thermosphere characteristics with changes in SA. For this purpose, numerical simulations of the general atmospheric circulation were carried out using the nonlinear numerical circulation model of the middle and upper atmosphere MUAM. The main mechanism of the influence of thermospheric disturbances on the underlying layers is assumed to be a change in the conditions of propagation and reflection of planetary waves (PWs) due to changes in SA. Changes in temperature, zonal and meridional wind are shown to localize along waveguides, demonstrating the significant role of PWs in transmitting thermospheric disturbances, caused by changes in SA, to the middle atmosphere. The magnitude of changes in meridional circulation can reach 10 % in the northern stratosphere between SA maxima and minima.

Modeling the impact of solar activity variations on global atmospheric circulation

In this study, we continue a series of works devoted to modeling and studying the sensitivity of global atmospheric dynamic processes to variations in solar emissions during the 11-year solar activity (SA) cycle. We focus on studying the response of meridional atmospheric circulation in the middle atmosphere to changes in thermosphere characteristics with changes in SA. For this purpose, numerical simulations of the general atmospheric circulation were carried out using the nonlinear numerical circulation model of the middle and upper atmosphere MUAM. The main mechanism of the influence of thermospheric disturbances on the underlying layers is assumed to be a change in the conditions of propagation and reflection of planetary waves (PWs) due to changes in SA. Changes in temperature, zonal and meridional wind are shown to localize along waveguides, demonstrating the significant role of PWs in transmitting thermospheric disturbances, caused by changes in SA, to the middle atmosphere. The magnitude of changes in meridional circulation can reach 10 % in the northern stratosphere between SA maxima and minima.

Statistical study of BDS-2/BDS-3 satellite signal quality and positioning accuracy during weak and moderate geomagnetic storms

We statistically study 10 weak to moderate geomagnetic storms that occurred since the 25th solar activity cycle to evaluate the quality of satellite signal and positioning accuracy of Beidou Navigation Satellite System (BDS). The results show that the PAS (Percentage of Affected Satellites) index, which integrates three scenarios: satellite signal loss, satellite signal loss of lock, and carrier phase signal anomaly, appears significant anomaly changes during weak and moderate geomagnetic storms, and its changing trend is closely related to the geomagnetic storm Kp index and Dst index, the correlation coefficient is greater than 0.75. Based on the results of PAS signal quality evaluation, the effect of PAS on the positioning error of Precision Point Positioning (PPP) of BDS-2/BDS-3 systems is analyzed and verified in conjunction with PAS. The results show that there is a strong agreement between the time of PAS anomaly and the time of PPP positioning accuracy anomaly. The positioning error of PPP increases by 9 to 44 times compared to the quiet period. The statistical results indicate that the PAS index is useful for the signal quality evaluation of the Beidou Navigation Satellite System under different space weather conditions.

Exploring the Substructure of the Near-surface Shear Layer of the Sun

The gradient of rotation in the near-surface shear layer (NSSL) of the Sun provides valuable insights into the dynamics associated with the solar activity cycle and the dynamo. Results obtained with global oscillation mode splittings lack resolution near the surface, prompting the use of the local helioseismic ring-diagram method. While the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager ring-analysis pipeline has been used previously for analyzing this layer, default pipeline parameters limit the accuracy of the near-surface gradients. To address these challenges, we fitted the flow parameters to power spectra averaged over one-year periods at each location, followed by additional averaging over 12 yr. We find that the NSSL can be divided into three fairly distinct regions: a deeper, larger region with a small shear, steepening toward the surface; a narrow middle layer with a strong shear, with a gradient approximately 3 times larger; and a layer very close to the surface, where the logarithmic gradient is close to zero but becomes steeper again toward the surface. The middle layer appears to be centered at 3 Mm, but the poor resolution in these layers implies that it is potentially located closer to the surface, around 1.5 Mm deep. While our analysis primarily focused on regions along the central meridian, we also investigated systematic errors at longitudes off the center. The east–west antisymmetric component of the gradient reveals a layer of substantial differences between the east and west longitude of around 1.7 Mm, and the amplitude of the differences increases with the longitude.

The Charged Particle Detection System of the SRD Module onboard the China Space Station

The radiation field environment outside the Earth varies greatly with space location and the cycle of solar activity, and the radiation environment near the space station’s orbit is much more complex than that on the Earth’s surface. Various high-energy cosmic ray particles and secondary particles produced by them and the bulkhead of the space station greatly impact the health of astronauts and the working conditions of instruments. Each aircraft is always equipped with some dedicated radiation monitoring instruments to assess the exposure risk for astronauts, and to analyze the causes of instrument failures. The Space Radiation Detector Module (SRDM) is working in the China Space Station (CSS) to measure the radiation environment inside, including two parts: the Charged Particle Detection System (CPDS) and the Neutron Detection System (NDS). The CPDS, which is the main content of this paper, contains a detector unit, that consists of three silicon detectors a BGO calorimeter, and the corresponding readout electronics unit of the detector unit. Ground test results show that the detection system can detect various charged particles from hydrogen to nitrogen ions with an energy resolution of less than 15%. The actual measurement results for a period in orbit show that the main types of charged particles in the cabin are protons and α particles, with measured energies ranging from 0.8 to 265.2 MeV for protons and from 1.0 to 61.6 MeV/A for α particles(where A is the mass number), and linear energy density (LET) range mainly from 1.0 to 612.4 keV/μm. The radiation environment data measured in CSS can provide an important reference value for the exposure risk, life science experiments, and the status of instruments on board.

WawHelioIonMP: A Semiempirical Tool for the Determination of Latitudinal Variation in the Ionization Rate of Interstellar Hydrogen and the Solar Wind

The latitudinal structure of the solar wind varies during the cycle of solar activity. Analysis of this variation is important for understanding the solar activity and interpretation of observations of heliospheric energetic neutral hydrogen atoms and interstellar neutral (ISN) atoms inside the heliosphere, which yield information on the heliosphere and its interaction with the interstellar medium. Existing methods of retrieving this information from indirect remote-sensing measurements of phenomena, including the heliospheric backscatter glow and interplanetary scintillations of remote radio sources, are challenging to apply in real time. Here, we propose a method WawHelioIonMP of approximate retrieval of latitudinal profiles of the ionization rates of ISN H using a machine-learning-based interpretation of the helioglow. Assuming that we know their history during two past solar cycles and have observations of the helioglow for close-to-circumsolar circles with a radius close to 90°, we derive statistically an algebraic relation between the ionization profiles and lightcurves. With the relation reversed, we are then able to derive the ionization rate profiles based on observed light curves, such as those planned for the GLObal solar Wind Structure (GLOWS) experiment on the forthcoming NASA mission Interstellar Mapping and Acceleration Probe (IMAP). The application of this method is straightforward and rapid because complex simulations are no longer needed. We present the method of retrieval of the profiles of the ionization rates, leaving the discussion of details of the decomposition of the retrieved ionization rate profiles into profiles of the solar wind speed and density to a future paper.

Prediction of the amplitude of solar cycle 25 from the ratio of sunspot number to sunspot-group area, low latitude activity, and 130-year solar cycle

Prediction of the amplitude of solar cycle is important for understanding the mechanism of solar cycle and solar activity influence on space-weather. We analysed the combined data of sunspot groups from Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR) during the period 1874–1976 and Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD) during 1977–2017 and determined the monthly mean, annual mean, and 13-month smoothed monthly mean whole sphere sunspot-group area (WSGA). We also analysed the monthly mean, annual mean, and 13-month smoothed monthly mean version 2 of international sunspot number (SNT) during the period 1874–2017. We fitted the annual mean WSGA and SNT data during each of Solar Cycles 12–24 separately to the linear and nonlinear (parabola) forms. In the cases of Solar Cycles 14, 17, and 24 the nonlinear fits are found better than the linear fits. We find that there exists a secular decreasing trend in the slope of the WSGA–SNT linear relation during Solar Cycles 12–24. A secular decreasing trend is also seen in the coefficient of the first order term of the nonlinear relation. The existence of ≈77-year variation is clearly seen in the ratio of the amplitude to WSGA at the maximum epoch of solar cycle. From the pattern of this long-term variation of the ratio we inferred that Solar Cycle 25 will be larger than both Solar Cycles 24 and 26. Using an our earlier method (now slightly revised), i.e. using high correlations of the amplitude of a solar cycle with the sums of the areas of sunspot groups in 0–10° latitude intervals of the northern hemisphere during 3.75-year interval around the minimum–and the southern hemisphere during 0.4-year interval near the maximum–of the corresponding preceding solar cycle, we predicted 127±26 and 141±19 for the amplitude of Solar Cycle 25, respectively. Based on ≈130-year periodicity found in the cycle-to-cycle variation of the amplitudes of Solar Cycles 12–24 we find the shape of Solar Cycle 25 would be similar to that of Solar Cycle 13 and predicted for Solar Cycle 25 the amplitude 135±8, maximum epoch 2024.21 (March 2024)±6-month, and the following minimum epoch 2032.21 (March 2032)±6-month with SNT≈4.

Tree-ring based summer temperature variability since 1790 CE in the Hindu Kush region of northern Pakistan.

The Hindu Kush high-altitude regions of Pakistan are currently experiencing severe consequences as a result of global warming. In this sense, increasing soil erosion and the quick melting of glaciers are two particularly evident effects. In such a scenario, understanding long-term temperature changes is crucial for making accurate forecasts about how the Hindu Kush region may experience regional temperature changes in the future. In this study, the climate tree-ring width (TRW) analysis designated a positive and significant correlation (r = 0.622, p < 0.001) between the TRW chronology and the June to September (summer) mean maximum temperature (MMT). Using the tree-ring width of Pinus wallichiana A. B. Jackson, we reconstructed summer temperatures in the Hindu Kush region from 1790 CE. Statistical analysis showed that the reconstruction model has explained 38.7% of the climate variance during the instrumental period of 1967 to 2018 CE. Five extremely warm summer periods (≥ 4 years; before the instrumental period 1967-2018 CE) of 1804-1830, 1839-1862, 1876-1879, 1905-1910, 1923-1935 CE, and six cold summer periods of 1790-1803, 1832-1838, 1863-1875, 1880-1904, 1911-1922, and 1936-1945 CE have been observed during the past 229 years. Individually, the year 1856 CE experienced severe warmth (31.85°C), whereas 1794 CE was relatively cooler (29.60°C). The spectral multi-taper method (MTM) shows significant (p < 0.05) cycles, which take place about every 9.3, 5.7, 4.2, and 3.6 years. In particular, the 9.3-year cycle, which closely aligns with the 11-year solar activity cycle, suggests a potential correlation between solar activity and local temperature fluctuations. Moreover, our reconstruction demonstrates a significant degree of consistency when compared to actual climate data and regional temperature reconstruction series, reporting a strong logic of trust in the reliability and accuracy of our findings. This evidence reaffirms that our reconstruction shows significant and dependable regional temperature signals, notably being representative for the Hindu Kush region.

Variations of Heavy Ions in Interplanetary Shock Driven by Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections and Stream Interaction Regions

In the solar wind, the fluctuation of heavy ion abundance serves as a crucial physical metric. This not only mirrors the attributes of the solar wind’s originating solar region but also signifies its influence on Earth’s magnetosphere. Utilizing data from the Advanced Composition Explorer satellite, this investigation scrutinizes heavy ion variations in stream interaction region (SIR)- and interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME)-driven shocks. We further delineate the disparities in heavy ion fluctuations between these two types of interplanetary shocks across diverse solar activity cycles. Our findings reveal that ICME-driven shocks typically manifest elevated shock velocities and magnetic field strengths relative to their SIR-driven counterparts. Additionally, heavy ion abundance ratios, such as C6+/O4+, O7+/O6+, He/O, Si/O, and Fe/O, are consistently higher in ICME-driven shocks than in SIR-driven shocks. During varying solar activity cycles, these ratios surge postarrival of ICME-driven shocks. At solar maximum, these elevated ratios persist, whereas they revert to baseline levels swiftly during solar minimum. For SIR-driven shocks, the alteration in heavy ion abundance ratios is comparatively subdued, yet a noteworthy correlation with the solar activity cycle is evident.

A solar cycle clock for extreme space weather

The variable solar cycle of activity is a long-standing problem in physics. It modulates the overall level of space weather activity at earth, which in turn can have significant societal impact. The Hilbert transform of the sunspot number is used to map the variable length, approximately 11 year Schwabe cycle onto a uniform clock. The clock is used to correlate extreme space weather seen in the aa index, the longest continuous geomagnetic record at earth, with the record of solar active region areas and latitudes since 1874. This shows that a clear switch-off of the most extreme space weather events occurs when >90\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$>90$$\\end{document}% of solar active region areas have moved to within about 15° of the solar equator, from regions of high gradient in solar differential rotation which can power coronal mass ejections, to a region where solar differential rotation is almost constant with latitude. More moderate space weather events which coincide with 27 day solar rotation recurrences in the aa index, consistent with stable, persistent source regions of high speed streams, commence when the centroid of solar active region areas moves to within 15° of the solar equator. This offers a physical explanation for the longstanding identification of a two component cycle of activity in the aa index.