Socio-political Scenarios Research Articles

Tom Clancy ś Debt of Honor: Uncanny Ability to Predict The Future

This paper investigates Tom Clancy's Debt of Honor through the framework of Nicholas Rescher's theory of predication. This philosophical approach examines how language connects concepts with the objects they describe. As Rescher posits, prediction is a crucial mechanism for understanding and organizing our perceptions of the world, enabling effective communication by linking abstract ideas to concrete entities. The objective of this study is to demystify Rescher's theory, presenting it clearly and understandably while highlighting its importance in both theoretical discussions and practical applications. The research begins by outlining the fundamental tenets of Rescher's theory, including how predication operates within everyday language and thought processes. It then applies these principles to the narrative and thematic structures within Debt of Honor, illustrating how the novel's depiction of complex socio-political scenarios can be better understood through the lens of prediction. The study explores the broader implications of Rescher's theory. The paper argues that a deeper understanding of predication can enhance clarity and precision in both philosophical discourse and real-world communication.

Lower fishing effort would benefit fish stocks and fisheries profitability in the Gulf of Lion in the Mediterranean Sea

The increasing pressure on marine resources due to the high demand for fish and fishery products from an increasing population can lead to the overexploitation of fish stocks worldwide. In addition, climate change has already impacted fish populations pushing them towards states never seen before with a risk of irreversible changes. Evaluating the socioeconomic consequences of climate and anthropogenic impacts is challenging due to the large variety of interactions between social, ecological, and economic systems that make future effects difficult to predict. In this study, we develop climate-socioeconomic scenarios for the Gulf of Lion’s most important commercial fisheries using the MEFISTO bioeconomic model. Here, the biomass, catches and profit changes for the main commercial species (anchovy, sardine, hake and red mullet) and three fleets (demersal trawlers, gillnets, purse seiners) are modeled. We project the potential future storylines of fisheries under four different climate-driven and socio-political scenarios considering changes along three components: (i) climate change affecting fish stocks’ productivity through physiological processes, (ii) economic changes impacting fish price and fishing costs and (iii) technological management (fishing effort). Under alternative assumptions of productivity, market and management changes, our results indicate that fishing mortality reductions would mitigate the impacts of climate change and economic volatility over the GoL fisheries. An improvement in the overfished fisheries' management seems to be the main driver of change by 2050, over the direct impact of climate change. The market volatility (fluctuations in fish and fuel prices) will also be key for the future viability of Mediterranean fisheries.

An ever-changing world: Interconnections in the Ancient Near East and the Eastern Mediterranean (ca. 3500-300 BC)

The Ancient Near East and the Eastern Mediterranean were geographical and sociopolitical scenarios with fluent and constant connectivity from the earliest times in history. Prestige goods and raw materials found their way from one side to another through extensive networks even before the emergence of the state in Egypt and Mesopotamia, integrating movements not only of goods but also of people, technologies, cultural practices, gods, languages, and ideas (Wilkinson et al. 2011; Warburton 2020). In this volume, we named them “interconnections” to precisely emphasize the relevance of exchange in the adoption, modification, or re-adaptation of foreign traces. The influence of incoming technologies and the shaping of identities in such a dynamic world, always moving, is also considered. Naturally, many diverse theoretical approaches were proposed over time to explain those interconnections, contributing to completing the never-ending panorama of relationships (e.g. Warburton 2020: 1-21). At the same time, nowadays a comprehensive amount of evidence is usually considered in explaining those interconnections, mainly material remains, textual registers, and iconography.

Urban Morphology, Identity, Heritage, and Reconstruction Processes in Middle East Post-War Scenarios: The Case of Mosul Old City

The theme of architectural reconstruction has gained significant prominence within the discipline of architecture, intersecting with the increasing complexity of contemporary events, especially complex socio-political scenarios including deliberate city destruction, often referred to as urbicide. Preservation strategies that safeguard the memory and values embedded in places have become imperative to protect this urban tangible and intangible heritage. This study explores the application of architectural reconstruction in the post-war context of Mosul (Iraq) dealing mainly with the selection of traces, combining a strategy based half on physical evidence and half on the reconstruction of memory devices, and intertwining them into an operative procedure hopefully supporting urban reconstruction. The study’s results indicate that architectural interventions focused on revitalizing these symbolic spaces play a pivotal role in reconstituting the inhabitants’ habits and sense of community in Mosul. The projects, including the Souq and the Great Mosque and districts, successfully address various challenges, including the harmonious fusion of tradition and modernization, the delicate balance between memory and oblivion, and the careful negotiation between reconstruction and restoration.

The Aegean Sea demersal fishery under four climatic and socio-political futures

The future of the Aegean Sea demersal fishery is projected under four climatic and socio-political scenarios, namely: “World Markets“, “Global Sustainability”, “National Enterprise” and “Local Stewardship”. The scenarios combine two IPCC climatic futures (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) with four socio-political systems that foresee changes in economic, technological as well as management aspects of the fishery corresponding to four contrasting futures. The future projection of a large number of physico-chemical variables per climatic scenario, made available through CERES project (http://ceresproject.eu/), gave the opportunity to model the effects of Climate Change (CC) on the productivity of demersal stocks. The projections foresee an increase in primary productivity in the Aegean Sea waters, which is projected to become mesotrophic from currently oligotrophic, while statistical analysis suggests that mullet stocks might be favored, while the European hake stock is more likely to be in decline. The combined, as well as the individual, effects of the different components of change on the fishery are explored. With respect to management, the results demonstrate the key role of technical interactions in the attempt to achieve sustainable and optimally harvested fisheries. It is found that a minor reduction of effort can achieve sustainability and good yield (PGY) from key stocks. A main source of uncertainty stems from the large number of stocks that remain unassessed. The ongoing tropicalization of the Aegean Sea and the response of these other stocks to CC increases the uncertainty and creates new challenges but also new opportunities for the Aegean Sea demersal fishery.

Unraveling the combined effects of sociopolitical and climate change scenarios for an artisanal small-scale fishery in the Western Mediterranean

Unraveling the combined effects of sociopolitical and climate change scenarios for an artisanal small-scale fishery in the Western Mediterranean

Human–environment interactions during the mid-late Holocene and the Anthropocene – lessons from NW Indian plains and Bengal Delta

Abstract The Indian subcontinent today houses about one-third of the global population and is one of the most vulnerable regions to future climate variability. This region has seen changes in civilizations, kingdoms and more recently political regimes, that were intricately linked to the changing environment over the mid–late Holocene. A comparative analysis of human–environment interaction within different regions at different time scales of the Quaternary is, however, lacking. In this paper we discuss the human–environment interactions taking case studies from two diverse time periods and geographically different regions from the Indian subcontinent. First, we review and analyse the role of environmental change in the evolution of Indus civilization on the northwestern Indian subcontinent during the mid–late Holocene and secondly, we discuss the role of both the anthropogenic activities and environmental change during the Anthropocene in shaping up the Bengal Delta. Overall, during the mid–late Holocene, Indus cultural transformations were driven by natural environmental changes, whereas the anthropogenic activities in the last few centuries have modified the Bengal deltaic landscape, which has intensified the impacts of natural disasters – in both cases a change in socio-political scenarios occurred. Such studies can be used as benchmarks to understand the future response of societies to environmental changes.

Study of Acceptance of Indian Political Cartoons in Facebook Landscape

Indian society changed after digitalization and economical reformation. Currently, the Facebook is the most popular social media in India. The political cartoonist took that platform as an opportunity to share their thoughts and raise socio-political issues through their cartoons. The aim of the paper is to study responses (likingness and affective) to political cartoons in respect to responsiveness towards cartoons, gender, and socio-economic status. The study was conducted among 875 Indians from different parts of India including males and females with various socio-economic backgrounds. The data captured in the form of sentiments (love, sadness, angry and happiness emotions) for each cartoon shared in the Facebook timeline. Then, relevant descriptive statistics were computed using IBM SPSS 20.0 software. Results showed that maximum Facebook users expressed their thoughts about political cartoons through emoticons in terms of like, sad, angry, and happiness. It is found that male user are more likely to be expressive to political cartoons than female user. Mostly user from low and middle socio-economic backgrounds relate themselves with the cartoon scenarios and shown interest than users from higher class of the society. Hence, political socio-political scenarios can be communicated effectively using political cartoons in Facebook as the people of India are relating themselves with various cartoons.

Future Socio-political Scenarios for Aquatic Resources in Europe: An Operationalized Framework for Marine Fisheries Projections

Climate change is anticipated to have long-term and widespread direct consequences for the European marine ecosystems and subsequently for the European fishery sector. Additionally, many socio-economic and political factors linked to climate change scenarios will impact the future development of fishing industries. Robust projection modeling of bioeconomic consequences of climate change on the European fishing sector must identify all these factors and their potential future interaction. In this study, four socio-political scenarios developed in the EU project CERES (Climate change and European aquatic RESources) were operationalized and used in model projections of marine wild capture fisheries. Four CERES scenarios (“World Markets,” “National Enterprise,” “Global Sustainability” and “Local Stewardship”) were based on the IPCC framework of Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). For each of these scenarios, a set of quantitative outputs was generated to allow projections of bio-economic impacts to mid-century (2050) on wild-capture fisheries operating in different European regions. Specifically, projections accounted for future changes in fisheries management targets, access regulations, international agreements, fish and fuel prices, technological developments and marine spatial planning. This study thoroughly describes the elements of these four fisheries scenarios and demonstrates an example of the “regionalization” of these scenarios by summarizing how they were applied to the North Sea flatfish fishery. Bioeconomic projections highlight the importance of future developments in fuel and fish price development to the viability of that and other fisheries. Adapting these scenarios for use in other models and regions outside the 10 European fisheries examined in CERES would be highly beneficial by allowing direct comparison of the bioeconomic risks and opportunities posed by climate change.

Future Socio-Political Scenarios for Aquatic Resources in Europe: A Common Framework Based on Shared-Socioeconomic-Pathways (SSPs)

It has proven extremely challenging for researchers to predict with confidence how human societies might develop in the future, yet managers and industries need to make projections in order to test adaptation and mitigation strategies designed to build resilience to long-term shocks. This paper introduces exploratory scenarios with a particular focus on European aquaculture and fisheries and describes how these scenarios were designed. Short-, medium- and long-term developments in socio-political drivers may be just as important in determining profits, revenues and prospects in the aquaculture and fisheries industries as physical drivers such as long-term climate change. Four socio-political-economic futures were developed, based partly on the IPCC SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) framework and partly on the newer system of Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). ‘Off the shelf’ narrative material as well as quantitative outputs were ‘borrowed’ from earlier frameworks but supplemented with material generated through in-depth stakeholder workshops involving industry and policy makers. Workshop participants were tasked to outline how they thought their sector might look under the four future worlds and, in particular, to make use of the PESTEL conceptual framework (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, and Legal) as an aide memoire to help define the scope of each scenario. This work was carried out under the auspices of the EU Horizon 2020 project CERES (Climate change and European aquatic RESources), and for each ‘CERES scenario’ (World Markets, National Enterprise, Global Sustainability and Local Stewardship), additional quantitative outputs were generated, including projections of future fuel and fish prices, using the MAGNET (Modular Applied GeNeral Equilibrium Tool) modeling framework. In developing and applying the CERES scenarios, we have demonstrated that the basic architecture is sufficiently flexible to be used at a wide diversity of scales. We urge the climate science community to adopt a similar scenarios framework, based around SSPs, to facilitate global cross-comparison of fisheries and aquaculture model outputs more broadly and to harmonize communication regarding potential future bioeconomic impacts of climate change.

Dining Tables Divided by a Border: The Effect of Socio-Political Scenarios on Local Ecological Knowledge of Romanians Living in Ukrainian and Romanian Bukovina.

Local cuisine is an important reservoir of local ecological knowledge shaped by a variety of socio-cultural, economic, and ecological factors. The aim was to document and compare the current use of wild and semi-cultivated plant food taxa by Romanians living in Romania and Ukraine. These two groups share similar ecological conditions and historically belonged to the same province, but were divided in the 1940s by the creation of a state border. We conducted 60 semi-structured interviews with rural residents. The contemporary use of 46 taxa (plus 5 cultivated taxa with uncommon uses), belonging to 20 families, for food consumption were recorded. Romanians in Romanian Bukovina used 27 taxa belonging to 15 families, while in Ukraine they used 40 taxa belonging to 18 families. Jams, sarmale, homemade beer, and the homemade alcoholic drink “socată” are used more by Romanians in Southern Bukovina, while tea, soups, and birch sap are used more in Northern Bukovina. We discuss the strong influence of socio-political scenarios on the use of wild food plants. Cross-ethnic marriages, as well as markets and women’s networks, i.e., “neighbors do so”, may have had a great impact on changes in wild food use. In addition, rapid changes in lifestyle (open work market and social migration) are other explanations for the abandonment of wild edible plants.

Future Socio-Political Scenarios for Aquatic Resources in Europe: An Operationalized Framework for Aquaculture Projections

Climate-driven changes in aquatic environments have already started to affect the European aquaculture sector’s most commercially important finfish and shellfish species. In addition to changes in water quality and temperature that can directly influence fish production by altering health status, growth performance and/or feed conversion, the aquaculture sector also faces an uncertain future in terms of production costs and returns. For example, the availability of key ingredients for fish feeds (proteins, omega-3 fatty acids) will not only depend on future changes in climate, but also on social and political factors, thereby influencing feed costs. The future cost of energy, another main expenditure for fish farms, will also depend on various factors. Finally, marketing options and subsidies will have major impacts on future aquaculture profitability. Based on the framework of four socio-political scenarios developed in the EU H2020 project climate change and European aquatic resources (CERES), we defined how these key factors for the aquaculture sector could change in the future. We then apply these scenarios to make projections of how climate change and societal and economic trends influence the mid-century (2050) profitability of European aquaculture. We used an established benchmarking approach to contrast present-day and future economic performance of “typical farms” in selected European production regions under each of the scenarios termed “World Markets,” “National Enterprise,” “Global Sustainability” and “Local Stewardship.” These scenarios were based partly on the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios framework and their representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and the widely used shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). Together, these scenarios contrast local versus international emphasis on decision making, more versus less severe environmental change, and different consequences for producers due to future commodity prices, cash returns, and costs. The mid-century profitability of the typical farms was most sensitive to the future development of feed costs, price trends of returns, and marketing options as opposed to the direct effect of climate-driven changes in the environment. These results can inform adaptation planning by the European aquaculture sector. Moreover, applying consistent scenarios including societal and economic dimensions, facilitates regional to global comparisons of adaptation advice both within and across Blue Growth sectors.

Knowledge transmission patterns at the border: ethnobotany of Hutsuls living in the Carpathian Mountains of Bukovina (SW Ukraine and NE Romania)

BackgroundCross-border research is a novel and important tool for detecting variability of ecological knowledge. This is especially evident in regions recently divided and annexed to different political regimes. Therefore, we conducted a study among Hutsuls, a cultural and linguistic minority group living in Northern and Southern Bukovina (Ukraine and Romania, respectively). Indeed, in the 1940s, a border was created: Northern Bukovina was annexed by the USSR while Southern Bukovina remained part of the Kingdom of Romania. In this research, we aim to document uses of plants for food and medicinal preparations, discussing the different dynamics of Local Ecological Knowledge (LEK) transmission among Hutsuls living in Ukraine and Romania.MethodsField research was conducted using convenience and snowball sampling techniques to recruit 31 Hutsuls in Ukraine and 30 in Romania for participation in semi-structured interviews regarding the use of plants for medicinal and food preparation purposes and the sources of such knowledge.ResultsThe interviews revealed that, despite a common cultural and linguistic background, ethnobotanical knowledge transmission occurs in different ways on each side of the border. Family is a primary source of ethnobotanical knowledge transmission on both sides of the border; however, in Romania, knowledge from other sources is very limited, whereas in Ukraine interviewees reported several other sources including books, magazines, newspapers, the Internet and television. This is especially evident when analysing the wild plants used for medicinal purposes as we found 53 taxa that were common to both, 47 used only in Ukraine and 11 used only in Romania. While Romanian Hutsuls used almost exclusively locally available plants, Ukrainian Hutsuls often reported novel plants such as Aloe vera, Aronia melanocarpa and Elaeagnus rhamnoides. Knowledge related to these plants was transferred by sources of knowledge other than oral transmission among members of the same family. Therefore, this may imply hybridization of the local body of knowledge with foreign elements originating in the Soviet context which has enriched the corpus of ethnobotanical knowledge held by Ukrainian Hutsuls.ConclusionsWhile ethnobotanical knowledge among Romanian Hutsuls is mainly traditional and vertically transmitted, among Ukrainian Hutsuls there is a considerable proportion of LEK that is transmitted from other (written and visual) sources of knowledge. This cross-border research reveals that despite a common cultural background, socio-political scenarios have impacted Hutsul ethnobotanical knowledge and its transmission patterns.

Changes and drivers in Spanish landscapes at the Rural-Urban Interface between 1956 and 2018

This paper presents unique comprehensive quantitative measures of the changes in Spanish rural landscapes, specifically in relation to the Rural-Urban Interface (RUI). Our objective was to investigate the urbanisation process in rural areas of Spain, thus the expansion of the RUI in an environmentally complex study area (it includes arid regions, continental areas or high mountains). The data were produced by the Spanish Rural Landscapes Monitoring System project (SISPARES), which has carried out five separate surveys for 1956, 1984, 1998, 2008 and 2018. SISPARES data provide RUI quantification by identifying urban patches, using aerial images, in a permanent network of 206 stratified random landscape sampling units (4 × 4 km each) deliberately located in rural areas. The cost-effective and spatio-temporal SISPARES approach enables the production of landscape geographical models at each survey date and the modelling of its evolution over each time period. We hypothesised that the RUI expansion did not follow a homogeneous spatio-temporal pattern, and therefore neither did the drivers responsible for it. Building on SISPARES data, we evaluated through CART analyses the relationship of RUI expansion with relevant environmental and anthropogenic driving factors, such as climate, bedrock, landscape composition and human population density. The historical narrative perspective was also used to aid discussion of the results. Historically, Spain contained few areas of RUI, but major changes were determined in the initial study period (1956–1984), which conformed a seminal geographic pattern for subsequent RUI increment. In contrast, the RUI expansion did not increase greatly during the following periods, between 1984 and 2018. The RUI expansion has been primarily driven by anthropogenic factors, constrained by the environmental characteristics of Spain. The expansion pattern is likely to has shifted from a national scale in the 1950s, to a continental scale at later dates as the result of the changes in socio-political scenarios.

Estudio Comparativo de los Contextos Sociopolíticos de los Movimientos Estudiantiles en Brasil y Venezuela

This research seeks to compare the socio-political scenarios in which the university student movements of Brazil and Venezuela have developed. A historical summary of the political development of both countries during the twentieth and twenty-first centuries will be made, comparing their democratic and dictatorial cycles chronologically, then a brief summary of the most important moments and actions of the university student movements of both countries and their leaderships will be presented, to finally establish differences and similarities between the two movements. The category chosen for the study is part of the approach of Maria da Gloria Gohn for the study of social movements, a conceptual scheme that allows adequate delimitation and approximation to the movements of interest.

Appraisal of Urban Sprawl in Mega Cities of Punjab Pakistan in context of Socio-Political Issues using RS/GIS.

Urbanization has become a hot issue in context of environmental and socio-political scenarios which is addressed at every forum internationally. The mega cities are considered the main origin of socio-economic development which caused to emerge a number of issues like biodiversity, environmental degradation, resource consumption, implementation of law and order and provision of basic facilities to the general public. The area under investigation consists of Lahore, Gujranwala and Sheikhupura. The study site was bounded by 73-75 E longitudes and 31-33 N latitudes. We used Landsat satellite data to map Spatio-temporal variations in urban sprawl from 1990 to 2019 with a temporal window of 15 years. The Landsat data is free, highly reliable and considered as primary source. The classification results show that the total area of study site was site was 29355 km2 including 21933km2 were green index 4595 km2 was under human settlements and 2827 km2 was the waterbody in 1990. The classification of Landsat image of the year 2005 describes that area of human settlements was increased to 9366 km2, the volume of water body was reduced to 2111km2 and the vegetation was also degraded to 17878km2. Again, the urban area was computed using satellite imagery for the year 2019 which was 16105km2 in 2019. Kappa stat proved the accuracy of supervised classification what was around 87%. Remotely sensed datasets proved the reliability of Landsat satellite images for estimation of urban sprawl during last three decades.

Appraisal of Urban Sprawl in Mega Cities of Punjab Pakistan in context of Socio-Political Issues using RS/GIS

Urbanization has become a hot issue in context of environmental and socio-political scenarios which is addressed at every forum internationally. The mega cities are considered the main origin of socio-economic development which caused to emerge a number of issues like biodiversity, environmental degradation, resource consumption, implementation of law and order and provision of basic facilities to the general public. The area under investigation consists of Lahore, Gujranwala and Sheikhupura. The study site was bounded by 73-75 E longitudes and 31-33 N latitudes. We used Landsat satellite data to map Spatio-temporal variations in urban sprawl from 1990 to 2019 with a temporal window of 15 years. The Landsat data is free, highly reliable and considered as primary source. The classification results show that the total area of study site was site was 29355 km2 including 21933km2 were green index 4595 km2 was under human settlements and 2827 km2 was the waterbody in 1990. The classification of Landsat image of the year 2005 describes that area of human settlements was increased to 9366 km2, the volume of water body was reduced to 2111km2 and the vegetation was also degraded to 17878km2. Again, the urban area was computed using satellite imagery for the year 2019 which was 16105km2 in 2019. Kappa stat proved the accuracy of supervised classification what was around 87%. Remotely sensed datasets proved the reliability of Landsat satellite images for estimation of urban sprawl during last three decades.

Beyond Appetite; Food Inclusion in Socio-Political Contexts

From being the basic sustenance of life food has become one of the most important cultural markers in the history and the evolution of human civilization. Even though food, its preparation, its producers and its evolution has happened right alongside human history and development, the study of food as a cultural marker is not a very old or tired discipline. In fact food discourses are a relatively modern branch of study. In this paper I have tried to trace the various influences and collusions of food and food myths that have become deeply entrenched into various lifestyles throughout history till this very day, only changing patterns and interpretations. The paper highlights the corporeal influences of food associations on social and political movements; food has a much deeper and infinitely more powerful grip on our socio-political scenarios than appears on the surface.

Longevity challenges and leadership interventions: Strategy journeys of two Indian banks

This article studies the strategic journeys of two Indian banks in evolving socio-political and economic environments, spread across eight decades. It provides a holistic view of longevity challenges by exploring interdependencies between a firm’s internal dynamics, external environment, and its leaders. This article covers the growth of Canara Bank and Syndicate Bank in distinct phases of unrestricted, regulated, and centrally planned economic environment, and in changing socio-political scenarios. It uses within-case and across-case analysis, contextualised in these conditions, to provide rich insights about measures adopted by firms for their long-term survival and sustenance.

Slipping Off the Edge: How and why Democratic Regimes Fall into Excess in their Fight against Terrorism

Democratic regimes’ resorting to excessive force when fighting against terrorists is chrestomathically defined as “deviations” or “mistakes”. However, the frequency with which such “deviations” and “mistakes” take place and regular repetition of several scenarios give us the right to speak not so much about random dysfunctions as about standard political situations in whose framework, contrary to assertions of democracies’ immanent softness and moderation in administering violence even to their avowed enemies, democratic regimes with high probability can apply excessive force to their armed antagonists. This article wants to probe deeper into the question of the causes of such behaviour of democratic governments and to outline most probable sociopolitical scenarios of these governments’ falling into excess while combating terrorists.