Future Socio-Political Scenarios for Aquatic Resources in Europe: An Operationalized Framework for Aquaculture Projections

Cornelia M Kreiss,Myron A Peck,Sandra Rybicki,Giulia Micallef,John K Pinnegar,Alhambra M Cubillo,Eleni Papathanasopoulou,Andrzej Tabeau,Katell G Hamon

doi:10.3389/fmars.2020.568159

Abstract

Climate-driven changes in aquatic environments have already started to affect the European aquaculture sector’s most commercially important finfish and shellfish species. In addition to changes in water quality and temperature that can directly influence fish production by altering health status, growth performance and/or feed conversion, the aquaculture sector also faces an uncertain future in terms of production costs and returns. For example, the availability of key ingredients for fish feeds (proteins, omega-3 fatty acids) will not only depend on future changes in climate, but also on social and political factors, thereby influencing feed costs. The future cost of energy, another main expenditure for fish farms, will also depend on various factors. Finally, marketing options and subsidies will have major impacts on future aquaculture profitability. Based on the framework of four socio-political scenarios developed in the EU H2020 project climate change and European aquatic resources (CERES), we defined how these key factors for the aquaculture sector could change in the future. We then apply these scenarios to make projections of how climate change and societal and economic trends influence the mid-century (2050) profitability of European aquaculture. We used an established benchmarking approach to contrast present-day and future economic performance of “typical farms” in selected European production regions under each of the scenarios termed “World Markets,” “National Enterprise,” “Global Sustainability” and “Local Stewardship.” These scenarios were based partly on the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios framework and their representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and the widely used shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). Together, these scenarios contrast local versus international emphasis on decision making, more versus less severe environmental change, and different consequences for producers due to future commodity prices, cash returns, and costs. The mid-century profitability of the typical farms was most sensitive to the future development of feed costs, price trends of returns, and marketing options as opposed to the direct effect of climate-driven changes in the environment. These results can inform adaptation planning by the European aquaculture sector. Moreover, applying consistent scenarios including societal and economic dimensions, facilitates regional to global comparisons of adaptation advice both within and across Blue Growth sectors.

Highlights

The impacts of climate change threaten future global food production including seafood production
The present study provides results for two typical farms as case studies: Atlantic salmon grown in Norwegian farms and carp grown in German farms
The National Enterprise scenario generates the highest prices for fishmeal at 3,030 U.S Dollar (USD) per ton and fish oil at 2,551 USD per ton in 2050 followed by the Local Stewardship scenario

Summary

Introduction

The impacts of climate change threaten future global food production including seafood production. While effects of climate change on fish resources have already been observed (e.g., Free et al, 2019), more markedly consequences on fish production are expected in the future. The impacts of climate change on fish stocks and their consequences for wild-capture fisheries have been investigated both globally and for specific, regional fisheries (Allison et al, 2009; Sumaila et al, 2011; Dey et al, 2015). Anthropogenic-induced warming of aquatic habitats (marine and freshwater) as well as altered precipitation patterns are expected to have direct and indirect implications for aquaculture such as altering health status, growth performance, and/or feed conversion efficiency of farmed fish (Reid et al, 2019). The potential economic consequences of these physical changes in marine and freshwater systems range from increases in the costs of investments (e.g., new equipment, increased insurance coverage, amount and type of feed, treatments against disease) to reduced marketable volumes and lower returns

Results

Discussion

Conclusion