Transitional Societies Research Articles

Navigating Uncertainty: Rebel Risk Management Strategies during War-to-Peace Transitions

This article explores the strategic decision making of armed groups during war-to-peace transitions—critical time frames during which militant leaders must reconcile their commitment to armed survival with the imperative of postwar civilian conversion. We specify the internal organizational risks rebel groups confront, as well as the menu of strategies from which they select, in navigating the uncertainty inherent in these perilous periods. Our approach broadens the analysis of war-to-peace transitions, offering new insights into the question of why rebels sometimes successfully integrate into postconflict politics, economies, and society, while at other times they forgo participation in the postconflict state. It represents the first step in a wider research program—one that promises to open a number of new directions in the study of insurgent organizations, transitional societies, and postwar outcomes.

An empirical analysis of worldwide impunity

Our research investigates the relationship between economic and social development indicators and the prevalence of impunity within a country. As countries develop, their institutions tend to function more efficiently and impartially, resulting in less impunity as crimes and violations are more efficiently investigated and prosecuted. We describe a country’s level of economic and social development along seven dimensions and use such a description in a beta regression analysis to predict the level of impunity in 119 countries. We estimate the elasticities of impunity with respect to the variables representing the different dimensions of economic and social progress. We present plots with the estimated elasticity curves for scenarios indicative of less and more socially and economically developed societies and also for the scenario indicative of societies in transition between the two groups. We also identify the countries with the best and worst performance in terms of their levels of impunity in relation to the levels of the conditioning variables. It is shown that Nordic countries exhibit lower impunity than expected based on their economic and social development factors. Conversely, the United States displays a significantly higher level of impunity than expected from its development indicators.

Методология исследования террористической деятельности. Часть 2: познавательные инструменты

Introduction. The article is a logical continuation of the publication “Terrorism Research Methodology. Part 1: Research Fundamentals”. The article is devoted to the description of specific methodological tools of terrorist activity research. On account of the complexity of terrorist activity, the increasing complexity in the dynamics of social development, the diversity of types and forms of terrorism in modern transitional society, it is necessary to apply effective approaches to research. Methods. The methodological basis of the research was formed by the fundamental bases and postulates of philosophical methodology: universal categories, principles and regularities of dialectical and activity approaches, general scientific methodology of system approach, as well as a set of general logical methods of cognition. Results. The author substantiates that the dialectical method makes it possible to study the contradictory nature of terrorism, manifested in the dynamics of terrorist activity in the context of socio-historical development. The understanding of the complexity, diversity of types and forms, technological nature of terrorist activity as a modern socio-legal phenomenon, its place and role in the dynamics of social development of modern transitional society, as well as the need for systemic counteraction to it determines the requirement for applying a systemic approach. The use of the methodology of the interval approach provides a comprehensive study of the terrorist activity and its manifestations in various aspects and dimensions, the synthesis of knowledge of each of them helps to obtain an interval model of terrorist activity. Application of the activity approach reveals terrorist activity as criminal behaviour implemented on a systematic basis, including precriminal and post-criminal actions from a standpoint of committing a terrorist act.

History, Memory, Landscape, and Patriarchal Ideology in the Novels of Easterine Kire: A Comparative Study of 'A Respectable Woman' and 'A Terrible Matriarchy

This comparative study delves into the literary works of Easterine Kire, a prominent Naga author, to explore the intricate interplay of history, memory, landscape, and patriarchal ideology in her novels 'A Respectable Woman' and 'A Terrible Matriarchy.' Set against the backdrop of Nagaland, India, these novels provide a nuanced understanding of the socio-cultural dynamics and transformations that have shaped the Naga society. Memory emerges as a central theme, as the study examines how characters in both novels grapple with personal and collective memories, reflecting the broader collective memory of the Naga people. The landscape, both natural and urban, serves as a powerful symbol in Kire's works. Furthermore, the research investigates the presence of patriarchal ideology in Naga society, analyzing how it influences gender roles and societal expectations. It highlights instances of resistance and empowerment, particularly among female characters, illustrating their agency in challenging oppressive norms. Through a comparative approach, this study uncovers commonalities and differences in how history, memory, landscape, and patriarchal ideology are portrayed in 'A Respectable Woman' and 'A Terrible Matriarchy.' It sheds light on the evolution of Easterine Kire's perspective on these themes and their implications for understanding Naga identity and postcolonial literature. In conclusion, this research contributes to the broader discourse on postcolonial literature, gender dynamics, and cultural preservation. It underscores the significance of literature in capturing the multifaceted facets of Naga history and identity, offering valuable insights into the complexities of a society in transition.

Challenges and Triumphs of Democratisation in Mongolia

The major socio-political change in Mongolia was the change of political system from one-party socialist to multi-party democracy in 1990s. The political liberalisation of ideas- the change of economic system, inauguration of the new constitution in 1992 and the first ever free parliamentary elections are the key features of the Mongolia’s Democratic revolution. The importance of researching democratic consolidation in Mongolia can be underscored in several keyways. Firstly, Mongolia serves as an exemplary case of a nation that has transitioned positively towards democracy in a global landscape where democracy often remains an outlier rather than the norm. From the events that Mongolia had to overcome and the knowledge that was gained, there is much to learn on how democratisation processes could be maintained in transitional societies. Qualitative research approach is fitting for this study since it enables the researcher to gain an insight into subjective experiences as well as perceptions of those who are either involved in or affected by a democratic transition in Mongolia. Findings of this research highlights Mongolia's democratisation process both possibilities as well as difficulties involved. Mongolia has done fairly well in terms of institutionalising democracy, but numerous challenges are still persistent which require continuous attention and concerted efforts being made towards addressing them. By introducing strategic reforms, endorsing comprehensive development, fostering transparency culture and nurturing a sense of accountability within state institutions Mongolia can reinforce further consolidation of its democratic gains.

Analysing the prospects of grid-connected green hydrogen production in predominantly fossil-based countries – A case study of South Africa

Importing substantial amount of green hydrogen from countries like South Africa, which have abundant solar and wind potentials to replace fossil fuels, has attracted interest in developed regions. This study analyses South African strategies for improving and decarbonizing the power sector while also producing hydrogen for export. These strategies include the Integrated Resource Plan, the Transmission Development Plan, Just Energy Transition and Hydrogen Society Roadmap for grid connected hydrogen production in 2030. Results based on an hourly resolution optimisation in Plexos indicate that annual grid-connected hydrogen production of 500 kt can lead to a 20–25% increase in the cost of electricity in scenarios with lower renewable energy penetration due to South African emission constraints by 2030. While the price of electricity is still in acceptable range, and the price of hydrogen can be competitive on the international market (2–3 USD/kgH2 for production), the emission factor of this hydrogen is higher than the one of grey hydrogen, ranging from 13 to 24 kgCO2/kgh2. When attempting to reach emission factors based on EU directives, the three policy roadmaps become unfeasible and free capacity expansion results in significant sixteen-fold increase of wind and seven-fold increase in solar installations compared to 2023 levels by 2030 in South Africa.

Love and duty (1931): Chinese melodrama and the “contradictions of modernity”

In 1930s Shanghai Love and Duty (Bu Wancang, Lianhua Co., 1931) resonated with Chinese viewers, launching the career of actress Ruan Lingyu. Today, in contemporary film venue screenings, this epic continues to move international viewers. Here I ask how this silent picture has effected its profound affective alignments as it crosses cultures and periods of time. Approaching Love and Duty as moving picture melodrama engages the critical tradition of film melodrama theory such as to see formal convention melded with the affective charge of Chinese society in tumultuous transition. Melodrama, with its revolutionary associations, meets the historical conditions of Chinese society undergoing massive upheaval at the time of the film’s release, coincident with the New Culture Movement in the years following the 1911 Republican Revolution. The politics informing the Neo-Marxist European tradition of mass culture analysis meets the leftist political legacy associated with Shanghai’s emergent film industry.

Journalistic Roles and Political Parallelism in a Transitional Society: The Case of Ethiopia

ABSTRACT The article is an assessment of journalistic role performance and political parallelism in an African media system, specifically Ethiopia. Transitional countries such as Ethiopia are often associated with high levels of political parallelism in the media landscape. However, the assumption tends to be drawn on the basis of ownership only, while the degree to which political parallelism transpires in journalistic role performance is rarely subject to systematic study. The article takes up the challenge by scrutinizing ten outlets representative of the private and state media sector in Ethiopia (print, radio, television and online). A total of 1200 stories were coded. Ownership appeared as a strong predictor of journalistic role performance. Among six pre-defined roles, four roles were predominant in the state media: interventionist, loyal-facilitator, service and civic roles. The watchdog and entertainment roles, on the other hand, dominated in the private media. A more nuanced analysis of the private media, however, found significant differences in role orientation between different media institutions. The differences are explained by media–political affiliations and changes in the country since 2018. The article argues that systematic analysis of media content can be a sophisticated method to study political parallelism in a country’s media system.

An Identification Potential of Legal Values in a Transitive Society

The article examines the role of legal values in the social identification of citizens in a transitive society. Based on the analysis of the value foundations of legislation and its role in the construction of social identification, a conclusion is made about the primacy of the axiological level of legal reality over ontological ones in a transitive society. The constitutional identification of a person in these conditions is determined not by belonging to a certain nation and the implementation of the rules developed by it, but by positioning identification with the community on value grounds. Often, such identification is not so much an identification as an imitation, since it involves only articulating compliance with the rules, and not following them. Based on this, identification in a transitive society is situational and fragmented. In these conditions, the role of legislation in social identification is changing. It becomes a tool that the addressee of communication uses to broadcast to the addressee a system of values that ensure not only the identification of citizens, but also lawful behavior. At the same time, legislation, due to its instrumental features, is able to overcome transitivity and bring society to stable development and functioning.

University students’ accounts of police use of force: implications for trust in the police

ABSTRACT This empirical research explores the effect of police use of excessive force on university students’ trust in the police. Although the use of force by the police has continued to resonate in academic discourse, particularly from developed Western societies, the challenge is that there is a dearth of empirical research that precisely measures police use of excessive force among university students and how it shapes their trust in the police. The few existing studies were drawn from the general population survey, and they showed that the police in most African transitional societies tend to misuse their powers and are typically unaccountable to the public. From a survey data of participants delineated to a large public university in South Africa, this study specifically assessed the effect of direct experience of police abuse, vicarious experience of police abuse, experience of police corruption, and predatory policing on university students’ trust in the police. Findings confirmed, among others, that police use of excessive force (direct and vicarious experience of police abuse and predatory policing) significantly negatively affects students’ trust in the South African Police Service (SAPS). The implications of the findings for effective policing in the country are discussed.

Ageing, consumption and middle-classness: implications for intergenerational relations in India

In this piece, I use consumption as a lens to argue how urban, middle-class Indians in their middle and later ages are emerging as a distinctive consumer society while rewriting the scripts of growing old in India. This cultural shift is happening at a time when novel modes of ageing are imagined against the backdrop of transnational family arrangements, market-based care and a quest for vitality and autonomy among older Indians, altering the cultural continuities of intergenerational relationships. I show how consumption as a cultural force both expands the expressive capabilities of older persons but, at the same time, imposes disciplinary discourses around the family and social relationships. Overall, I critically reflect on what the ‘downward blurring’ of the ageing self does to the contemporary frameworks of intergenerational relationships in India. I conclude by discussing both the possibility and the (cultural) limit of theories developed in the industrialised West to capture the shifting realities of transitional societies.

News Innovation Under Rapid Political Change: Influence of State-Society Relations, Organizational Culture, and Critical Events

ABSTRACT Extant discussions of news media innovation have largely focused on the impact of media technologies, market forces, and audience reception. This article examines how political dynamics in transitional societies shape news media innovation. It argues that, in such contexts, news media innovation can be understood as a contingent outcome driven by changing state-society relations, mediated by organizational factors, and punctuated by critical political events. The empirical analysis focuses on Hong Kong between the year 2012 and 2022. Based on in-depth interviews with 30 journalists from online and mainstream media organizations, this article illustrates how increasing pressure on press freedom and the growth of political contention inadvertently fed into the growth of online media, though the degree of innovation exhibited by specific outlets was influenced by organizational culture. Significant political events reconfigured media innovation by bringing about unexpected market support and major shifts in the state’s media control strategies. General theoretical implications are discussed.

REALISM AND COMPOSITIONAL REPRESENTATION OF REALITY : AN ANALYSIS OF THE MANIPURI DOCUMENTARY FILM “FRIED FISH CHICKEN SOUP AND A PREMIERE SHOW”

The debate around realism in documentary cinema has evolved significantly over the years reflecting broader shift in filmmaking techniques, compositional forms, audience expectation, cultural and political contexts. The realms of realism and compositional documentary have been in a constant state of flux, each genre pushing the boundaries of what is considered truth, authenticity, and artistic expression thereby blurring the lines between reality and fiction, and challenging the traditional notions of documentary filmmaking. Several Manipuri documentary films have made endeavors of recreating the reality through their representation on cinematic canvas. Depicting Manipur’s cinematic journey and its socio-political context in a compositional form, the documentary film “Fried Fish, Chicken Soup, and a Premier Show” (2012) relies heavily on editing with found footage and presents an even greater challenge with the inclusion of historical narratives. It intricately combines observational account of a film crew at work during the filming of the Manaobi MM’s Manipuri feature film “21st Century Gee Kunti” (2010) with intertitles, archival footage etc. to depict the history of Manipur. This paper explores the realism and compositional representation of reality in the film which skillfully blends diverse elements to document the trend of change and transformation within the cinematic landscape and the lived reality of Manipuri society in transition.

Generation in the Dimension of Growing Responsibility

Purpose. The article is devoted to the study of the phenomenon of generation, which is a necessary condition for the birth of the modern open society, taking into account the risks that accompany this process. Theoretical basis. The research covers a wide range of concepts (K. Mannheim, J. Ortega y Gasset, M. McLuhan, B. Anderson, P. Connerton, etc.), which reveal the temporal aspect of the analysed phenomenon, in particular, the insecurity of its constitution (the risk of a "lost generation") in the horizon of modernity as an unfinished project (J. Habermas), and the growing degree of responsibility associated with the formation of the creative social class. Originality. For the first time in the research literature, the author analyses the connection between the study of the phenomenon of generation and the establishment of a consensus in the modern world on the observance of the rules of win-win games as the value foundation of Western civilization. One of the key points of this process is the processing of the traumas of modernization. The omission of this task in the agenda of the transition society, despite the warnings evident in retrospect, releases the element of resentment, with consequences that can be qualified as an anthropological catastrophe. Conclusions. Ukrainian society, opening up to the world and working through the traumas of modernisation (Chornobyl, the Holodomor, the Fall of Lenin), which has become a kind of hermeneutical cycle of healing the "humanitarian aura of the nation" (L. Kostenko), in the process of which new layers such as the creative class appeared on the public scene, has demonstrated the European identity of the Ukrainian community. In the new horizon after 02/24, when, according to A. Yermolenko, it is no longer possible to talk about the postmodern situation, the Ukrainian agenda irreversibly acquires globality and should be rethought in the dimension of the "big time" and its global responsibility. This affects, in particular, the entire legacy of Russian-Soviet modernisation, to the extent that it has become an integral part of modern Ukrainian identity, including such controversial pages as the "Afghan" trauma.

Civil Society as the Arena of the New European Climate Hegemony

Using a neo-Gramscian approach, this paper explores the concept of civil society as an arena where European climate hegemony is built. The EU’s green transition, which involves deep social and economic transformations, needs extensive popular support to avoid social instability and the rise of populist parties. To achieve this, the European Commission is trying to construct a counter-hegemonic discourse that challenges the traditional modes of a fossil fuel-based economy by creating an alliance of actors around the ideology of just transition. Therefore, the study addresses the following research question: who are the change agents within European civil society that have aligned with the alliance, and how is fostering a counter-hegemonic discourse against the traditional economic model? By employing a qualitative methodological approach, the study explores the crucial function of civil society in the European green transition, exposing the most important agents and how these agents facilitate the formation of a new climate hegemony.

The digital afterlife between hypersecularization and postsecularity in contemporary speculative TV seriality: Devs, Upload and Black Mirror’s ‘San Junipero’

This article explores representations of the digital afterlife in contemporary speculative TV seriality within the broader context of their attitudes towards the fate of religions and religiosity in contemporary society. Specifically, it examines the miniseries Devs, the Black Mirror episode ‘San Junipero’ and the dramedy series Upload. Set in a near future, these series present distinctive and contrasting views on the future of religion in the public sphere, as well as in private life, and on the development of secularization processes, along with the entanglements between secular, religious and moral concerns. The article highlights how texts such as those considered exemplify the current transitional phase western societies are experiencing, wherein conventional narratives of secularization and more complex deconstructions of the secular–religious divide coexist. Through the various ways in which a futuristic yet imaginable setting like the digital afterlife is envisioned and represented, these texts articulate postsecular and hypersecularized accounts of near-future societies. The digital afterlife thus emerges as a tool for exploring different world-views, forms of morality and conceptions of everyday life and the meaning of human existence.

Beyond wages: The transformative role of strikes in accelerating transportation electrification

Transportation electrification is a critical step towards energy transition and low-carbon society, with wide-ranging social and economic impacts. This study examines the significant role of the 2023 United Auto Workers strike in the context of transportation electrification, with a focus on its implications for the automotive industry and labor market dynamics. Through an analysis of the strike’s immediate effects on production and long-term implications for labor practices and competitive strategies, this study explores how labor actions can influence the pace and direction of the transportation decarbonization efforts. We argue that the strike may accelerate automation and the adoption of non-unionized labor, potentially reshaping the future labor market and manufacturing landscape. To support a just and equitable transition, we call for incorporating the safeguarding of labor social benefits into the innovation of public policies and investment portfolios that incentivize the electric vehicle markets.

Connecting the dots – poverty, marginality, and the production of aggression and violence in post-war Sierra Leone

ABSTRACT A good collection of existing literature provides limited reflection on classifying post-conflict countries as being ‘peaceful’. This is especially so, as the period following the end of a civil war is normally characterised, as a period of ‘peace’, thereby equating peace to the silence of the guns. Such an understanding of what constitutes peace in post-conflict settings is problematic. This is because, societies in transition, are usually plagued with a plethora of challenges, with the legacies of war normally shaping the resurgence of violence in other forms. Additionally, complex transitions of violence and aggression, which reflect the socio-economic and political gyrations of a society redefining itself, and reconstructing its values are seen in most post-conflict contexts. Thus, using the case of Sierra Leone, this paper argues that some post-conflict settings experience negative peace, and diverse forms of violence that usually render communities unsafe, insecure and not peaceful. Thus, boxing societies in a bracket of being peaceful, because of the end of a violent civil war, limits what peace means in a specific contextual sense. It even undermines the potential for a broader approach towards understanding how the emerging forms of violence and aggression could be addressed.

Общая характеристика детерминационного комплекса террористической деятельности

Introduction. Understanding of the complexity, diversity of types and forms, technological nature of terrorist activity as a modern socio-legal phenomenon, its place and role in the dynamics of social development of modern transitional society, as well as the need for systemic counteraction to it determines the need for a comprehensive examination of terrorist activity and its manifestations in various projections and dimensions (abstraction intervals). The regularities of its functioning are systemic and are summarised in such principles as integrativity, integrity, holism, emergentism, synergy and hierarchy. The synthesis of knowledge from each of the dimensions makes it possible to obtain an interval model of terrorist activity, which enriches the criminological study of terrorist activity by revealing its multidimensional nature and establishing the mechanisms of determination. Research Methods. The methodological basis of the research was formed by the fundamental foundations and postulates of philosophical methodology: universal categories, principles and regularities of the dialectical, interval and activity approaches, general scientific methodology of the system approach, as well as general logical methods of cognition (methods of analysis and synthesis, abstraction and generalisation (concretisation), deduction and induction, systematisation, classification, description). The use of methodology of the interval approach provides a comprehensive study of terrorist activity and its manifestations in various projections and dimensions. Results. The determinational complex of terrorist activity was established, which is characterised by a combination of biological (natural and heliogeophysical factors, technologisation of the living environment, etc.); mental (related to the personality of the subject of terrorist activity and its victims); spiritual (religious and ethical); social (poverty, social inequality, unfavourable social conditions of society, etc.); legal (imperfection of legal means of regulating social relations, the possibility of legalisation of ideology and practice of violence, determined by the absence or ineffectiveness of legal prohibitions on terrorist activities, etc.); political (change in the unipolarity of the world order system, geopolitical confrontation of certain subjects of world politics, struggle for autonomy, political competition, etc.) factors. Identification of these factors makes it possible to effectively influence them as an object of preventive activity.

Overcoming barriers to circularity for internal ICT management in organizations: A change management approach

Circularity-conscious management of information and communications technology (ICT) owned by organizations is important to achieving a circular economy. However, changes in organizational management toward circularity has been met with multiple challenges. This study uses 11 semi-structured interviews with on-the-ground ICT decision-makers in organizations to determine what barriers prevent the development and implementation of circularity-related changes in organizational ICT management. We identified 13 barriers relating to information and knowledge transfer, access to circular equipment, finances and contracts, and prioritization over circularity. Barrier-based interventions were further structured by Lewin's 3-step change management model – unfreeze, change, refreeze – highlighting the role of information access, relationships with contracted partners, and internal accountability and priority structures. These results bridge a currently underdeveloped link between circularity and management research as well as provide policy makers, researchers, and ICT managers insight on facilitating ICT's impactful role in society's transition to circularity.