Social Security Expenditure Research Articles

Les indicateurs de performance en matière de politiques sociales

Résumé Les indicateurs associés aux projets de loi de finances (PLF) et de financement de la sécurité sociale (PLFSS) sont emblématiques des tentatives réalisées pour apprécier les « performances » de l’action publique dans les domaines sanitaire et social. L’analyse transversale des listes d’indicateurs figurant dans lois financières votées pour 2009 montre que les premiers suscitent les doutes importants quant à leur pertinence et leur interprétabilité pour les politiques sociales. Les indicateurs annexés au PLFSS dans le cadre des « programmes de qualité et d’efficience » (PQE) présentent nettement plus d’intérêt et de cohérence, avec des aspects discutables tenant notamment au caractère « politique » de l’exercice. Ce recours aux indicateurs pour mesurer les « performances » des politiques sociales comporte en tout état de cause des limites, qui entraînent des besoins d’évaluation « pluridimensionnelle », et la nécessité d’une autonomie accrue par rapport aux décideurs.

The Labour Market Effect of Social Security in Germany

This paper investigates the relationship between social security and laobour market in Germany and calculates the regression relation among social security expenditure,social security contribution,enterprise investment and unemployment rate.The results Indicated that the labour market has a closed relevance with social security. Reducing the social security contribution of enterprise is an important means to control the unemployment.And the proper level social security expenditure is the most crucial factor to keep the beneficial cycle between social security and laobour market . Key words: Social Security Contribution; Social Security Expenditure; Labour Market

Exploring high saving rates in China: an analysis based on the 1992–2003 China flow of funds accounts

本文以国家统计局公布的1992－2003年中国资金流量表为基础，从收入分配和部 门储蓄倾向两个方面对居民、企业和政府等国内三个部门的储蓄率进行了比较分析。 我们发现，尽管居民部门的储蓄率最高，但是，自1992年以来，它实际上呈逐步下降 趋势，其主要原因在于居民部门获得的劳动报酬、财产收入和再分配收入均有所下 降；企业储蓄率呈现缓缓上升趋势，主要原因并不在于企业盈利能力的提高，而在于 其主要支出——对居民部门的劳动报酬支出和利息支出长期被稳定在较低的水平上； 政府储蓄率在经历了上个世纪的低位徘徊之后，于2000年以后急剧上升，其主要原因 在于，通过初次分配和再分配，政府的可支配收入在国民收入的分配中占据了越来越 大的份额，同时政府部门的储蓄倾向也在不断提高。本文的政策建议是：为了实现以 提高国内消费率为核心的经济发展战略，我国的经济运行应全面转向以改善收入分配 结构、提高居民收入为重点的轨道上。为达此目的，加速财政政策向公共财政转型， 增加公共支出和对居民的福利支出，在提高劳动生产率的基础上提高企业对劳动者的 支付水平，应成为今后我国宏观调控的长期任务。 关键词: 储蓄率 资金流量表 收入分配 On the basis of the 1992–2003 flow of funds accounts for China released by the National Statistics Bureau, this article conducts a comparative analysis of the saving rates of the household, corporate and government sectors from the perspective of income distribution and saving propensity. We found that although the household sector had the highest saving rate, it had actually trended downwards since 1992, as a result of falling labor compensation, property income and income from redistribution. Over this period, the corporate saving rate rose slowly, mainly because of a prolonged period of relatively low wage and interest costs rather than increased profitability. The government saving rate, which remained low in the last century, rose dramatically after 2000. The main reasons for this were the ever‐increasing share of government disposable revenue in national income distribution via primary distribution and redistribution and the sector's increased saving propensity. Our policy recommendations suggest that in order to implement an economic development strategy centered on boosting domestic consumption, China should shift its economic focus to improving the income distribution structure and increasing household income. For this purpose, fiscal policies should be oriented toward increased public financing, public expenditure and social security expenditure and toward higher labor compensation based on increased productivity in the corporate sector. These aims should be taken as the objectives of national macroeconomic regulation.

Transition and the Fiscal Crisis in Central Europe

This paper argues that traditional explanations of the fiscal crisis in transition economies overlook the crucial interconnection between the reduction in subsidies expenditure and the decrease in profit tax revenues. It thus contends that the impact on the fiscal budget of the crisis of state-owned enterprises profitability has been largely overestimated in the literature. The net contribution to the government budget from the enterprise sector - defined as profit taxes net of cross-subsidization - has increased during the transition in Poland and Czechoslovakia, and has remained constant in Hungary. After reexamining the data, it is argued that - while it is undoubtable that the prospects for fiscal revenues are worrisome - the main determinant of the fiscal crisis is to the explosion of social security expenditures. The paper also assesses the applicability of these results to other former socialist economies.

Work Disability, Health, and Incentive Effects

Disability insurance – the insurance against the loss of the ability to work – is a substantial part of social security expenditures in many countries. The enrolment rates in disability insurance vary strik-ingly across European countries and the US. This paper investigates the extent of, and the causes for, this variation, using data from SHARE, ELSA and HRS. We show that even after controlling for differences in the demographic structure and health status these differences remain. In turn, indicators of disability insurance generosity explain 75% of the cross-national variation. We conclude that country-specific disability insurance rules are a prime can-didate to explain the observed cross-country variation in disability insurance enrolment.

Foreign Participation in Life Insurance Markets: Evidence from OECD Countries

This paper examines the determinants of foreign participation in life insurance markets across 24 OECD countries during the period 1993–2000. The empirical results show that socio-economic and market structure factors influence foreign participation in life insurance markets. More specifically, life expectancy, foreign market share, income, dependency ratio, financial development, level of competition, economic growth and market liberalisation have positive impacts, whereas expense/combined ratios and social security expenditure have negative impacts on foreign participation in life insurance markets. In addition, governance/legal indicators (common law, political stability, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, the rule of law and control of corruption) all show positive impacts on foreign participation in life insurance markets.

Pension Plan Revision and Fiscal Consolidation of Japan

Matsuo examines the structure and prospects of the Japanese pension system in the context of the challenges posed by population aging and the high current public debt. Social security expenditure accounts for almost half of the general expenditure in the Japanese budget and is growing rapidly. In the coming years the first baby-boomers will retire. Therefore, pension reform is deemed indispensable for the sustainability of social security and the overall Japanese fiscal position. Matsuo describes the main features and implications of the reform introduced in 2004, which aimed at making the pension system sustainable for the next 100 years and at limiting the burden for the working-age population. The reform set a ceiling on the pension system contribution rate and introduced a new mechanism for the indexation of pension benefits. Pensions will not be fully adjusted to changes in prices, either upward or downward. The reform has also set a minimum level of 50 percent for the ratio of first and second pillar pensions to the average income of employees.

Health Anxiety and Disability Pension Award: The HUSK Study

To examine the hypothesized effect of health anxiety on subsequent disability pension award. Mental disorders are consistently underrecognized in general health care, leading to underestimation of its effects on related social security expenditures. According to medicolegal diagnoses for disability pension award, there are almost no awards of disability benefits for health anxiety or hypochondriasis. There are no empirical longitudinal population-based studies on occupational disability in health anxiety or the extreme of hypochondriasis. Using a historical cohort design, we utilized a unique link between a large epidemiological cohort study (n = 6819) and a comprehensive national database of disability benefits to examine the effect of health anxiety on subsequent disability pension award (n = 277) during 1.0 to 6.6 years of follow-up. The data sources were merged after informed consent, using the national personal identification number. Health anxiety was a strong predictor of disability pension award, exceeding the effect of general anxiety, and comparable to the effect of depression. This effect was partly accounted for by adjustment for income and level of education, and comorbid mental, psychosomatic, or physical conditions. The effect was not limited to high symptom levels, but followed a dose-response association. Despite the robust effect in this prospective study, health anxiety or hypochondriasis was not recognized as medicolegal diagnosis for any awards of disability pension, and was not accounted for by other mental disorders. Health anxiety is a strong, independent, and yet underrecognized risk factor for disability pension award.

Economic Openness, Job Insecurity, and the Welfare State

The compensation hypothesis is the most well known explanation of the empirical evidence showing a positive relationship between economic openness and the welfare state. This article argues that the core assumptions of this explanation requires a test of two hypotheses: (1) economic openness at the national level increases job insecurity at the individual level and (2) job insecurity at the individual level increases public spending at the national level. The two hypotheses are tested with data from the European Social Survey (ESS), the KOF Index of Globalization (KOF), and the Social Security Expenditure Database (SSED), providing information about 18,673 persons living in 26 European countries. The multilevel analysis shows no support for the hypotheses and it is therefore concluded that the underlying assumptions of the compensation hypothesis need to be reconsidered.

Recent Trends of Social Security Expenditures in OECD Countries

Recent Trends of Social Security Expenditures in OECD Countries

The “Papy-boom”: A historical opportunity for French public hospitals

Abstract The French public hospital system represents a major element in overall social security expenditure and ongoing reforms are having a significant impact on its financial equilibrium and the internal management of its activities. Nonetheless, the system has been unable to achieve the productivity objectives imposed on it. Significantly, staffing costs account for three quarters of its expenditure, yet most employees are civil servants who cannot be laid off easily. The only possibility for meaningful change in the size of its workforce may lie in the demographic revolution now affecting the French population, which will see half the present staff of public hospitals reaching retirement age within the next decade.

Education and Dimensions of Social Capital: Do Educational Effects Differ due to Educational Expansion and Social Security Expenditure?

To what extent does education affect formal and informal social capital, what is the influence of educational expansion, and welfare state contexts, and to what extent do educational effects on social capital differ under varying educational expansion and welfare state contexts? Multilevel estimates on 28 nations from the Eurobarometer (62.2; 2004) reveal that educational attainment increases all indicators of both formal and informal social capital except one: contact frequency with one’s neighbours. We attributed this latter finding to the existence of a localist orientation among lower educated individuals. The higher educated profit from socialization at home, at school, and through their social networks in terms of social capital. There are no consistent patterns that show that in countries with a high level of educational expansion and social security expenditure, levels of formal or informal social capital are on average lower or higher. Cross-level interaction estimates, however, strongly suggest that educational expansion decreases educational differences in both formal and informal social capital. These findings suggest that individuals are motivated and recruited through networks to become socially active.

High cost-benefit of early team-based biomedical and cognitive-behaviour intervention for long-term pain-related sickness absence

To report the results from a prospective, cognitive-behavioural team-based, individually geared, low-intensity, rehabilitation programme, randomly assigned to care-seekers in primary care physiotherapy with new pain-related sick leave, and to examine a possible reduction in social security expenditure. A total of 194 care-seekers were included in a stepwise procedure from November 2000 to February 2002. Control group n = 381. The median number of days of sick leave in the intervention group was 22 during the first 6-month period. After 180 days 5.2% were still on sick leave and after 360 days 4.2%. The comparable figures in the control group were 30 days, 9.7% and 7.2%, respectively. Reductions in social security expenditure were statistically significant from the fourth month. As predicted, clinically relevant subgroups contributed differently to this reduction, both early and later on. The overall problem for one-third of the subgroups was insufficient co-ordination from the employer and the social security executive. It was possible to reduce the social security expenditure in this setting. The intervention costs were balanced out during the first year. A large potential for further cost reductions was identified in increased implementation of workplace-based return-to-work interventions.

Financing Bologna: Which Country will Pay for Foreign Students?

In an integrated set of jurisdictions, where residents of one country may obtain higher education in another country and later return home (with some probability), the question arises of which country has to pay for higher education abroad—the country of origin of the student, which is likely to benefit from the education acquired abroad, or the country that has produced the extra human capital? This paper, nested in the philosophy of the Bologna process and the reality of today’s European Union—where such issue is hot for countries like Belgium and Austria, which host numerous students from France and Germany—investigates under which conditions it can be recommended to set up a network of bilateral treaties or a multilateral arrangement, in some sense similar to what exists for taxation, social security or health expenditures, which imposes the country of origin to be responsible for the payment of studies of its resident students either at home or abroad, provided it is in a certified institution.

An overview of health financing patterns and the way forward in the who african region

The way a health system is financed affects the performance of its other functions of stewardship, input (or resource) creation and services provision, and ultimately, the achievement of health system goals of health improvement (or maintenance), responsiveness to people's non-medical expectations and fair financial contributions. To analyse the changes between 1998 and 2002,in health financing from various sources; and to propose ways of improving the performance of health financing function in the WHO African Region. A retrospective analysis of data obtained from the World Health Report, 2005. The analysis reported in this paper is based on the National Health Accounts (NHA) data for the 46 WHO Member States in the African Region. The data were obtained from the World Health Report 2005. It consisted of information on: levels of per capita expenditure on health; total expenditure on health as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP); general government expenditure on health as a percentage of total expenditure on health; private expenditure on health as a percentage of total expenditure on health; general government expenditure on health as a percentage of total government expenditure; external expenditure as a percentage of total expenditure on health; social security expenditure on health as a percentage of general government expenditure on health; out-of-pocket expenditure as a percentage of private expenditure on health; and private prepaid plans as a percentage of private expenditure on health. The analysis was done using Lotus SmartSuite software. The analysis revealed that: fifteen countries spent less than 4.5% of their GDP on health; forty four countries spent less than 15% of their national annual budget on health; sixty three percent of the governments in the Region spent less than US$10 per person per year; fifty per cent of the total expenditure on health in 24 countries came from government sources; prepaid health financing mechanisms cover only a small proportion of populations in the Region; private spending constituted over 40% of the total expenditure on health in 31; direct out-of-pocket expenditures constituted over 50% of the private health expenditure in 38 countries. Every country needs to develop clear pro-poor health financing policy and a comprehensive health financing strategic plan with a clear roadmap of how it plans to transit from the current health financing state dominated by inequitable, catastrophic and impoverishing direct out-of-pocket payments to a visionary scenario of universal coverage. The strategic plan should strengthening of health sector advocacy and health financing capacities, health economics evidence generation and utilisation in decision-making, making better use of available and expected resources, monitoring of equity in financing, strengthening of the exemption mechanisms, managed removal of direct out-of-pocket payments (for countries that choose to), and improving country-led sectoral coordination mechanisms (e.g. Sector Wide Approaches).

The Demand for Life Insurance in OECD Countries

AbstractThis article examines the determinants of life insurance consumption in OECD countries. Consistent with previous results, we find a significant positive income elasticity of life insurance demand. Demand also increases with the number of dependents and level of education, and decreases with life expectancy and social security expenditure. The country's level of financial development and its insurance market's degree of competition appear to stimulate life insurance sales, whereas high inflation and real interest rates tend to decrease consumption. Overall, life insurance demand is better explained when the product market and socioeconomic factors are jointly considered. In addition, the use of GMM estimates helps reconcile our findings with previous puzzling results based on inconsistent OLS estimates given heteroscedasticity problems in the data.

Modelling the impact of aging on social security expenditures

In this paper, we survey the features of different approaches available in the literature used to study the effects of population aging on Social Security expenditures. We comment on the weaknesses and strengths of each of them, and perform a quantitative analysis by comparing the results they imply in the particular case of the Spanish economy. Finally, we highlight some elements of the modelling strategies on which more evidence is needed for a correct evaluation of the problem at hand.

Political Budget Cycles and Social Security Budget Increases in the Republic of Ireland, 1923-2005

This paper examines social security increases in Ireland as a case study of the existence of political budget cycles in European countries. Ireland is an appropriate country to examine, first because it has a system of proportional representation and some studies suggest that proportional electoral systems are associated with expansions of welfare spending both before and after elections. Second, it is generally recognised that Irish political parties occupy the middle ground in terms of political ideology. Again studies would suggest that an absence of a strong ideological commitment to particular policies may make political budget cycles more likely. Utilising the distinctive nature of the public expenditure process in relation to welfare budget increases, this paper examines the issue of whether or not a political budget cycle can be seen in Ireland in relation to social security expenditure. It draws a number of conclusions as to the existence and incidence of political budget cycles in an Irish context and also looks at whether political budget cycles have succeeded in their apparent objective i.e. securing election for the relevant political party.

Nascent entrepreneurship and the level of economic development

Based upon two strands of literature, this paper hypothesizes a U-shaped relationship between a country’s rate of entrepreneurial dynamics and its level of economic development. This would imply a different scope for entrepreneurship policy across subsequent stages of development. Regressing GEM’s 2002 data for nascent entrepreneurship in 36 countries on the level of economic development as measured either by per capita income or by an index for innovative capacity, we find support for a U-shaped relationship. Testing our results against several control variables, evidence is again found for this relationship with economic development, in addition to significant effects of the business ownership rate (+), social security expenditure (-), aggregate taxes (+) and population growth (+). The results suggest that a ‘natural rate’ of nascent entrepreneurship is to some extent governed by ‘laws’ related to the level of economic development. For the most advanced nations, improving incentive structures for business start-ups and promoting the commercial exploitation of scientific findings offer the most promising approach for public policy. Developing nations, however, may be better off pursuing the exploitation of scale economies, fostering foreign direct investment and promoting management education.

East Asian Welfare Regimes: Testing the Hypothesis of the Developmental Welfare State

AbstractFollowing the three welfare regimes constructed by Esping‐Andersen, many scholars have addressed the question of whether there may be a further type of regime, differing from the categories of liberal, conservative and social democratic, pertaining to other parts of the world. Discussion has centred largely on East Asia and, in particular, on the notion of the developmental/productivist welfare regime. Yet these discussions have been based more on conceptual classification than empirical analysis. This article attempts to fill in the gap, with reference to the developmental characteristics of Taiwan, South Korea and Japan. A set of 15 indicators is developed for the factor and cluster analysis of 20 countries, based on data from the 1980s and 1990s. The results indicate the existence of a new group, consisting of Taiwan and South Korea, which is distinct from Esping‐Andersen's three regimes – unlike Japan, which remains a composite of various regime types. Regime characteristics peculiar to the cases of Taiwan and South Korea include: low/medium social security expenditure, high social investment, more extensive gender discrimination in salary, medium/high welfare stratification, a high non‐coverage rate for pensions, high individual welfare loading, and high family welfare responsibility. When compared with Esping‐Andersen's three regimes, the East Asian developmental regime shows similarity with his conservative model, in respect of welfare stratification, while the non‐coverage of welfare entitlements is similar to his liberal model. There is virtually no evidence of any similarity between the developmental welfare regime and Esping‐Andersen's social democratic regime type.