Snow Reliability Research Articles

Climate change in a regional context: relative vulnerability in the Australasian skier market

The concept of relative vulnerability allows for comparisons between analogous units in a regional context. It is utilised within tourism studies to consider how climate change might affect demand and perceived attractiveness of destinations relative to their competitors. This paper examines Australian tourists travelling to New Zealand’s ski fields, responding to the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) assertion that, “tourist flows from Australia to New Zealand might grow as a result of the relatively poorer snow conditions in Australia” (Hennessy et al. 2007: p 523). This travel flow is not a new phenomenon; however, it is forecast to increase as climate change impacts upon Australia’s natural and man-made snowmaking capacity with implications for the viability of the ski industries in both Australia and New Zealand. The Queenstown Lakes Region (South Island, New Zealand) serves as the field area for this study. The empirical research utilises a qualitative methodology for which in-depth, semi-structured interviews were conducted with New Zealand ski industry representatives and Australian tourists during the southern hemisphere winter season of 2011. Findings suggest that the social context of vulnerability creates difficulty in forecasting the outcomes and behaviours associated with relative vulnerability. While tourism representatives’ focus on snow reliability and availability to conceptualise relative vulnerability, Australian tourists are influenced by a broader range of factors including their own travel experience. This paper demonstrates a clear need to move beyond a focus on snow reliability to consider the broad range of factors that contribute to regional variations in vulnerability. In doing so, it confirms the critical importance of situating relative vulnerability within a social context.

Alpine snow cover in a changing climate: a regional climate model perspective

An analysis is presented of an ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) experiments from the ENSEMBLES project in terms of mean winter snow water equivalent (SWE), the seasonal evolution of snow cover, and the duration of the continuous snow cover season in the European Alps. Two sets of simulations are considered, one driven by GCMs assuming the SRES A1B greenhouse gas scenario for the period 1951–2099, and the other by the ERA-40 reanalysis for the recent past. The simulated SWE for Switzerland for the winters 1971–2000 is validated against an observational data set derived from daily snow depth measurements. Model validation shows that the RCMs are capable of simulating the general spatial and seasonal variability of Alpine snow cover, but generally underestimate snow at elevations below 1,000 m and overestimate snow above 1,500 m. Model biases in snow cover can partly be related to biases in the atmospheric forcing. The analysis of climate projections for the twenty first century reveals high inter-model agreement on the following points: The strongest relative reduction in winter mean SWE is found below 1,500 m, amounting to 40–80 % by mid century relative to 1971–2000 and depending upon the model considered. At these elevations, mean winter temperatures are close to the melting point. At higher elevations the decrease of mean winter SWE is less pronounced but still a robust feature. For instance, at elevations of 2,000–2,500 m, SWE reductions amount to 10–60 % by mid century and to 30–80 % by the end of the century. The duration of the continuous snow cover season shows an asymmetric reduction with strongest shortening in springtime when ablation is the dominant factor for changes in SWE. We also find a substantial ensemble-mean reduction of snow reliability relevant to winter tourism at elevations below about 1,800 m by mid century, and at elevations below about 2,000 m by the end of the century.

Winter Tourism, Climate Change, and Snowmaking in the Swiss Alps: Tourists' Attitudes and Regional Economic Impacts

Technical snowmaking has become an important measure in winter tourism destinations to deal with decreasing snow reliability, seasonal weather variability, and growing customer demand. This study analyzes tourists' attitudes toward technical snowmaking, their preferences for snow reliability, and other factors that influence destination choice. We interviewed tourists at 3 Swiss winter tourism destinations: Davos, Scuol, and Braunwald. In addition, we analyzed the impact of technical snowmaking on the regional economy in Davos with a scenario analysis based on a simplified model of the regional economy related to tourist behavior. The 3 destinations showed large regional and seasonal differences in tourists' attitudes toward technical snowmaking and the importance of factors that influence destination choice. Generally, technical snowmaking is being increasingly accepted among tourists. It can be considered as insurance for snow reliability. In major tourist destinations that focus on skiing for winter tourism, the potential damage to mountain railways and hotels from lack of snow can be great enough to justify the costs of technical snowmaking. But snow reliability is not the most crucial factor that affects the attractiveness of destinations in general. Our results show that the European Alpine landscape and a wide choice of activities in the winter as well as the summer season are the most important factors that influence destination choice. In some cases, therefore, it may be economically reasonable to refrain from technical snowmaking and redirect investment to tourist attractions independent of snow conditions.

Klimawandel und Wintertourismus – Ein Vulnerabilitätsprofil für die Region Tirol

Zusammenfassung Wintertourismus gilt hinsichtlich des Klimawandels aufgrund seiner großen Schneeabhängigkeit als eines der gefährdetsten Tourismussegmente. Um frühzeitig auf Veränderungen reagieren zu können, bspw. durch eine Umstrukturierung des Angebots, ist Kenntnis über die klimatischen Rahmenbedingungen nötig. Zu diesem Zweck wurde ein Modell zur Simulation der Skisaison unter Berücksichtigung der Beschneiung für 111 Skigebiete in Tirol (Österreich) und Südtirol (Italien) angewandt und eine mehrstufige Schneesicherheitsklassifizierung entwickelt. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass vor allem der äußerste Nordwesten, der Nordosten und der Südosten des Untersuchungsgebiets schon in den 2030ern eine hohe Vulnerabilität aufweisen. Diese Regionen sind gefordert, den Klimawandel in der strategischen Ausrichtung der Tourismusbranche in Zukunft stärker zu berücksichtigen.

Winter Tourism and Climate Change in the Alps: An Assessment of Resource Consumption, Snow Reliability, and Future Snowmaking Potential

Abstract The winter tourism industry is facing considerable challenges with climate change; it is increasingly responding with investments in snowmaking facilities. We present a study on 3 tourism destinations in the Swiss Alps that addressed resource consumption of snowmaking, snow reliability, and future snowmaking potential in a warmer climate. The energy consumption of snowmaking in the ski resorts was in the lower range of what could be expected from literature values. It comprised ∼0.5% of the respective municipality's energy consumption and was moderate compared with other tourism-related activities. Water consumption, however, was in the higher range with regard to what was expected from literature values and was also high compared with other water uses (eg 36% compared with drinking water consumption in one community). Natural snow cover was partly critical for winter sports at low elevations at ∼1200 masl, but uncritical at higher elevations above 2000 masl. Snow cover will become even more crit...

Glaciers, snow and ski tourism in Austria’s changing climate

AbstarctThis study illustrates the relevance of cryospheric changes for, and their impact on, ski tourism in Austria. The results of several case studies on snow reliability, snow production and mass balance in glacier ski resorts in the Ötz and Stubai valleys are summarized. Climate data from Obergurgl (1936ma.s.l.) in the Ötz valley are analyzed with respect to the amount and duration of natural snow cover and the possibility of snow production. A case study on Mittelbergferner focuses on the impacts of glacial recession on a ski resort and possible adaptation measures. From long-term glacier inventory and short-term mass-balance data, the effect of operating ski resorts on glaciers is investigated. At Obergurgl, the probability of both snow cover and snow production is >80% from December to March and decreases significantly in the months before and after this peak season. The interannual variability of snow cover and production is low during the main season and higher in other months. Year-to-year differences are larger than any long-term trend. Glacier ski resorts must adapt to shrinking glacial area and falling glacier surface. Covering the glacier with textiles reduces ablation by 60% and results in significantly less volume loss than on uncovered parts of the glacier. Neither the mass-balance comparison between groomed and ungroomed areas nor the comparison of long-term volume changes between 10 ski resort glaciers and 100 surrounding glaciers showed evidence for an impact of the operation of ski resorts on the glaciers.

Snow days? Snowmaking adaptation and the future of low latitude, high elevation skiing in Arizona, USA

Inter-annual snow reliability is a key short-term concern for Arizona's high elevation, low latitude ski resorts. Variability is linked to the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-warm phase conditions typically portend a good ski season and vice versa. To operate more consistently in the medium-term Arizona's two largest ski resorts plan to expand snowmaking. Snowmaking is a water and temperature constrained adaptation. One of the two resorts has overcome its water constraint by contracting with a municipality for treated wastewater. To assess the temperature constraint downscaled global coupled climate model temperature projections were compared to technical thresholds for the manufacture of snow at three time steps. In 2030, a period coincident with the lifetime of the investments, snowmaking will likely remain feasible. However, by 2050, temperatures will likely exceed technical thresholds in the shoulder seasons meaning that in years when natural snowfalls are poor the ski season may be curtailed. By 2080, without snowmaking efficiency improvements, warmer temperatures will make snowmaking increasingly more ex- pensive and resort managers may need to plan for a future where operations and snowmaking are shifted to higher elevation, shaded, more snow reliable runs.

Impact of snowmaking on alpine water resources management under present and climate change conditions

Owing to less natural snow reliability as a result of climate change on the one hand, and the demand of higher standards by winter tourists on the other hand, the production of artificial snow in ski resorts has increased substantially during the last 20 years and is likely to increase further in future. Little research has been conducted on the impact of snowmaking as a water demand stakeholder on a regional water balance. In this paper, a regional water balance (water demand-water resources) is analysed for the greater Kitzbueheler Region in the Austrian Alps, for the current situation and a future climate change scenario (2 degrees C warming). For this temperature rise a significant reduction in natural snow cover duration and snow accumulation is predicted, an effect that increases with lower altitudes and differs between the winter months. Due to the shortening of the winter season, a change in seasonality of river flows and available water resources (ground and surface water) occurs. Both increase in winter, and decrease in spring. The water demand for improvement snowmaking increases, especially in the month of March. However, December proved to be the critical month due to the large amounts of water required for base snowmaking both now and in future. These results stress the necessity of reservoir storage for base snowmaking on a regional level. Water availability during other months but winter is sufficient to fill these reservoirs.

Snowmaking and Climate Change

Winter tourism is highly sensitive to climate change. The sufficiently studied altitudinally dependent line of natural snow reliability is losing its relevance for skilift operators in Austria, where 59% of the ski area is covered by artificial snowmaking. But the diffusion of snowmaking facilities cannot be monocausally linked to climate change, as trends in tourism, prestige, and competitive advantage are important factors. Despite the fact that snowmaking is limited by climatological factors, skilift operators trust in technical improvements and believe the future will not be as menacing as assumed by recent climate change impact studies. The aim of the present study is to define reasons for the diffusion of snowmaking systems and to determine whether snowmaking can be a viable adaptation strategy despite ongoing warming, using a simple degree-day model. Results obtained with this method of assessing technical snow reliability show that current snowmaking intensity will not be sufficient to guarantee the desired 100-day season at elevations below 1500–1600 m. Snowmaking will still be possible climatically even at lower elevations, but the required intensification of capacity will lead to significantly higher operation costs.

Floristic changes in subalpine grasslands after 22 years of artificial snowing

Global warming affects snow reliability in many winter sports resorts between 1200 and 1800 m a.s.l. in the European Alps. To deal with this problem, tourism managers consider guaranteeing winter sports by intensifying artificial snow-making. However, the knowledge of the impacts of artificial snow on ecosystems and especially on vegetation is still rudimentary. The aim of this study was to investigate whether artificial snowing leads to detectable quantitative and qualitative changes in the floristic composition of upper montane and subalpine meadows and pastures. In Savognin (eastern Swiss Alps), where artificial snow-making occurred every year since 1978, ten transects were laid perpendicular to the artificially snowed ski run between 1190 and 1780 m a.s.l. Each transect consisted of two to six plots in the artificially snowed area and five to eight plots on its left and/or right side. Vegetation censuses were made in 1987 (cover data) as well as in 1988 and 2000 (presence/absence data). A phytosociological survey of the general study area was accomplished in 1988. Air permeability and ion content of the artificial snow cover were also analysed. The results suggest that artificial snow leads to detectable changes in the floristic composition as well as to a decrease in species richness of the communities involved. In particular, the additional inputs of water and ions seem to alter the competition balance in the communities, promoting the faster growing species characteristic of nutrient-rich, mesic habitats at the expense of weaker competitors such as the species of low-nutrient and drier habitats. In conclusion, artificial snow represents a serious threat for the plant species diversity of low-nutrient and dry grasslands.