Snap Elections Research Articles

The general theoretic aspects of the optimization of democracy in the context of the guaranteeing of the order and welfare

The article is devoted to the problems and perspectives of democracy as the form of organization of the social and political existence in general, as well as to the some aspects of the optimization of democracy in the context of the guaranteeing of the social welfare in particular. The real aim of the existence of the democracy was revealed. It was noted that stability is the most important elements of the value of the state. The author pays attention to the advantages of the presidential republic, of the constitutional monarchy, of the «Polybius scheme» of the ideal «mixed» state, of the two-party system, of the indirect elections, of the temporal fixation of the elections and of the absence of the snap elections in the context of the guarantee of the political stability. The optimal model of government, the rational limits of the democracy and its acceptable forms were proposed. The author says that democracy is more or less acceptable only if the laws of the state guarantee the impossibility of the election of the unworthy candidate. The system of the electoral qualifications for the members of the Electoral College as well as for the candidates to the elected positions was recommended. Also, the similar system of the qualifications for the officials of the executive power was recommended. The author says that the republican state should be built «from the below». It was noticed that citizens may make the conscious choice only inside their common during the local elections or during the elections of the members of the Electoral College, when they really know the candidates and their personal qualities. The author recommends the political model, when people elect the members of the Electoral College, and the last one form the local representative organs during the local elections, and after that the local representative organs delegate some their members to the regional representative organs, and the last one delegate some their members and form the parliament of the state. Also, the political model, when the executive power is built «from the below», was recommended. The author says that each official of the executive power should start his service from the primary position in local executive bodies, and that the filling of the vacant positions should be done exclusively on the basis of professionalism, experience, length of service and seniority of the officials, but not on the grounds of the arbitrariness of the highest officials or randomnicity. The main principles of replacing of the post of the head of the state in the parliamentary republic as well as in the presidential republic were outlined. It was noted that the professionalism, experience and the high moral qualities of the officials, and especially of the senior state officials, are the fundament of the effective governance and welfare of society, etc.

Spain: Political Developments and Data in 2023

AbstractThe year 2023 was marked by a dense and turbulent political period. The country faced local and regional elections, snap elections and the reformulation of the left‐wing coalition government. Spain also chaired the Council of the European Union during the second semester. The victory of the right (the Partido Popular and Vox) in the local and regional elections held in May in 12 regions (Autonomous Communities), precipitated the call for general elections in July 2023. This process culminated in the renewal of the Sánchez coalition government with support from the Basque and Catalan pro‐independence parties and the exclusion of Podemos leaders from the new governing coalition. The decline of Podemos, the emergence of Sumar and the disappearance of Ciudadanos characterise the new Parliament. The reform of the law on sexual consent and the start of negotiations on a controversial amnesty law dominated the political agenda. In terms of the Spanish economy, the negotiation of an addendum to the National Recovery and Resilience Plan also stands out.

The evolution of election forecasting models in the UK

This article reviews and analyzes the historical development, innovations, and challenges of election forecasting models in Britain. To anticipate challenges for forecasters, we proceed chronologically from Whiteley's (1979) popularity model and Mughan's (1987) political-economy model to the most recent forecasts in 2019. We then move on to discuss the desired characteristics of forecasts and assess the accuracy of ex-ante UK forecasts. This analysis reveals that while forecasters have had successes, certain elections have posed challenges. In 2015, the models failed to predict a Tory victory, and the snap elections in 2017 and 2019 left scholars with little time to generate and publish forecasts. We discuss the lessons learned and next steps for UK forecasters. And, throughout our article, we highlight the contributions of Harold Clarke who is remembered in this Electoral Studies symposium.

Lukashenka’s Constitutional Plebiscite and the Polarization of Belarusian Society

Aliaksandr Lukashenka pushed through an overhaul of Belarus’s constitution as a response to the protests against the official results of the 2020 presidential election. The goal was to address the desire for change among the population without reacting to the demand for snap elections. With the February 2022 constitutional plebiscite on the most far-ranging changes to Belarus’s constitution since 1994, Lukashenka further entrenched himself in power. The results of our online survey suggest that the constitutional changes do not meet the broad societal demand for political change and, in particular, for constraints on presidential power. Despite the persistence of the political conflict, we also show that Lukashenka’s supporters and opponents are not irreconcilably polarized in every policy domain. Finally, our results suggest that regime supporters have stronger anti-democratic preferences than opposition supporters when it comes to future political participation of the two camps, making the effects of affective polarization highly asymmetrical.

FIFTH PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN BULGARIA

The article discusses the prerequisites and results of the fifth elections to the People’s Assembly called during the two year period and held on April 2, 2023 It analyses the dispositions of the electorate in view of the Eurobarometer polls data and the election results. The past vote, despite some changes in the party structure of the People’s Assembly, testified once again to the deep disappointment of the weary Bulgarian voter in the entire political class. At the same time, it has recreated the stalemate in Parliament. The leaders of the warring majority camps (GERB-SDS vs «We Continue the changes» – «Democratic Bulgaria») already fear of being branded as the culprits of a new failure leading to appointment of one more temporary technocratic government by the president and the next snap elections. Such a prospect does not bode well for them, while their coalition is potential of seriously damaging their reputation. In such circumstances, the fighting forces are trying to find a magic formula for formation of a coalition cabinet. The near future will show whether the instinct of self-preservation will work or selfish party interests will prevail followed by déjà vu. However, in any development no change in the general anti-Russian vector of Bulgarian foreign policy is expected.

Political Budget Cycles in Early Versus Regular Elections: The Case of Serbia.

The paper analyses Political Budget Cycles in the context of a young post-communist democracy, Serbia. The authors deploy well-established methodological (time series) approaches to examine the general government budget balance (fiscal deficit) in conjunction with elections. The findings suggest that there is clear evidence of higher fiscal deficit prior to elections-however, this is the case only for regular (scheduled) elections and not so for snap (early called) elections. The paper contributes to the PBC literature by revealing different incumbent behaviour in regular versus early elections, thus highlighting the importance of distinguishing between these types of elections in the domain of PBC research.

The Trajectory of Contemporary Governance in Lesotho: A Transition towards Coalition Government

This paper examines the success story of the formation of coalition government in Lesotho. Lesotho has since 1970 experienced a chequered history of authoritarian and military rules until 1993 when the country went democratic. Interestingly, within two decades of the country’s multi-party democratic experience, it has experimented with multiple governmental systems viz; in 1993-1998, it adopted First-Past the Post or winner-takes-all model, and then in 2001, it adopted Mixed Member Proportion model, which brought some stability within the unitary parliamentary governance. In 2012 the latter model gave impetus to a new model of coalition government. Unfortunately, however, the three- party coalition government was interrupted in 2014 by a military adventurism which gave rise to the 2015 snap elections that led to another seven-party coalition government. Interestingly, another faction occurred from the seven-party coalition and a vote of no-confidence was passed by the opposition against the ruling coalition, which led to the early 2017 elections. The third coalition governance of four parties was established after the elections and took its term of five years before the elections of October 2022 that established a “trinity” of three parties coalition under the leadership of a prominent businessman. This paper posits that although coalition model has been accepted by the Lesotho people, however, it has come with increasing cost on executive expenditure, as it puts great burden on taxpayers. This paper recommends the inclusion in the democratic discourse (conversation), a blend of the western democratic culture with traditional African culture in administering the affairs of the state since the two are not mutually exclusive.

Dissolution risk and legislative effort of politicians

In parliamentary countries where snap elections are allowed, politicians are uncertain as to whether their term will end prematurely following dissolution—and if so, when. We analyze the extent to which dissolution risk affects politicians’ legislative effort and identify which cohort of politicians is more susceptible to the risk. Using the monthly dissolution risk index that we construct based on the frequency of newspaper coverage on dissolution in Japan from 2005 to 2016, we find that one standard deviation increase in the index reduced attendance by 2.64 meetings at the individual legislator-monthly level in the lower house. The members in the lower house with greater seniority, nominal-only members, dual-listed members, and those who previously won a close election were particularly more sensitive to dissolution risk.

Facebook посланията на предизборната парламентарна кампания’2021

Abstract: For the Bulgarians, as a result of the epidemic of COVID-19, the election year 2021 passed in the conditions of virtual communication. They voted three times for a national parliament and once again - for president. The hard political confrontation of the pre-election campaigns was accompanied by such factors as the European Football Championship, summer vacations and strong inflationary trends. Internet platforms and especially social networks have been more and more popular channels for politicians to communicate with voters. That is why the study focuses on the dynamics of the pre-election online communication. The object is the specifics of the internet connection between audiences and MP candidates during the three campaigns preceding the regular elections on 04.04.21 and the tow snap elections - on 11.07.2021 and 14.11.2021. The subject refers to the digital election messages of the leaders of the political forces, presented in their Facebook profiles. The methodology is a comparative analysis and empirical study conducted by an academic research team from the Faculty of Journalism and Mass Communication of Sofia University St. Kliment Ohridski. The scope of the research includes the political forces that passed the 4% electoral threshold. The results are indicative of those interested in digital political communication during social isolation during a pandemic. Keywords: parliamentary election campaign, Facebook, digital commu¬nication.

Do opportunistic snap elections affect political trust? Evidence from a natural experiment

AbstractSnap elections, those triggered by incumbents in advance of their original date in the electoral calendar, are a common feature of parliamentary democracies. In this paper, I ask: do snap elections influence citizens’ trust in the government? Theoretically, I argue that providing citizens with an additional means of endorsing or rejecting the incumbent – giving voters a chance to ‘have their say’ – can be interpreted by citizens as normatively desirable and demonstrative of the incumbent's desire to legitimise their agenda by (re)‐invigorating their political mandate. Leveraging the quasi‐experimental setting provided by the coincidental timing of the UK Prime Minister, Theresa May's, shock announcement of early elections in April 2017 with the fieldwork for the Eurobarometer survey, I demonstrate that the announcement of snap elections had a sizeable and significant positive effect on political trust. This trust‐inducing effect is at odds with the observed electoral consequences of the 2017 snap elections. Whilst incumbent‐triggered elections can facilitate net gains for the sitting government, May's 2017 gamble cost the Conservative Party their majority. Snap elections did increase political trust. These trust‐inducing effects were not observed symmetrically for all citizens. Whilst Eurosceptics and voters on the right of the ideological spectrum – those most inclined to support the incumbent May‐led Conservative government in 2017 – became more trusting, no such changes in trust were observed amongst left‐wing or non‐Eurosceptic respondents. This study advances the understanding of a relatively understudied yet not uncommon political phenomenon, providing causal evidence that snap elections have implications for political trust.

Head: A Perfect Storm: Covid-19, Snap Elections, and Archaic Legal Framework

The Covid-19 pandemic has tremendous implications for democracy worldwide. Emergency measures undertaken to combat the pandemic tend to demonstrate a trade-off between public health and fundamental democratic principles. The Caribbean is not immune from this. This paper examines how Covid-19, and the calling of a snap election in Barbados scheduled for January 19, 2022, when combined with archaic election rules, led to serious implications for the conduct of the election, specifically regarding the ability of citizens to vote. The paper is divided into five sections, beginning with an introductory section. The second section examines the implications of Covid-19 for democratic participation. The third section explores the legal framework for the conduct of elections in Barbados and the limitations of that legal framework. The penultimate section discusses the implications of the snap election for electoral participation and electoral integrity. The paper ends on the need for electoral reform in the country.

Electoral support and militants’ targeting strategies

Militant groups that are in armed conflict with a government often coexist with political parties that have ethnic or ideological connections to them. In this article, we explore the extent to which electoral support received by militant associated opposition parties and nationally incumbent political parties influences subnational variation in militant attacks. We argue, and empirically demonstrate, that militants strategically target localities where the levels of electoral support for the opposition party and the nationally incumbent party are close in an effort to negatively influence the electoral performance of the incumbent party. To illustrate this dynamic we examine subnational data from 1995 to 2015 Turkish legislative elections and attacks organized by the Kurdish militants within the same time period. We also examine the impact of June 2015 legislative elections on militant attacks until the snap elections in November 2015. Our empirical examination shows that militants target localities where electoral support for the governing party and Kurdish opposition party is close. Moreover, increase in violence negatively influences the electoral performance of the governing party. However, it does not consistently have a significant influence on the opposition. The findings illustrate that militants strategically choose the location of their attacks based on electoral dynamics, and attacks can pose an electoral challenge to the governing party.

“Global Britain”: from Idea to Implementation

The article explores a new British foreign policy agenda under the catchy slogan of “Global Britain”. Over time, the thesis of Global Britain has been viewed by the British leadership as a matrix for a new foreign policy. This slogan is still being filled with various conceptual elements and real political, trade and economic steps. The concept of Global Britain is analyzed through UK-US relations, the Commonwealth and cooperation with the EU in the period before and after Brexit. It is concluded that ideologically, Global Britain is not a set of fundamentally new ideas; rather, it is a reformatting with different accents of the previous foreign policy provisions (the well-known concept of the “Three Majestic Circles” by W. Churchill) and taking into account reducing its opportunities and leverage in the European Union and the European region as a whole and attempts to reorient the economy, trade and financial relations towards the dynamically developing countries of Asia and other regions. It is highlighted that the difficult and protracted negotiations on Britain‟s withdrawal from the EU and UK snap elections in 2019 slowed down the filling of the concept with real content. At present, the future of the British foreign policy largely depends on the course of the new US President, the UK-EU cooperation, and the impact of pandemic on British economy.

The Editorial Opinion of the Mainstream Media During the Catalan Elections of 2017: A Madrid–Barcelona Comparative Study

This article is a follow-up to an article published in the American Behavioral Scientist in 2017, titled “Shaping public opinion for confrontation: Catalan independence claims as represented in Spanish, Catalan, Valencian, and Basque Editorials.” At that time, our study was based on opinions expressed in mainstream newspaper editorials during two significant events in Catalonia’s recent history: the demonstration against the Spanish Constitutional Court ruling on the Statute of Autonomy of Catalonia of July 10, 2010, and the mass pro-independence demonstration held on September 11, 2012. The research sought to compare the press reports published in Catalonia, Valencia, and the Basque Country with those from the rest of Spain (primarily Madrid). This study applies the same methodology to analyze editorial pieces published during the campaign prior to the Catalan parliamentary elections on December 21, 2017. This date was historically significant for Catalonia because for the first time since the restoration of democracy following the Franco regime, the Spanish state had intervened in Catalonia’s self-rule by using Article 155 of the Spanish constitution to call snap elections. At the time, the lead candidates for the pro-independence parties were Oriol Junqueras (Republican Left of Catalonia) and Carles Puigdemont (Together for Catalonia), the former in prison and the latter abroad (or in “exile,” according to secessionists). In light of the opposing opinions and perspectives, we believe it is worth analyzing and comparing mainstream editorials from Catalonia (Barcelona) and Spain (Madrid) once again, to ascertain the dominant narratives used in both to explain the Catalan and Spanish position and frame of reference. We have extended the scope to include mainstream online as well as printed media with a view to achieving a better understanding and providing a wider overview of the public agenda and debate at that time.

What Are the Consequences of Snap Elections on Citizens’ Voting Behavior?

ABSTRACT In some democracies, the ruling party can strategically call a ‘snap’ (or ‘early’) election before the end of its mandate in order to maximise its chances of re-election. Little is known on the consequences of calling such an election. In this article, we contribute to this literature by analysing whether snap elections affect citizens’ voting behaviour. Does being angry at the decision of the incumbent government have an impact on citizens’ decision to vote or not to vote and/or their vote choice calculus? To answer these questions, we make use of two different and independently conducted surveys in Canada during a snap election. We do not find evidence that calling an early election reduces citizens’ likelihood to vote. However, when they do decide to vote, citizens that resent the decision to call an early election are substantially more likely to punish the incumbent government.

Säkerhet och sårbarhet efter Armeniens Sammetsrevolution: Hur ser eliterna på jämställdhet, mänskliga rättigheter och konfliktlösning?

Abstract: Security and Vulnerability After Armenia’s Velvet Revolution: Elite Perceptions on Gender Equality, Human Rights and Conflict ResolutionThe Velvet Revolution in spring 2018 and the snap elections that followed in December 2018 shook Armenia. This article examines the country’s new political elite and other central social elites, and their affective and evaluative beliefs with respect to human security, drawing on an elite survey conducted in 2017 and 2019, complemented by in-depth interviews. The aim is to shed light on whether Armenia’s elite-level political culture is headed for progressive change concerning the rights of disadvantaged groups, primarily women and sexual minorities – an expectation among the young and educated in Yerevan. This study finds that, as regards reducing vulnerability and increasing the security and freedom of choice for those traditionally disadvantaged in Armenian society, the values and judgments of the new elites have remained basically traditional.

Closer to election, more light: electricity supply and elections in a postconflict transition economy

ABSTRACTIn our paper, we analyse the supply of electricity in conjunction with elections in Kosovo. The results confirm our hypotheses that before scheduled (regular) parliamentary elections, the supply of electricity increases significantly above usual levels, but that this is not the case for early (snap) elections. This paper contributes to the Political Business Cycle (PBC) literature in two ways. It provides additional evidence of incumbent manipulation of non-classical policy instruments before elections. The paper contributes also to the PBC debate by revealing different incumbent strategies in scheduled and early elections, respectively, thus highlighting the importance of distinguishing between these types of elections in PBC research.

ШВЕДСКИЙ ЗАТОР (По поводу выборов‑2018)

The article examines results of the Swedish general election in September 2018, grave consequences of which have affected the ability of the Parliament to form a government and hereby to ensure continuity of exercising of the legislative and executive powers. The main outcome of the election was a relapse of a hung parliament with the antiimmigration Sweden Democrats holding the balance of power, while neither the centre-left nor the centre-right bloc is willing to do a deal with them. Compared to the results of the previous election of 2014, in 2018, the situation was aggravated by strengthening of the Sweden Democrats’ position in the riksdag and the establishment of equilibrium between the blocks that made it difficult to resolve the issue of a legitimate contender for the government formation. Although all the parties agree that the time of bloc politics has passed and cross-bloc cooperation is necessary, it has proved extremely complicated to implement this idea. Never before has process of forming the government been so timeconsuming. The original cause of the complication is to be sought in sharp rise of culturally different immigration since the beginning of the 21st century. This is the rise that generated the electorate’s demands for refusal to unrestricted immigration policy and for a party insisting on a serious restriction of the culturally different immigration. The Sweden Democrats have become such a party. Sweden will now contend with a fractured party-political landscape in which the center-right and center-left coalitions that have defined its politics for decades are deadlocked, and in the absence of the cross-bloc cooperation, the party-kingmaker is in a position to be a decisive force. All of this means that government crises and snap elections unknown to the country for many decades can become a usual thing. Thus, the Swedish election of 2018 has manifested that an accelerated multiculturalisation of a democratic society carries with itself acute political imbalances.

Elections and opportunistic budgetary policies in Greece

We consider the presence of electorally motivated cycles in Greece's fiscal policies from 1974 to 2011 and find strong evidence of preelectoral manipulation. In the election years the government's primary balance deteriorates via increased expenditures. The political budget cycle appears subdued in the post‐Maastricht treaty period, which implies tighter constraints on public finances. We demonstrate, however, that the opportunistic manipulation of public finances lives on, albeit through a different channel. In particular, we produce evidence of electoral effects in the composition of expenditures, with the expenses for compensation to employees increasing during election years. Furthermore, our results show that snap elections affect expenses positively, and prolonged incumbencies affect negatively the government's primary balance and revenues. Finally, no evidence of partisan effects exists in Greece's fiscal policies.

When populists meet technocrats. The Italian innovation in government formation

ABSTRACTThis article provides an analysis of how the 4 March Italian electoral results have affected the formation of the government. Numerically there existed four possible governing coalitions: Five Star Movement (M.5.S.) plus Centre-Right; M.5.S. plus Democratic Party; Centre-Right plus Democratic Party; M.5.S. plus League. Once the resigning secretary of the Democratic Party decided that his party had to go and remain in the opposition and the M.5.S. declared that they would not enter any coalition that included Silvio Berlusconi, politically only one coalition remained feasible. After a long process of negotiations revealing that their platforms could converge, Di Maio’s M.5.S. and Salvini’s League reached an agreement, identified the head of the government, drafted a list of Ministers. The president of the republic constitutionally legitimate refusal to appoint one of those ministers because of his anti-Euro and anti-European stances seemed to wreck the agreement. Also, in order to avoid a non-partisan government and, probably, snap elections, the M.5.S. and the League downgraded the controversial minister and proceed to the formation of the government led by neophyte law professor Giuseppe Conte. In the first week of June an unprecedented government duly received the confidence of the Italian parliament.