Energy transitions usually imply the integration of large shares of renewables in the grid. Microgrids have been put forward to address the intermittency of such sources while managing privacy and control complexity. For instance, in Switzerland, the regulatory framework for “self-consuming groups” has been softened as to facilitate the implementation of such solutions. However, the implications of these deployments for entrants and incumbents have not been thoroughly studied.We conducted a Micro-Delphi survey to explore these implications. It unveiled two benchmark business models for microgrids. Incumbent operators could shift to energy services provision through microgrid implementations, benefitting, namely, from efficiency improvements, but they face significant regulatory barriers. Entrants could also provide energy services or directly sell turnkey microgrid products, which face little regulatory barriers but lack exemplary business cases.All respondents underlined the uncertainty in the sector, with active research on business models and technologies making disruptions possible. To anticipate the threat of new entrants, incumbents could shift to a system based on hierarchical smart-grid architectures: besides the technical implementation of such a smart-grid, regulations and markets should be adapted for the coordination of privately-owned microgrids, enhancing the extraction of value propositions for both their owners and the overall system.
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