Small Open Economy New Research Articles

Commodity cycles and financial instability in emerging economies

Commodity-exporting economies display procyclicality with the price of commodity exports. However, the evidence for the relative importance of commodity price shocks for aggregate fluctuations remains inconclusive. Using Russian data from 2001 to 2018 we estimate a small open economy New Keynesian model with a banking system and leveraged domestic firms who default on their unsecured domestic debt. We show that allowing default rates to vary endogenously over the business cycle amplifies the estimated contribution of commodity price shocks. Endogenous default introduces time-varying wedges that amplify the response of commodity price shocks through demand and income effects rather than the relative price effects that are found in the country risk-premium, balance sheet, and financial accelerator channels. We find that the contribution of commodity prices to explaining fluctuations in GDP rises from 2.5 to 33.6% while for deposits and non-performing loans, it increases from 5.3% and 1.6% to 71.3% and 60.4%, respectively.

Monetary policy in practice: do central banks respond to movements in exchange rate and credit growth?

PurposeThis study examines the importance of exchange rate and credit growth fluctuations when designing monetary policy in Thailand. To this end, the authors construct a small open economy New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. The model encompasses several essential characteristics, including incomplete financial markets, incomplete exchange rate pass-through, deviations from the law of one price and a banking sector. The authors consider generalized Taylor rules, in which policymakers adjust policy rates in response to output, inflation, credit growth and exchange rate fluctuations. The marginal likelihoods are then employed to investigate whether the central bank responds to fluctuations in the exchange rate and credit growth.Design/methodology/approach This study constructs a small open economy DSGE model and then estimates the model using Bayesian methods.Findings The authors demonstrate that the monetary authority does target exchange rates, whereas there is no evidence in favor of incorporating credit growth into the policy rules. These findings survive various robustness checks. Furthermore, the authors demonstrate that domestic shocks contribute significantly to domestic business cycles. Although the terms of trade shock plays a minor role in business cycles, it explains the most significant proportion of exchange rate fluctuations, followed by the country risk premium shock.Originality/value This study is the first attempt at exploring the relevance of exchange rate and credit growth fluctuations when designing monetary policy in Thailand.

Emigration and fiscal austerity in a depression

What is the role of emigration in a deep recession when the government implements fiscal consolidation? To answer this question, we build a small open economy New Keynesian model with matching frictions and emigration. In simulations for the Greek Depression, fiscal austerity accounts for almost 1/3 of the GDP decline and 12% of emigration. A no-migration scenario under-predicts the bust in output by 1/6 and the rise in the debt-to-GDP ratio by 8 percentage points. The link between emigration and austerity is bi-directional. Emigration increases the labour tax hike and time required to reduce the debt ratio due to endogenous revenue leakage. In turn, tax hikes intensify emigration, while unproductive government spending cuts have a mild, ambiguous impact as they exhibit opposite demand and wealth effects. However, productive spending cuts display a fiscal multiplier above one, which incentivizes emigration. Emigration then amplifies the productive spending multiplier through internal demand. Similarly, the cumulative labour tax multiplier after five years rises from 0.86 without migration to 1.27 when the unemployed emigrate and 1.47 when both the unemployed and the employed emigrate.

Emigration and Fiscal Austerity in a Depression

This paper studies the role of emigration in a deep recession when the government implements fiscal consolidation. We build a small open economy New Keynesian model with matching frictions and emigration of the labour force. Our simulations for the Greek Depression show that fiscal austerity accounts for one-third of the output decline and more than 10% of emigration, with the rest attributed to the macro environment. A counterfactual without emigration underestimates the bust in output by one-fifth. The model uncovers a novel bi-directional link between emigration and austerity. Labour income tax hikes intensify emigration, while spending cuts have a mild impact whose sign depends on opposite demand and wealth effects. In turn, emigration increases the tax hike and time required for a given debt (% GDP) reduction due to endogenous revenue leakage. While emigration can mitigate the per capita output costs of tax hikes due to population loss, it amplifies the unemployment costs due to adverse demand effects outweighing the drop in labour supply over time.

Fiscal stress and monetary policy stance in oil-exporting countries

We documented that for some oil-exporting countries, the correlation between exchange rates and oil prices is strongly negative during periods of significant oil price drop but is much weaker during other periods. To interpret this time-varying asymmetric correlation, we develop and estimate a Markov-switching small open economy New Keynesian model with oil income as a source of government revenue. In particular, we allow monetary and fiscal policy coefficients to switch across “active” and “passive” regimes. Using data on Russia, our result shows that the policy combinations fluctuate. We find that active monetary policy isolates the exchange rate from oil price variations but changes to passively tolerate depreciation and inflation to support government debt when oil price drops place fiscal policy in a state of stress. Counterfactual policy experiments suggest policy regime switching is crucial to account for the observed asymmetric impact of oil prices on the exchange rate and that the transmission channels of oil price shocks differ significantly across policy regimes.

The Vietnamese business cycle in an estimated small open economy New Keynesian DSGE model

PurposeThe primary purpose of this paper is to investigate the sources of the business cycle fluctuations in Vietnam. To this end, the author develops a small open economy New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (SOE-NK-DSGE) model. Accordingly, this model includes various features, such as habit consumption, staggered price, price indexation, incomplete exchange-rate pass-through (ERPT), the failures of the law of one price (LOOP) and the uncovered interest rate parity. It is then estimated by using the Bayesian technique and Vietnamese data 1999Q1–2017Q1. Based on the estimated model, this paper analyzes the sources of the business cycle fluctuations in this emerging economy. Indeed, this research paper is the first attempt at developing and estimating the SOE-NK-DSGE model with the Bayesian technique for Vietnam.Design/methodology/approachA SOE-NK-DSGE model—Bayesian estimation.FindingsThis paper analyzes the sources of the business cycle fluctuations in Vietnam.Originality/valueThis research paper is the first attempt at developing and estimating the SOE-NK-DSGE model with the Bayesian technique for Vietnam.

The business cycle and monetary policy: what changed after the GFC?

To examine changes in the nature of the business cycle and its interaction with monetary policy we estimate a small open economy New Keynesian model using two time periods, one prior to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2007–2009 and one post the financial crisis. The model has the standard features of sticky prices and monopolistic competition. To fit the data the model also allows for households with a degree of habit persistence and a proportion of firms whose pricing decisions are simply to index to past inflation. Our results indicate the main difference pre- and post-GFC is that the economy has become less interest rate sensitive. Therefore, to stabilize the output and inflation, monetary policy actions need to be stronger than they were prior to the GFC. Moreover, the reduction in neutral interest rates post-GFC has resulted in additional transitional dynamics that have lowered inflation and output.

Monetary policy in an era of global supply chains

We study the implications of global supply chains for the design of monetary policy, using a small-open economy New Keynesian model with multiple stages of production. Within the family of simple monetary policy rules with commitment, a rule that targets separate producer price inflation at different production stages, in addition to output gap and real exchange rate, is found to deliver a higher welfare level than alternative policy rules. As an economy becomes more open, measured by export share, the optimal weight on the upstream inflation rises relative to that on the final stage inflation. If we have to choose among aggregate price indicators, targeting PPI inflation yields a smaller welfare loss than targeting CPI inflation alone. As the production chain becomes longer, the optimal weight on PPI inflation in the policy rule that targets both PPI and CPI inflation will also rise. A trade cost shock such as a rise in the import tariff can alter the optimal weights on different inflation variables.

Fiscal Stress and Monetary Policy Stance in Oil-Exporting Countries

We documented that for some oil-exporting countries, the correlation between exchange rates and oil prices is strongly negative during periods of significant oil price drop but is much weaker during other periods. To interpret this time-varying asymmetric correlation, we develop and estimate a Markov-switching small open economy New Keynesian model with oil income as a source of government revenue. In particular, we allow monetary and fiscal policy coefficients to switch across and passive regimes. Using data on Russia, our result shows that the policy combinations fluctuate. We find that active monetary policy isolates the exchange rate from oil price variations but changes to passively tolerate depreciation and inflation to support government debt when oil price drops place fiscal policy in a state of stress. Counterfactual policy experiments suggest policy regime switching is crucial to account for the observed asymmetric impact of oil prices on the exchange rate and that the transmission channels of oil price shocks differ significantly across policy regimes.

What do Latin American inflation targeters care about? A comparative Bayesian estimation of central bank preferences

This paper employs Bayesian estimation to uncover the central bank preferences of the five Latin American inflation targeting countries with floating exchange rates: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru. The target weights of each country’s central bank loss function are estimated using a medium-scale small open economy New Keynesian model with imperfect exchange-rate pass-through under either complete or incomplete international asset markets. Bayesian model comparison selects: (i) unambiguously the complete markets model version; (ii) the model specification with explicit concern for real exchange rate stabilization, with the exception of Peru. Our results suggest that the central banks of Mexico and Peru are closest to following a strict inflation targeting regime, whereas Brazil, Chile, and Colombia also assign a sizeable weight to output gap and real exchange rate stabilization. Finally, the estimated preference weights for each central bank are shown to credibly reflect their legal mandates.

Commodity Cycles and Financial Instability in Emerging Economies

Commodity-exporting economies display procyclicality with the price of commodity exports. However, the evidence for the relative importance of commodity price shocks for aggregate fluctuations remains inconclusive. Using Russian data from 2001-2018 we estimate a small open economy New Keynesian model with a banking system and leveraged domestic firms who default on their unsecured domestic debt. Default rates vary endogenously over the business cycle and amplify the estimated contribution of commodity price shocks. As the effect of macroprudential policies depends on the type of the shock, optimal combinations of policy tools depend on the estimated relative importance of shocks.

Trend inflation and macroeconomic stability in a small open economy

This paper estimates a small open economy New Keynesian model for Australia with positive trend inflation while allowing for multiple equilibria. We first show the extent to which positive trend inflation can shrink the determinacy region. We then conduct a Bayesian estimation over two separate periods: from 1983Q1 to 1993Q1, covering the pre-inflation-targeting regime, and from 1993Q2 to 2018Q4, covering the inflation-targeting regime. We find that Australian monetary policy before the adoption of inflation-targeting permitted multiple equilibria and self-fulfilling inflation expectations to arise, resulting in exacerbated macroeconomic volatility. The implementation of inflation-targeting in Australia in the early 1990s successfully eradicated equilibrium multiplicity and sunspot shocks, and thereby drove the economy towards greater stability.

Macroprudential Policy and Financial (In)Stability Analysis in the Russian Federation

We study a small open economy New Keynesian model calibrated to the Russian economy with a banking system that trades secured and unsecured debt. Firms endogenously default on their unsecured debt obligations over the business cycle. We examine the effectiveness of four alternative countercyclical policies that respond to the growth in unsecured credit in the economy. The lean-against-the-wind monetary policy is the most effective in simultaneously affecting the real economy and stabilizing the banking system in response to both oil price and total factor productivity shocks. The countercyclical deposit reserve requirement was found to play a stabilizing role following an oil shock, while the countercyclical capital adequacy requirement helped to stabilize the banking system after a total factor productivity shock.

Capital flows and the business cycle

As argued by Blanchard et al. (2015), there is a wide disconnect between the empirical evidence about the effect on output growth of global shocks to capital inflows and the theoretical predictions of standard open economy macroeconomic models. While the empirical evidence suggests that such shocks are expansionary, theory predicts that they should be contractionary. The small open economy New Keynesian model is no exception. In this paper, we build an open economy macroeconomic model that predicts that global shocks to capital inflows can indeed be expansionary. The framework consists of an extension of the open economy New Keynesian model based on a simple financial friction, and it can be expressed as a system of a few log-linear dynamic relationships. We are able to rationalize a number of puzzling facts, such as the higher output accompanied by currency appreciation that follows global shocks to capital flows, and the positive correlation between gross inflows and gross outflows.

Monetary-fiscal policies interactions and optimal rules in Egypt

Purpose This paper aims to estimate a New Keynesian small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for Egypt using Bayesian techniques and data for the period FY2004/2005:Q1-FY2015/2016:Q4 to assess monetary and fiscal policy interactions and their impact on economic stabilization. Outcomes of monetary and fiscal authority commitment to policy instruments, interest rate, government spending and taxes, are evaluated using Taylor-type and optimal simple rules. Design/methodology/approach The study extends the stylized micro-founded small open economy New Keynesian DSGE model, proposed by Lubik and Schorfheide (2007), by explicitly introducing fiscal policy behavior into the model (Fragetta and Kirsanova, 2010 and Çebi, 2011). The model is calibrated using quarterly data for Egypt on key macroeconomic variables during FY2004/2005:Q1-FY2015/2016:Q4; and Bayesian methods are used in estimation. Findings The results show that monetary and fiscal policy instruments in Egypt contribute to economic stability through their effects on inflation, output and debt stock. The monetary policy Taylor rule estimates reveal that the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) attaches significant importance to anti-inflationary policy and (to a lesser extent) to output targeting but responds weakly to nominal exchange rate variations. CBE decisions are significantly influenced by interest rate smoothing. Egyptian fiscal policy has an important role in output and government debt stabilization. Additionally, the fiscal authority chooses pro-cyclical government spending and counter-cyclical tax policies for output stabilization. Again, past values of the fiscal instruments are influential in the evolution of the future fiscal policy-making process. Originality/value A few studies have examined the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy in Egypt within a unified framework. The presented paper integrates the monetary and fiscal policy analysis within a unified dynamic general equilibrium open economy rational expectations framework. Without such a framework, it would not be easy to jointly analyze monetary and fiscal transmission mechanisms for output, inflation and debt. Also, it would be neither possible to contrast the outcome of monetary and fiscal authorities commitment to a simple Taylor instrument rule vis-à-vis optimal policy outcomes nor to assess the behavior of monetary and fiscal agents in macroeconomic stability in context of an active/passive policy decisions framework.

Indian Fiscal Policy: A DSGE Primer

This paper reviews contemporary literature on theoretical modelling of fiscal policy in India, and highlights the inadequacy of studies focusing on fiscal issues through the lens of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) modelling. Next, in order to stimulate further discussion, the paper proposes a ‘primer’ DSGE model calibrated for the Indian economy with focus on exploring fiscal policy transmission, and the economy-wide impact of shocks in various fiscal instruments is evaluated and compared. Finally, drawing from this primer model, the paper discusses areas of future research in context of recent developments in India’s fiscal policy framework. This includes rethinking the modelling of the fiscal rule, and honing the estimation methodology. The paper proposes a small open economy New Keynesian DSGE framework, with the building blocs of households, producing, assembling, and investment firms, government and the central bank. The government has a number of fiscal instruments at its disposal – government consumption, government investment, transfers, public employment, consumption tax, and labor income tax – governed by a fiscal rule for fiscal deficit. The parameters are calibrated from data, past studies on the Indian economy, and formulation from steady state relationships and the model is simulated with the motivation of examining the impact of fiscal shocks. The study finds that while output and employment increases in response to positive spending shocks, the impact on consumption is mixed, while private investment stimuli uniquely leads to increase in private investment. The impact of tax stimuli differ – a negative consumption tax shock is disinflationary and positively impacts consumption, while the study observes asymmetric impact of negative shock in labor income tax cut, given its limited tax coverage. From the perspective of policy relevance, these results highlight the pros and cons of various forms of fiscal intervention based on the nuances of their policy transmission. Within spending shocks, public investment stimulus avoids crowding out of private investment, while a cut in consumption tax offers a more direct impact on household consumption. Finally, while the model herein offers an intuitive framework for assessing Indian fiscal policy transmission using DSGE modelling, the paper concludes by outlining areas of further research.

Forecasting output growth using a DSGE-based decomposition of the South African yield curve

Evidence in favor of the ability of the term spread to forecast economic growth of the South African economy is non-existent. Presuming that this could be due to the term spread aggregating, and hence loosing out on important, information contained in the expected spread and the term premium, we: (i) Develop an estimable Small Open Economy New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (SOENKDSGE) model of the in ation targeting South African economy; (ii) Use the SOENKDSGE model, estimated using Bayesian methods, to decompose the term spread into an expected spread and the term premium over the quarterly period of 2000:01-2014:04, and; (iii) Use a linear predictive regression framework to analyze the out-of-sample forecasting ability of the aggregate term spread, as well as the expected spread and term premium. Our forecasting results fail to detect forecasting gains from the aggregate term spread and also the term premium, but the expected spread is found to contain important information in forecasting the output growth over short- to medium-run horizons, over the out-of-sample period of 2004:01-2014:04. In other words, we confirm our presumption, and in the process highlight the importance of the forward looking component of the term spread, i.e., the expected spread, in forecasting output growth of South Africa.

TECHNOLOGY SHOCKS AND BUSINESS CYCLES IN INDIA

In this paper, we develop a small open economy New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to understand the relative importance of two key technology shocks, Hicks neutral total factor productivity (TFP) shock and investment specific technology (IST) shock for an emerging market economy like India. In addition to these two shocks, our model includes three demand side shocks such as fiscal spending, home interest rate, and foreign interest rate. Using a Bayesian approach, we estimate our DSGE model with Indian annual data for key macroeconomic variables over the period of 1971–2010, and for subsamples of pre-liberalization (1971–1990) and post-liberalization (1991–2010) periods. Our study reveals three main results. First, output correlates positively with TFP, but negatively with IST. Second, TFP and IST shocks are the first and the second most important contributors to aggregate fluctuations in India. In contrast, the demand side disturbances play a limited role. Third, although TFP plays a major role in determining aggregate fluctuations, its importance vis-à-vis IST has declined during the post liberalization era. We find that structural shifts of nominal friction and relative home bias for consumption to investment in the post-liberalization period can account for the rising importance of the IST shocks in India.

Post-2008 Brazilian fiscal policy: an interpretation through the analysis of fiscal multipliers

Abstract The global crisis that erupted in 2007 led many countries to embark on countercyclical fiscal policies as a way to cushion the blow of a depressed aggregate demand. Advocates of discretionary measures emphasize that fiscal policy can indeed stimulate the economy. The main goal of this work is to assess whether the fiscal policies pursued by the Brazilian government in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis, succeeded in bringing the economy back on track in a sustainable fashion. To this end, the fiscal multipliers of five different shocks are studied in a small open-economy New Keynesian framework. Our results point to the government spending and public investment as the most effective fiscal tools for combating the crisis. However, the highest fiscal multiplier turned out to be the one associated with excise tax reductions.

Debt Overhang and the Macroeconomics of Carry Trade

The depreciation of the Hungarian forint in 2009 left Hungarian borrowers with a skyrocketing value of foreign currency debt. The resulting losses worsened debt overhang in to debt-ridden firms and eroded bank capital. Therefore, although Hungarian banks had partially isolated their balance sheets from exchange rate risk by extending FX-denominated loans, the ensuing debt overhang in borrowing firms exposed the banks to elevated credit risk. Firms, households and banks had run up the open FX-positions hoping to profit from low foreign rates in the run-up to Euro adoption. This example of carry trade in emerging Europe motivates our analysis of currency mismatch losses in different sectors in the economy, and the macroconsequences of reallocating losses from the corporate to the banking sector ex post. We develop a small open economy New Keynesian DSGE model that accounts for the implications of domestic currency depreciation for corporate debt overhang and incorporates an active banking sector with financial frictions. The model, calibrated to the Hungarian economy, shows that, in periods of unanticipated depreciation, allocating currency mismatch losses to the banking sector generates a milder recession than if currency mismatch is placed at credit constrained firms. The government can intervene to reduce aggregate losses even further by recapitalizing banks and thus mitigating the effects of currency mismatch losses on credit supply.