Abstract
Commodity-exporting economies display procyclicality with the price of commodity exports. However, the evidence for the relative importance of commodity price shocks for aggregate fluctuations remains inconclusive. Using Russian data from 2001-2018 we estimate a small open economy New Keynesian model with a banking system and leveraged domestic firms who default on their unsecured domestic debt. Default rates vary endogenously over the business cycle and amplify the estimated contribution of commodity price shocks. As the effect of macroprudential policies depends on the type of the shock, optimal combinations of policy tools depend on the estimated relative importance of shocks.
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