Just flying over the North Sea, from Stavanger to Aberdeen, is definitely an interesting time to contemplate what the future of offshore drilling could be. Not that long ago, this so-called mature region was seen as declining, and drilling activity was slowly decreasing. In recent months, anyone trying to find an available offshore rig there (as in many other places indeed) knows that this vision of decline must be put aside, and for a long time, he/she will be very cautious with a prognosis about the future. One thing that probably will remain is the pressure on drilling engineers and drilling teams as a whole to control, or at least mitigate, well costs. Several methods can be envisaged, which might be very different. Of course, the market could be the first mitigating agent when a new equilibrium point will be reached. But does this industry really function on equilibrium points? And, for instance, is there any ceiling or minimum for deep-offshore-rig rates? A first means could be to increase pressure on rig efficiency. We have been continuously and successfully improving technology, rig automation, and rig-time management for years. Still, there certainly is room for such improvements, and maybe a stopwatch will be the first driller's tool. Another means is, of course, based on reducing our needs to the minimum. Even though this method has not always (or not yet) been successful from a business point of view (for instance, the slender-well concept), there are still interesting concepts that someday could introduce real breakthroughs. Some "drilling-from-the-mudline" concepts are probably among them, and the current mood for small-diameter drilling could be part of their success. Eventually, beyond these cost challenges, new technical challenges also will have to be addressed. Our desire for fossil fuels will lead us to envisage producing such difficult reservoirs that, today, are often produced only onshore (e.g., heavy oils, tight reservoirs, and smaller accumulations). These challenges might once more put pressure on well costs so that, in the end, we may still be running after market equilibrium for a long time. Offshore Drilling and Completion additional reading available at the SPE eLibrary: www.spe.org SPE 101080 "Design and Performance Evaluation of an Ultradeepwater Subsea Blowout-Preventor Control System Using Shape-Memory Alloy Actuators" by N. Ma, U. of Houston, et al. SPE 98894 "Large-Scale Feasibility Determination of Storing and Transporting a Cement Slurry Below Deck Under Maritime Conditions" by D. Doherty, SPE, BJ Services, et al. SPE 99005 "First Hyperstatic Riser Joint Field Tested for Deep Offshore Drilling" by Y. Poirette, SPE, Inst. Français du Pétrole, et al. SPE 105649 "CIDS to Orlan: Transformation and Startup of Sakhalin's Ice-Resistant Drilling Platform" by A.M. Higgins, SPE, ExxonMobil Development Co., et al.
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