Abstract Benign adenomatous colon polyps are thought to be transformed into cancers through the stepwise accumulation of mutations. However, not all polyps progress. A significant number remain static in size, regress, or resolve completely. The mechanisms underlying these differential fates are unknown, and currently there are no biological characteristics that can reliably predict which polyps will grow or progress into invasive cancer. To determine the mutational landscape, targeted next generation sequencing was performed on a unique collection of small (6-9mm) colorectal polyps with known growth rates based on interval imaging with CT colonography. To determine spatial location of identified mutations within a polyp, micro-dissection was performed followed by quantitative PCR to validate low frequency mutations. The mutational landscape of small polyps is varied both within and among individual polyps. Polyps carried 0-3 pathogenic mutations with the most frequent being in APC (67%, 32/48), KRAS/NRAS (17%, 8/48), BRAF (17%, 8/48), FBXW7 (10%, 5/48), and TP53 (8%, 4/48). Additionally, 13% (6/48) contained driver mutations at varied mutant allele frequencies, indicating the presence of subclonal populations. In silico modeling of tumor growth was used to determine the likely size at which additional driver mutations arose in order to observe those varied frequencies. This model of colon tumor growth was adapted so that mutations occur with a given probability of 10−5, which may change the fitness positively or negatively, and the lineage from these mutant subpopulations was tracked during tumor growth. In silico polyps were sectioned and mutant allele frequency was recorded and compared to the frequencies observed from the targeted sequencing of human polyps. Contrary to the slow step-wise accumulation of mutations theory, these data indicate small colonic polyps can have multiple pathogenic mutations in crucial driver genes that arise early in a tumor's existence. Understanding the molecular pathway of tumorigenesis and clonal evolution in polyps that are at risk for progressing to invasive cancers will allow us to begin to better predict which polyps may be more likely to progress into adenocarcinomas and which patients are predisposed to developing advanced disease. Citation Format: Chelsie K. Sievers, Luli Zou, Perry J. Pickhardt, Kristina A. Matkowskyj, Dawn Albrecht, David H. Kim, Fouad J. Moawad, Brooks D. Cash, Mark Reichelderfer, Michael A. Newton, Richard B. Halberg. Modeling the rise of intratumoral heterogeneity in growing, static, and regressing human colorectal polyps. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 107th Annual Meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research; 2016 Apr 16-20; New Orleans, LA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2016;76(14 Suppl):Abstract nr 151.
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