Slowdown In Growth Research Articles

Revisiting India’s Export Potential: Modern Gravity Model Approach

The high contribution of India’s exports to its gross domestic product underscores the vulnerability of macroeconomic shocks like the COVID-19 in terms of losses in export revenues, increased cost of import and slowdown in growth. The scale of impact also depends on the degree of trade concentration, geographical expansion, export potential and strategic relationship of a country with its trading partners. This article aims to examine these factors using the modern gravity model approach. It also intends to analyse the export intensity and export potential of India with its 25 major trading partners. The results are estimated by using the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood method for the period 1991–2020. The results show that the exports between two nations are remarkably impacted by the trade cost and combined economic size. Furthermore, variables like population and islands are introduced in the extended gravity model, which positively impacts India’s exports. The direction of India’s exports witnessed a reversal in trend towards the traditional export destinations in 2020 compared to emerging countries from 2010 onwards. The export potential index also explains that India has the scope to enhance the export potential with developed nations as advocated by the Heckscher–Ohlin model. JEL Codes: F14, F49

Effect of Exchange Rate on Domestic Price Level in Nigeria

Nigeria experienced significant depreciation of her currency during the specified period of this study, mainly due to factors such as falling oil prices, external economic conditions such as slowdown in global economic growth, trade tensions which led to capital outflows from emerging markets including markets in Nigeria, tightening of global monetary policy which affected capital flows to these emerging markets, coupled with domestic macroeconomic challenges like concerns over policy consistency, governance issues and security challenges, capital flight and weakened investors’’ confidence. These conditions collectively created an adverse environment for the Nigerian economy, leading to the depreciation of Naira. Consequently, this study set out to achieve the main objective of investigating on a more recent basis, effects of exchange rate on domestic price level in Nigeria. The period covered was from January 2015 through December 2022. The study adopted the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and the variables included consumer price inflation, nominal exchange rate, import prices, international crude oil prices and real output growth. We found insignificant positive impact of the nominal exchange rate on consumer price inflation in Nigeria. The import prices also proved a significant effect on consumer price inflation in Nigeria. the study recommends that Governments at all levels in the country should encourage and support the innovative ideas of business firms and individuals. This will support local production, hence, there can be substitution of imported goods for domestically produced goods and the exchange rate will be stable.

External public debt management during the wartime: Case of Ukraine

Public debt plays a crucial role in the economic development of many countries, the effective management and servicing of the external public debt have become a priority in the financial and economic policy of the state, ensuring the stability of its development. The article aims to develop Ukraine’s external public debt management system during the wartime. As a result of the analysis, the key negative consequences of the impact of external debt growth on Ukraine`s economic security were determined, i.e. economic growth slowdown, increased dependence on creditors, increased costs of the public debt servicing, significant reduction in domestic consumption, etc. The developed external public debt management system in the framework of state economic and financial security includes relevant subsystems, principles, functions, objects and subjects, methods. It was substantiated that the appropriate external public debt management system during wartime in Ukraine requires the following additional subsystems: subsystem of crisis planning and response, subsystem of external debt settlement and subsystem for ensuring international cooperation.

Social policy of the state and its impact on the unemployment rate in Kazakhstan

The process of formation of the social support system in Kazakhstan is associated with profound socio-economic reforms. The latest policy documents adopted in Kazakhstan are aimed not only at developing human capital, improving the quality and standard of living of the population, but also at strengthening the socio-economic protection of members of society. Conducting an adequate social policy aimed at improving the quality of life of the population is one of the most important functions of the state. The purpose of this study is to consider the problems of unemployment and poverty, social inequality, as well as the impact of public policy measures to reduce it. The methods of research were review, generalization, statistical and quantitative analysis. The information base of the study was the data of the National Statistical Bureau, which reflected the main problems of domestic social security. In the course of the study it was revealed that the implementation of state projects to increase incomes of the population did not bring the expected effect. The study showed a decrease in the real income of the population with an increase in the dynamics of nominal income, a high proportion of income inequality between the rural and urban population, and this is associated with a general slowdown in economic growth and rising inflation. In addition, the study revealed a high proportion of the self-employed population, who are unfortunately engaged in unproductive activities, which ultimately leads to an increase in poverty. In these conditions it is necessary to systematize measures of social support of the population, implementation of state projects, equalizing incomes of the population.

Secular stagnation and monopoly capitalism

The paper opens with a brief review of economic growth in industrialized economies over the past four decades, indicating a general slow-down in growth. This is followed by a brief review of the mainstream views on ‘secular stagnation’. The major section of the paper is based on outlining elements of approaches to secular stagnation within the monopoly capital literature associated with authors such as Steindl, Kalecki and Cowling, followed by consideration of evidence in broad support of those dimensions. This includes the recent, generally upward, trends in industrial concentration, profit margins, and relationship with investment and innovation. Brief remarks are made on the effects of financialization, globalization and climate change on economic growth.

ТРАНСФОРМАЦІЯ СВІТОВОЇ ФІНАНСОВОЇ АРХІТЕКТУРИ ПІД ВПЛИВОМ ФІНАНСОВОЇ ГЛОБАЛІЗАЦІЇ

At the current stage of the evolution of the global economy, there is an intensive increase in the pace of financial globalization (FG), which leads to qualitative and quantitative changes in its institutional environment. In parallel, the interaction and interdependence of all components of theglobal financial system is being restructured. Thus, the purpose of the article is to analyze the transformational dynamics of the world financial architecture (WFA) under the influence of financial globalization and to develop a scientific and practical mechanism for regulating WFA transformations in the context of financial integration. To achieve this goal, the author generalizes and expands the scope of study of financial globalization (its positive and negative effects) as a key factor influencing the transformation of the WFA. In this context, the average daily cash flow on the Forex market, general flows (inflows and outflows) of direct foreign investments, export-import operations on international markets, and the pace of development of financial technological innovations (FinTech) were investigated. To make the study more thorough, the author analyzed the transformational processes of WFA after the global economic and financial crisis of 2007-2009, which led to a number of structural shifts and led to the emergence of alternative stabilization mechanisms and sources of international liquidity. In addition, modern trends in the development of the world financial architecture in the conditions of the FG were revealed. Thus, the COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the interconnectedness of financial markets and the vulnerability of economies to external shocks and caused a sharp decline in stock market indices, significant fluctuations in exchange rates and general economic instability. Even more devastating consequences are threatened by a full-scale invasion of russia into Ukraine, which caused a significant slowdown in the economic growth of many countries due to a large-scale break in international production and trade ties, changes in the direction of FDI flows, aggravation of crises on international markets, in particular food and energy, and an increase in labor migration, world inflation. The result of the conducted research was the development of a mechanism for the transformation of the world financial architecture in the conditions of financial globalization. Thus, it was proposed to single out seven main vectors of the transformation of the world financial architecture, including: strengthening of global economic governance; improving the financial safety net; improvement of the political and regulatory framework of the financial system; easing the debt burden and reducing the cost of government borrowing; strengthening regulation and supervision of banking and non-banking financial institutions; restructuring of the global tax system, increasing international public development.

Technical change and the postwar slowdown in Soviet economic growth in a long run perspective, 1885–2019

AbstractThe existing studies usually find that technical change was very important in constraining the economic growth of the Soviet Union. While these studies have been successful in quantifying the extent of technical change, they have been less successful in quantifying its nature. This paper moves a step closer to probing the essence of Soviet efficiency by splitting the aggregate technical change into its subcomponents – namely, capital and labour efficiency. I find that the Soviet Union registered strong labour efficiency gains during most of the postwar period, converging towards the labour efficiency level of the global frontier – the US. Labour efficiency growth did decrease over time, but labour efficiency was not a primary cause of Soviet growth retardation. That retardation was instead caused by a decline in capital efficiency. At a disaggregated level, I find that the decrease in capital efficiency was driven by structures. I hypothesize that labour shortages and an inadequate investment policy resulted in a large stock of unfinished, and hence idle, structures, distorting Soviet economic growth.

Strategic instruments for the growth of the industrial sector of the economy in the conditions of the sixth big Kondratiev cycle

An analysis of global trends in economic and technological development shows that there are all signs that the driving force behind the rise of the sixth major Kondratiev cycle has started working – digital technologies of the fourth technological order, which is initiated by the emergence and implementation of innovations in production processes, defi ned as NBIC technologies (convergence of four industries knowledge related to nanotechnologies, biotechnologies, information and cognitive technologies). However, the currently observed slowdown in economic growth rates (both global and national) leads to the need to fi nd growth points, the fi xation and development of which would make it possible to extract the maximum benefi t from the use of digital technologies. The purpose of this article is to identify tools that can ensure the progressive development of the industrial sector of the national economy in the conditions of the predicted crisis and recession.The article analyzes the dynamics of the world’s leading economies, shows that the industrial growth index is dominant in the formation of the gross domestic product of the national economy. It is suggested that one of the key factors infl uencing the slowdown in economic growth is the “digital divide” – the period of time that passes after the emergence of technologies on the market and the beginning of their commercial operation. To eliminate the “digital divide”, it is proposed to use digital platforms that provide the possibility of confl ict-free evolutionary redesign of existing enterprise processes and intelligent integration of implemented solutions in a single information space, due to which there is a signifi cant increase in effi ciency and production growth. At the same time, it is noted that, unlike previous technological paradigms, the modern economy is characterized by the possibility of using digital solutions of equal functionality at enterprises of various industries, it is only necessary to set up routes for the execution of end-to-end business processes, taking into account the specifi cs of production. Examples of a universal corporate digital platform that solve such problems are given.

Empirical Study and Reflection on the Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Chinese A-share Market--Based on Fama French Five-factor Model

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused severe imbalances in the global economy and intensified stock market turmoil worldwide. Based on Fama-French five-factor model, this paper studies Chinas A-share market changes before and after the epidemic. The stocks treated by ST (special treatment) and * ST (delisting warning) are screened, excluding companies and banking stocks with shortlisting time. The equities are finally divided into groups using the two-by-three grouping approach. According to the median of the total market value of stocks, the entire sample is separated into two categories: modest market value (S) and large market value (B). The samples are classified into three categories based on the book-to-market ratio's 30% and 70% quantiles: high (H), medium (N), and low (L). Comparing the different times of the impact of the five factors on stock earnings is conducive to explaining the changes in the factors affecting the stock price of listed companies before and after the epidemic. It is possible to analyze which factors have declined and fluctuated after the epidemic, resulting in a decline in stock prices, a slowdown in the growth of listed companies, or even a recession. The analysis of the five-factor model can clarify which factors have led to the decline in stock prices after the beginning of the epidemic, which is conducive to the formulation of related policies and plans by listed companies and makes up for the decline in stock prices and the slowdown in company growth caused by the corresponding decline, which has apparent practical value.

PREVENTING STUNTING IN INFANTS AND TODDLERS MATTERS

Stunting or short stature is defined as a condition where the length or height has a z-score below -2SD based on growth standards, depending on age. Stunting can also be interpreted as a condition of children under the age of five who, due to chronic malnutrition (since the womb and in the first days after birth), develop stunted growth that does not appear until the age of 2 years. The most critical intervention to reduce stunt prevalence occurs in the first 1000 days of life in children under the age of five or before the age of 2, as children aged 2 to 3 experience a slowdown in growth and catch up with children's Growth opportunities at this age are lower than children aged 6 to 24 months. The prevalence of stunting is 19.7% in Central Jakarta, second only to North Jakarta. One of the actions that can be taken to prevent stunting is to provide information and education to mothers at Posyandu Dahlia in Paseban on the definition of stunting, effects, dangers, and how to prevent and correct stunting in children under the age of 2. With increasing knowledge one hopes to be able to prevent stunting. From the results of the pre- and post-tests conducted on 45 participants, there was an 83% increase in knowledge. This demonstrates that this health promotion intervention has succeeded in expanding knowledge and providing participants with knowledge benefits related to stunting.

Can aging population affect economic growth through the channel of government spending?

The demographic transition toward an aging society is a global phenomenon. An increase in the aging population directly challenges the government positions and public expenditures as it directly affects a country's aggregate demand and, thus, the country's income level. This paper investigates the impact of an aging population on the size of government spending. Using an updated dataset of 87 countries from 1996 to 2017, we study the aggregate level and each composition of government expenditures. Furthermore, we investigate whether the aging population influences the allocation of government spending toward different categories and economic growth changes. The paper uses the generalized method of moment (GMM) model for the dynamic panel data analysis to address the endogeneity problem. Our main findings suggest that an increase in the old-age population significantly induces higher aggregate government spending but only in developed countries and in particular on the spending in the social protection and environment categories. However, the aging society leads to lower government expenditure on education. Other critical findings reveal that changes in some compositions of government spending toward cultural expenditures impact growth slowdown, while an allocation toward education spending positively impacts economic growth.

Assessment of the Impact of Fiscal Policy on Economic Growth in the Republic of Armenia

Fiscal policy plays a crucial role in ensuring economic growth and development in the country and overcoming economic recessions. The subject of the research is the tax system in the Republic of Armenia. The study aims to identify and assess the impact of the fiscal policy on economic growth in the Republic of Armenia. Since the global financial crisis of 2008, the Armenian economy has been in stagnation, reaching pre-crisis GDP levels only in 2018. Both theory and practice point to the ambiguous nature of the impact of fiscal policy on economic growth. At the same time, the 2020 crisis caused by the pandemic exacerbated the situation by focusing the attention of economists on fiscal policy to stimulate the real sector of the economy, which justifies the relevance of the current study. The paper’s novelty lies in assessing the impact of certain types of taxes on the economic growth rates in Armenia. To achieve the goal of the study, the authors use such methods as a comparative analysis of foreign studies and systemic and statistical analysis. To econometrically assess the impact of taxes on economic growth in the country, a vector autoregression (VAR) model was applied. As a result of the study, the authors found that both tax regulation in general and the individual taxes are restrictive in nature and have a negative impact on economic growth in the country. The authors conclude that such a restrictive policy has led to a slowdown in economic growth in the Republic of Armenia over the past decades

Is environmental innovation the key to addressing the dual economic and sustainability challenge of the Italian economy?

AbstractThe effects of rising global temperatures are becoming increasingly evident, with observable consequences such as the melting of polar ice caps, the occurrence of cyclones and hurricanes, desertification, and the destruction of ecosystems. The Italian economy is particularly vulnerable to the climate challenge, due to the prolonged slowdown in economic growth and the high unemployment that have plagued this economy over the last decades. Environmental innovation could be the key to tackling climate change, while at the same time promoting growth and employment. A comprehensive assessment of the effects of environmental innovation on growth and employment at the macroeconomic level should consider the compensation mechanisms associated with productivity gains, the substitution effects between more or less polluting goods, and the role of demand and consumer preferences. However, a comprehensive analysis that includes all of these direct and indirect effects of environmental innovation at the macroeconomic level is still lacking. This study aims to bridge this gap, introducing a structuralist computable general equilibrium model to simulate the effects of an increase in productivity and a change in consumer preferences in favour of less polluting industries in the Italian economy over the period 1995–2050. The results of the simulations indicate that a change in consumer preferences in favour of environmentally friendly goods in the Italian context may be more effective than an increase in productivity in stimulating demand, growth, and employment.

MORTGAGE LENDING MARKET IN EUROPE: DYNAMICS AND FEATURES

The housing market is an important part of any country's economy. The article analyses the main trends in the development of the mortgage lending market in Europe: general dynamics, development of individual segments, lending volumes, interest rates, construction volumes, resource prices, etc. The purpose of this article is to analyse current trends in the development of the housing market. Graphical and statistical analysis methods are used to visualise the trends in investment in residential construction in Europe in 2020-2022, to identify the main external and internal factors behind the market's decline, and to outline development prospects for the coming years. practical implications. Practical implications. The housing investment market is under the influence of new external destabilising factors (pandemic, military aggression), as well as the pressure of factors such as the economic crisis, widespread digitalisation, the fight against black markets, etc. The results of the analysis have identified the main factors currently affecting the European property market: the aftermath of the invasion of Ukraine, a sharp rise in energy prices, rising inflation and interest rates, a slowdown in economic activity and political uncertainty at global, regional and national level. In general, the development of the housing investment market is characterised by the following trends: high interest rates on mortgage loans; tightening of financing conditions and bank standards, reducing the availability of mortgage loans; slowdown in economic growth and rapid inflation; higher prices for energy and building materials, construction costs and, as a result, an increase in house prices; slowdown in bank lending to households buying houses. Value/originality. An urgent task of modern economic science and practice is the search for ways to attract additional financial resources, mechanisms to ease the financial burden of payments for investors, to reduce and distribute investment risks. It is these circumstances that have determined the growth of the housing investment market segment associated with such innovative forms of investment as digital lending and crowdfunding. According to forecasts, the global digital lending market will grow by up to 12% per year until 2026.

State‐owned enterprises and entrusted lending: Economic growth and business cycles in China

AbstractA key economic structure in China is the co‐existence of state‐owned enterprises (SOEs) being bank‐favored firms as well as policy tools, and more productive private firms who can borrow from SOEs through entrusted lending. We explore macroeconomic implications of such a structure in China. Our findings suggest SOEs dampen output volatility at the cost of productivity volatility. In contrast, the healthy development of entrusted lending dampens variations of both output and productivity by reallocating credits between firms. Focusing on the recent growth slowdown in China, we further show conducive effects of entrusted lending on economic growth by mitigating capital misallocation.

The Effect of Human Resource Competence on Entrepreneurial Intention among Millennial Generation: Mediating Role of Technology

Today, the COVID-19 pandemic impacts declining economic activities due to an increase in the number of unemployed on a large scale. The significant increase in the number of open unemployed is not only caused by a slowdown in economic growth but also due to changes in people's behavior related to the COVID-19 pandemic and social restriction policies, both on a small and large scale. This study investigates the mediating role of technology in the relationship between human resource competence and entrepreneurial intention among the millennial generation. This quantitative study was designed using a survey questionnaire to 97 respondents. The data were analyzed using Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) with Partial Least Square (PLS). SEM consists of two sub-models: measurement model (outer model) and structural model (inner model). The result indicates that human resource competence significantly affects the role of technology and entrepreneurial intention. Besides that, this study found that the role of technology mediates the relationship between human resource competence and entrepreneurial intention. In conclusion, this study proves that the role of technology is a significant factor in the relationship between the competence of human resources and the millennial generation's entrepreneurial intention.

Supply and Demand for Radiation Oncologists in Canada: Workforce Planning Projections From 2020 to 2040

The number of Canadians diagnosed with cancer, and subsequent demand for radiation therapy, are expected to increase over time. This study aimed to update our needs-based workforce planning model to ensure appropriate staffing levels in the future. The supply of radiation oncologists, by age group, sex, and full-time equivalent status, was projected from 2020 to 2040 using a recursive-aging, input-output model developed with seeding parameters derived from national sources. The demand for radiation oncologists until 2040 was estimated using referral patterns for radiation therapy and consultation workload metrics applied to projected annual cancer incident cases to calculate required full-time equivalent positions. Baseline model parameters were also applied to the 2005-2019 workforce and incident case data to evaluate preprojection supply and demand trends. Preprojection trends for 2005 to 2019 revealed accelerated staffing growth that transitioned from a workforce shortage to a surplus state in 2014 followed by substantial growth slowdown in 2016. The model predicts a transient surplus of radiation oncologists until 2026 followed by a projected deficit in subsequent years. Sensitivity analyses using the plausible range for each parameter continued to favor an undersupply, suggesting a trainee shortage unable to meet workforce expansion needs. Considering possible future declining trends in radiotherapy utilization and workload, calculations to inform corrective efforts in resident numbers resulted in 25 entry positions per year, up from 21 per year currently. Geographic distribution of trainees, relative to workforce and cancer incidence distributions, could be improved with more residency positions in Canadian regions outside Ontario. Demand for radiation therapy and radiation oncologists in Canada are expected to grow more quickly than future expansion in staffing levels. Our workforce planning model provides evidence for more trainee requirements to inform stakeholders of possible corrective actions to training programs and recruitment. Further research is needed to explore additional strategies to expand capacity and high-quality delivery of radiation therapy to meet the foreseeable increase in Canadian patients with cancer.

ЭКОНОМИКА ПРОМЫШЛЕННЫХ ПРЕДПРИЯТИЙ: ВЛИЯНИЕ ПАНДЕМИИ COVID-19 И ЕЕ ПОСЛЕДСТВИЯ В УДМУРТСКОЙ РЕСПУБЛИКЕ

The article deals with the problems that arose during the pandemic of a new disease on a global scale. Before the outbreak of a new infection in the Chinese province of Wuhan in December 2019, nothing was known about the COVID 19 virus of the coronavirus family. But in a matter of days and weeks, the disease spread around the world and claimed the lives of thousands of people, which led to the need for quarantine measures and the ensuing crisis. The industry turned out to be particularly vulnerable during this period due to the fact that the majority of employees in the sector are directly employed in production, and work is often difficult or impossible to perform remotely, it is not always possible to ensure social distancing at workplaces in workshops, warehouses, and logistics. The work of many industrial enterprises had to be stopped, each day of downtime brought losses and was measured in millions of lost profits. The decline in industrial production is one of the reasons for the slowdown in economic growth. A shock in effective supply and demand, disruptions in value chains, and a decline in investment – all these factors have a negative impact on all areas of economic activity. As a unique phenomenon that has affected the global economy, the pandemic is of interest in terms of analyzing its consequences for individual regions and regions of the country, industries and activities. This article discusses in more detail the reflection of the coronavirus pandemic on the dynamics of socio-economic indicators of the Udmurt Republic and, in particular, at the industrial enterprises of the region, analyzes the main qualitative changes in people's lives. The main trends in the development of business and society are revealed, and fundamental approaches and actions to adapt to new realities are proposed.

Adaptation of multipurpose tractors to row spaces of cotton crops

In the Republic of Uzbekistan, cotton cultivation is carried out on row spacings of 60; 76 and 90 cm. The machine-tractor parks of cotton-growing farms are equipped with agricultural machines designed for these inter-row spacings and they are aggregated by tractors with gauges designed for them. Such a variety of tractor gauges creates the problem of mismatch between the gauge and row spacing when moving from one row spacing to another, increases the variety of spare parts and narrows the scope of their use only within one type of row spacing. The discrepancy between the gauge of serial universal row-crop tractors and the cultivated row spacing leads to damage to the plant and compaction of the soil in the area where its root system is located. Overconsolidation of the soil by more than 1.1 g/cm3 leads to a slowdown in plant growth and development, an increase in soil resistivity during subsequent tillage operations and, most importantly, a decrease in crop yield. Studies have established that, despite the variety of designs of known devices used to adjust the track, they change the track stepwise and in an insufficient range, as a result of which the tractor does not fit into the row spacing. To eliminate the shortcomings of the known methods for adjusting the track, a device has been developed for adapting the tractor running system to work on different row spacings. The developed device allows, without the use of attachments or interchangeable axle shafts and their casings, to accurately adapt the tractor’s running system to the aisle of crops cultivated by it, thereby eliminating the existing shortcomings of serial universal row-cultivator tractors. The article provides a description of the proposed technical solution and the method of its application.

Bank Indonesia Syariah Certificate: Encouraging Economic Growth During The COVID-19 Pandemic

The Bank Indonesia Sharia Certificate (SBIS) is one of the sharia monetary instruments used by Bank Indonesia in formulating monetary policy. The development of SBIS is related to several factors: inflation growth, the economy, and the development of the gross domestic product. This study aims to determine how to implement the Bank Indonesia Sharia Certificate (SBIS) in encouraging monetary economic growth during the Covid-19 pandemic. The slowdown in economic growth and regional economic performance due to the impact of the Covid-19 virus outbreak that attacked the economy resulted in a decline in economic performance. The role of money market products (SBIS) can encourage economic growth and development through Islamic money market transactions. This research method uses descriptive qualitative research with a library research approach and interviews. In collecting interview data using the accidental sampling method conducted on Bank Indonesia staff directly at the research location and data on the growth, economy, and development of SBIS during the Covid-19 pandemic. Research results: The Bank Indonesia Sharia Certificate (SBIS) implementation has generally been carried out properly by Bank Indonesia. When Bank Indonesia issues SBIS and sells it to the public, this will cause the money supply in the community to decrease. When the money supply in society decreases, then inflation can be suppressed. When inflation can be suppressed, this will indirectly affect the increase in financing disbursements in Islamic banks. So, it can be concluded that SBIS significantly affects financing distribution in Islamic banking. When financing distribution increases, this will help MSME players affected by Covid-19 in terms of capital. The role of SBIS during the Covid-19 pandemic can stimulate and encourage economic growth performance.