Slip Patches Research Articles

The Repeating Major Earthquakes in the Mexican Subduction Zone Along Oaxaca: Implications for Future Events

Abstract The subduction zone along Oaxaca, Mexico, has experienced multiple Mw ≥ 7 earthquakes that ruptured in close proximity several decades apart in at least three locations along the coast. Similarity of waveform recordings from a few long-period seismic stations at teleseismic distances has provided evidence for up to three repeated failures of the same slip patches, or persistent asperities, in the region. The evidence from prior single-station comparisons is bolstered by considering azimuthally distributed sets of body-wave recording pairs for the 1968 and 2018 Pinotepa Nacional (western Oaxaca), and 1965 and 2020 La Crucecita (eastern Oaxaca) earthquakes, as viewed in the long-period World-Wide Standardized Seismograph Network instrument passband (>5 s period). Drawing on detailed slip inversions for the most recent events and observations of their relationships with regional slow-slip events, we note features to be alert for in central Oaxaca where prior repeating events in 1928 and 1978 occurred and there is potential for a similar future event.

Rupture behaviors of the southern Xianshuihe fault and seismicity around Mt. Gongga: Insights from the 2022 MW 6.6 Luding (China) earthquake sequence

The 2022 MW 6.6 Luding earthquake occurred on the Moxi segment of the Xianshuihe fault at the southeast margin of Tibetan Plateau, China. To assess the seismic potential of the Moxi segment, we examine the rupture process of the mainshock and aftershock sequence, along with historical seismicity. Our preferred slip model inverted from teleseismic body waves and regional GNSS static displacements shows a dominant southeastward rupture consisting of two distinct, prominent slip patches along strike extending by ∼15 km, with a peak slip of ∼2.8 m, approximately balancing the slip deficit since the last major earthquake in 1786. The northern section of the Moxi segment experienced minor coseismic slip, which, together with the significant slip deficits and positive Coulomb failure stress change induced by the 2022 mainshock indicates a high seismic potential. Several aftershock clusters are distributed along or near the Moxi segment, with strike-slip focal mechanisms around the downdip edge of the coseismic slip area at ∼8‐12 km. At the eastern flank of Mt. Gongga, another cluster of normal faulting aftershocks is located at shallower depths of ∼3‐7 km, with high seismicity rate over ∼9 months including two other M5 sequences in January and February 2023. Similar intense shallow normal faulting activity had occurred after the impoundment of the nearby Dagangshan reservoir in 2015. We speculate that some NW-SE trending normal faults were initially developed by the gravitational collapse of Mt. Gongga underneath the eastern flank, further weakened by fluid flow, as supported by the existence of hot springs and water impoundment, and reactivated by the tensional stress change induced by the 2022 mainshock. These results have important implications for assessing the seismic hazard in and around the Moxi segment, and the potential interplay between strike-slip fault and nearby mountain areas.

Lithospheric rheology in West Tibet and Pamir constrained from the postseismic deformation of the 2005 Mw7.6 Kashmir (Pakistan) earthquake

We study the postseismic deformation of the 2005 Mw7.6 Kashmir earthquake in Pakistan, with a combination of the near- and far-field geodetic observations from the Kashmir Himalaya and the Tibetan Plateau, respectively. We construct a 3D finite-element model that integrates topographic relief, curved fault plane, and layered lithospheric structures to analyze stress-driven afterslip and estimate the rheological parameters of the Tibetan lithosphere. Our findings reveal that the ten-year afterslips of up to 30 cm were primarily localized at the downdip edges of co-seismic slip patches, causing near-field surface deformation of up to ∼5 cm within the first year. In contrast, viscoelastic relaxation in the lower crust of western Tibet and Pamir was required to reproduce far-field displacements of up to 1–2 cm recorded by GPS during the first 7 years. The model that best fits to the GPS displacements suggests a Maxwell viscosity exceeding 1020 Pa s for the Indian lower crust, while a much lower viscosity of ∼4–10×1018 Pa s is inferred for the lower crust beneath Pamir and western Tibet, indicating a softer Tibet and Pamir in response to the continental collision between India and Eurasia.

Co-seismic and post-seismic slip associated with the 2021 Mw5.9 Arkalochori, Central Crete (Greece) earthquake constrained by geodetic data and aftershocks

The co-seismic and post-seismic deformation field associated with the Mw5.9 Arkalochori main shock that occurred in central Crete (Greece) on 27 September 2021 is analyzed using Copernicus Sentinel-1A & 1B images, GNSS measurements and seismological data. The fault geometry is constrained through the joint inversion of multiple datasets and the slip distribution for the co-seismic and post-seismic period is obtained using a homogeneous half-space elastic model and the Steepest Descent Method. The results indicate a blind normal fault striking 215° with a 55° dip to the northwest and the co-seismic slip model suggests a nearly circular main slip patch (8 × 6 km2) with a maximum slip of 0.98 m. Post-seismic displacements started rapidly after the main shock followed by a gradual decay as highlighted by the calculated InSAR time series. The temporal evolution of post-seismic slip is described by a simple logarithmic function, decaying faster at the southwest part of the fault. The cumulative afterslip model suggests that the maximum post-seismic slip of 0.23 m occurred within a similar depth range compared to the co-seismic one, yet with a shift towards the southwest. Post-seismic slip inside the main shock rupture area is sustained, highlighting the slow recovery of locking in the co-seismic slip region. Afterslip (seismic or aseismic) played a dominant role in the early post-seismic period acting complementarily to the main rupture. Indications suggest that the spatiotemporal evolution of the productive aftershock sequence may be driven afterslip, alongside other potential factors.

Source characteristics of the 2006 Pingtung earthquake doublet off southern Taiwan and the possible contribution of submarine landslides to the Tsunami

On 26th December 2006, two successive large earthquakes of Mw ∼7.0, occurred offshore southwest Taiwan, being 8 min apart, known as the 2006 Pingtung earthquake doublet. The earthquakes triggered a hazard chain consisting of regional-scale tsunamis, submarine landslides, and turbidity currents. The tsunami waves with moderate height (10–60 cm) were recorded by 12 tide gauges along southern Taiwan, Guangdong, and Fujian provinces. Submarine landslide-induced turbidity currents inflicted widespread damage to telecommunication cables across the Kaoping Canyon and Manila Trench. Although the mechanisms of the individual hazard in the chain have been investigated previously, the interaction mechanisms and the causal relationship among them remain unclear due to the complexity of the dynamic process. Here, with the best available instrumental records of these events, we first reexamined the earthquake doublet's source characteristics and obtained the earthquake source models using regional seismic waves, high-rate GPS displacements, and strong motion waveforms. We then conducted forward tsunami modeling, along with spectral analysis of the tide gauge records and backward tsunami ray tracing technique, to gain insight of the hydrodynamic features of tsunamis and the contribution of landslides to tsunami generation. The main findings can be summarized as follows. The centroid depth of the first earthquake was found to be ∼28 km, which is shallower than the local CWB catalog suggested. The slip distribution was characterized by two close slip patches, ranging over depths of 15–35 km and occupying 40 km along the strike. The shallower focal depth and normal-faulting mechanism can well explain the recorded tsunami waves. Notably, wave analysis suggests that tsunami waves induced by landslides may have occurred in two episodes. The first round was likely produced by the landslides triggered simultaneously by the initial earthquake doublet. The largest aftershock, which occurred 14 h after the doublet with a strike-slip mechanism, may have caused the landslides near the head of Kaoping Canyon and possibly the second-round tsunami.

Abnormal apparent supershear rupture with discontinuous jumping propagation during the 2023 Türkiye M7.8 earthquake

Earthquake ruptures along a single fault or along a connected system of faults are generally assumed to progress continuously. However, our analysis of the 2023 M7.8 Türkiye earthquake, using finite-fault joint source inversion, uncovered the occurrence of discontinuous rupture jumps. The main fault area adjacent to the splay fault where the earthquake started, and the deeper portion of the northeastern main fault segment exhibited triggered slip before the main rupture front arrived. Through seismic centroid analysis and finite-fault inversion, we estimated apparent rupture speeds within these slip patches reach approximately 6.0 km s-1, exceeding local S-wave velocity. The dynamic triggering mechanism induced the jumping rupture in these areas, resulting in an apparent rupture velocity surpassing the local shear wave velocity. These findings demonstrate the importance of dynamic triggering in adjacent fault systems during large earthquakes, influencing the extent and complexity of rupture propagation.

The use of Cauchy-type singular integrals over neighboring intervals to compute induced slip in displaced faults

We present expressions to compute the inverse of a Cauchy-type singular integral equation representing the relation between a double-peaked Coulomb stress in a fault or fracture and the resulting slip gradient in two distinct collinear slip patches. In particular we consider a situation where the patches are close enough to account for the influence of the slip gradient in one patch on the slip-induced shear stress in the other patch and vice versa. This situation can occur during depletion-induced or injection-induced fault slip in subsurface reservoirs for, e.g., natural gas production, hydrogen or CO2 storage, or geothermal operations. The theory for a single slip patch is well-developed but the situation is less clear for a configuration with two patches although the monographs of Muskhelishvili (1953) and Weertman (1996) provide earlier results. We show that the general inverse solution for the coupled two-patch problem requires six auxiliary conditions to ensure six physical requirements: boundedness of the slip gradient at the four end points of the slip patches and vanishing of the integrals of the slip gradient over the patches. Mathematically, the presence of two additional conditions, as compared to earlier formulations, corresponds to two undetermined coefficients in the general solution of the governing integral equation. Numerical simulation confirms that at least one of these is always non-zero in the coupled situation. For a coupled double-patch case with a symmetric pre-slip Coulomb stress pattern, the general inverse solution requires three auxiliary conditions. Moreover the conditions for the asymmetric case may be reduced to a set of four again, but these are different from the sets of four obtained earlier by Muskhelishvili (1953) and Weertman (1996). We illustrate the theory with a numerical example in which the evaluation of the Cauchy integrals is performed with a modified version of augmented Gauss–Chebyshev quadrature that relies on analytical inversion.

Coseismic and Early Postseismic Deformation of the 2024 Mw7.45 Noto Peninsula Earthquake

AbstractAn unexpected Mw7.45 earthquake struck the Noto Peninsula on 1 January 2024, preceded by several long‐living earthquake swarms, providing a valuable opportunity to study seismic and aseismic slips, as well as their interactions. We derived coseismic and 19‐day postseismic slip distributions by inverting co‐ and post‐seismic displacements from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data. The inverted coseismic slip distribution shows two slip patches, with a maximum slip of ∼4 m. The early postseismic afterslip is 0.1–0.25 m within coseismic slip asperity and 0.1–0.6 m northward of the rupture area. The afterslip within the rupture area is accompanied by numerous aftershocks and coincides with a ∼6 MPa stress drop, suggesting that aftershocks are likely driven by the afterslip. The pattern of poroelastic rebound implies a potential effect of fluid flow on aftershock triggering. This study sheds lights on the intricate interplay between seismic and aseismic processes following large earthquakes.

MID-SPAN STALL INCEPTION IN LOW PRESSURE RATIO TRANSONIC FANS

Abstract In this paper, steady and unsteady CFD have been used to investigate stall inception for a modern low pressure ratio transonic fan. The computational results are validated against measurement data from a high-speed test facility. CFD validation was approached as a blind test case. The results shows good agreement between the experiments and computations. Stall is triggered by growth of a suction surface separation behind the shock around the mid-span of the rotor blade. As the fan is throttled the separation grows leading to increased blockage in the blade passages. At the point of instability the separation grows further, locally increasing incidence and leading to the formation of a stall cell. It is shown that changes to the tip leakage flow leave the stall inception mechanism unaffected. A computational case with a suction surface slip patch between 25-75% span shows that the reduction in blockage around the mid-span increases the stall margin by 25%. This demonstrates that for cases with mid-span initiated stall it is important to consider the flow away from the tip as well as the flow in the tip region. A redesigned fan is used to illustrate that design changes around the mid-span can be effective to improve flow range. The redesigned fan increases stall margin by 6.7% while maintaining the design point efficiency within 0.1%

Complex conjugate rupture of the 2014 Mw 6.2 Ludian (Yunnan, China) earthquake

The Mw 6.2 Ludian earthquake, struck Yunnan, China on August 3rd, 2014, leading to a complex aftershock distribution and enormous disaster. The Ludian earthquake is well recorded by the China Earthquake Network. The rupture process of the Ludian earthquake is constrained by the more local strong motion data including the LLT station with epicentral distance of ∼2 km and teleseismic body waves and surface waves in this study. The local strong motion data constrained the epicenter’s location and rupture process better. Waveform fit of key local strong-motion stations supported that the Ludian earthquake ruptured two conjugate faults with strike angles of 77° and 160°, respectively. The rupture simultaneously took place on two conjugate faults and lasted approximately 10 s. The peak slip, rise time, and average slip rate are 0.63 m, 0.69 s, and 2.12 m/s, respectively. The result shows that the main rupture zone was on the fault with a strike of 160°. The depth of the major slip patch was 0–4 km with a centroid depth of 2 km. It indicates that the shallow slip is the main reason for the enormous disaster from the earthquake source perspective.

Structural Heterogeneity Controlled Rupture Process of the 2021 Mw 7.1 Fukushima, Japan, Earthquake Revealed by Joint Inversion of Seismic and Geodetic Data

Abstract We determined the rupture model of the 2021 Mw 7.1 Fukushima earthquake near northeastern Japan in this study and adopted this model to investigate the cause of this earthquake and its aftershocks. The rupture model was obtained through joint inversion of teleseismic, strong-motion and geodetic data. It is shown that the slips were predominantly distributed on the southwest side of the earthquake epicenter, indicating a unilateral rupture event. We observed that the seismic moment was released in three time periods, producing four slip patches on the fault plane. Through comparison, we demonstrated that our joint inversion model was more reliable in describing the rupture process of the Fukushima earthquake than the automatic inversion models determined using only strong-motion data. By jointly analyzing the slip distribution and seismic velocity structure, we found a good correlation between the slip patches and VP/VS anomalies, suggesting that structural heterogeneities along the fault zone played a critical role in controlling the rupture process of the Fukushima earthquake. In addition, most aftershocks were located in the region characterized by small slips and high VP/VS, and we demonstrated that they were caused by stress changes due to the presence of fluids and the rupture of the mainshock.

Revisiting the 2015Mw = 8.3 Illapel earthquake: unveiling complex fault slip properties using Bayesian inversion

SUMMARYThe 2015 moment magnitude Mw = 8.3 Illapel earthquake is the largest mega-thrust earthquake that has been recorded along the Chilean subduction zone since the 2010 Mw = 8.8 Maule earthquake. Previous studies indicate a rupture propagation from the hypocentre to shallower parts of the fault, with a maximum slip varying from 10 to 16 m. The amount of shallow slip differs dramatically between rupture models with some results showing almost no slip at the trench and other models with significant slip at shallow depth. In this work, we revisit this event by combining a comprehensive data set including continuous and survey GNSS data corrected for post-seismic and aftershock signals, ascending and descending InSAR images of the Sentinel-1A satellite, tsunami data along with high-rate GPS, and doubly integrated strong-motion waveforms. We follow a Bayesian approach, in which the solution is an ensemble of models. The kinematic inversion is done using the cascading capability of the AlTar algorithm, allowing us to first get a static solution before integrating seismic data in a joint model. In addition, we explore a new approach to account for forward problem uncertainties using a second-order perturbation approach. Results show a rupture with two main slip patches, with significant slip at shallow depth. During the rupture propagation, we observe two regions that are encircled by the rupture, with no significant slip, westward of the hypocentre. These encircling effects have been previously suggested by back-projection results but have not been observed in finite-fault slip models. We propose that the encircled regions correspond to zones where the yield stress largely exceeds the initial stress or where fracture energy is too large to be ruptured during the Illapel earthquake. These asperities may potentially break in the future and probably already broke in the past.

Cascading multi-segment rupture in an injection-induced earthquake sequence with a Mw 5.3 mainshock

Rupture segmentation and propagating earthquake sequences are observed in major fault systems, however, the scalability of these processes to smaller fault systems is unclear. We investigated a 2011 earthquake sequence with a moderate magnitude mainshock (Mw 5.3) in the Trinidad zone, located in the Raton Basin coalbed methane field on the Colorado-New Mexico border, USA. The complexity of the 2011 earthquake sequence and broader evolution of seismicity from 2008-2022 was captured using machine-learning to build an initial earthquake catalog with an aftershock array followed by automated template detection. The 2011 Mw 5.3 mainshock was likely the culmination of cascading failure with slip across multiple well-separated segments. The majority (92%) of aftershock waveforms clustered into seven distinct groups, which are interpreted to result from slip asperities along multiple faults. The three southern clusters hosted foreshocks in the days to minutes prior to the mainshock, whereas the four northern clusters were inactive over the same period. The mainshock rupture initiated in the foreshock footprint and moved northeastward across the three southern clusters which are interpreted to occur on a NNE-SSW trending normal fault. The maximum slip patch from a previous geodetic inversion aligns with the third cluster along the rupture path from south to north. The ∼5.5-6 km rupture length across the three southern clusters is consistent with empirical scaling of rupture length (5-5.5 km) for a Mw 5.3 earthquake. Within an hour after the mainshock, seismicity was triggered on the four previously quiescent northern segments which appear to form a N-S oriented normal fault. The northern clusters filled a seismic gap between the two major earthquake sequences of the Trinidad zone, the 2011 Mw 5.3 and the 2001 MbLg 4.5 mainshock earthquake sequences. Seismicity in the Trinidad zone diminished from 2012-2016, and the earthquake rate from 2016-2020 is two orders of magnitude lower than that of the neighboring Tercio and Vermejo Park zones. Such complex earthquake sequences present a challenge for accurate hazard assessment in fluid-injection settings where fault geometry is often unresolved until seismic reactivation and the strength of the crust can be locally modified by fluid-injection.

SLIP SOURCE MODEL OF THE 1995 NEFTEGORSK EARTHQUAKE (NORTH SAKHALIN) FROM GEODETIC DATA

The May 27, 1995 Mw=7.0 Neftegorsk earthquake occurred in the north of Sakhalin Island, rupturing the Upper Piltun fault, a secondary feature of the main Hokkaido-Sakhalin regional fault zone. The fault geometry, coseismic slip model, and Coulomb stress changes in the earthquake focal area were calculated based on a finite fault modeling. We used near-field coseismic offsets at 24 points obtained by comparison between predating triangulation and GPS observations, which were collected before and after the earthquake. Our slip distribution model shows two major slip patches. Larger slip asperity (amplitude up to 6.36 m) was characterized by right-lateral strike-slip movements, which correspond to focal mechanism of the earthquake, whereas the northern segment has reverse fault mechanism with maximum slip of 2.64 m. The fault length and width, average slip and stress drop values are estimated at 78 km, 28 km, 1.91 m and 11.3 MPa, respectively. The estimated release moment is approximately 7.49×1019 N∙m equal to Mw=7.2, which is larger than that reported by the USGS and GCMT but consistent with the values reported by other researchers. The coseismic Coulomb stress changes enhanced the stress by more than 10 MPa on the southern segment of the Gyrgylaninsky fault and middle section of the Hokkaido–Sakhalin fault. Seismic risks on the nearest faults cannot be ignored in the future despite the fact that the earthquake with a magnitude of 5.8 occurred in 2010 near the Gyrgylaninsky fault. The recent GPS rates in the surroundings of the Neftegorsk surface rupture mean that the recurrence interval for similar earthquakes may be more than a thousand years.

Joint inversion of ocean-bottom pressure and GNSS data from the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake

When the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake generated a large tsunami off eastern Hokkaido, Japan, it was detected by cabled ocean-bottom pressure gauges (OBPs) installed within the seismic source region. The OBP records included characteristic features of tsunami waveforms in the source region, indicating significant offset due to the permanent sea-bottom displacement, which can provide critical information about the earthquake source. However, no studies have considered the OBP tsunami data observed in the focal region for the source inversion of the Tokachi-oki earthquake. Here, in order to better understand the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake source, we estimate the spatial distribution of fault slip by conducting a joint inversion using two different datasets: tsunami data from four OBPs, located in the focal region and about 300 km away to the south, as well as Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data obtained throughout Hokkaido and northern Honshu. Through our joint inversion, we found that the most dominant slip peak is located 40 km northwest from the hypocenter with an abnormally large slip of sim15 m. This large slip may result from releasing a high amount of slip deficit accumulated by a stick–slip patch surrounded by stable slip regions on the southernmost Kuril subduction zone. By comparing the OBP observations and the synthetic tsunami waveforms derived from our fault model and other fault models, we conclude that the OBP tsunami data recorded within the focal region better constrained the magnitude and the location of the slip compared to other geophysical data.Graphical

Long‐Term Offshore Borehole Fluid‐Pressure Monitoring at the Northern Cascadia Subduction Zone and Inferences Regarding the State of Megathrust Locking

AbstractThe Cascadia subduction megathrust off the Pacific Northwest follows an “end member” seismogenic behavior, producing large (up to moment magnitude 9) but infrequent (every several hundred years) earthquakes and tsunamis. Crustal deformation associated with the ongoing plate convergence has been characterized by land‐based geodetic observations, but the state of locking across the full breadth of the seismogenic fault is poorly constrained. We report results of offshore monitoring of borehole fluid pressure, as a proxy for formation volumetric strain, at a site ∼20 km landward of the Cascadia subduction deformation front since 2010. The multi‐depth pressure records were plagued by hydrologic noise, but noise at the deepest monitoring level (303 m sub‐seafloor) abated in 2015. Subsequently, including at the times of regional large earthquakes that caused significant dynamic stressing, no persistent pressure transients are present above a threshold of 0.08 kPa imposed by unremovable oceanographic signals, corresponding to a strain detection limit of ∼16 nanostrain. Simple dislocation models using local megathrust geometry suggest a resolvable slip of <1 cm along a trench‐normal corridor beneath the borehole for a range of slip‐patch dimensions. A large slip patch can be well resolved even at considerable along‐strike distances from the borehole; for instance, ∼10 cm slip is detectable over a 200‐km strike range for a slip‐patch radius of ∼50 km. This high sensitivity for detecting slip, along with the lack of observed events, stands in stark contrast to observations at other subduction zones, and suggests that the Northern Cascadia megathrust is most likely fully locked.

Coseismic and Early Postseismic Deformation of the 2020 Mw 6.4 Petrinja Earthquake (Croatia) Revealed by InSAR

The largest earthquake (Mw 6.4) in northwestern Croatia ruptured the faults near the city of Petrinja on 29 December 2020, at 11:19 UTC. The epicenter was located ~3 km southwest of Petrinja, ~40 km southeast of Zagreb, the capital of the Republic of Croatia. Here we investigated the geometric and kinematic properties of the 2020 Mw 6.4 Petrinja earthquake using a joint inversion of ascending and descending interferograms from three tracks of Sentinel-1 Single-Look Complex (SLC) images. The coseismic and early postseismic surface displacements associated with the Petrinja earthquake were imaged using standard DInSAR and SBAS time-series InSAR methods, respectively. The distributed slip model was inverted based on the ground surface displacements with maximum slip patch in 5 km depth. The early postseismic deformation occurred on the northwestern extent of coseismic slip, and it cannot be well modeled by the coseismic model. We thus suggested that the postseismic deformation was caused by a combined effect of the postseismic afterslips and aftershocks occurring in this area. Based on the inverted slip model, we calculated the Coulomb stress change in the region, and found a good correlation between positive Coulomb failure stress ∆CFS and the distribution of aftershocks. Based on these results, we identified which faults are more active, and then better estimated the seismic hazards in the region.

Imaging the 2007 Mw 7.7 Tocopilla earthquake from short-period back-projection

The 14 November 2007 Tocopilla (MW 7.7) earthquake was the first large rupture (M > 7.5) in the 1877 Northern Chile seismic gap. The event only ruptured the lower seismogenic part of the megathrust, raising questions about the mechanism that prevented the trenchward rupture propagation. Here, we present the short-period rupture process of the Tocopilla earthquake from local strong-motion (2.0–8.0 Hz) and teleseismic (0.5–2.0 Hz) back-projections. P and pP teleseismic back-projections were combined from two arrays formed on broadband networks in North America and Africa. The kinematics of the earthquake rupture was also characterized by back-propagating S-wave envelopes from local accelerometers (≤ 200 km from the mainshock). The results show a complex rupture process, including a sub-event, from the distribution of short-period rupture emissions and the main slip asperities. The sub-event location agrees with published estimates based on S-wave arrivals and kinematic inversion. We also observed rupture emissions around the slip patches and systemically classified them relative to the asperities, i.e., down-dip, up-dip, and inside. The short-period emissions are balanced around the asperities, highlighting up-dip rupture emissions. We interpreted the up-dip emissions as a proxy of the high-stress gradient caused by a kink in the slab interface, proposed in previous literature to be the mechanism that arrested the trenchward propagation of the 2007 rupture. The down-dip limit of the Tocopilla event coincided approximately where the slab interface intersects the continental Moho. Thus, it is a region expected to be extensively serpentinized, i.e., the most seaward part of the mantle wedge, defining a velocity-strengthening margin and a source of short-period radiation. The high-stress gradient around the asperities is proposed to define a third source of short-period radiation that may contribute to rupture encircling emissions.

Joint Inversion of Geodetic and Strong Motion Data for the 2012, Mw 6.1–6.0, May 20th and May 29th, Northern Italy Earthquakes: Source Models and Seismotectonic Interpretation

AbstractWe present the first rupture models of the two mainshocks of the 2012 northern Italy sequence, determined by jointly inverting seismic and geodetic data. We aim at providing new insights into the mainshocks for which contrasting seismotectonic interpretations are proposed in literature. Sources' geometric parameters were constrained by seismic reflection profiles, 3‐D relocations and focal mechanisms of mainshocks/aftershocks. Site‐specific velocity profiles were used to model accelerograms affected by strong propagation effects related to the Po basin. Our source models differ significantly from previous ones relying on either seismic or geodetic data. Their comparison against geological sections and aftershock distribution provides new insights about the ruptured thrust faults. The May 20th Mw6.1 mainshock activated the Middle Ferrara thrust‐ramp dipping ∼45° SSW‐wards, breaking a main eastern slip patch 4–15 km deep in Mesozoic carbonates (maximum slip 0.7–0.8 m) and Paleozoic‐Triassic basement rocks, and a small western patch in the basement. The May 29th Mw6.0 mainshock featured two separated asperities along the Mirandola thrust‐ramp dipping ∼42° S‐wards: an eastern asperity 4–15 km deep in Mesozoic carbonates and basement rocks (maximum slip 0.7 m) and a deeper western one (7–16 km depth) mainly in the basement (slip peak 0.8 m). On‐fault aftershocks were concentrated within the basement and Mesozoic carbonates, devoiding high‐slip zones. Slip and aftershock distribution was controlled by the rheological transition between Mesozoic carbonates and Cenozoic sediments. Unlike previous thin‐skinned tectonic interpretations, our results point to a complex rupture process along moderately dipping (40°–45°) thrust‐ramps deeply rooted into the Paleozoic crystalline basement.

Estimating Earthquake-Induced Tsunami Height Probabilities without Sampling

Given a distribution of earthquake-induced seafloor elevations, we present a method to compute the probability of the resulting tsunamis reaching a certain size on shore. Instead of sampling, the proposed method relies on optimization to compute the most likely fault slips that result in a seafloor deformation inducing a large tsunami wave. We model tsunamis induced by bathymetry change using the shallow water equations on an idealized slice through the sea. The earthquake slip model is based on a sum of multivariate log-normal distributions, and follows the Gutenberg-Richter law for seismic moment magnitudes ranging from 7 to 9. For a model problem inspired by the Tohoku-Oki 2011 earthquake and tsunami, we quantify annual probabilities of differently sized tsunami waves. Our method also identifies the most effective tsunami mechanisms. These mechanisms have smoothly varying fault slip patches that lead to an expansive but moderately large bathymetry change. The resulting tsunami waves are compressed as they approach shore and reach close-to-vertical leading wave edge close to shore.