Slip Deficit Research Articles

The Role of Slow Slip Events in the Cascadia Subduction Zone Earthquake Cycle

AbstractSlow slip events (SSEs) detected on the Cascadia Subduction Zone interface at 30–50 km depth imply a release of accumulated strain. However, studies of interseismic deformation in Cascadia typically find coupling on the upper 30 km of the interface, which is generally accepted as defining the seismogenic zone. Estimates of coupling using net interseismic velocities (including SSE effects) and restricting coupling to the shallow interface may underestimate slip deficit accumulation at depths >30 km. Here, we detect reversals in GPS motion as indications of SSEs, then use SSE displacements to estimate cumulative slow slip from 2007 to 2021. We calculate pure interseismic velocities, correcting for SSE displacements, and use them to constrain an elastic block model, estimating slip deficit on the subduction interface down to 50 km. By evaluating slip deficit and slow slip independently, we examine SSEs’ effect on interseismic strain accumulation, and the effect of inter‐SSE slip deficit and slow slip on vertical deformation of the forearc. We find that moderate to high coupling extends to 40 km depth, and while shallow coupling is consistent with previous estimates of the seismogenic zone, a deeper region of slip deficit beneath the Olympic Peninsula may be partially (61%) relieved aseismically by SSEs. Patterns of surface uplift suggest that complete relief of deep coupling over multiple decades may be accomplished by time‐varying rates of aseismic slip.

Crustal deformation measurements by global positioning system (GPS) along NSL, western India

The Narmada Son Lineament (NSL) is a major palaeo-rift system and seismically active intra-plate region. In this paper, we processed and analyzed the GPS data from 2009 to 2016 to study the geodynamic characteristics of NSL. The velocities derived from GPS were used to calculate the associated deformation and crustal strain, while the slip deficit was estimated using the horizontal motion of GPS sites. The investigation reveals that the maximum deformation of western NSL is 1.6 mm per year, and the upper bound of the seismic moment (M0) is 2.0 × 1024 dyn/cm, corresponding to an earthquake of about 6.0 magnitude. The study highlights the significance of Aravalli and Satpura mobile belts. The estimated strain of 0.03 μstrain/yr is low but comparable to the stable continental region, and a close association of factors (the fragility, crustal conductors, and compressive tectonics) is considered responsible for seismogenic activities in western NSL.

Deep Coseismic Slip in the Cascadia Megathrust Can Be Consistent With Coastal Subsidence

AbstractAt subduction zones, the down‐dip limit of slip represents how deep an earthquake can rupture. For hazards it is important ‐ it controls the intensity of shaking and the pattern of coseismic uplift and subsidence. In the Cascadia Subduction Zone, because no large magnitude events have been observed in instrumental times, the limit is inferred from geological estimates of coastal subsidence during previous earthquakes; it is typically assumed to coincide approximately with the coastline. This is at odds with geodetic coupling models as it leaves residual slip deficits unaccommodated on a large swath of the megathrust. Here we will show that ruptures can penetrate deeper into the megathrust and still produce coastal subsidence provided slip decreases with depth. We will discuss the impacts of this on expected shaking intensities.

Coseismic Slip Model of the 2021 Maduo Earthquake, China from Sentinel-1 InSAR Observation

The 2021 Maduo earthquake occurred in the interior of the Bayan Har block of the Tibetan Plateau. We used space-born radar interferometry to study the coseismic deformation of this earthquake. Sentinel-1 InSAR observations along ascending and descending orbits provide the coseismic deformation. Pixel offset tracking method is used to complement InSAR observations near the rupture zone. The surface trace of the ruptured fault can be clearly mapped by InSAR observations. We constructed a three-dimensional coseismic slip model constrained by interferograms and pixel offset tracking in the form of a geodetic inverse problem. The coseismic slip model demonstrates that: (1) the Maduo earthquake was a left-lateral strike-slip event with moment magnitude of 7.4; (2) the peak slip is approximately 8 m and is located at a depth of 4 km; (3) a ‘shallow slip deficit’ of the Maduo earthquake is observed; (4) the ruptured faults are found to be dipping northward with a high dipping angle (80 degrees). This study has important implications on earthquake hazard evaluation of the Bayan Har block.

Resolving co- and early post-seismic slip variations of the 2021 MW 7.4 Maduo earthquake in east Bayan Har block with a block-wide distributed deformation mode from satellite synthetic aperture radar data

On 21 May 2021 (UTC), an <i>M</i>_W 7.4 earthquake jolted the east Bayan Har block in the Tibetan Plateau. The earthquake received widespread attention as it is the largest event in the Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings since the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, and especially in proximity to the seismic gaps on the east Kunlun fault. Here we use satellite interferometric synthetic aperture radar data and subpixel offset observations along the range directions to characterize the coseismic deformation of the earthquake. Range offset displacements depict clear surface ruptures with a total length of ~170 km involving two possible activated fault segments in the earthquake. Coseismic modeling results indicate that the earthquake was dominated by left-lateral strike-slip motions of up to 7 m within the top 12 km of the crust. The well-resolved slip variations are characterized by five major slip patches along strike and 64% of shallow slip deficit, suggesting a young seismogenic structure. Spatial–temporal changes of the postseismic deformation are mapped from early 6-day and 24-day InSAR observations, and are well explained by time-dependent afterslip models. Analysis of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) velocity profiles and strain rates suggests that the eastward extrusion of plateau is diffusely distributed across the east Bayan Har block, but exhibits significant lateral heterogeneities, as evidenced by magnetotelluric observations. The block-wide distributed deformation of the east Bayan Har block along with the significant co- and post-seismic stress loadings from the Madoi earthquake imply high seismic risks along regional faults, especially the Tuosuo Lake and Maqên–Maqu segments of the Kunlun fault that are known as seismic gaps.

Hypocentral dependent shallow slip distribution and rupture extents along a strike-slip fault

Natural faults feature heterogeneities in geometry, material properties, and stress distributions, posing great challenges in predicting fault slip behaviors. Among these factors, the stress on the fault is poorly understood due to the lack of direct measurements. Here, we estimate stress distribution from interseismic locking models and derive earthquake scenarios along the Anninghe fault in Sichuan, China, by conducting dynamic rupture simulations. The predicted rupture segmentation and moment magnitudes (Mw 6.9 – 7.3) are well consistent with historical earthquakes. Besides, we have observed models accompanied by continuous surface rupture, with surface offsets comparable to the values identified in field surveys of historical earthquakes. In addition, the surface rupture and the shallow slip deficit (SSD) vary drastically among models with different hypocenters, demonstrating that the earthquake process is indeterministic. The coseismic moment predicted in our models is ∼50% of what was anticipated from the static locking model. Our results highlight that those rupture scenarios derived from the locking-based heterogeneous stress can further contribute to the seismic hazard assessment.

A Global Set of Subduction Zone Earthquake Scenarios and Recurrence Intervals Inferred From Geodetically Constrained Block Models of Interseismic Coupling Distributions

AbstractThe past 100 years have seen the occurrence of five earthquakes and 94 earthquakes. Here we assess the potential for future great earthquakes using inferences of interseismic subduction zone coupling from a global block model incorporating both tectonic plate motions and earthquake cycle effects. Interseismic earthquake cycle effects are represented using a first‐order quasistatic elastic approximation and include of interacting fault system area across the globe. We use estimated spatial variations in decadal‐duration coupling at 15 subduction zones and the Himalayan range front to estimate the locations and magnitudes of potential seismic events using empirical scaling relationships relating coupled area to moment magnitude. As threshold coupling values increase, estimates of potential earthquake magnitudes decrease, but the total number of large earthquakes varies non‐monotonically. These rupture scenarios include as many as 14 recent or potential earthquakes globally and up to 18 distinct events associated with a single subduction zone (South America). We also combine estimated slip deficit rates and potential event magnitudes to calculate recurrence intervals for large earthquake scenarios, finding that almost all potential earthquakes would have a recurrence time of less than 1,000 years.

Coseismic and Early Postseismic Deformation Due to the 2021 M7.4 Maduo (China) Earthquake

AbstractThe 2021 Maduo earthquake ruptured a 150 km‐long left‐lateral fault in the northeast Tibet. We used Synthetic Aperture Radar data collected by the Sentinel‐1A/B satellites within days of the earthquake to derive a finite fault model and investigate the details of slip distribution with depth. We generated coseismic interferograms and pixel offsets from different look directions corresponding to the ascending and descending satellite orbits. At the eastern end the rupture bifurcated into two sub‐parallel strands, with larger slip on the northern strand. Inversions of coseismic displacements show maximum slip to the east of the epicenter. The averaged coseismic slip has a peak at depth of 3–4 km, similar to slip distributions of a number of shallow strike‐slip earthquakes. Postseismic observations over several weeks following the Maduo earthquake reveal surface slip with amplitude up to 0.1 m that at least partially eliminated the coseismic slip deficit in the uppermost crust.

The deep Shumagin gap filled: Kinematic rupture model and slip budget analysis of the 2020 Mw 7.8 Simeonof earthquake constrained by GNSS, global seismic waveforms, and floating InSAR

On 22 July 2020, the Mw 7.8 Simeonof megathrust earthquake struck offshore of the Alaska Peninsula. This was the largest event since 1917 in the enigmatic area known as the Shumagin seismic gap, a region of transitional plate interface coupling from highly coupled to the east to creeping to the west. Hence, this event provides a rare chance to understand rupture mechanics on such heterogeneously coupled faults. In this study, we examine the rupture process of the 2020 Simeonof earthquake with a combination of static GNSS displacements, InSAR displacements, high-rate GNSS waveforms and tele-seismic waveforms. Due to the discontinuous nature of the deformation field, we use InSAR data for individual islands and tie the displacement field either to GNSS observations or keep these “floating”, i.e. we estimate an ambiguity parameter during the inversion. Our results demonstrated that the rupture process of this event is unidirectional, initiating at the hypocenter and propagating westward for about 130 s with an average rupture velocity of ∼1.9 km/s. The highest slip was centered below the Koniuji Islands and occurred between 20 s to 50 s after the rupture initiation. We find that InSAR observations, especially “floating” data on near-field islands, provide essential constraints for the slip inversion, building confidence in the slipping of the less coupled region. Comparison with an existing and an alternative plate coupling model demonstrated that the remaining slip budget is unlikely to be able to generate a large event at depths from 30 to 40 km, as the Shumagin seismic gap has been mostly filled by the 2020 Simeonof earthquake at those depths. However, both coupling models suggest a substantial slip deficit in shallow near trench regions, suggesting that a significant earthquake can still occur. Seafloor geodetic observations are required to further constrain the near-trench plate coupling.

Interseismic fault slip deficit and coupling distributions on the Anninghe-Zemuhe-Daliangshan-Xiaojiang fault zone, southeastern Tibetan Plateau, based on GPS measurements

The Anninghe-Zemuhe-Daliangshan-Xiaojiang (AZDX) fault zone is an important boundary between the South China block and southeastern (SE) Tibetan Plateau. Its strong earthquake potential has been highly concerned, because remarkable left lateral strike-slip motion has been observed in this fault zone. Using the linear spherical block model constrained by a refined GPS horizontal velocity field, we have derived the detailed partial slip deficits and the coupling fraction distributions along the AZDX fault zone, as well as self-consistent long-term slip rates on major active faults in SE Tibetan Plateau. Our results identified three remarkable slip deficit regions with high fault coupling fractions (0.6–1.0), including the southern segment of the Anninghe Fault (north of Xichang), the southern segment of the Daliangshan Fault (Butuo-Qiaojia), and southern terminus of the Xiaojiang Fault. These regions spatially coincide with the seismic gaps inferred from the spatiotemporal distributions of historical earthquake ruptures and paleoearthquake surveys, jointly implying their higher strong earthquake potential. Furthermore, combining with analyses of GPS data, previous geological and numerical simulation studies, we tentatively discussed the possible effect range of the Burma arc tectonic domain.

Coseismic deformation of the 2021 MW7.4 Maduo earthquake from joint inversion of InSAR, GPS, and teleseismic data

The MW7.4 Maduo earthquake occurred on 22 May 2021 at 02:04 CST with a large-expansion surface rupture. This earthquake was located in the Bayan Har block at the eastern Tibetan Plateau, where eight earthquakes of MS >7.0 have occurred in the past 25 years. Here, we combined interferometric synthetic aperture radar, GPS, and teleseismic data to study the coseismic slip distribution, fault geometry, and dynamic source rupture process of the Maduo earthquake. We found that the overall coseismic deformation field of the Maduo earthquake is distributed in the NWW-SEE direction along 285°. There was slight bending at the western end and two branches at the eastern end. The maximum slip is located near the eastern bending area on the northern branch of the fault system. The rupture nucleated on the Jiangcuo fault and propagated approximately 160 km along-strike in both the NWW and SEE directions. The characteristic source rupture process of the Maduo earthquake is similar to that of the 2010 MW6.8 Yushu earthquake, indicating that similar earthquakes with large-expansion surface ruptures and small shallow slip deficits can occur on both the internal fault and boundary fault of the Bayan Har block.

Estimation of crustal deformation parameters and strain build-up in Northwest Himalaya using GNSS data measurements

GPS measurements have proved extremely useful in quantifying strain accumulation rate and assessing seismic hazard in a region. Continuous GPS measurements provide estimates of secular motion used to understand the earthquake and other geodynamic processes. GNSS stations extending from the South of India to the Higher Himalayan region have been used to quantify the strain build-up rate in Central India and the Himalayan region to assess the seismic hazard potential in this realm. Velocity solution has been determined after the application of Markov noise estimated from GPS time series data. The recorded GPS data are processed along with the closest International GNSS stations data for estimation of daily basis precise positioning. The baseline method has been used for the estimation of the linear strain rate between the two stations. Whereas the principal strain axes, maximum shear strain, rotation rate, and crustal shortening rate has been calculated through the site velocity using an independent approach; least-square inversion approach-based triangulation method. The strain rate analysis estimated by the triangulation approach exhibits a mean value of extension rate of 26.08 nano-strain/yr towards N131°, the compression rate of –25.38 nano-strain/yr towards N41°, maximum shear strain rate of 51.47 nano-strain/yr, dilation of –37.57 nano-strain/yr and rotation rate of 0.7°/Ma towards anti-clockwise. The computed strain rate from the Baseline method and the Triangulation method reports an extensive compression rate that gradually increases from the Indo-Gangetic Plain in South to Higher Himalaya in North. The slip deficit rate between India and Eurasia Plate in Kumaun Garhwal Himalaya has been computed as 18±1.5 mm/yr based on elastic dislocation theory. Thus, in this study, present-day surface deformation rate and interseismic strain accumulation rate in the Himalayan region and the Central Indian region have been estimated for seismic hazard analysis using continuous GPS measurements.

Tectonic and Geometric Control on Fault Kinematics of the 2021 Mw7.3 Maduo (China) Earthquake Inferred From Interseismic, Coseismic, and Postseismic InSAR Observations

AbstractThe 2021 Mw7.3 Maduo (Qinghai, China) earthquake ruptured ∼160 km along a poorly known secondary fault inside the Bayanhar block on the northern Tibetan plateau, which is generally parallel to the Kunlun fault. Here we integrate the interseismic (2015–2020) and coseismic geodetic observations to quantify the interseismic strain rate, fault geometry and coseismic slip distribution. Our results reveal that the seismogenic fault is featured by the low (&lt;20 nanostrain/yr) and nearly undetectable interseismic strain rate. Three‐dimensional displacement fields and coseismic strain maps demonstrate the spatial variations of rupture kinematics due to the change of fault geometry. Our study reveals the steeply north‐dipping fault geometry of the seismogenic fault. The majority of coseismic slip occurred between 0 and 15 km with slight shallow slip deficit, which not penetrates through the inferred elastic upper crust (∼20–25 km). Our study highlights the tectonic and geometric control on fault kinematics of the Maduo earthquake.

Diffuse Deformation and Surface Faulting Distribution from Submetric Image Correlation along the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, Ruptures

ABSTRACT The 2019 Mw 6.4 and 7.1 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake sequence (July 2019) ruptured consecutively a system of high-angle strike-slip cross faults (northeast- and northwest-trending) within 34 hr. The complex rupture mechanism was illuminated by seismological and geodetic data, bringing forward the issue of the interdependency of the two fault systems both at depth and at the surface, and of its effect on the final surface displacement pattern. Here, we use high-resolution (WorldView and Pleiades) optical satellite image correlation to measure the near-fault horizontal and vertical surface displacement fields at 0.5 m ground resolution for the two earthquakes. We point out significant differences with previous geodetic- and geologic-based measurements, and document the essential role of distributed faulting and diffuse deformation in producing the observed surface displacement patterns. We derive strain fields from the horizontal displacement maps, and highlight the predominant role of rotation and shear strain in the surface rupture process. We discuss the segmentation of the rupture based on the fault geometry and along-strike slip variations. We also image several northeast-trending faults with similar orientation to the deeply embedded shear fabric identified in aftershock studies, and show that these cross faults are present all along the rupture, including at a scale &amp;lt;100 m. Finally, we compare our results to kinematic slip inversions, and show that the surface diffuse deformation is primarily associated with areas of shallow slip deficit; however, this diffuse deformation cannot be explained using elastic modeling. We conclude that inelastic processes play an important role in contributing to the total surface deformation associated with the 2019 Ridgecrest sequence.

Rupture Kinematics and Coseismic Slip Model of the 2021 Mw 7.3 Maduo (China) Earthquake: Implications for the Seismic Hazard of the Kunlun Fault

The 21 May 2021 Maduo earthquake was the largest event to occur on a secondary fault in the interior of the active Bayanhar block on the north-central Tibetan plateau in the last twenty years. A detailed kinematic study of the Maduo earthquake helps us to better understand the seismogenic environments of the secondary faults within the block, and its relationship with the block-bounding faults. In this study, firstly, SAR images are used to obtain the coseismic deformation fields. Secondly, we use a strain model-based method and steepest descent method (SDM) to resolve the three-dimensional displacement components and to invert the coseismic slip distribution constrained by coseismic displacement fields, respectively. The three-dimensional displacement fields reveal a dominant left-lateral strike-slip motion, local horizontal displacement variations and widely distributed near-fault subsidence/uplift deformation. We prefer a five-segment fault slip model, with well constrained fault geometry featuring different dip angles and striking, constrained by InSAR observations. The peak coseismic slip is estimated to be ~5 m near longitude 98.9°E at a depth of ~4–7 km. Overall, the distribution of the coseismic slip on the fault is highly correlated to the measured surface displacement offsets along the entire rupture. We observe the moderate shallow slip deficit and limited afterslip deformation following the Maduo earthquake, it may indicate the effects of off-fault deformation during the earthquake and stable interseismic creep on the fault. The occurrence of the Maduo earthquake on a subsidiary fault updates the importance and the traditional estimate of the seismic hazards for the Kunlun fault.

Interseismic Slip and Coupling along the Haiyuan Fault Zone Constrained by InSAR and GPS Measurements

The Haiyuan fault zone is an important tectonic boundary and strong seismic activity belt in northeastern Tibet, but no major earthquake has occurred in the past ∼100 years, since the Haiyuan M8.5 event in 1920. The current state of strain accumulation and seismic potential along the fault zone have attracted significant attention. In this study, we obtained the interseismic deformation field along the Haiyuan fault zone using Envisat/ASAR data in the period 2003–2010, and inverted fault kinematic parameters including the long-term slip rate, locking degree and slip deficit distribution based on InSAR and GPS individually and jointly. The results show that there is near-surface creep in the Laohushan segment of about 19 km. The locking degree changes significantly along the strike with the western part reaching 17 km and the eastern part of 3–7 km. The long-term slip rate gradually decreases from west 4.7 mm/yr to east 2.0 mm/yr. As such, there is large strain accumulation along the western part of the fault and shallow creep along the Laohushan segment; while in the eastern section, the degree of strain accumulation is low, which suggests the rupture segments of the 1920 earthquake may have been not completely relocked.

Seismic and Geodetic Analysis of Rupture Characteristics of the 2020 Mw 6.5 Monte Cristo Range, Nevada, Earthquake

ABSTRACT The largest earthquake since 1954 to strike the state of Nevada, United States, ruptured on 15 May 2020 along the Monte Cristo range of west-central Nevada. The Mw 6.5 event involved predominantly left-lateral strike-slip faulting with minor normal components on three aligned east–west-trending faults that vary in strike by 23°. The kinematic rupture process is determined by joint inversion of Global Navigation Satellite Systems displacements, Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data, regional strong motions, and teleseismic P and SH waves, with the three-fault geometry being constrained by InSAR surface deformation observations, surface ruptures, and relocated aftershock distributions. The average rupture velocity is 1.5 km/s, with a peak slip of ∼1.6 m and a ∼20 s rupture duration. The seismic moment is 6.9×1018 N·m. Complex surface deformation is observed near the fault junction, with a deep near-vertical fault and a southeast-dipping fault at shallow depth on the western segment, along which normal-faulting aftershocks are observed. There is a shallow slip deficit in the Nevada ruptures, probably due to the immature fault system. The causative faults had not been previously identified and are located near the transition from the Walker Lane belt to the Basin and Range province. The east–west geometry of the system is consistent with the eastward extension of the Mina Deflection of the Walker Lane north of the White Mountains.

Geodetic Coupling Models as Constraints on Stochastic Earthquake Ruptures: An Example Application to PTHA in Cascadia

AbstractCurrent stochastic rupture modeling techniques do not consider the potential influence of inter‐seismic coupling, a first‐order property of a megathrust, which can show correlation between areas of high coupling and areas of greater slip as seen in recent large ruptures globally. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that it should be considered as prior information in rupture modeling. Here, we first present a mathematical formalism to introduce coupling models as prior information into stochastic rupture modeling. We then focus on how introducing slip deficit information into the stochastic rupture models influences slip distributions for the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ). We compare rupture models created with two end member models of coupling, one with a shallow coupling and another with coupling deeper downdip. We also discuss the comparison to models created without assuming knowledge of the coupling distribution except for variation in the downdip limit of slip. Variations occur and correlate well with areas with the largest differences in slip deficit rates. The ruptures are then used for regional probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment. Overall, the tsunami amplitudes generated are much more hazardous in the northern extent of the CSZ where differences in coupling distribution are more prevalent. Models obtained from assuming a shallower downdip limit have tsunami amplitudes more similar to those from the geodetic coupling models. Although uncertainties are present in the accuracy of coupling, imposing either constraint created different hazard estimations when compared to those where no prior coupling information was used.

Assessing Margin-Wide Rupture Behaviors Along the Cascadia Megathrust With 3-D Dynamic Rupture Simulations.

From California to British Columbia, the Pacific Northwest coast bears an omnipresent earthquake and tsunami hazard from the Cascadia subduction zone. Multiple lines of evidence suggests that magnitude eight and greater megathrust earthquakes have occurred ‐ the most recent being 321 years ago (i.e., 1700 A.D.). Outstanding questions for the next great megathrust event include where it will initiate, what conditions are favorable for rupture to span the convergent margin, and how much slip may be expected. We develop the first 3‐D fully dynamic rupture simulations for the Cascadia subduction zone that are driven by fault stress, strength and friction to address these questions. The initial dynamic stress drop distribution in our simulations is constrained by geodetic coupling models, with segment locations taken from geologic analyses. We document the sensitivity of nucleation location and stress drop to the final seismic moment and coseismic subsidence amplitudes. We find that the final earthquake size strongly depends on the amount of slip deficit in the central Cascadia region, which is inferred to be creeping interseismically, for a given initiation location in southern or northern Cascadia. Several simulations are also presented here that can closely approximate recorded coastal subsidence from the 1700 A.D. event without invoking localized high‐stress asperities along the down‐dip locked region of the megathrust. These results can be used to inform earthquake and tsunami hazards for not only Cascadia, but other subduction zones that have limited seismic observations but a wealth of geodetic inference.

On the Relevance of Geodetic Deformation Rates to Earthquake Potential

AbstractDespite the importance of viscoelasticity in the evolution of crustal stress/strain being widely recognized, the interpretation of interseismic geodetic measurements for assessing earthquake potential is still based overwhelmingly on elastic models. The reasons for this disparity include conflating deformation rates with deformation itself and the lack of a succinct representation of the seismic readiness of a locked fault in a viscoelastic Earth. Using a classical viscoelastic model for strike‐slip faults, we reiterate the commonly overlooked message that, if the recurrence interval is long, most of the strain energy for the next earthquake accrues early in the cycle, and low strain rates later in the cycle by no means indicate diminished rupture potential. Fault stress stays near failure for much of the late interseismic period which may explain why slow slip‐rate faults have more variable recurrence intervals than fast slip‐rate faults. We propose to use displacement deficit instead of slip deficit to represent seismic readiness.