Slip Deficit Rate Research Articles

Characterization of the active fault deformation zone of the Chegualin Fault in the alluvial plain of southwestern Taiwan

The activity of a creeping active fault poses significant challenges to engineering structures due to surface deformation. Therefore, quantifying the strain concentration caused by an active fault, delineating the extent and location of the Active Fault Deformation Zone (AFDZ), estimating long-term deformation trends, and predicting future deformations are crucial in the field of engineering geology.This study comprehensively integrates multi-timescale analytical methods by incorporating detailed geodetic data, rupture surveys, morphotectonic analysis, geological borehole data, biochronological data, radiocarbon dating, and Holocene uplift rate analysis to identify or confirm the locations of active faults and the long-term evolution trends of active deformation zones. Based on our findings, three active fault planes are identified, with one possibly being the main fault with the highest activity. Furthermore, by comparing long-term deformation rates derived from isochrone lines with short-term deformation rates obtained from leveling, we observe a risk of slip rate deficit. These findings have significant implications for engineering geology. As a general contribution, our study can serve as a site screening strategy for similar locations. Regarding the infrastructure we targeted, we provide critical input parameters for further numerical models (such as the trishear model) to simulate surface deformation, and offer essential design parameters for structures. Considering potential coseismic deformation on the investigated fault, these results are fundamental for future investigations or mitigation plans.

Geodetic plate coupling and seismic potential on the main Himalayan thrust in Nepal

We model interseismic plate coupling distribution on the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) in Nepal through the inversion of secular GNSS velocity data. To complement previously published data, we compile velocity data from ten additional continuous stations to improve spatial resolution in central and mid-western Nepal. A regional non-planar structural model is adopted to reproduce the MHT fault plane. In general, the coupling pattern seems nearly binary, indicating that transition from full coupling to decoupling is occurring sharply in very narrow zones. In eastern Nepal (> 84.5ºE), plate coupling is very strong from the surface to intermediate depths, including the source region of the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake. Geodetically estimated slip deficit rates are consistent with the rupture history of great earthquakes in the east revealed by geomorphological observations. In the west (< 83.0ºE), a weakly coupled zone extends laterally at intermediate depths, whereas the coupling in the shallower part remains very strong. Although the slip deficit rate in the west is significantly smaller than that in the east, seismic moment accumulated, since the last complete rupture in 1505 may be capable of generating a future great event. In central Nepal, estimated slip deficit rates are comparable with those in the east, and no great event has been documented over the past several centuries. Thus, the seismic risk may be most urgent in central Nepal. The development of local seismicity and crustal deformation should be carefully monitored.Graphical

An Updated Fault Coupling Model Along Major Block‐Bounding Faults on the Eastern and Northeastern Tibetan Plateau From a Stress‐Constrained Inversion of GPS and InSAR Data

AbstractLarge block‐bounding faults on the Tibetan plateau are significant geological structures that accommodate tectonic movements and accumulate stress, leading to large earthquakes. Quantifying the interseismic slip deficit rate helps to better assess the earthquake potential. We combine available InSAR (2015–2020) and interseismic GPS data to determine fault coupling along 14 major block‐bounding faults. Spatially dense InSAR measurements remarkably improve the resolution of the coupling model. Combined with a GPS‐constrained block model, we examine the performance of the inversion approach with the stress constraint and the common Laplacian smoothing based on both synthetic tests and real data. We suggest that, for continental strike‐slip faults, adding the stress constraint can mitigate unphysical coupling distributions due to unreasonable assumptions or modeling artifacts, reducing the model uncertainty and improving the accuracy of the coupling model. This is particularly useful for segments featured by a highly heterogeneous distribution of coupling along the transition zone from locking to creeping region, partially‐coupling segment, and junction zone between main and subsidiary faults. We present a large‐scale fault coupling map along the major block‐bounding faults on the northeastern and eastern Tibetan plateau, highlighting the distinct degrees of fault coupling and lateral variations. The collage of coupling maps along different faults demonstrates the kinematic features over a broad time scale during earthquake cycles ranging from early to late interseismic phases, such as the segments ruptured during the 2001 Kokoxili earthquake and the 1920 Haiyuan earthquake.

Interseismic slip distribution and locking characteristics of the mid-southern segment of the Tanlu fault zone

We employ the block negative dislocation model to invert the distribution of fault coupling and slip rate deficit on the different segments of the Tanlu (Tancheng-Lujiang) fault zone, according to the GPS horizontal velocity field from 1991 to 2007 (the first phase) and 2013 to 2018 (the second phase). By comparing the deformation characteristics results, we discuss the relationship between the deformation characteristics with the M earthquake in Japan. The results showed that the fault coupling rate of the northern section of Tancheng in the second phase reduced compared with that in the first phase. However, the results of the two phases showed that the northern section of Juxian still has a high coupling rate, a deep blocking depth, and a dextral compressive deficit, which is the enrapture section of the 1668 Tancheng earthquake. At the same time, the area strain results show that the strain rate of the central and eastern regions of the second phase is obviously enhanced compared with that of the first phase. The occurrence of the great earthquake in Japan has played a specific role in alleviating the strain accumulation in the middle and south sections of the Tanlu fault zone. The results of the maximum shear strain show that the shear strain in the middle section of the Tanlu fault zone in the second phase is weaker than that in the first phase, and the maximum shear strain in the southern section is stronger than that in the first phase. The fault coupling coefficient of the south Sihong to Jiashan section is high, and it is also the unruptured section of historical earthquakes. At the same time, small earthquakes in this area are not active and accumulate stress easily, so the future earthquake risk deserves attention.

Inverting Geodetic Strain Rates for Slip Deficit Rate in Complex Deforming Zones: An Application to the New Zealand Plate Boundary

AbstractThe potential for future earthquakes on faults is often inferred from inversions of geodetically derived surface velocities for locking on faults using kinematic models such as block models. This can be challenging in complex deforming zones with many closely spaced faults or where deformation is not readily described with block motions. Furthermore, surface strain rates are more directly related to coupling on faults than surface velocities. We present a methodology for estimating slip deficit rate directly from strain rate and apply it to New Zealand for the purpose of incorporating geodetic data in the 2022 revision of the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model. The strain rate inversions imply slightly higher slip deficit rates than the preferred geologic slip rates on sections of the major strike‐slip systems including the Alpine Fault, the Marlborough Fault System and the northern part of the North Island Fault System. Slip deficit rates are significantly lower than even the lowest geologic estimates on some strike‐slip faults in the southern North Island Fault System near Wellington. Over the entire plate boundary, geodetic slip deficit rates are systematically higher than geologic slip rates for faults slipping less than one mm/yr but lower on average for faults with slip rates between about 5 and 25 mm/yr. We show that 70%–80% of the total strain rate field can be attributed to elastic strain due to fault coupling. The remaining 20%–30% shows systematic spatial patterns of strain rate style that is often consistent with local geologic style of faulting.

Comparison of geodetic slip-deficit and geologic fault slip rates reveals that variability of elastic strain accumulation and release rates on strike-slip faults is controlled by the relative structural complexity of plate-boundary fault systems

Comparison of geodetic slip-deficit rates with geologic fault slip rates on major strike-slip faults reveals marked differences in patterns of elastic strain accumulation on tectonically isolated faults relative to faults that are embedded within more complex plate-boundary fault systems. Specifically, we show that faults that extend through tectonically complex systems characterized by multiple, mechanically complementary faults (that is, different faults that are all accommodating the same deformation field), which we refer to as high-Coefficient of Complexity (or high-CoCo) faults, exhibit ratios between geodetic and geologic rates that vary and that depend on the displacement scales over which the geologic slip rates are averaged. This indicates that elastic strain accumulation rates on these faults change significantly through time, which in turn suggests that the rates of ductile shear beneath the seismogenic portion of faults also vary through time. This is consistent with models in which mechanically complementary faults trade off slip in time and space in response to varying mechanical and stress conditions on the different component faults. In marked contrast, structurally isolated (or low-CoCo) faults exhibit geologic slip rates that are similar to geodetic slip-deficit rates, regardless of the displacement and time scales over which the slip rates are averaged. Such faults experience relatively constant geologic fault slip rates as well as constant strain accumulation rate (aside from brief, rapid post-seismic intervals). This suggests that low-CoCo faultsd "keep up" with the rate imposed by the relative plate-boundary condition, since they are the only structures in their respective plate-boundary zone that can effectively accommodate the imposed steady plate motion. We hypothesize that the discrepancies between the small-displacement average geologic slip rates and geodetic slip-deficit rates may provide a means of assessing a switch of modes for some high-CoCo faults, transitioning from a slow mode to a faster mode, or vice versa. If so, the differences between geologic slip rates and geodetic slip-deficit rates on high-CoCo faults may indicate changes in a fault's behavior that could be used to refine next-generation probabilistic seismic hazard assessments.

A pressure solution flow law for the seismogenic zone: Application to Cascadia.

We develop a linear viscous constitutive relationship for pressure solution constrained by models of deformed metasedimentary rocks and observations of exposed rocks from ancient subduction zones. We include pressure and temperature dependence on the solubility of silica in fluid by parameterizing a practical van't Hoff relationship. This general flow law is well suited for making predictions about interseismic behavior of subduction zones. We apply the flow law to Cascadia, where thermal structure, geometry, relative plate velocity, and Global Positioning System velocity field are well constrained. Results are consistent with the temperature conditions at which resolvable ductile strain is recorded in subducted mudstones (at depths near the updip limit of the seismogenic zone) and with relative plate motion accommodated completely by viscous deformation (at depths near the downdip limit of the seismogenic zone). The flow law also predicts the observed forearc tapering of slip rate deficit with depth.

Present-day movement characteristics of the Qinghai Nanshan fault and its surrounding area from GPS observation

The Qinghai Nanshan fault is a larger fault in the Northeastern Xizang Plateau. In previous studies, its movement characteristics are mainly investigated with geological and seismic observations, and the tectonic transformation role of the fault on its east is not yet clear. This study uses data fusion to obtain denser GPS observations near the Qinghai Nanshan fault. Based on tectonic characteristics, we establish a block model to investigate the fault slip rate, locking degree, and slip deficit. The results show that the Qinghai Nanshan fault slip rate is characterized by sinistral and convergent movement. Both the sinistral and convergent rates display a decreasing trend from west to east. The locking degree and slip deficit are higher in the western segment (with an average of about 0.74 and 1.1 mm/a) and lower in the eastern segment. Then, we construct a strain rate field using GPS observations to analyze the regional strain characteristics. The results indicate that along the fault, the western segment shows a larger shear strain rate and negative dilation rate. Regional earthquake records show that the frequency of earthquakes is lower near the fault. The joint results suggest that the western segment may have a higher earthquake risk. In addition, the insignificant fault slip rate in the eastern segment may indicate that it does not participate in the tectonic transformation among the Riyueshan, Lajishan, and West Qinling faults.

Upper Plate and Subduction Interface Deformation Models in the 2022 Revision of the Aotearoa New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model

ABSTRACT As part of the 2022 revision of the Aotearoa New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model (NZ NSHM 2022), deformation models were constructed for the upper plate faults and subduction interfaces that impact ground-shaking hazard in New Zealand. These models provide the locations, geometries, and slip rates of the earthquake-producing faults in the NZ NSHM 2022. For upper plate faults, two deformation models were developed: a geologic model derived directly from the fault geometries and geologic slip rates in the NZ Community Fault Model version 1.0 (NZ CFM v.1.0); and a geodetic model that uses the same faults and fault geometries and derives fault slip-deficit rates by inverting geodetic strain rates for back slip on those specified faults. The two upper plate deformation models have similar total moment rates, but the geodetic model has higher slip rates on low-slip-rate faults, and the geologic model has higher slip rates on higher-slip-rate faults. Two deformation models are developed for the Hikurangi–Kermadec subduction interface. The Hikurangi–Kermadec geometry is a linear blend of the previously published interface models. Slip-deficit rates on the Hikurangi portion of the deformation model are updated from the previously published block models, and two end member models are developed to represent the alternate hypotheses that the interface is either frictionally locked or creeping at the trench. The locking state in the Kermadec portion is less well constrained, and a single slip-deficit rate model is developed based on plate convergence rate and coupling considerations. This single Kermadec realization is blended with each of the two Hikurangi slip-deficit rate models to yield two overall Hikurangi–Kermadec deformation models. The Puysegur subduction interface deformation model is based on geometry taken directly from the NZ CFM v.1.0, and a slip-deficit rate derived from published geodetic plate convergence rate and interface coupling estimates.

Study of the Interseismic Deformation and Locking Depth along the Xidatan–Dongdatan Segment of the East Kunlun Fault Zone, Northeast Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, Based on Sentinel-1 Interferometry

The East Kunlun fault zone (EKFZ), located northeast of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, has experienced several strong earthquakes of magnitude seven or above since 1900. It is one of the most active fault systems and is characterized by left-lateral strike-slip. However, the Xidatan–Dongdatan segment (XDS) of the East Kunlun fault zone (EKFZ) has had no earthquakes for many years, and the Kunlun Mountains MS 8.1 earthquake has a stress loading effect on this segment, so it is widely regarded as a high-risk earthquake gap. To this end, we collected the Sentinel-1 data of the XDS of the EKFZ from July 2014 to July 2019 and obtained the high-precision interseismic deformation field by the Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) technique to obtain the slip rate and locking depth of the XDS of the EKFZ, and the seismic potential of the segment was analyzed. The results are as follows: (1) The LOS deformation field of the XDS of the EKFZ was obtained using Sentinel-1 data of ascending and descending orbits, which indicated that the XDS of the EKFZ is dominated by horizontal motion. Combined with the interference results, it is shown that the strike-slip rate dominates the deformation information of the XDS of the EKFZ. The deep strike-slip rate of the fault is about 6 mm/yr, the deep dip-slip rate is about 2 mm/yr, and the slip-deficit rate on the fault surface is about 6 mm/yr; (2) Combined with the spiral dislocation theory model, the slip rate of the XDS to Xiugou Basin of the EKFZ has a gradually increasing trend, with an average slip rate of 9.6 ± 2.3 mm/yr and a locking depth of 29 ± 5 m; (3) The stress accumulation is about 483 ± 92 years in the XDS of the EKFZ, indicating that the cumulative elastic strain energy of the XDS can produce an MW 7.29 ± 0.1 earthquake in the future.

Slip Deficit Rates on Southern Cascadia Faults Resolved with Viscoelastic Earthquake Cycle Modeling of Geodetic Deformation

ABSTRACT The fore-arc of the southern Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ), north of the Mendocino triple junction (MTJ), is home to a network of Quaternary-active crustal faults that accumulate strain due to the interaction of the North American, Juan de Fuca (Gorda), and Pacific plates. These faults, including the Little Salmon and Mad River fault (LSF and MRF) zones, are located near the most populated parts of California’s north coast and show paleoseismic evidence for three slip events of several-meter scale in the past 1700 yr. However, the geodetic slip rates of these faults are poorly constrained. In this work, we analyze a new compilation of interseismic geodetic velocities from Global Navigation Satellite Systems, leveling, and tide gauge data near the MTJ to constrain present-day slip deficit rates on upper-plate faults and coupling on the megathrust. We construct Green’s functions for interseismic slip deficit for discrete faults embedded in an elastic plate overlying a viscoelastic mantle. We then use a constrained least-squares inversion to determine best-fitting slip rates on the major faults and investigate slip rate trade-offs between faults. Results indicate that the LSF and MRF systems together accumulate 4–5 mm/yr of reverse-slip deficit, although their separate slip rates cannot be determined independently. Modeling of the horizontal and vertical velocities suggests that the southernmost CSZ is coupled interseismically to deeper than 25 km depth. We also find that 6–17 mm/yr of right-lateral slip deficit extends north of the MTJ and into the southern Cascadia fore-arc. These results reinforce the notion that both the southernmost Cascadia megathrust and the smaller fore-arc faults above it contribute to regional seismic hazard.

Link between the Nankai underthrust turbidites and shallow slow earthquakes

Trench sediments such as pelagic clay or terrigenous turbidites have long been invoked to explain the seismogenic behavior of the megathrust fault (i.e., décollement). Recent numerous studies suggest that slow earthquakes may be associated with huge megathrust earthquake; however, controls on the slow earthquake occurrence remain poorly understood. We investigate seismic reflection data along the Nankai Trough subduction zone to understand the correlations between the spatial distribution of the broad turbidites and along-strike variations in shallow slow earthquakes and slip-deficit rates. This report presents a unique map of regional distribution of the three discrete Miocene turbidites that underthrust apparently along the décollement beneath the Nankai accretionary prism. A comparison of distributions of the Nankai underthrust turbidites, shallow slow earthquakes, and slip-deficit rates enables us to infer that the underthrust turbidites may cause primarily low pore-fluid overpressures and high effective vertical stresses across the décollement, leading to potentially inhibiting the slow earthquake occurrence. Our findings provide a new insight into potential role of the underthrust turbidites for shallow slow earthquakes at subduction zone.

A Crustal Deformation Pattern on the Northeastern Margin of the Tibetan Plateau Derived from GPS Observations

The northeastern margin is a natural experimental field for studying crustal extrusion and expansion mechanisms. The accurate crustal deformation pattern is a key point in the analysis of regional deformation mechanisms and seismic hazard research and judgment. In this paper, the present-day GPS velocity field on the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau was obtained from encrypted GPS observations around the Haiyuan–Liupanshan fault zone, combined with GPS observations on the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau from 2010 to 2020. Firstly, we divided the study area into three relatively independent blocks: the ORDOS block, Alxa block, and Lanzhou block; secondly, the accurate fault distribution of the Haiyuan–Liupanshan fault zone was taken into account to obtain the optimal inversion model; finally, using the block and fault back-slip dislocation model, the inversion obtained the slip rate distribution, locking depth, and slip deficit rate of each fault. The results indicate that the Laohushan Fault and Haiyuan Fault are dominated by the left-lateral strike-slip, while the Liupanshan Fault is dominated by the thrust dip-slip, and the Guguan–Baoji Fault has both left-lateral strike-slip and thrust dip-slip components. The maximum locking depths of the Laohushan Fault, Haiyuan Fault, Liupanshan Fault, and Guguan–Baoji Fault are 5 km, 13 km, 15 km, and 10 km, respectively, and the locking of the Haiyuan Fault is strong in the middle section and weak in the eastern and western section. The Haiyuan Fault is still in the post-earthquake stress adjustment stage. The slip deficit rate decays from 3.6 mm/yr to 1.8 mm/yr from west to east along the fault zone. Combined with geological and historical seismic data, the results suggest that the mid-long-term seismic risk in the Liupanshan Fault is high.

Present-day kinematics and seismic potential of the Ganzi-Yushu fault, eastern Tibetan plateau, constrained from InSAR

In recent years, earthquakes have occurred frequently on the southeastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau, and the seismic hazard is high. However, because of the remote location of the Ganzi-Yushu fault zone, no high-resolution geodetic measurements of this region have been made. The radar line-of-sight deformation field of the Ganzi-Yushu fault was obtained using seven-track ascending and descending Sentinel-A/B interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data from 2014 to 2020. Using the InSAR and published Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data, we calculated the 3D deformation field in the study area, investigated the segment-specific fault slip rate, and inverted the fault slip distribution pattern using the steepest descent method. We then evaluated the seismic hazard using the strain rate field and slip deficit rate. The main findings of this study include the following. 1) The slip rate of the Ganzi-Yushu fault gradually increases from 2.5 to 6.8 mm/yr from northwest to southeast. 2) A high-resolution strain rate map shows high-value anomalies in the Yushu and Dangjiang areas. 3) Our comprehensive analysis suggests that the seismic hazard of the Dangjiang and Dengke segments with high slip deficits cannot be ignored.

Anelastic deformation in the lower crust and its implications for tectonic dynamics in Kyushu, Southwest Japan

Most of the seismicity in inland Kyushu, southwest Japan occur in the localized intraplate shear zones which are Beppu-Shimabara Graben (BSG) and left-lateral shear zone (LSZ). One of the largest fault systems in Japan (Median Tectonic Line—MTL), and subduction zone of the Philippine Sea Plate also exist near Kyushu. These suggest that the island arc, such as Kyushu has a complex deformation process. This study estimated the anelastic strain rate in the lower crust and the interplate coupling rate via inversion analysis using Global Navigation Satellite System data to elucidate the seismotectonics. Deformation in the lower crust and interplate coupling were modeled by cuboid volumetric sources and a back slip model, respectively. To stabilize the solution, a L2 regularization constraint was applied to the anelastic strain rate. Further, constraints on direction and smoothing to the slip deficit rate were applied. These strength of the constraints were determined via the minimum value of the Akaike Bayesian information criterion. The analyses showed that the anelastic strain rate of the BSG and LSZ was ∼0.6 ×10−6 yr−1, and BSG was related to MTL activity. The findings also suggest that this anelastic deformation in the lower crust created a stress concentration zone in the upper crust of BSG and LSZ, with a stress change rate of ∼6–10 kPa·yr−1. The value is consistent with the stress drop and recurrence interval of regional earthquakes, suggesting that the seismicity around BSG and LSZ is strongly influenced by anelastic deformation in the lower crust. It is also suggested that BSG and LSZ development is influenced by slab rollback, and a subducting ridge. Lastly, a comparison between the deviatoric stress field estimated using focal mechanisms and the anelastic strain rate suggests the existence of a shear zone consisting of weak faults south of BSG.

Structural Heterogeneity of the Alaska‐Aleutian Forearc: Implications for Interplate Coupling and Seismogenic Behaviors

AbstractWe determine high‐resolution 3‐D seismic images (Vp, Vs, and Vp/Vs) of the Alaska‐Aleutian forearc region, which are used to further estimate the serpentinization volume fraction of the subducting Pacific slab. Our results show that the hydration degree of the lower plate is high in the Shumagin Gap but relatively low in the Semidi and Kodiak segments, which roughly shows a trend of eastward decrease that is correlated with an increase of the interseismic slip deficit rate. The variation of slab serpentinization degree derived from our Vp model shows an uneven decreasing trend, well consistent with the along‐strike segmentation of interplate coupling and coseismic slip distributions of the 2020 Mw 7.8 Simeonof and 2021 Mw 8.2 Chignik megathrust earthquakes. The 2020 Mw 7.6 Sand Point earthquake took place within the strongly hydrated slab, whose occurrence was probably related to the variation of slip deficit rate that is probably affected by the changes in plate hydration. In addition, slow earthquakes occurred between the hydrated slab with pre‐subduction structures (e.g., bending faults, seamounts, and fracture zones) and the fluid‐saturated overriding crust and mantle wedge, where the intraslab seismicity and dehydration are intensive. These features suggest that lower‐plate hydration and dehydration may affect the interplate coupling and seismogenic behaviors in subduction zones.

Fluid flowrates and compositions and water–rock interaction in the Hikurangi margin forearc, New Zealand

The decrease in interseismic coupling and slip rate deficit from south to north, from locked to slipping, of the Hikurangi margin is attributed from interpretation of geophysical data to more fluid-saturated sediments in the north. To assess this interpretation, fluid flowrates were measured in springs of the subaerial forearc, structures correlated with flowrates and the fluids geochemically and isotopically evaluated to understand their origins and source depths. Extrapolations from on-ground measurements show that ∼95% of aqueous fluids and ∼98% of gas are expelled to the surface in the slipping zone, within the northern subaerial forearc. The relative fluid residence time, from the equilibration of CH4 and CO2 and measured ascent rates, is 3x shorter in the slipping zone suggesting less constricted migration pathways than in the locked zone. Fluids are expelled not only from the sediments that produce Na–Cl fluids and thermogenic gas, but also from the oceanic igneous mafic slab that releases high-Cl fluids and abiotic CH4 from serpentinization, giving rise to Na–Ca–Cl fluids. Chloride-rich surface emissions consist of ∼70% by volume Na–Cl and ∼30% Na–Ca–Cl fluids. Higher rates of fluid expulsion in the north coincide with higher permeability and greater production of aqueous fluids from clay dehydration, serpentinization and a higher degree of diagenesis in sedimentary rocks. Mantle gas, subduction interface fluids and porewaters have the most direct access to the surface in the slipping Center, where the degree of water–rock interaction and homogeneity of water compositions suggest more recent fluid generation than other sectors in the subaerial forearc. Porewaters and thermogenic gas equilibrate at 110° + 20 °C with a slight increase in temperature from south to north. Overall, ∼120 Tg/a water is subducted in the Hikurangi margin and <0.5 Tg/a CH4 is being emitted to the atmosphere. This study shows the added impact of waters of serpentinization on the overall fluid compositions, aqueous fluid subduction budget, extent of fluid distribution in the oceanic slab and, indirectly, the temperature estimate of 185° + 25 °C for fluids ascending from the subduction interface in the Hikurangi margin.

Simulation of great earthquakes along the Nankai Trough: reproduction of event history, slip areas of the Showa Tonankai and Nankai earthquakes, heterogeneous slip-deficit rates, and long-term slow slip events

Great earthquakes have occurred repeatedly along the Nankai Trough, but only for recent events are details known, such as rupture areas and time lags between paired events. It is meaningful for disaster prevention to consider in advance what kind of phenomena are likely after an earthquake that partially ruptures a seismogenic zone in this region. We constructed three-dimensional simulations to partially reproduce the spatial and temporal distribution of seismic or aseismic slip and the heterogeneous distribution of the slip-deficit rate beneath the seafloor on the plate boundary along the Nankai Trough. We found it necessary to assign spatial heterogeneity to two friction parameters, the effective normal stress and characteristic distance, based on a hierarchical asperity model. Our model produced many event pairs consisting of events east and west of Cape Shiono (Tokai/Tonankai and Nankai events, respectively), nearly all of them either simultaneous or separated by less than 3 years. The rupture areas of these event pairs were rich in variation, and even when the rupture areas were the same, the magnitudes and maximum displacements differed. The Tonankai earthquakes rarely occurred alone. Our model also simulated recurring long-term slow slip events in deeper parts of the seismogenic zone, and these events were caused by stress disturbance and heterogeneous stress distributions associated with non-ruptured portions of the seismogenic zone.Graphical

Fault locking of the Qilian–Haiyuan fault zone before the 2022 Menyuan Ms6.9 earthquake and its seismic hazards in the future

By using GPS-derived velocities of 2015–2021 and a negative dislocation program, we inverted the locking degree and slip rate deficit in the Qilian–Haiyuan fault zone, and combined with the distribution of small earthquakes in the fault, we studied the characteristics before the 2022 Menyuan MS6.9 earthquake and analyzed the future seismic hazards of each segment within this fault zone. The regional crustal deformation pattern is discussed with regard to the fault slip rate and regional strain rate field. The preliminary results show that before the earthquake, the seismogenic fault was strong locked, with a high locking depth, the slip rate deficit was large, and the distribution of small earthquakes was relatively few, these characteristics are closely related to the occurrence of strong earthquakes, according to the aftershock relocation results, further, it is believed that the earthquake may link the Lenglongling and Tuolaishan faults into a large strike-slip fault. The Jinqianghe fault, the Lenglongling fault, and the eastern segment of the Tuolaishan fault are strongly locked, with high locking depth and large slip rate deficit, combined with the occurrence of small earthquakes and the locking degree before the 2022 Menyuan MS6.9 earthquake, indicate that the eastern segment of the Tuolaishan fault is highly likely to have strong earthquakes in the future, which requires further attention. In addition, the strike-slip rate of the Qilian–Haiyuan fault zone is mainly between 3.9 and 4.3 mm/yr, the overall movement of the fault is consistent, and the compressional rate gradually decreases from 2.9 mm/yr in the western segment to 1 mm/yr in the eastern segment; the fault compressional rate may be related to the crustal shortening (formation basin and uplift mountain). Therefore, the present-day crustal deformation in the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau is mainly distributed in the shortened region of the crust on the Qilian Shan area and left-lateral strike-slip localized on the Qilian–Haiyuan fault zone.

Interseismic Masking of Fault Slip Deficit Rates by Earthquake Cycle Processes and Local Block Rotations

Abstract Interseismic geodetic observations at active boundaries contain information about tectonic motions and earthquake cycle processes. The combined effects of these two processes may serve to mask tectonic signals near active faults. Motivated by the observation of coseismic rotational motion during the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikōura New Zealand earthquake we develop idealized models for the masking of tectonic motions near blocks with local rotation poles. We show that differential interseismic velocities may reach local, rather than far field, maxima contributing to suppression of apparent slip deficit rates. This effect is most pronounced for small (&amp;lt;100 km) tectonic blocks with deep (&amp;gt;10 km) effective locking depths.