Slip Deficit Rate Research Articles

Spatiotemporal distributions of interplate coupling in Tohoku, northeast Japan, for 14 years prior to the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake inverted from GNSS data

We extracted tectonic crustal deformation caused by the interplate coupling between the Pacific and North American plates from GNSS time series data at land-based stations in the Tohoku district, northeastern Japan, during the period from 21 March 1996 to 7 March 2011. Next, we estimated the spatiotemporal distributions of the slip deficit rates between the two plates prior to the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake for the 1997–2010 period by performing time-dependent inversion analysis. As a result, two strongly coupled regions were identified. One is located off the coast of Iwate Prefecture, whose reliability may not be high, where coseismic slip of the Tohoku-oki earthquake was small, indicating that this area may be a source region for a future megathrust earthquake. The other is a region with strong and continuous interplate coupling of more than 8 cm/yr from 1997 to 2010 in and around the epicenter of the Tohoku-oki earthquake. This area coincides with the area where coseismic slip greater than 20 m was estimated. Decrease of interplate coupling by approximately 0.4 cm/yr was identified at the downdip side of the region during the period from 2003 to 2008, reaching a coupling of 1.5 cm/yr in 2008, which would yield an increase in shear stress at its shallower strongly coupled region. We also identified that in 2010, the strongly coupled region rapidly expanded in southwestern and downdip directions. These results suggest that the shear stressing rate in the strongly coupled region might be accelerated, reaching rupture strength because of these two effects, thereby causing the main shock.

Acceleration of Deep Slip Along the Longmenshan Fault Plane Before the 2008 M8.0 Wenchuan Earthquake

The first step toward earthquake forecasting is the identification of variables whose spatio-temporal variation can be connected with pre-seismic crustal deformation. Four periods of campaign Global Positioning System (GPS) observations around the Longmenshan fault zone (LFZ) provide important insights in crustal deformation and deep fault slip before the 2008 M8.0 Wenchuan earthquake. By using TDEFNODE to invert the coupling fraction and dynamic slip deficit rate of the Longmenshan fault plane before the Wenchuan earthquake, we show that under a background of strong coupling, the compressive slip deficit rate perpendicular to fault increased slightly at first and then decreased; a value of ∼1.5–3.6 mm/a along the central–southern segment from 1999 to 2001 increased to ∼1.9–3.9 mm/a from 2001 to 2004, and then decreased to ∼1.1–2.6 mm/a from 2004 to 2007. The dextral slip deficit rate parallel to fault was ∼6 mm/a from 1999 to 2004, before increasing significantly to ∼9.5 mm/a from 2004 to 2007, when the compressive slip deficit rate decreased. At the same time, large-scale GPS velocity profiles show that compressive shortening deformation in the Eastern Tibet Block, perpendicular to fault, increased slightly from 2001 to 2004, and then decreased from 2004 to 2007. Meanwhile, the dextral shear deformation parallel to fault near the LFZ increased significantly from 2004 to 2007. These findings are in good agreement with those calculated using repeating earthquake sequences, indicating that the deep slip rate of the Longmenshan fault plane may have accelerated several years before the Wenchuan earthquake. Our results demonstrate that GPS data can record pre-seismic preparatory processes, and have the potential for use in medium-term large earthquake forecasting.

Dual threshold search method for asperity boundary determination based on geodetic and seismic catalog data

As an important model for explaining the seismic rupture mode, the asperity model plays an important role in studying the stress accumulation of faults and the location of earthquake initiation. Taking Qilian-Haiyuan fault as an example, this paper combines geodetic method and b-value method to propose a multi-source observation data fusion detection method that accurately determines the asperity boundary named dual threshold search method. The method is based on the criterion that the b-value asperity boundary should be most consistent with the slip deficit rate asperity boundary. Then the optimal threshold combination of slip deficit rate and b-value is obtained through threshold search, which can be used to determine the boundary of the asperity. Based on this method, the study finds that there are four potential asperities on the Qilian-Haiyuan fault: two asperities (A1 and A2) are on the Tuolaishan segment and the other two asperities (B and C) are on Lenglongling segment and Jinqianghe segment, respectively. Among them, the lengths of asperities A1 and A2 on Tuolaishan segment are 17.0 km and 64.8 km, respectively. And the lower boundaries are 5.5 km and 15.5 km, respectively; The length of asperity B on Lenglongling segment is 70.7 km, and the lower boundary is 10.2 km. The length of asperity C on Jinqianghe segment is 42.3 km, and the lower boundary is 8.3 km.

Interseismic Fault Coupling and Slip Rate Deficit on the Central and Southern Segments of the Tanlu Fault Zone Based on Anhui CORS Measurements

The Tanlu fault zone, extending over 2400 km from South China to Russia, is one of the most conspicuous tectonic elements in eastern Asia. In this study, we processed the Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements of Anhui Continuously Operating Reference System (AHCORS) between January 2013 and June 2018 to derive a high-precision velocity field in the central and southern segments of the Tanlu fault zone. We integrated the AHCORS data with those publicly available for geodetic imaging of the interseismic coupling and slip rate deficit distribution in the central and southern segments of the Tanlu fault zone. This work aims at a better understanding of strain accumulation and future seismic hazard in the Tanlu fault zone. The result indicates lateral variation of coupling distribution along the strike of the Tanlu fault zone. The northern segment of the Tanlu fault zone has a larger slip rate deficit and a deeper locking depth than the southern segment. Then, we analyzed three velocity profiles across the fault. The result suggests that the central and southern segments of the Tanlu fault zone are characterized by right-lateral strike-slip (0.29–0.44 mm/y) with compression components (0.35–0.76 mm/y). Finally, we estimated strain rates using the least-squares collocation method. The result shows that the dilatation rates concentrate in the region where the principal strain rates are very large. The interface of extension and compression is always accompanied by sudden change of direction of principal strain rates. Especially, in the north of Anhui, the dilatation rate is largest, reaching 3.780×10−8/a. Our study suggests that the seismic risk in the northern segment of the Tanlu fault zone remains very high for its strong strain accumulation and the lack of historical large earthquakes.

Dynamic deformation and fault locking of the Xianshuihe Fault Zone, Southeastern Tibetan Plateau: implications for seismic hazards

The Xianshuihe Fault Zone is one of the most historically seismically active regions in mainland China. However, the seismicity along this fault zone has been quiescent for the past 40 years, since the Daofu M6.9 earthquake in 1981. Understanding its current deformation patterns and fault coupling characteristics is of great significance to estimate the potential risk of strong earthquakes. In this study, we analyzed the dynamic deformation and fault coupling characteristics along the Xianshuihe Fault Zone using Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data for 1999–2007 and 2016–2020. The results show that the deformation pattern of the Xianshuihe fault zone underwent a dynamic adjustment after the 2008 Wenchuan Mw7.9 and 2013 Lushan Mw6.6 earthquakes, i.e., the maximum shear strain accumulation rates of the Luhuo and Daofu sections significantly decreased from 6.0 × 10–8/a to 3.2 × 10–8/a, while that of the southeastern segment (i.e., Kangding and Moxi sections) increased from 4.5 × 10–8/a to 6.2 × 10–8/a. Additionally, the slip rate and deformation width of the Xianshuihe Fault Zone also changed during these two periods. Combined with the near-field cross-fault observation data, we suggest that the surrounding strong earthquakes Wenchuan and Lushan had evident differential impacts on the deformation pattern of the Xianshuihe Fault Zone. The fault-coupling inversion results show that the locking degree of the Xianshuihe Fault Zone continued to increase after the Wenchuan and Lushan earthquakes, especially the Qianning and Moxi sections increased significantly, with an average coupling coefficient of greater than 0.9 and left-lateral slip-rate deficits of ~ 5 mm/a and ~ 8 mm/a, respectively. In contrast, the locking degree of the Kangding section decreased with almost no slip-rate deficit, which is in a state of creeping status. The analysis of the recent rupture history and strain accumulation characteristics of the Xianshuihe Fault Zone indicates that both the Qianning and Moxi sections have a high seismic potential for the next strong earthquake in the Xianshuihe Fault Zone.Graphical

Slip rate deficit partitioned by fault-fold system on the active Haiyuan fault zone, Northeastern Tibetan Plateau

This study focuses on the complexity of fault-fold system developed in the Hasishan section of the Haiyuan fault zone in the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau, along which a 237-km-long coseismic surface rupture zone formed during the 1920 M 8.5 Haiyuan earthquake. Interpretations of satellite imageries combined with field investigations and structural analyses of fault geometry and kinematics reveal that the fault-fold system developed in the Hasishan section are characterized by four main elements (i) the left-lateral strike-slip Haiyuan primary fault F1; (ii) a discrete branch fault F2 with an identical sense of movement; (iii) a tension structure, characterized by a NE-trending normal fault F3 developed in piedmont terrace deposits; and (iv) a compression structure P, characterized by a NW-trending en echelon folds within the Cretaceous–Cenozoic sedimentary sequences including the most recent late Pleistocene–Holocene unconsolidated and/or weakly-consolidated deposits. Previous geologic and geophysical observations show that the slip rate along the whole Haiyuan fault zone is non-uniform, indicating an eastward decrease with a gradient of ∼2.65 mm/100 km. In contrast, the slip rate for the primary fault F1 in the Hasishan section was reported to be 3.2 ± 0.2 mm/yr, ∼3 mm/yr less than the result of 6.2 mm/yr inferred from the slip rate gradient. The finding in this study demonstrates that the fault-fold system consisting of faults F2, F3, and fold P has partitioned ∼3 mm/yr slip within the Hasishan section of the Haiyuan fault zone. This study documents that the slip rates at different sections along the primary strike-slip faults are partially dependent on local geometric structure and fault complexity, and the recognition and analyses of related fault-fold system within large strike-slip fault zone are important for better characterizing the total slip rate budget across primary strike-slip faults, which will contribute to improve seismic hazard assessments.

A Global Set of Subduction Zone Earthquake Scenarios and Recurrence Intervals Inferred From Geodetically Constrained Block Models of Interseismic Coupling Distributions

AbstractThe past 100 years have seen the occurrence of five earthquakes and 94 earthquakes. Here we assess the potential for future great earthquakes using inferences of interseismic subduction zone coupling from a global block model incorporating both tectonic plate motions and earthquake cycle effects. Interseismic earthquake cycle effects are represented using a first‐order quasistatic elastic approximation and include of interacting fault system area across the globe. We use estimated spatial variations in decadal‐duration coupling at 15 subduction zones and the Himalayan range front to estimate the locations and magnitudes of potential seismic events using empirical scaling relationships relating coupled area to moment magnitude. As threshold coupling values increase, estimates of potential earthquake magnitudes decrease, but the total number of large earthquakes varies non‐monotonically. These rupture scenarios include as many as 14 recent or potential earthquakes globally and up to 18 distinct events associated with a single subduction zone (South America). We also combine estimated slip deficit rates and potential event magnitudes to calculate recurrence intervals for large earthquake scenarios, finding that almost all potential earthquakes would have a recurrence time of less than 1,000 years.

Estimation of crustal deformation parameters and strain build-up in Northwest Himalaya using GNSS data measurements

GPS measurements have proved extremely useful in quantifying strain accumulation rate and assessing seismic hazard in a region. Continuous GPS measurements provide estimates of secular motion used to understand the earthquake and other geodynamic processes. GNSS stations extending from the South of India to the Higher Himalayan region have been used to quantify the strain build-up rate in Central India and the Himalayan region to assess the seismic hazard potential in this realm. Velocity solution has been determined after the application of Markov noise estimated from GPS time series data. The recorded GPS data are processed along with the closest International GNSS stations data for estimation of daily basis precise positioning. The baseline method has been used for the estimation of the linear strain rate between the two stations. Whereas the principal strain axes, maximum shear strain, rotation rate, and crustal shortening rate has been calculated through the site velocity using an independent approach; least-square inversion approach-based triangulation method. The strain rate analysis estimated by the triangulation approach exhibits a mean value of extension rate of 26.08 nano-strain/yr towards N131°, the compression rate of –25.38 nano-strain/yr towards N41°, maximum shear strain rate of 51.47 nano-strain/yr, dilation of –37.57 nano-strain/yr and rotation rate of 0.7°/Ma towards anti-clockwise. The computed strain rate from the Baseline method and the Triangulation method reports an extensive compression rate that gradually increases from the Indo-Gangetic Plain in South to Higher Himalaya in North. The slip deficit rate between India and Eurasia Plate in Kumaun Garhwal Himalaya has been computed as 18±1.5 mm/yr based on elastic dislocation theory. Thus, in this study, present-day surface deformation rate and interseismic strain accumulation rate in the Himalayan region and the Central Indian region have been estimated for seismic hazard analysis using continuous GPS measurements.

Interseismic Slip and Coupling along the Haiyuan Fault Zone Constrained by InSAR and GPS Measurements

The Haiyuan fault zone is an important tectonic boundary and strong seismic activity belt in northeastern Tibet, but no major earthquake has occurred in the past ∼100 years, since the Haiyuan M8.5 event in 1920. The current state of strain accumulation and seismic potential along the fault zone have attracted significant attention. In this study, we obtained the interseismic deformation field along the Haiyuan fault zone using Envisat/ASAR data in the period 2003–2010, and inverted fault kinematic parameters including the long-term slip rate, locking degree and slip deficit distribution based on InSAR and GPS individually and jointly. The results show that there is near-surface creep in the Laohushan segment of about 19 km. The locking degree changes significantly along the strike with the western part reaching 17 km and the eastern part of 3–7 km. The long-term slip rate gradually decreases from west 4.7 mm/yr to east 2.0 mm/yr. As such, there is large strain accumulation along the western part of the fault and shallow creep along the Laohushan segment; while in the eastern section, the degree of strain accumulation is low, which suggests the rupture segments of the 1920 earthquake may have been not completely relocked.

Geodetic Coupling Models as Constraints on Stochastic Earthquake Ruptures: An Example Application to PTHA in Cascadia

AbstractCurrent stochastic rupture modeling techniques do not consider the potential influence of inter‐seismic coupling, a first‐order property of a megathrust, which can show correlation between areas of high coupling and areas of greater slip as seen in recent large ruptures globally. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that it should be considered as prior information in rupture modeling. Here, we first present a mathematical formalism to introduce coupling models as prior information into stochastic rupture modeling. We then focus on how introducing slip deficit information into the stochastic rupture models influences slip distributions for the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ). We compare rupture models created with two end member models of coupling, one with a shallow coupling and another with coupling deeper downdip. We also discuss the comparison to models created without assuming knowledge of the coupling distribution except for variation in the downdip limit of slip. Variations occur and correlate well with areas with the largest differences in slip deficit rates. The ruptures are then used for regional probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment. Overall, the tsunami amplitudes generated are much more hazardous in the northern extent of the CSZ where differences in coupling distribution are more prevalent. Models obtained from assuming a shallower downdip limit have tsunami amplitudes more similar to those from the geodetic coupling models. Although uncertainties are present in the accuracy of coupling, imposing either constraint created different hazard estimations when compared to those where no prior coupling information was used.

Slip rate deficit and earthquake potential on shallow megathrusts

Most destructive tsunamis are caused by seismic slip on the shallow part of offshore megathrusts. The likelihood of this behaviour is partly determined by the interseismic slip rate deficit, which is often assumed to be low based on frictional studies of shallow fault material. Here, we present a new method for inferring the slip rate deficit from geodetic data that accounts for the stress shadow cast by frictionally locked patches, and show that this approach greatly improves our offshore resolution. We apply this technique to the Cascadia and Japan Trench megathrusts and find that, wherever locked patches are present, the shallow fault generally has a slip rate deficit between 80 and 100% of the plate convergence rate, irrespective of its frictional properties. This finding rules out areas of low kinematic coupling at the trench considered by previous studies. If these areas of the shallow fault can slip seismically, the global tsunami hazard could be higher than currently recognized. Our method identifies critical locations where seafloor observations could yield information about frictional properties of these faults so as to better understand their slip behaviour. Shallow parts of megathrusts up-dip of locked patches generally have a high slip rate deficit, which could mean tsunami hazard has been underestimated, according to a stress-constrained inversion of geodetic data.

A Bayesian inference framework for fault slip distributions based on ensemble modelling of the uncertainty of underground structure: with a focus on uncertain fault dip

SUMMARYThe model prediction errors that originate from the uncertainty of underground structure are often a major contributor of the errors between the data and the model predictions in fault slip estimation using geodetic or seismic waveform data. However, most studies on slip inversions either neglect the model prediction errors or do not distinguish them from observation errors. Several methods that explicitly incorporated the model prediction errors in slip estimation, which has been proposed in the past decade, commonly assumed a Gaussian distribution for the stochastic property of the model prediction errors to simplify the formulation. Moreover, the information on both the slip distribution and the underground structure is expected to be successfully extracted from the data by incorporating the stochastic property of the model prediction errors. In this study, we propose a novel flexible Bayesian inference framework for estimating fault slips that can accurately incorporate non-Gaussian model prediction errors. This method considers the uncertainty of the underground structure, including fault geometry, based on the ensemble modelling of the uncertainty of Green’s functions. Furthermore, the framework allows the estimation of the posterior probability density function (PDF) of the parameters of the underground structure by calculating the likelihood of each sample in the ensemble. We performed numerical experiments for estimating the slip deficit rate (SDR) distribution on a 2-D thrust fault using synthetic data of surface displacement rates, which is the simplest problem setting that can essentially demonstrate the fundamental idea and validate the advantage of the proposed method. In the experiments, the dip angle of the fault plane was the parameter used to characterize the underground structure. The proposed method succeeded in estimating a posterior PDF of SDR that is consistent with the true one, despite the uncertain and inaccurate information of the dip angle. In addition, the method could estimate a posterior PDF of the dip angle that has a strong peak near the true angle. In contrast, the estimation results obtained using a conventional approach, which introduces regularization based on smoothing constraints and does not explicitly distinguish the prediction and observation errors, included a significant amount of bias, which was not noted in the results obtained using the proposed method. The estimation results obtained using different settings of the parameters suggested that inaccurate prior information of the underground structure with a small variance possibly results in significant bias in the estimated PDFs, particularly the posterior PDFs for SDR, those for the underground structure, and the posterior predicted PDF of the displacement rates. The distribution shapes of the model prediction errors for the representative model parameters in certain observation points are significantly asymmetric with large absolute values of the sample skewness, suggesting that they would not be well-modelled by Gaussian approximations.

Present GPS velocity field along 1999 Izmit rupture zone: evidence for continuing afterslip 20 yr after the earthquake

SUMMARYIn order to better assess earthquake hazards, it is vital to have a better understanding of the spatial and temporal characteristics of fault creep that occur on ruptured faults during the period following major earthquakes. Towards this end, we use new far-field GPS velocities from continuous stations (extending ∼50–70 km from the fault) and updated near-fault GPS survey observations, with high temporal and spatial density, to constrain active deformation along the Mw7.4, 1999 Izmit, Turkey Earthquake fault. We interpret and model deformation as resulting from post-seismic afterslip on the coseismic fault. In the broadest sense, our results demonstrate that logarithmically decaying post-seismic afterslip continues at a significant level 20 yr following 1999 Earthquake. Elastic models indicate substantially shallower apparent locking depths at present than prior to the 1999 Earthquake, consistent with continuing afterslip on the coseismic fault at depth. High-density, near-fault GPS observations indicate shallow creep on the upper 1–2 km of the coseismic fault, with variable rates, the highest and most clearly defined of which reach ∼12 mm yr−1 (10–15 mm yr−1, 95 per cent c.i.) near the epicentre between 2014–2016. This amounts to ∼half the long-term slip deficit rate.

Locating Fully Locked Asperities Along the South America Subduction Megathrust: A New Physical Interseismic Inversion Approach in a Bayesian Framework

AbstractThe largest earthquakes in subduction zones occur where significant interseismic slip deficit has accumulated on the plate interface. Slip deficit accumulates most quickly in mechanically locked regions, and these also cause the regions around them to accumulate slip deficit; therefore, large earthquakes are typically expected to rupture in and around locked areas. The locations and dimensions of these locked zones have been difficult to resolve using standard techniques and available data sets. We develop a new statistical interseismic inversion approach that incorporates the physical interactions between nearby fault areas to directly determine the distribution of locking on the subduction plate interface (simultaneously with rigid forearc motions) from interseismic surface velocities. Because we include physical prior information in the inversion procedure, this approach reduces uncertainties in the rate of slip deficit accumulation, even in locations (such as near the trench) where kinematic inversions of onshore data have relatively low resolution. Applying the inversion to the South America subduction zone, we find that the pattern of locking and corresponding slip deficit rates correlate well with recent and historical large earthquake ruptures. Locked patch dimensions are <40 km and account for no more than 30% of the area of the plate interface. The small size of the imaged locked zones is a natural outcome of our physical assumptions and implies that mechanical locking is caused by correspondingly small geological features. Despite their small dimensions, locked zones generate substantial slip deficit on the surrounding plate interface, consistent with the slip patterns of large megathrust earthquakes.

Centroid moment tensor inversions of offshore earthquakes using a three-dimensional velocity structure model: slip distributions on the plate boundary along the Nankai Trough

SUMMARYDue to complex 3-D heterogeneous structures, conventional 1-D analysis techniques using onshore seismograms can yield incorrect estimation of earthquake source parameters, especially dip angles and centroid depths of offshore earthquakes. Combining long-term onshore seismic observations and numerical simulations of seismic wave propagation in a 3-D model, we conducted centroid moment tensor (CMT) inversions of earthquakes along the Nankai Trough between April 2004 and August 2019 to evaluate decade-scale seismicity. Green's functions for CMT inversions of earthquakes with moment magnitudes of 4.3–6.5 were evaluated using finite-difference method simulations of seismic wave propagation in the regional 3-D velocity structure model. Significant differences of focal mechanisms and centroid depths between previous 1-D and our 3-D catalogues were found in the solutions of offshore earthquakes. By introducing the 3-D structures of the low-velocity accretionary prism and the Philippine Sea Plate, dip angles and centroid depths for offshore earthquakes were well-constrained. Teleseismic CMT also provides robust solutions, but our regional 3-D CMT could provide better constraints of dip angles. Our 3-D CMT catalogue and published slow earthquake catalogues depicted spatial distributions of slip behaviours on the plate boundary along the Nankai Trough. The regular and slow interplate earthquakes were separately distributed, with these distributions reflecting the heterogeneous distribution of effective strengths along the Nankai Trough plate boundary. By comparing the spatial distribution of seismic slip on the plate boundary with the slip-deficit rate distribution, regions with strong coupling were clearly identified.

Kinematics of faults in Bengal Basin: Constraints from GPS measurements

The crustal deformation of Bengal Basin is constrained by motion on faults within the basin and those along the basin boundaries on all sides except the southern margin. Eocene Hinge Zone (EHZ), the most prominent structure within Bengal Basin, running through Kolkata-Ranaghat-Mymensingh, shows present day reactivation by hosting 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.3 to 7.2 on or near its vicinity since 1906. Analysis of GPS derived velocities of stations around the hinge belt reveals a change in crustal kinematics across the belt. The predicted fault model that best fits the observed GPS station velocities on the surface shows that EHZ is a low angle east dipping fault which is locked to a depth of 10 km below the alluvium cover with a maximum slip rate deficit of 1.6 ± 0.7 mm/yr in its northern part at a shallow depth from surface while the deficit in the southern part of EHZ is 1.0 ± 0.6 mm/yr. The Garh-Moyna Khandaghosh fault running almost parallel to the western basin-shield margin does not show significant slip rate deficit. The basin-bounding faults are more active than the faults within and therefore they are greater sources of seismic hazard in the basin. The model results reveal that the Sylhet trough region in the northeastern corner is most vulnerable to future earthquakes as it undergoes deformation due to a maximum slip rate deficit of 9.5 ± 2.4 mm/yr on the shallowly dipping locked megathrust along the eastern margin of the basin plus that of 7.4 ± 2.6 mm/yr on the over thrusting Dapsi thrust and Dauki fault in the north.

Introduction of covariance components in slip inversion of geodetic data following a non-uniform spatial distribution and application to slip deficit rate estimation in the Nankai Trough subduction zone

SUMMARYInappropriate mathematical treatment of prediction errors associated with inaccurate forward modelling in an inversion scheme may result in significant unnatural short-wavelength components in the estimated slip distribution, which is a typical consequence of overfitting data. When geodetic data in observation stations following a non-uniform spatial distribution are used in a geodetic slip inversion, the spatial non-uniformity of the observation can possibly influence the distribution pattern of the short-wavelength components significantly, which may be confused with slip patterns that are geophysically meaningful. Such situations often occur when land and seafloor geodetic data are used in combination in slip inversions. To avoid overfitting, this study proposes a method that incorporates covariance components in the covariance matrix of the misfit vector, which originate from prediction errors. Because the proposed method retains the linearity of the inversion problem, widely known approaches that introduce prior constraints to a linear inversion problem are easily combined with the proposed method. This study demonstrates a combination of the newly introduced covariance components with a prior constraint on the smoothness of slip distribution, constructing a Bayesian model with unknown hyperparameters, which are objectively determined by minimizing Akaike’s Bayesian information criterion. In the synthetic tests, the proposed method estimated slip deficit rate (SDR) distributions that are closer to the true one, avoiding overfitting the geodetic data with spatial non-uniformity. By contrast, a conventional approach, which does not introduce covariance components, estimates unnaturally rough SDR distributions using the same synthetic data. The proposed method was applied to the estimation of SDR in the Nankai Trough subduction zone, using geodetic data of displacement rates provided by land GNSS stations and seafloor GNSS-Acoustic stations. This method estimates a reasonably smooth distribution of SDR, avoiding overfitting. The spatial distribution of residuals of the displacement rates suggests that the proposed method avoids overfitting some portions of the observed displacement rates that the forward model set for the analyses could not fundamentally explain.

Estimation of frictional properties and slip evolution on a long-term slow slip event fault with the ensemble Kalman filter: numerical experiments

SummaryA variety of slow slip events at subduction zones have been observed. They can be stress meters for monitoring the stress state of megathrust faults during their earthquake cycles. In this study, we focus on long-term slow slip events (LSSEs) recurring at downdip portions of megathrust faults among such slow earthquakes. Data analyses and simulation studies of LSSEs have so far been executed independently. In atmosphere and ocean sciences, data assimilations that optimally combine data analyses and simulation studies have been developed. We develop a method for estimating frictional properties and monitoring slip evolution on an LSSE fault, with a sequential data assimilation method, the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). We executed numerical twin experiments for the Bungo Channel LSSE fault in southwest Japan to validate the method. First, based on a rate- and state-dependent friction law, we set a rate-weakening circular LSSE patch on the rate-strengthening flat plate interface, whose critical nucleation size is larger than that of the patch, and reproduced the observed Bungo Channel LSSEs with recurrence times of approximately 7 yr and slip durations of 1 yr. Then, we synthesized the observed data of surface displacement rates at uniformly distributed stations with noises from the simulated slip model. Using our EnKF method, we successfully estimated the frictional parameters and the slip rate evolution after a few cycles. Secondly, we considered the effect of the megathrust fault existing in the updip portion of the LSSE fault, as revealed by kinematic inversion studies of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data and added this locked region with a slip deficit rate in the model. We estimated the slip rate on the locked region only kinematically, but the quasi-dynamic equation of motion in each LSSE fault cell includes the stress term arising from the locked region. Based on this model, we synthesized the observed surface displacement rate data for the actual distribution of GNSS stations and executed EnKF estimations including the slip rate on the locked region. The slip rate on the locked region could be quickly retrieved. Even for the actual distribution of GNSS stations, we could successfully estimate frictional parameters and slip evolution on the LSSE fault. Thus, our twin numerical experiments showed the validity of our EnKF method, although we need further studies for actual GNSS data analyses.

Gradient field of undersea sound speed structure extracted from the GNSS-A oceanography: GNSS-A as a sensor for detecting sound speed gradient

The Global Navigation Satellite System-Acoustic ranging combination technique (GNSS-A) is a key observation method for detecting geodetic events such as co- and postseismic effects following a megathrust earthquake and the distributions of slip-deficit rate along the subduction zone. For capturing detailed slip and slip-deficit event information, Yokota et al. (Mar Geophys Res, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11001-018-9362-7 ) improved the accuracy of GNSS-A seafloor positioning using a method for extracting the gradient field of an undersea sound speed structure (SSS). In this paper, we examined how the extracted gradient parameters reflect a real ocean field. A comparison with the JCOPE2, a data assimilated ocean circulation model, shows that the extracted gradient parameters reflect the structure generated by a strong ocean current and can also be used for determination of the location and horizontal structure of the Kuroshio flow path. The results are also consistent with direct SSS observations. GNSS-A can thus serve as a sensor for detecting undersea sound speed gradient fields rather than surface condition.

Interplate Coupling Distribution Along the Nankai Trough in Southwest Japan Estimated From the Block Motion Model Based on Onshore GNSS and Seafloor GNSS/A Observations

AbstractAlong the Nankai Trough of southwest Japan, large‐magnitude interplate earthquakes (M > 8) have occurred repeatedly, with recurrence intervals of approximately 100 years. It is essential to estimate more precisely the spatial distribution of interplate coupling; that is, along‐strike and along‐dip heterogeneity of the coupling ratio defined as the slip deficit rate divided by the plate convergence rate, for understanding the mechanisms and/or assessing the potential of future mega interplate earthquakes in this region. Recently, the seafloor Global Navigation Satellite System‐Acoustic (GNSS/A) combination technique observation network has been extended, and we can now obtain crustal displacement fields for both onshore and offshore regions. In this study, we estimate interplate coupling distribution along the Nankai Trough using both seafloor GNSS/A and onshore GNSS data with the block motion model, minimizing the spatial variations of modeling uncertainties of coupling estimates. Seafloor GNSS/A data depict very strong coupling near the trough axis off of Tokai, as well as trough‐parallel heterogeneity in interplate coupling at the shallow plate interface. Using the block motion model confirmed that observed crustal deformation above the deep plate interface in SW Japan is dominated by rigid block motion rather than elastic response to slip deficit on the deep plate interface of the subducting Philippine Sea plate. The minimization of spatial variations for the modeling uncertainties of coupling estimates helps us to estimate the coupling distribution with nearly homogeneous uncertainties between offshore and onshore regions, which is useful for evaluation of interplate earthquakes and/or tsunamis hazards.