Concrete pavement buckling is a significant distress that disrupts traffic flow and results in costly repairs, issues that are increasingly exacerbated by global warming. Addressing these issues, this study develops a systematic framework for assessing jointed plain concrete pavement (JPCP) by integrating temperature and moisture gradients, pavement structures, and material properties into mechanical-based models for predicting buckling potential. Specifically, a two-stage analysis is developed to analyze buckling development based on the slab deformation and the slab-base interface, including joint closure assessment and upheaval buckling prediction. Through the established model, parametric studies are conducted to quantitatively identify key factors influencing buckling. Moreover, the developed models are applied to pavement sections in various climate regions and validated through comparative analysis with field data from the Long-Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) database to confirm model accuracy. Additionally, a case study using pavement buckling data from Wisconsin between 2014 and 2020 demonstrates the model's practical application. As the results, it is found that temperature increase, the percentage of incompressible materials, and the coefficient of thermal expansion are critical for joint opening changes, while the coefficient of thermal expansion, elastic modulus, and slab thickness are crucial to post-buckling performance. Regression equations are provided to estimate safe temperature increases as a recommended buckling temperature limit. Furthermore, the predicted joint opening shows reasonable alignment with joint gauge measurement in the field recordings from the LTPP database. Finally, the predicted buckling events are reasonably compared with field recordings for a Wisconsin pavement section from 2014 to 2020. In summary, by considering pavement structural parameters, material properties, and weather conditions, this comprehensive model provides a reasonable tool for predicting and mitigating JPCP buckling in different climate conditions.