Size Of Maximum Research Articles

Analisis Pemberian Air Irigasi pada Daerah Layanan Petak Tersier dengan Luas Maksimal 50 Ha

Irrigation network is one of the determining factors that are important in regulating the supply of water to agricultural land. If the network cannot meet the needs of irrigation water on agricultural lands, will cause a decrease in problem pruductifity on agricultural land. The purpose of this research is to know the water discharge and assess the effectiveness of the grant of the irrigation water tertiary swath size of maximum 50 ha on rice plant growth phase. The irrigation network that can not meet the needs of irrigation area water means the granting of water in irrigation service areas is not appropriate. The methods used in this research is a survey method. discharge measurement carried out at specified tertiary irrigation channels at random in the field. Results of the study showed measurable discharge on tertiary buildings by using door type Crump of de Gruyter is larger than the discharge should be available, the effectiveness of the grant of the irrigation water which is pretty good going on in the area with extensive irrigation services 30 – 40 ha, with a value of efficiency reached 68%. Keywords: Irrigation network, Kota Gajah, Performance of irrigation, Tertiary level irrigation

Empfehlungen der AG Klinische Geweberegeneration zur Behandlung von Knorpelschäden am Kniegelenk.

The Working Group of the German Orthopedic and Trauma Society (DGOU) on Tissue Regeneration has published recommendations on the indication of different surgical approaches for treatment of full-thickness cartilage defects in the knee joint in 2004, 2013 and 2016. Based upon new scientific knowledge and new developments, this recommendation is an update based upon the best clinical evidence available. In addition to prospective randomised controlled clinical trials, this also includes studies with a lower level of evidence. In the absence of evidence, the decision is based on a consensus process within the members of the working group.The principle of making decision dependent on defect size has not been changed in the new recommendation either. The indication for arthroscopic microfracturing has been reduced up to a defect size of 2cm2 maximum, while autologous chondrocyte implantation is the method of choice for larger cartilage defects. Additionally, matrix-augmented bone marrow stimulation (mBMS) has been included in the recommendation for defects ranging from 1 to 4.5cm2. For the treatment of smaller osteochondral defects, in addition to osteochondral transplantation (OCT), mBMS is also recommended. For larger defects, matrix-augmented autologous chondrocyte implantation (mACI/mACT) in combination with augmentation of the subchondral bone is recommended.

AUTOMATED AISI 317L SS THIN SECTION IMAGE POROSITY RECOGNITION AND SEMI-AUTOMATED PRIORITIZATION FOR PREDICTING THE YIELDING POSITION BY MEANS OF IMAGE PROCESSING

Porosity is a common phenomenon in fabricated parts, which cause stress concentration and leads to yielding, brittle fraction and fatigue of structures which makes porosity recognition and analyzing very important to increase efficiency and decrease the defects of manufactured parts. Many researches have been done in order to detecting and recognizing pores of material by different numerical and experimental methods. In this paper, an algorithm is developed in order to detect the porosity of thin section images automatically and prioritize them for a semi-automatically prediction of yielding position. The algorithm results is the following parameters in a porous material: number of pores, position and size of pores, maximum and minimum distances of pores both from each other and from boundaries. The algorithm shows an accuracy of 83% in the prediction of the results for simulated finite element method (FEM) tensile tests, which makes the algorithm creditable to be used as a non-destructive testing method.

Estimating of the Size of the Maximum Non-Metallic Inclusions in Martensitic Steels and their Influence on Fatigue Properties

Fatigue cracks can start from non-metallic inclusions in the subsurface zone at low stress amplitude level and high number of cycles. This phenomenon was observed mainly at high strength steels and parts with hardened surface zone. Fatigue strength of steel can be then estimated on the basis of hardness and maximum size of defect/inclusions measurements. Many inclusions rating methods exist, some of which have been adopted as the standards. However, “standard” methods for characterization of inclusion content are not convenient for assessment of their influence on fatigue strength of materials. This contribution deals with assessment of maximum sizes of inclusions in three types of martensitic steels used for production of rotating blades of steam turbines (Böhler T552, Böhler T671, and MLX 17) using extreme value statistics methods. Murakami´s concept of √AREAmax parameter and procedure according to ASTM E2283-08 were applied. Results were compared one another and also with the result of standard methods, too. Founded parameters were used for calculation of expected limit of the fatigue strength and compared with results of fatigue test of these steels.

TelMED: Dynamic User Clustering Resource Allocation Technique for MooM Datasets Under Optimizing Telemedicine Network

Tele-Medical data communication via general purpose networking protocols and techniques are major set-back under low line channels and adequate resources such as bandwidth, frequency, power spectrum for transmission and impacts the Quality of Data (QoD) on transmission line. In this paper, a heterogeneous multi-input multi-out (MIMO) based dynamic user clustering technique is proposed and the protocol is termed as TelMED. The proposed technique introduces machine learning terminology on networking nodes for dynamic user grouping and classification resulting in the formation of clusters with reflective similarity indexing ratio. The dynamic clustered users of TelMED protocol are allocated with resources for the transmission of Multi-Objective Optimized Medical datasets resulting in creation of virtual telemedicine networking environment with a given typical network space. The technique is designed on clustered user grouping size of maximum 32 users for reliable results over a fixed networking space and optimized resources for low line transmission channels of rural or remote networks. The resulting technique proves an efficiency of 92.3% over dynamic MIMO user grouping.

Development, Characterization and In vitro Evaluation of Donepezil solid Lipid Nanoparticles

Solid lipid nanoparticles (SLNs) loaded with donepezil were prepared by hot homogenization followed by probe ultrasonication technique. Donepezil SLNs were composed of lipids (1 to 5%w/v) such as trimyristin, tristearin, glycerol monostearate and compritol which were stabilized by soya lecithin (0.5 to 2.5%w/v) and poloxamer 188 (0.5 to 2.5%w/v). Developed donepezil SLNs were characterized for size, zeta potential, entrapment efficiency and content uniformity. Selected method of preparation was able to produce nanoparticles of size range 102.5 to 179.3 nm possessing zeta potential -23.5 to -34.9 mV with entrapment efficiency 86.65 to 89.64%. FTIR and DSC studies showed that there was no interaction between donepezil and selected lipids. Sterilization by autoclave increased size of SLNs from 1.5 to 1.9 times, however, there was no decrease in the zeta potential of the formulations. Short term stability studies showed that size of SLNs maximum increased by 38 nm whereas their entrapment efficiency was lowered by 1.3% only. In vitro release studies revealed that 61.58 to 74.82% of donepezil released from developed SLNs after 24 hours and found that drug release followed non-Fickian transport (0.556 to 0.658).

Effectiveness of a Mobile Image Based Teledentistry Tool to Screen Oral Potentially Malignant Lesions Among a Rural Population in Tamil Nadu, India

Background: Considering the vast landscape, and the huge in-country disparity among the distribution of dental manpower, the role played by nonprofessionals is pivoted in the delivery of dental care, especially among the rural Indian population. Traditionally dental professionals have been involved in the screening of oral cancers and oral potentially malignant lesions (OPML) which precede most oral cancer lesions. The recent advent of videographic enabled mobile Internet technology provides an opportunity to be used as tele-dentistry based screening tool involving nonprofessional health providers for screening of OPML. Aim: This study was aimed to determine the effectiveness of a mobile based oral cancer screening program among a rural population in Tamil Nadu, India using nonprofessional health providers. Methods: The study was conducted among 300 Dravidian adults (35 to 44 years) who were part of a rural oral health screening program. During the first phase, a trained male health worker (MHW) graphically recorded the oral cavity of those subjects who had any alteration in the color or surface characteristic of the oral mucosa and/or restriction in mouth opening. Recordings were done in a systematic manner using a Moto G smart phone with 8 megapixel camera and flashlight. Images with file size of maximum 20 MB were saved in Jpeg format and transferred to a hard disk. After the first phase, a calibrated dentist (SP) examined the subjects under standard lighting using a type 3 examination. A punch biopsy was taken and histologic examination was done for confirmation of the diagnosis. Results: Among the 300 subjects examined, 23 subjects were identified as having mucosal alterations by MHW. When cross assessed by the dentist, 19 out of the 23 were clinically diagnosed as having OPML, which were histologically confirmed. Leukoplakia was the most common lesion (12/19) followed by erythroplakia and oral submucous fibrosis. Conclusion: The results of the current study throws light on the effectiveness of a mobile image based screening tool, which could be used for early assessment of OPML by nonmedical personnel, especially for those risk populations who lack access to primary dental care.

Experimental evidence of velocity profile inversion in developing laminar flow using magnetic resonance velocimetry

A discrepancy exists between the predictions of analytical solutions of approximate Navier–Stokes equations and numerical finite-difference solutions of the full Navier–Stokes equations regarding the development of laminar flow at the entrance to cylindrical pipes for Newtonian fluids. Starting from a uniform velocity profile at the entrance to the pipe, analytical solutions of approximate Navier–Stokes equations predict the velocity profile to have a maximum at the centre of the pipe at all times. In contrast, numerical finite-difference solutions of the full Navier–Stokes equations have suggested that the location of the velocity maximum moves from the wall towards the centre of the pipe at a short distance from the entrance, after which it remains at the centre of the pipe. This study presents the first experimental evidence of the moving velocity maximum from the wall towards the centre of the pipe. The initial uniform velocity profile was achieved by flowing the fluid through a monolith composed of narrow parallel channels and the flow development was investigated using magnetic resonance velocimetry. The experimentally observed variation of the position and size of the velocity maximum with the Reynolds number and the distance from the entrance to the pipe is shown to be in good agreement with the predictions of numerical finite-difference solutions of the full Navier–Stokes equations.

Induced 2-Degenerate Subgraphs of Triangle-Free Planar Graphs

A graph is $k$-degenerate if every subgraph has minimum degree at most $k$. We provide lower bounds on the size of a maximum induced 2-degenerate subgraph in a triangle-free planar graph. We denote the size of a maximum induced 2-degenerate subgraph of a graph $G$ by $\alpha_2(G)$. We prove that if $G$ is a connected triangle-free planar graph with $n$ vertices and $m$ edges, then $\alpha_2(G) \geq \frac{6n - m - 1}{5}$. By Euler's Formula, this implies $\alpha_2(G) \geq \frac{4}{5}n$. We also prove that if $G$ is a triangle-free planar graph on $n$ vertices with at most $n_3$ vertices of degree at most three, then $\alpha_2(G) \geq \frac{7}{8}n - 18 n_3$.

Manifestation of peripherial coding in the effect of increasing loudness and enhanced discrimination of the intensity of tone bursts before and after tone burst noise

To find the possible reasons for the midlevel elevation of the Weber fraction in intensity discrimination of a tone burst, a comparison was performed for the complementary distributions of spike activity of an ensemble of space nerves, such as the distribution of time instants when spikes occur, the distribution of interspike intervals, and the autocorrelation function. The distribution properties were detected in a poststimulus histogram, an interspike interval histogram, and an autocorrelation histogram—all obtained from the reaction of an ensemble of model space nerves in response to an auditory noise burst–useful tone burst complex. Two configurations were used: in the first, the peak amplitude of the tone burst was varied and the noise amplitude was fixed; in the other, the tone burst amplitude was fixed and the noise amplitude was varied. Noise could precede or follow the tone burst. The noise and tone burst durations, as well as the interval between them, was 4 kHz and corresponded to the characteristic frequencies of the model space nerves. The profiles of all the mentioned histograms had two maxima. The values and the positions of the maxima in the poststimulus histogram corresponded to the amplitudes and mutual time position of the noise and the tone burst. The maximum that occurred in response to the tone burst action could be a basis for the formation of the loudness of the latter (explicit loudness). However, the positions of the maxima in the other two histograms did not depend on the positions of tone bursts and noise in the combinations. The first maximum fell in short intervals and united intervals corresponding to the noise and tone burst durations. The second maximum fell in intervals corresponding to a tone burst delay with respect to noise, and its value was proportional to the noise amplitude or tone burst amplitude that was smaller in the complex. An increase in tone burst or noise amplitudes was caused by nonlinear variations in the two maxima and the ratio between them. The size of the first maximum in the of interspike interval distribution could be the basis for the formation of the loudness of the masked tone burst (implicit loudness), and the size of the second maximum, for the formation of intensity in the periodicity pitch of the complex. The auditory effect of the midlevel enhancement of tone burst loudness could be the result of variations in the implicit tone burst loudness caused by variations in tone-burst or noise intensity. The reason for the enhancement of the Weber fraction could be competitive interaction between such subjective qualities as explicit and implicit tone-burst loudness and the intensity of the periodicity pitch of the complex.

Weather radar data correlate to hail‐induced mortality in grassland birds

AbstractSmall‐bodied terrestrial animals such as songbirds (Order Passeriformes) are especially vulnerable to hail‐induced mortality; yet, hail events are challenging to predict, and they often occur in locations where populations are not being studied. Focusing on nesting grassland songbirds, we demonstrate a novel approach to estimate hail‐induced mortality. We quantify the relationship between the probability of nests destroyed by hail and measured Level‐III Next Generation Radar (NEXRAD) data, including atmospheric base reflectivity, maximum estimated size of hail and maximum estimated azimuthal wind shear. On 22 June 2014, a hailstorm in northern Colorado destroyed 102 out of 203 known nests within our research site. Lark bunting (Calamospiza melanocorys) nests comprised most of the sample (n = 186). Destroyed nests were more likely to be found in areas of higher storm intensity, and distributions of NEXRAD variables differed between failed and surviving nests. For 133 ground nests where nest‐site vegetation was measured, we examined the ameliorative influence of woody vegetation, nest cover and vegetation density by comparing results for 13 different logistic regression models incorporating the independent and additive effects of weather and vegetation variables. The most parsimonious model used only the interactive effect of hail size and wind shear to predict the probability of nest survival, and the data provided no support for any of the models without this predictor. We conclude that vegetation structure may not mitigate mortality from severe hailstorms and that weather radar products can be used remotely to estimate potential for hail mortality of nesting grassland birds. These insights will improve the efficacy of grassland bird population models under predicted climate change scenarios.

Investigation of Well-Balanced kV X-Ray Imaging Conditions between Skin Dose and Image Noise for Dynamic Tumor Tracking Irradiation

Purpose: The purposes of this study were to estimate accumulated kV X-ray imaging dose throughout dynamic tumor tracking (DTT) irradiation by Vero 4DRT system and to address an analytical skin dose formula for well-balanced kV X-ray imaging conditions between skin dose and image noise. Method: First, skin dose was measured using kV X-ray tube, chamber, and water-equivalent phantoms. Next, imaging dose for six patients in DTT treatment was computed using log files. Subsequently, scattered dose ratio was calculated by amount of ionization in front of flat panel detector (FPD) for fields with size of maximum and the chamber for 0 - 200 mm-thickness phantoms and tube voltage of 60, 80, 100, 120 kV, respectively. Furthermore, image noise was computed from FPD images. Results: The skin dose was greater by a factor of 1.4 - 1.6 than those in Synergy XVI system. The image noise in FPD, was expressed as N = 0.045×(1/QFPDen)0.479, where QFPDen denotes amount of ionization in front of FPD. Then, skin dose, D (N, t, v) was formulated as (0.045/N)(1/0.479)/QFPDen/mAs (t, v) ×D/mAs (v), where QFPDen/mAs (t, v) and D/mAs (v) denote amount of ionization in front of FPD and skin dose per mAs, respectively. Using the formulae, it has been demonstrated that skin dose with 120 kV has become lower than any other tube voltage in this study. Conclusion: Using skin doses for the phantom, the skin dose throughout DTT irradiation was estimated as 0.50 Gy. Furthermore, skin dose by kV X-ray imaging was described as a function of image noise, phantom thickness, and tube voltage, suggesting image noise may be reduced with higher X-ray tube voltage in this phantom study.

Heat transfer in a confined impinging jet with swirling velocity component

Heat transfer measurements based on an infrared experimental method (TOIRT) are compared with CFD simulations of a confined impinging jet with tangential velocity component. The tangential velocity component added to a pure impinging jet introduces into the flow field and heat transfer some similarities with real industrial processes like agitated vessels with axial-flow impellers. The tangential velocity component significantly influences the velocity field and heat transfer intensity in the stagnant region when compared to the classic impinging jet characteristics. Several turbulence models were used in numerical simulations of an agitated vessel with axial-flow impeller in a draft tube. Heat transfer coefficients at the vessel bottom were evaluated using the TOIRT method and compared with numerical results. The lateral heat conduction in the impinged wall was analysed with the conclusion that it has relatively small impact on the measured heat transfer coefficients. Quite good agreement of experimental data and simulation results was achieved concerning the size and position of the heat transfer maximum at the vessel bottom.

Proton acceleration by irradiation of isolated spheres with an intense laser pulse.

We report on experiments irradiating isolated plastic spheres with a peak laser intensity of 2-3×10^{20}Wcm^{-2}. With a laser focal spot size of 10μm full width half maximum (FWHM) the sphere diameter was varied between 520 nm and 19.3μm. Maximum proton energies of ∼25 MeV are achieved for targets matching the focal spot size of 10μm in diameter or being slightly smaller. For smaller spheres the kinetic energy distributions of protons become nonmonotonic, indicating a change in the accelerating mechanism from ambipolar expansion towards a regime dominated by effects caused by Coulomb repulsion of ions. The energy conversion efficiency from laser energy to proton kinetic energy is optimized when the target diameter matches the laser focal spot size with efficiencies reaching the percent level. The change of proton acceleration efficiency with target size can be attributed to the reduced cross-sectional overlap of subfocus targets with the laser. Reported experimental observations are in line with 3D3V particle in cell simulations. They make use of well-defined targets and point out pathways for future applications and experiments.

Abstract B151: Monitoring tumor microenvironment (Hb saturation and oxygenation) in response to plasmonics-assisted photothermal cancer therapy.

Abstract Introduction: Advanced biophotonic technology provides a novel strategy to not only achieve target-specific cancer therapy, but also monitor physiological response during treatment. To date, photoactivatable plasmonic nanoparticles (e.g. nanostars; NS) have been applied for region-controlled photothermal, photodynamic, and photoimmuno therapy. Environmental sensitive nanoparticles (e.g. boron nanoparticles; BNP) also can be utilized for oxygen sensing through optical imaging and spectroscopy. However, very little is understood on the physiological impact of these nanoparticles following photon activation, especially on live animals. Methods: We employed syngeneic tumor animal models implanted in dorsal window chambers to study the local partial pressure of oxygen (pO2) and Hb oxygen saturation (HbSat) changes following plasmonics-assisted photothermal therapy (PTT). Near IR (NIR) responsive PEGylated plasmonic gold nanostars (PEGNS) or saline controls were injected intravenously to mice pre-implanted with Lewis Lung cancer cells in the dorsal window skin chambers. BNP were locally injected into the chamber for oxygen sensing. On each mouse (PEGNS vs. control), following 10 minutes of low-energy (0.5 W/cm2) or high-energy (1 W/cm2) irradiation of 785 nm laser. Series of images were collected via hyperspectral microscopy to assess pO2 and HbSat for 4 days. Results: Chemical characterization of PEGNS showed a hydrodynamic size of 50-nm and an extinction maximum around 800 nm. BNP has a hydrodynamic size of 90-nm and extinction maximum around 420 nm. Pre-PTT microscopy imaging showed the presence of tumor cells and neovascularization 8 days following cancer cells implantation. PEGNS were seen in perivascular space and scattered throughout the skinfold 1 day following injection. pO2 and HbSat were monitored successfully using optical methods. Mice receiving PTT with PEGNS showed apparent tumor ablation and hemorrhage on high-energy PTT but only small hemorrhage on low-energy PTT. High-energy PTT damaged the blood vessels causing subsequent tissue scarring formation and low pO2/HbSat profiles. Low-energy PTT induced small vascular damage; focal elevation of pO2/HbSat surrounding the tumor vessels was found on day 4. Mice receiving PTT without PEGNS displayed no hemorrhage but only mild skin redness after high-energy irradiation. Irradiation may lead to photon energy-dependent inflammation without damaging blood vessels. Tumor periphery vascular growth with elevated pO2 and HbSat were apparent. Conclusion: In this pilot study, we for the first time demonstrated the potential of using NS and BNP combined with optical imaging/spectroscopy technologies to investigate the tumor microenvironment in response to two different energy levels of PTT or irradiation alone. Successful PTT may not only ablate the tumor tissue/vessels but also reduce the local pO2 and HbSat. In contrast, irradiation alone may induce local inflammation hence elevated pO2 and HbSat. Citation Information: Mol Cancer Ther 2013;12(11 Suppl):B151. Citation Format: Hsiangkuo Yuan, Christina L. Hofmann, Jelena Samonina-Kosicka, Hansford Hendargo, Gabi Hanna, Tuan Vo-Dinh, Cassandra L. Fraser, Mark W. Dewhirst, Gregory M. Palmer. Monitoring tumor microenvironment (Hb saturation and oxygenation) in response to plasmonics-assisted photothermal cancer therapy. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the AACR-NCI-EORTC International Conference: Molecular Targets and Cancer Therapeutics; 2013 Oct 19-23; Boston, MA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Mol Cancer Ther 2013;12(11 Suppl):Abstract nr B151.

Calcium Could Be Involved in Auxin-Regulated Maintenance of the Quiescent Center in the Arabidopsis Root

Ca2+ transduces hormone and environmental signals to the Ca2+ sensors and relays them to the downstream target effectors in cells. During the post-embryonic developmental process, auxin plays a critical role in maintaining the mitotically inactive status of the quiescent center (QC) and the root growth and development that follows. In this report, we demonstrate that Ca2+ plays an important role in the maintenance of the QC, probably by regulating PIN1-mediated auxin transport. Perturbation of the intracellular Ca2+ levels with chemicals that modify the Ca2+ level decreases the endogenous auxin level and the size of the auxin maximum in the root tip and, at the same time, activates QC cell division and expansion. This decreased level of auxin is almost completely restored to the control level by the treatment of exogenous auxin. Interestingly, treatment with Ca2+ level modifying chemicals significantly decreased the PIN1 expression in the root vasculature. Taken together, we suggest that balancing Ca2+ homeostasis is one of contributing factors in establishing the proper auxin maximum in the root tip and maintaining the QC identity.

Geomagnetic activity indicates large amplitude for sunspot cycle 24

The level of geomagnetic activity near the time of solar activity minimum has been shown to be a reliable indicator for the amplitude of the following solar activity maximum. The geomagnetic activity index aa can be split into two components: one associated with solar flares, prominence eruptions, and coronal mass ejections which follows the solar activity cycle and a second component associated with recurrent high speed solar wind streams which is out of phase with the solar activity cycle. This second component often peaks before solar activity minimum and has been one of the most reliable indicators for the amplitude of the following maximum. The size of the recent maximum in this second component indicates that solar activity cycle 24 will be much higher than average – similar in size to cycles 21 and 22 with a peak smoothed sunspot number of 160 ± 25.

The Shape of Sunspot Cycles Described by Monthly Sunspot Areas

In this paper, we used the same four-parameter function as Hathaway, Wilson, and Reichmann (1994) proposed and studied the temporal behavior of sunspot cycles 12-22. We used the monthly averages Of Sunspot areas and their 13-point smoothed data. Our results show the following. (1) The four-parameter function may reduce to a function of only two parameters. (2) As a cycle progresses, the two-parameter function can be accurately determined after 4-4.5 years from the start of the cycle. A good prediction can be made for the timing and size of the Sunspot maximum and for the behavior of the remaining 5-10 years of the cycle. (3) The solar activity in the remaining and forthcoming years of cycle 23 is predicted. (4) The smoothed monthly Sunspot areas are more suitable to be employed for prediction at the maximum and the descending period of a cycle, whereas at the early period of a cycle the (un-smoothed) monthly data are more suitable.

A novel dual focus objective lens for DVD/CD pick-up head

A new dual focus objective lens of combining aspherical surfaces of DVD and CD for DVD/CD pick-up head was designed. Numerical analysis based on the diffraction model were studied to trade off the spot size, side lobe, and energy ratio of DVD and CD. The hybrid aspherical surfaces of DVD and CD are optimized for low aberration. The spot size of full wave half maximum (FWHM) are 0.553 and 0.88 /spl mu/m for DVD and CD, respectively, measured from thus constructed double rings lens.

On the Prediction of Maximum Amplitude for Solar Cycles Using Geomagnetic Precursors

Precursor methods for the prediction of maximum amplitude of the solar cycle have previously been found to provide the most reliable indication for the size of the following cycle, years in advance. In this paper, we evaluate several of the previously used geomagnetic precursor methods and some new ones, both as single-variate and multivariate regressions. The newer precursor methods are based on the size of the geomagnetic index maximum, which, since cycle 12, has always occurred during the declining portion of the solar cycle, usually several years before subsequent cycle minimum. These various precursor techniques are then applied to cycle 23, yielding the prediction that its maximum amplitude should be about 168 ± 15 (r.m.s.), peaking sometime in 1999–2000.