Size Of Government Spending Multipliers Research Articles

Local projections in unstable environments

This paper develops a local projection estimator for estimating impulse responses in the presence of time variation. Importantly, we allow local instabilities in both slope coefficients and variances. Monte Carlo simulations illustrate that the method performs well in practice. Using our proposed estimator, we shed new light on the effects of fiscal policy shocks and the size of government spending multipliers. Our analysis uncovers the existence of instabilities that were unaccounted for in previous studies, and links time variation in the multipliers to the size of government debt.

Effect of Monetary Policy on Government Spending Multiplier

Abstract This paper empirically examines the effect of monetary policy on the government spending multiplier when the nominal interest rate is not bound to zero. We estimate a time-varying coefficient vector autoregressive (TVC-VAR) model using 2000:Q1 to 2019:Q3 quarterly data of Korea, whose policy rate is distant from zero. We find a substantial degree of time variation in the medium-run government spending multipliers, which increase over time and become statistically different from zero throughout the 2010s. Yet the reverse pattern is observed in the policy rate responses to government spending shocks, decreasing gradually until 2008–09 and then stagnating for the subsequent period. Decompositions of the policy rate responses reveal that inflation is an important ingredient in determining the responses of the nominal interest rate to government spending shocks, and thus has a critical impact on the size of government spending multipliers. In particular, our finding underscores a substantial role of the monetary policy stance against inflation in shaping government spending multipliers.

Is the Public Investment Multiplier Higher in Developing Countries? An Empirical Exploration

Over the last decade, empirical studies analyzing macroeconomic conditions that may affect the size of government spending multipliers have flourished. Yet, in spite of their obvious public policy importance, little is known about public investment multipliers. In particular, the clear theoretical implication that public investment multipliers should be higher (lower) the lower (higher) is the initial stock of public capital has not, to the best of our knowledge, been tested. This paper tackles this empirical challenge and finds robust evidence in favor of the above hypothesis: countries with a low initial stock of public capital (as a proportion of GDP) have significantly higher public investment multipliers than countries with a high initial stock of public capital. This key finding seems robust to the sample (European countries, U.S. states, and Argentine provinces) and to the identification method (Blanchard-Perotti, forecast errors, and instrumental variables). Our results thus suggest that public investment in developing countries would carry high returns.

HOW CAN THE GOVERNMENT SPENDING MULTIPLIER BE SMALL AT THE ZERO LOWER BOUND?

Some recent empirical evidence questions the typically large size of government spending multipliers when the nominal interest rate is stuck at zero, finding output multipliers of around 1 or even lower, with an upper bound of around 1.5 in some circumstances. In this paper, we use a recent estimate of the degree of substitutability between private and government consumption in an otherwise standard New Keynesian model to show that this channel significantly reduces the size of government spending multipliers obtained when the nominal interest rate is at zero. All else being equal, the relationship of substitutability makes a government spending shock crowd out private consumption while being less inflationary, thus, limiting the typically expansionary effect of the fall in the real interest rate. Subject to the nominal interest rate being constrained at zero, the model generates output multipliers ranging from 0.8 to 1.6.

How Can the Government Spending Multiplier Be Small at the Zero Lower Bound?

Some recent empirical evidence questions the typically large size of government spending multipliers when the nominal interest rate is stuck at zero, finding output multipliers of around 1 or even lower, with an upper bound of around 1.5 in some circumstances. In this paper, we use a recent estimate of the degree of substitutability between private and government consumption in an otherwise standard New Keynesian model to show that this channel significantly reduces the size of government spending multipliers obtained when the nominal interest rate is at zero. All else being equal, the relationship of substitutability makes a government spending shock crowd out private consumption while being less inflationary, thus limiting the typically expansionary effect of the fall in the real interest rate. Subject to the nominal interest rate being constrained at zero, the model generates output multipliers ranging from 0.8 to 1.6.

Household Debt and Fiscal Multipliers

We study the size of government spending multipliers in a general equilibrium model with search and matching frictions in which we allow for different levels of household indebtedness. The main results are: (a) the presence of impatient households and private debt helps to generate government spending multipliers greater than 1; (b) as financial conditions worsen, the size of the government spending multiplier falls; (c) conversely, employment, vacancies and unemployment multipliers are larger in a credit crunch; (d) the model explains the observed pattern of responses of labour market variables, housing prices and private debt to a fiscal shock reasonably well.

On the size of government spending multipliers in Europe

This article compares the size of government spending multipliers in Europe by applying a panel structural vector autoregression analysis on 11 eurozone and 8 non-eurozone countries using quarterly data from 1991Q1 to 2012Q4. We find that (i) spending multipliers are smaller in eurozone compared to non-eurozone countries, (ii) across the euro area the impact of government spending on GDP has been higher before than after the introduction of the euro, (iii) spending multipliers are larger in the eurozone periphery than in the core countries and (iv) since the beginning of the recent financial crisis, spending multipliers have become larger both for eurozone and for non-eurozone countries. We relate these results to an emerging theoretical literature linking the size of fiscal multipliers to the monetary policy stance. We also discuss the implications of our findings for the effectiveness of fiscal policy in Europe.

When is Austerity Ineffective ?

This paper offers a formal analysis of the relationship between changes in government primary balance and debt-to-GDP ratio. It establishes the conditions under which a fiscal consolidation increases, instead of decreasing, the stock of government liabilities relative to aggregate output.A crucial role is played by the relationship between the elasticities of average cost of debt and nominal output to primary balance. While the former depends on debt maturity and risk premia-dynamics, the latter relates to the well-known controversy on the size of government spending multipliers. The paper shows an application to the ongoing fiscal consolidation process in the Eurozone.

Withering Government Spending Multipliers

ABSTRACTThe empirical literature has documented a weakening of the consumption and output responses to an increase in government spending during the last 30 years. We show that a New Keynesian model in which real government spending is observed with measurement errors can account for the reduction in the size of government spending multipliers. The model implies—consistent with empirical evidence presented by Ilzetzki, Mendoza, and Vegh (2010)—that the evolution of monetary policy and greater globalization (increasing international trade and decreasing capital controls) are key factors in this development.

Cartel Stability, Mark-Up Cyclicality and Government Spending Multipliers

Mark-up cyclical behaviour is relevant in determining the size of government spending multiplier on output. While theoretical literature priviliged the counteryclical hypothesis, empirical evidence is far from being conclusive. Based on seminal Rotemberg and Saloner (1986) contribution, we build a theoretical framework based on Bertrand duopoly, stochastic demand and product differentiation, where the analysis of cartel stability under partial collusion points towards procyclical pricing. According to the intensity of marginal cost cyclicality, this can produce a procyclical mark up or - at least - render it less countercyclical than expected, with relevant effects on the transmission mechanism of government spending stimuli.