On the size of government spending multipliers in Europe

Abstract

This article compares the size of government spending multipliers in Europe by applying a panel structural vector autoregression analysis on 11 eurozone and 8 non-eurozone countries using quarterly data from 1991Q1 to 2012Q4. We find that (i) spending multipliers are smaller in eurozone compared to non-eurozone countries, (ii) across the euro area the impact of government spending on GDP has been higher before than after the introduction of the euro, (iii) spending multipliers are larger in the eurozone periphery than in the core countries and (iv) since the beginning of the recent financial crisis, spending multipliers have become larger both for eurozone and for non-eurozone countries. We relate these results to an emerging theoretical literature linking the size of fiscal multipliers to the monetary policy stance. We also discuss the implications of our findings for the effectiveness of fiscal policy in Europe.