Crisis Situations Research Articles

Multilevel Analysis Applied in High-Impact Environments: Causes and Effects of Firm and Political Activities During the Pandemic in the Restaurant Sector

The COVID-19 pandemic has meant a serious risk to the economic viability of companies and the sustainability of employment in the restaurant sector, a high-impact activity for the economy and employment in Mexico and Spain. This paper analyzes the causes of the prolonged and intense damage to companies and employees via multilevel analysis techniques and a qualitative, inductive methodology drawing on multiple sources. Research propositions posit that the sectoral structure, management practices, and institutional actions during and after the pandemic are predictors of recovery or continued losses. The balanced result of these three levels of analysis, in a severe crisis situation, such as the global pandemic, reveals that the combination of low institutional protection at the macro level, a hostile industry structure at the meso level, and a focus solely on economic sustainability as the primary business objective resulted in widespread resignation and put survival at risk, particularly for smaller companies and entrepreneurs. Analysis of the firms’ and stakeholders’ actions also shed light on the inter-relations, such as the negative effect of macro general policies on a fragmented, asymmetric meso level. Inter-relations among customers and firms’ behavior gave insights that could increase resilience before general critical events. Finally, the balanced results recommend a simultaneous effort from firms and policy makers to make possible a profound change while addressing the sector’s shortcomings. Firms’ effort in managing key assets, such as human capital, to acquire the capacity for the flexibility, adaptability, and innovation essential for change and renewal, must be endorsed by institutional support and customer recognition of the contributions of this singular service and cultural industry.

Resonance+: Operationalizing Protective Action Decision Model for Finding Information Useful for Public Information Officers

Microblogging platforms have been increasingly used by the public in crisis situations, enabling more participatory crisis communication between the official response channels and the affected community. However, the sheer volume of crisis-related messages on social media can make it challenging for officials to find pertinent information and understand the public’s perception of evolving risks. To address this issue, crisis informatics researchers have proposed a variety of technological solutions, but there has been limited examination of the cognitive and perceptual processes and subsequent responses of the affected population. Yet, this information is critical for the crisis response officials to gauge public’s understanding of the event, their perception of event-related risk, and perception of incident response and recovery efforts, in turn enabling the officials to craft crisis communication messaging more effectively. Taking cues from the Protective Action Decision Model, we conceptualize a metric —resonance+ — that prioritizes the cognitive and perceptual processes of the affected population, quantifying shifts in collective attention and information exposure for each tweet. Based on resonance+, we develop a principled, scalable pipeline that recommends content relating to people’s cognitive and perceptual processes. Our results suggest that resonance+ is generalizable across different types of natural hazards. We have also demonstrated its applicability for near-real time scenarios. According to the feedback from the target users, the local public information officers (PIOs) in emergency management, the messages recommended by our pipeline are useful in their tasks of understanding public perception and finding hopeful narratives, potentially leading to more effective crisis communications.

Unexpected effects of pandemic-related changes on mental health: Evidence from a nationwide survey in South Korea.

Substantial evidence indicates that the COVID-19 pandemic has adversely affected population mental health globally. However, most studies assumed a linear relationship where only negative pandemic-induced changes led to worse mental health outcomes, overlooking the complex relationship between COVID-19-related changes and mental health. This study examined how various types and magnitudes of pandemic-related changes relate to depression and suicidal thoughts in a large, nationwide adult population sample. We analyzed data from the 2021 Korean Community Health Survey, a cross-sectional survey of 229,213 adults. The study examined the association between mental health outcomes and three types of pandemic-related changes: daily life impact (scored 0-100), economic activities (employment and income changes), and health behaviors (physical activity, instant food consumption, alcohol consumption, and smoking). Complex sample multiple logistic regression analysis was used to assess these associations, adjusting for sociodemographic factors. The relationship between pandemic-related changes and mental health showed non-linear patterns. Compared to those reporting moderate changes, individuals reporting either no change (depression: aOR 1.253, 95% CI 1.135-1.384; suicidal thoughts: aOR 1.355, 95% CI 1.236-1.486) or complete disruption (depression: aOR 1.895, 95% CI 1.667-2.155; suicidal thoughts: aOR 1.788, 95% CI 1.558-2.052) in daily life showed higher risks of poor mental health. Unexpectedly, positive changes such as improved working conditions (suicidal thoughts: aOR 1.419, 95% CI 1.200-1.677) and increased income (depression: aOR 1.304, 95% CI 1.139-1.493; suicidal thoughts: aOR 1.244, 95% CI 1.079-1.435) were also associated with adverse mental health outcomes. This study reveals that both minimal and substantial changes in daily life, as well as both positive and negative changes in economic conditions and health behaviors, were associated with poor mental health outcomes during the pandemic. These findings suggest the need for comprehensive mental health interventions that consider various types and magnitudes of life changes during crisis situations.

Взаимосвязь мотивов конструирования этнической идентичности и индивидуальных ценностей у русских старшеклассников из центрального и дальневосточного регионов России

<p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Objective. </strong>The aim of the study is to verification the hypothesis about the regional specificity of the relationship between the motives of constructing ethnic identity and individual values among Russian high schoolers from the central and far eastern regions of Russia. <br><strong>Background. </strong>Youth are a particularly vulnerable group in situations of permanent uncertainty and atypical crises. It is therefore important to explore the resource potential of different types of social identity and its factors among young people. <br><strong>Study design. </strong>We have conducted a comparative quantitative analysis of the results of the survey of the ethnic majority from the two mono-ethnic Russian regions (in May 2023). <br><strong>Participants. </strong>Russian high schoolers ages 15 to 18 from Smolensk (185 Russians, <em>M </em>= 16,3, <em>SD </em>= 0,48, 59,5% of girls) and Khabarovsk (134 Russians, <em>M</em> = 16,8, <em>SD</em> = 0,72, 67,9% of girls) participated in the study.<br><strong>Measurements. </strong>We used the Scale of Rapid Assessment of Ethnic Identity by N.M. Lebedeva, “Portrait Values Questionnaire” by S.H. Schwarz and author’s items formulated to assess motives of constructing ethnic identity.<br><strong>Results</strong>. Most respondents clearly feel themselves to be members of the Russian ethnic group, but do not see ethnic identity as a significant resource for meeting important needs. The dominant value basis of ethnic identity motives for Russian high schoolers from Smolensk is the Tradition value, and for Russian high schoolers from Khabarovsk – the Achievement value and the Universalism-Nature value. <br><strong>Conclusions. </strong>There is a regional specificity of formation and value bases of construction of the Russian ethnic identity among young members of the ethnic majority in conditions in mono-ethnic environment.</p>

Investigating leadership attributes and strategies during times of crisis and educational change: A story of public primary school principals in Lombok, Indonesia

This research aims to investigate the attributes of school principals and how the principals of public primary schools in rural areas in Lombok, West Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia, demonstrated effective leadership strategies at their respective schools during times of crisis and educational change. This study is based on the stories of school principals’ encounters with challenges during a crisis situation and educational change. The research used a qualitative methodology, namely narrative inquiry, involving four principals from public primary schools in Pringgarata District, Central Lombok, West Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia. Data were gathered via semi-structured and in-depth interviews with the participants, conducted either online or in person. The interview data were transcribed manually and then evaluated thematically through a six-step approach. The study found that the school principals attributes are seizing opportunity to learn, openness, collaboration, and inclusivity; driving innovation; meanwhile, the effective strategies that were demonstrated are intra-school and inter-school leadership strategies. The intra-school strategy includes promoting sustainability, maintaining an efficient educational model for the students, employing a home visit program, and distributing leadership responsibilities among school members. The inter-school strategy involves sharing experiences and resources with others, adapting indigenous perspectives, facilitating connections, and establishing strategic partnerships with the local community.

Addressing evidence needs during health crises in the province of Quebec (Canada): a proposed action plan for rapid evidence synthesis

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic necessitated the rapid availability of evidence to respond in a timely manner to the needs of practice settings and decision-makers in health and social services. Now that the pandemic is over, it is time to put in place actions to improve the capacity of systems to meet knowledge needs in a situation of crisis. The main objective of this project was thus to develop an action plan for the rapid syntheses of evidence in times of health crisis in Quebec (Canada).MethodsWe conducted a three-phase collaborative research project. First, we carried out a survey with producers and users of rapid evidence syntheses (n = 40) and a group interview with three patient partners to prioritize courses of action. In parallel, we performed a systematic mapping of the literature to identify rapid evidence synthesis initiatives developed during the pandemic. The results of these two phases were used in a third phase, in which we organized a deliberative workshop with 26 producers and users of rapid evidence syntheses to identifying strategies to operationalize priorities. The data collected at each phase were compared to identify common courses of action and integrated to develop an action plan.ResultsA total of 14 specific actions structured into four main axes were identified over the three phases. In axis 1, actions on raising awareness of the importance of evidence-informed decision-making among stakeholders in the health and social services network are presented. Axis 2 includes actions to promote optimal collaboration of key stakeholders in the production of rapid evidence synthesis to support decision-making. Actions advocating the use of a variety of rapid evidence synthesis methodologies known to be effective in supporting decision-making are presented in axis 3. Finally, axis 4 is about actions on the use of effective knowledge translation strategies to promote the use of rapid evidence synthesis products to support decision-making.ConclusionsThis project led to the development of a collective action plan aimed at preparing the Quebec ecosystem and other similar jurisdictions to meet knowledge needs more effectively in times of health emergency. The implementation of this plan and its evaluation will enable us to continue to fine-tune it.

Transparent procurement practices and performance of medical supply chain in Kenya

The performance of medical supply chain is vital in ensuring timely and cost-effective delivery of healthcare products, directly impacting patient outcomes and the efficiency of health systems. This study investigates the effect of transparent procurement practices on the performance of medical supply chain in Kenya, with a focus on addressing the pervasive corruption and inefficiencies documented in the sector. A descriptive research design was adopted, utilizing both primary and secondary data collected through questionnaires administered to 100 supply chain management officers within 13 Semi-Autonomous Government Agencies (SAGAs) under the Ministry of Health. Data analysis was conducted using SPSS, employing descriptive statistics, correlation, and regression analysis. The findings revealed a significant positive relationship between transparent procurement practices and medical supply chain performance, with transparency accounting for 48.6% of the variance in performance (R² = 0.486, p < 0.05). Transparent procurement was found to mitigate stockouts, reduce procurement delays, and enhance accountability in resource allocation. These results underscore the importance of institutionalizing transparency measures in public procurement to enhance the efficiency and integrity of Kenya’s healthcare supply chain. The study recommends the adoption of an end-to-end digital procurement systems, training of procurement personnel, and stricter enforcement of public procurement laws and regulations to combat corruption and inefficiencies. These efforts will improve healthcare service delivery and contribute to public health resilience, especially in crisis situations. The findings provide valuable insights for policy and practice, emphasizing the need for transparency in public procurement systems.

Road Drainage System Development in a Siberian City

Negative consequences of global climate change and rapid urbanization are problems of combating urban floods, underflooding and increasing the safety of adjacent water bodies due to the washout of storm water and municipal waste. These problems are being solved slowly and ineffectively. This is explained by harsh climatic conditions in a large number of territories, higher number of abnormal rainfalls, insufficient financial injections into the construction of storm systems from the state and business structures, imperfection of regulatory documents based on outdated information for calculating projects. Conclusions are formulated on ways out of the crisis situation in the city of Tomsk (Western Siberia). It is proposed to improve the collection and drainage of atmospheric water from road sections.The relevance of the work is associated with the improvement of the system of atmospheric wastewater removal from the road pavement and urbanized areas, especially at abnormal volumes of rainwater.Purpose: The aim of the work is to assess environmental, economic and technological potential of Russian and foreign techniques to ensure effective storm water drainage and primary treatment of surface runoff.Methodology/approach: The analysis of the current state and prospects for the implementation of the best foreign practices for collecting, removing from urbanized areas, effective water drainage devices; comparative assessment of practices that are most suitable for continental climate conditions with a long cold period and significant amounts of precipitation; measures to improve the efficiency of storm water drainage; theoretical research of literary sources, theoretical analysis, interdisciplinary synthesis; methods of logical generalizations, patent analysis, search and statistical methods.Research findings: The paper highlights foreign achievements and problems of drainage and storm water treatment from urban roads. Increasing interest in biophilic engineering technologies includes stages of collection and removal of surface runoff water, its primary treatment, and evaporation or infiltration into deep aquifers. The state of the drainage problem in Russia is considered herein. Modern technical means capable of organizing a road drainage system and, if necessary, treating storm water are investigated. The main reasons for the unsatisfactory condition and insufficiency of road drainage systems are identified.Practical implications: Systematization and generalization of approaches to combating excess urban storm water serve as the basis for improving modern drainage systems in Russia. Foreign experience in draining, isolating, and recycling storm water can be used and developed in different natural and climatic zones of Russia with respect to the specifics of their geoecological situation.

Burying poultry carcasses on farms as a disposal option in crisis situations: learnings and perspectives from a field study during an avian influenza epizootic in France

Burying poultry carcasses on farms as a disposal option in crisis situations: learnings and perspectives from a field study during an avian influenza epizootic in France

Nexus of crude oil and clean energy stock indices: Evidence from time-vector-auto-regression in conjunction with conditional-autoregressive-value-at-risk.

The current study aims to elicit information regarding the tail risk transmission mechanism between crude oil (CO) and selected clean energy (CE) stock indices across time and during certain economic events. A Time-Varying Parameter Vector Auto-Regressive model (TVP-VAR) paired with the conditional autoregressive value-at-risk (CAViaR) approach was used to investigate data from January 1, 2015 to December 29, 2022. Overall, we show that an increased vulnerability to tail risk and deficits might be linked to dynamic spillover over examined markets. We also provide evidence that connectedness rises during significant crisis situations, and the last epidemic has the potential to make a lasting impact on the various marketplaces of concern. According to the return and conditional variance time-series, CE stock indices are the most important source of return shocks to CO. However, the CO is the primary cause of volatility in CE stock indices. During the recent virus pandemic, the most significant volatility shock transmissions from CO to CE stock indices occurred. During the Russia-Ukraine war, volatility shocks to CO were mostly caused by CE stock indices. The results of our study offer concrete consequences and new perspectives to various market players in order to improve the management and understanding of risks.

ASSESSMENT OF THE WAR IMPACT ON ENSURING NATIONAL FOOD SECURITY

In the modern conditions of society development, which are characterized by the increase not only of internal problems of the state but also of external extraordinary challenges, the importance of issues of diagnosing the impact of war on the agricultural development of Ukraine in the direction of ensuring the national food security is growing. The article is aimed at assessing the war's impact on the agriculture development of Ukraine, diagnosing development prospects of food security in a war period; providing proposals and recommendations, post-war recovery measures in order to ensure an appropriate level of food security and solve current food crisis situations in a war and post-war period, which are actual and important issue that needs an urgent solution. In the direction of achieving the main purpose, in the research have been applied several general and special scientific methods, namely: the methods of scientific abstraction, analytical diagnostics, statistical and comparative analysis, the method of end-to-end analytics, and regulatory and index criteria etc.The article examines and presents the regional distribution of losses to Ukrainian agriculture in a war period, the structure of agricultural losses from the war by main categories and its detailed description; the structure of indirect financial losses in agriculture from the impact of war and its detailed description, that declared the existence of urgent need for the full restoration of the potential of the industry and requires significant financial and investment resources; recommendations for reconstruction of agricultural resources provision and development of international trade activity in a war and post-war period.The article has defined the key features of food safety regulation at the state level, which made it possible to prove the existence of significant deficiencies in the work of state risk management, and mechanisms for ensuring the country's food and environmental safety. Actual problems of food security ensuring the conditions of the war in Ukraine are identified. The results of a detailed analysis of the state and trends of agricultural sector development in the conditions of the war proved the existence of risk situations that can cause unforeseen and irreversible consequences in the near future.

Social Media as a Tool for Fundraising: Analysing the Strategies of Indian Non-Profits During Covid-19

This research examines the transformative role of social media in non-profit organisations fundraising strategies during crises, focusing on Indian NGOs' digital adaptation during the COVID-19 pandemic. Through a detailed examination of two prominent Indian non-profits—The Akshaya Patra Foundation and Give India—this research employs content analysis and explanatory case study methods to analyze the effectiveness of social media in fundraising efforts. The study examines how these organizations adapted their digital communication strategies to engage stakeholders, raise awareness, and generate funds through crowd funding initiatives during the pandemic. The research methodology combines quantitative content analysis of social media campaigns with qualitative assessment of stakeholder engagement patterns to validate how social media content supports fundraising efforts during crisis periods. The findings reveal significant patterns in how successful non-profits leverage social media for crisis fundraising, demonstrating the crucial role of strategic digital communication in mobilizing resources for humanitarian causes. Based on these insights, the research proposes a comprehensive social model paradigm for non-profit organizations, providing practical frameworks for implementing effective social media campaign strategies. This study contributes to the growing body of knowledge on digital communication in the non-profit sector, offering valuable insights for organizations seeking to enhance their social media presence and fundraising capabilities during crisis situations.

MILITARY SUPPORT TO CIVIL AUTHORITIES AND THE PUBLIC – WITH REGARD TO CIVIL PROTECTION

The armed forces are the largest and best organised fundamental part of the state organisationwhose high performance determines the stability and strength of the state, its sovereignty andthe provision of national and international security. Undoubtedly, the fundamental missionof the Polish Armed Forces is the ability to defend vital interests of the state, i.e. to ensure thesovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of the Republic. Nevertheless, the armed forcesare also a very important potential of the state in supporting civil authorities and society in crisissituations. In the past, the main task of the armed forces was primarily to ensure military securityin terms of defending the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of the state. However,nowadays, in national and international terms, their scope of tasks has definitely broadened tocomprise undertakings in support of public administration bodies and society in crisis situations.This is due to the fact that the armed forces are characterised by unique capabilities, unparalleledin other response forces, to take effective action in the event of diverse crisis situations. Thus, theyhave become an important reinforcement of the crisis management and civil protection system.Often, they can be the main element of support to public administration bodies (government andlocal government) in resolving the crisis situation that has arisen.

Угрозы для национальных экономик со стороны бесконтрольного движения капитала и механизмы их купирования

The financial authorities of many countries involved in the process of globalizing the world economy are observing the positive consequences of including their country in a single financial network, forgetting about the need to monitor potential threats. The increasing volume of cross-border transactions creates the illusion of improving the national economy, since along with capital imported from abroad, the country gets the opportunity to boost its economic development. The international movement of capital (IMC), being an integral part of globalization, creates the misconception that there are inexhaustible resources for the development and further accumulation of national wealth, but foreign investors are not always interested in the development of the economy of their host country. False expectations from capital coming from abroad create excessively high risks for the national economy, which is confirmed by numerous examples of the implementation of these risks in many countries that have entrusted their economic well-being to the process of globalization. The purpose of this article is to substantiate the existence of risk from uncontrolled cross-border transactions. The practical significance of the article is expressed in the assessment of the effectiveness of the control mechanisms used in different countries for MDK in crisis situations. This article examines examples of the negative impact of the IMC on the economies of Argentina (2011-2016), India (1991-1995) and Malaysia (1997-1998) based on statistics from the IMF and the World Bank, as well as the experience of these countries in overcoming financial problems that arose due to insufficiently strict capital control policies. The analysis made it possible to assess the need and effectiveness of using strict administrative control mechanisms for IMC in a crisis. However, this article does not provide a universal methodology for determining the most effective control mechanisms, which may be the subject of study in future studies.

Digital technologies in the global humanitarian sector: A case study of Ukraine

A critical approach regarding the potential for side effects associated with the use of digital technologies in the humanitarian sector as well as identifying potential risk factors arising from their “experimental” or “hasty” and unstructured use of the technologies in crises, finds real justification and is recommended by the humanitarian community, and notably the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. Based on a literature review, reports containing data on humanitarian sector, as well as interviews with humanitarian practitioners, the phenomena occurring at the interface between humanitarian space and new technologies and their associated risks were analysed. The paper identifies critical, unresolved gaps in the legal, management and ethical frameworks of digital humanitarianism, among others accountability issues that have traditionally regulated the professional conduct of operations in this sector. It also presents the phenomena emerging in the context of response to the crisis situation in Ukraine. The Ukrainian case study, by bringing new digital experiences to the sector, will probably contribute to enriching the “learning” process of humanitarian agencies for similar emergencies in the future.

ПРИМЕНЕНИЕ ИСКУССТВЕННОГО ИНТЕЛЛЕКТА В АНТИКРИЗИСНОМ УПРАВЛЕНИИ ОРГАНИЗАЦИЕЙ

In recent years, there has been active digitalization of various industries. One of the promising end-to-end technologies is artificial intelligence. The introduction of tools based on its application helps to optimize business processes and management, including anti-crisis management, which is especially sensitive to the speed and objectivity of decisions made. This is due to the dynamism of the external environment and the inefficiency of applying methods that made it possible to diagnose and resolve crises earlier in the new conditions. At the same time, there is a lag in the scientific and methodological base from the demands of practical activities. The article provides an overview of the opportunities provided by the use of artificial intelligence technologies for solving anti-crisis management problems (analysis of the external environment, internal potential, competitive advantages, strategic restructuring and a posteriori analysis of the causes of crisis situations). Special attention is paid to assessing the readiness of Russian organizations to implement the relevant tools. As a result of the study, the scale of AI use at the current stage of digital transformation was determined, as well as the prospects for its further development at various levels of management. Conclusions are made about the positive effects (increased speed, quality and objectivity of decisions taken, reduced costs of crisis management) of the use of new technologies, provided that they are comprehensively implemented taking into account risks.

Acpects of Resilience in Organ Performance

The term “resilience” is also encountered more and more often in the field of musical art. In this paper, we explore the connection between resilience and the performing arts, specifically focused on organ playing. The survey concerns active, professional performers, who have to overcome not only the stress of public performance but also other stressful moments in their artistic activity. In the questionnaire and the subsequent discussion, we seek answers to the following questions: What are the most frequent stressful moments in organ playing? What problems do organists encounter in their concert activities? Finally, what helps organists to eliminate crisis situations in concert performances?

Particular vulnerability of patients with borderline personality disorder during the COVID-19 pandemic – a retrospective chart review

BackgroundMental health consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic have been a major research focus since its beginning. A specific vulnerability of patients with borderline personality disorder (BPD) following social distancing measures has been reported, however there is a lack of adequately sized studies that provide evidence of this vulnerability. Suicide attempts may reflect mental health effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in psychiatric settings.MethodsRetrospective follow-up analysis of clinical documentation in a psychiatric emergency department (pED) of a major academic psychiatric hospital in Berlin, Germany. Observation periods include the first- (3/2/2020–5/24/2020) and second-wave (9/15/2020–3/1/2021) of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany and respective periods one year earlier as control-periods. Poisson-regression was used for statistical modelling of individual counts of pED presentations after a suicide attempt.ResultsN = 4110 patients attended the pED during the four observation periods. BPD patients were associated with elevated risk of pED presentation after a suicide attempt during COVID-periods (RR = 3.4; p = .014). Schizophrenia and psychotic disorders showed lower risk of pED presentation after a suicide attempt during COVID-periods (RR = 0.4; p = .048). Other diagnostic groups did not show significant interaction effects with COVID-periods. The first-wave was a risk factor for pED presentation after a suicide attempt affecting the sample across all diagnostic groups (RR = 3.1; p = .006).ConclusionsBPD patients seem to be particularly vulnerable during the COVID-19 pandemic showing increased rates of suicide attempts during both COVID-periods. This should be addressed in future health crises by ensuring availability of psychosocial help. There is a need for further research regarding BPD patients in public health crisis situations.

Memetic algorithms and dynamic programming on vehicle routing problems in crisis situations

Memetic algorithms and dynamic programming on vehicle routing problems in crisis situations

PROFIT FORMATION OF BANKING INSTITUTIONS IN UKRAINE: MODERN REALITIES

In the article examines the theoretical and practical aspects of profit formation of banking institutions in Ukraine in the pre-war period and at the present stage. Approaches to determining the bank's profit are considered and its importance for the state, the banking institution and its employees is highlighted. It was found that the effective functioning of domestic banks will contribute to the stabilization of the economy of our country as a whole, and therefore, ensuring the financial stability of banks is of national importance. The system of forming a positive financial result and its quality management is the duty and main task of every banking institution today and requires constant analysis. The ability to accurately estimate and effectively manage the bank's cash flows allows you to receive planned benefits from the implementation of activities both in the interests of the bank and in the interests of its clients. In the article analyzes the consequences of the functioning of the domestic banking business in conditions of constant crisis situations, highlights the influencing factors on changes in banking income and expenses. Despite the decrease in the number of banks by more than half, the income of banks over the last ten years has increased by almost half due to the growth of interest and commission income. A forecast was made regarding the future growth of banking income. It was established that the main reason for the increase in the profitability of the banking system in the pre-war period and the record profit in the second year after the beginning of the full-scale invasion of the russian federation was the increase in interest income from highly liquid assets and lending. The paper evaluates the effectiveness of banking business in wartime conditions and makes a forecast of financial results and profitability of capital and assets of domestic banking institutions for the nearest future. The increase in profitability indicators showed a general improvement in the financial stability of the banking system. Despite the deterioration of the general economic situation in the country, the situation on the market of banking services remains favorable.