Site Choice Models Research Articles

A recreation demand model for warmwater fishing in Delaware with welfare effects for improvements in catch rates, species diversity, and water clarity

Abstract We estimate a recreation demand model for warmwater fishing in Delaware and then use it to measure welfare gains associated with improved fishing quality as measured by catch rate of fish, diversity of species, and clarity of water. We use a “linked” site choice – trip frequency model with data gathered by the Delaware Division of Fish and Wildlife. Our site choice model includes 118 rivers and lakes in the state with detailed characteristics of each. We develop hypothetical scenarios of fishing quality improvement involving combinations of fish catch, fish diversity, and water clarity and apply it to individual water bodies, water basins, selected water body groupings, and statewide. Values are reported in seasonal per angler and aggregate terms.

The Recreational Value of the Baltic Sea Coast: A Spatially Explicit Site Choice Model Accounting for Environmental Conditions

The coast plays a significant recreational role in the nine countries around the Baltic Sea. More than 70% of the population of these countries visit the coast, representing some 80 million recreational visits annually. Understanding the values associated with coastal recreation, and the potential welfare changes resulting from improvements in the state of environmental and infrastructure conditions of the Baltic Sea coast is important for marine environment management in the region. We estimate a spatially explicit travel cost model for Baltic coast recreation to assess the welfare of accessing individual sites, identify recreational hot spots and simulate the welfare changes resulting from improvements in environmental and infrastructure conditions. The total benefits associated with Baltic Sea coast-based recreation amount to 27.5 billion EUR per year with significant variation across sites. Improving water quality and infrastructure boost the recreational value by nearly 6.2 billion EUR, an increase of about a fifth of the existing recreational benefits.

Estimating habit‐forming and variety‐seeking behavior: Valuation of recreational birdwatching

AbstractPast experiences influence choices, and people's preferences for more similar (habit‐forming) or different (variety‐seeking) experiences are reflected in these choices. We develop a structural estimation framework to capture whether people are habit forming or variety seeking and apply it to the choice of recreation site. This research contributes to the revealed preference literature by demonstrating how to account for habit or variety‐seeking behavior in recreation site choice models in a two‐stage framework. Using this framework, we estimate similarity weights that reflect the birders habit formation and variety seeking preferences. Predicted probabilities from the first stage model are then incorporated into the second stage, a mixed logit recreation site choice model of bird watching trips from eBird, by their members. We find that including the dynamic elements of choice, specifically variety‐seeking behavior, can double the estimated willingness to pay (WTP) for individual sites relative to the static model. Although our sample of bird watching trips taken by eBird members is a sample of convenience, these results suggest that static models of recreation site choice are a lower bound on our recreation demand WTP estimates. We find variety‐seeking preferences are related to land cover and the site's fixed attributes, whereas habit formation appears for seasonality in the bird watching context.

Estimating Regional Aggregate Economic Value of Forest Recreation Services with Linked Travel Cost Model

Multi-site linked travel cost models answer the need for aggregate demand and economic value estimations that consider the attributes of all forest recreation sites in a region and the preferences of visitors at the regional level. This study aimed to predict the aggregate value of forest recreation services in Ankara Province, Turkey, with a discrete choice-count data-linked model in the context of current and changing levels of forest attributes. In the first stage, the site choice model was predicted with the random parameter logit model; in the second stage, the trip demand model was estimated with the negative binomial model. The expected consumer surplus per trip derived from the first model was used as the link variable in the second model. The expected consumer surplus per trip of 14 forest recreation sites was estimated at 137.34 TL, and the annual aggregate consumer surplus per capita was estimated at 156.59 TL—a total of 13.49 million TL in the study area. This study predicts the total benefit will increase by 65% if the development stage of stands at recreation sites increases by two stages, degraded stands are improved, stands have a normal canopy, and the camping facilities are improved.

Phenomenological and mechanistic modeling of recreational angling behavior using creel data

Improved understanding of angling behavior in recreational fisheries can help managers account for partial controllability in systems in which angling effort is not directly regulated. Relevant aspects of angling behavior include fishing participation, site choice, and catch-and-release actions and can be considered at scales of both aggregate fishing effort and individual-decision-making. Using creel survey data collected across eight fishery seasons, we predicted aggregate angling effort (e.g., daily number of boating trips engaged in fishing) and characterized influences of individual trip-based site choice for recreational fisheries acting on fall-run Chinook salmon and coho salmon near the mouth of the Columbia River, United States of America. We applied an overdispersed Poisson likelihood-based generalized linear model with an autoregressive structure to aggregate boating effort and a multinomial logit model to trip-based site choice decisions among separate ocean and estuary fishing zones. Predictive models explained 71% and 79% of out-of-sample and in-sample variability in aggregate effort, respectively, and included the covariates weekend status, Chinook salmon catch rate, tidal range, and pre-season expectations of fish abundance. In addition to reinforcing the importance of Chinook salmon catch rate and tidal range, site choice model selection revealed influences of weather, fishery restrictions, expected fishery season lengths, and the individual-specific characteristics of boat length and guide status on decision-making. Model results provide predictive models for short-term fishery planning, highlight heterogeneity in individual decision-making, and illustrate the value of standardized creel data for evaluating angling behavior.

The Effect of Site Congestion on Valuing Freshwater Fishing for Urban Residents

This paper provides evidence that welfare estimates from recreation demand models can be severely biased if the model omits congestion effects. Congestion effects arise when crowding at popular sites lowers site values. Measuring the effect of congestion is complicated by a well-known endogeneity problem in revealed preference data. We study congestion effects in a sample of licensed anglers in Oklahoma City. We develop a site choice model of freshwater fishing, and correct for endogenous congestion using an instrumental variables strategy. Our results add to the growing weight of evidence that ignoring congestion leads to estimates that understate the value of individual sites and site amenities.

Coarse angler site choice model with perceived site attributes

Abstract Choice models are applied to a sample of users of Irish coarse fishing sites. The site choice models are developed using respondent's perception of site attributes and revealed trip frequencies. The random parameter logit is employed to account for unobserved taste heterogeneity. Willingness to pay estimates are constructed for each site attribute and a number of policy changes. The results of the site choice model indicate that accessibility, variety, and the size of fish are significant positive determinants of site selection for the sampled anglers. Local services have a negative impact on site selection, whereas the quantity of fish and the level of encounters with other anglers does not play a significant role. Willingness to pay estimates indicate that the average willingness to pay for an improvement in access to a site is €3.03. However, the policy scenarios suggest that this figure is not evenly distributed for each site. The average sampled angler is estimated to have a willingness to pay of €1.80 for an increase in fish size at Killykeen, and €2.39 for a marginal increase in size at Garadice. Management implication A key aim of the Irish National Strategy for Angling Development (NSAD) is to increase the number of Irish people that regularly participate in angling. A comprehensive understanding of angler preferences may improve management's ability to reach this goal. This paper demonstrates that Irish coarse anglers are heterogeneous in their preferences. Policy should account for this by allowing for sites that vary with respect to important site attributes. The model results advocate that, on average, developing better access to sites that contain large fish away from areas with high levels of amenities would benefit Irish coarse anglers most. However, due care is needed when providing additional access as scenario estimates demonstrate that access is not uniformly appealing and, that, an improvement in access at the most visited sites will not necessarily benefit anglers the most. The results also indicate that stocking sites with large quantities of fish may not affect anglers, at least with respect to site choice.

Pike (Esox lucius) stock management in designated brown trout (Salmo trutta) fisheries: Anglers’ preferences

The sustainable management of fisheries is increasingly as much about people as it is about stock management and an important prerequisite for managing stakeholder disagreement is an understanding of each party's position and perspective. In Ireland pike stocks are actively managed within specific fisheries for the purpose of protecting brown trout stocks. Associated public discussion is increasingly polarized with a clear message that trout anglers favour and pike anglers oppose such management intervention. A first step towards successfully managing the tension between all stakeholders is a better understanding of the broad spectrum of anglers’ views. Latent-class site-choice models are estimated with choice experiment data to reveal information on anglers’ preferences with the data collected via an online survey from 341 members of a recreational angling research panel. Several policy relevant lessons arise from the analysis. First, anglers’ preferences are not homogeneous, either among pike or trout anglers. Angler stakeholder groups cannot reasonably attest to represent all pike or trout anglers. There are multiple distinct classes of anglers with quite different preferences on pike stock control as well as other fishery attributes, such as bag limits and catch rates. Second, while anglers have strong preferences across a number of fishery attributes (e.g. catch rates, pollution, invasive weeds, etc.), pike stock control is the predominant attribute affecting anglers’ behaviour. Third, among trout anglers there is a sizeable majority opposed to the maintenance of existing pike stock control measures, which is at odds with a vociferous public campaign led by trout angling representative organizations. The preferences of this ‘silent’ majority reflect the fact that approximately 2-in-5 trout anglers also fish for pike. In general, the research helps inform fishery management decisions, dispelling the idea of a clear dichotomy between pike and trout anglers and instead illuminates the complexity of anglers’ preferences.

Site preferences and participation of waterbird recreationists: Using choice modelling to inform habitat management

Recreationists utilizing wetland birds for hunting or birdwatching contribute significantly to local economies and conservation efforts. The waterfowl management community, through the 2012 North American Waterfowl Management Plan (NAWMP), has explicitly recognized the need to increase recruitment and retention of wetland bird recreationists to help halt the national decline in social support for conservation. Achieving this goal requires that waterfowl and wetland managers consider how recreation site characteristics and management impact participation and support for wetland conservation. The outdoor recreation management and natural resource economics fields have extensive experience with similar problems and frequently use recreational site choice models to link attributes of recreational areas to use by recreationists. The waterfowl management community has several publicly available, long-term data sets that can be used in site choice models. We introduce U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service waterfowl harvest survey data, U.S. Geological Survey band encounter data, and Cornell Lab of Ornithology eBird data and use those data to summarize travel characteristics of wetland bird enthusiasts. We used harvest survey and eBird data in choice models to predict and compare the impacts of three seemingly similar proposed habitat acquisitions on use by recreationists in the state of Georgia; the proposal that had the greatest increase in predicted trips would result in twice as many additional hunting trips and >10 times more additional birdwatching trips than the proposal that generated the fewest additional trips. This case study demonstrates the potential of these and similar data and analytical methods for incorporating recreation participation and site preferences into habitat planning and delivery under the NAWMP. We encourage the outdoor recreation management and economics communities and the waterfowl management community to build partnerships and cooperative projects to improve our understanding of the relationships between wetland bird users and habitat conservation. Management implications•Results from our site choice models can provide a natural and intuitive metric that can be used to evaluate the relative merits of alternative management actions in achieving social objectives. An improvement over current proposals evaluated on a qualitative description of public access might be achieved through using the choice modeling approach to obtain quantitative estimates of the expected increase in public use resulting from a proposal.•Future research efforts that utilize finer resolution recreation site choice information would allow for a better understanding of recreationists’ decision processes and could provide managers with valuable insights into the benefits of quality improvements at state parks, managed areas, and other management units of interest.•Researchers should also work with state agencies to identify sources of finer resolution site characteristic data, such as the distribution and availability of public land, recreational regulations, and presence of infrastructure.•Researchers should explore interdisciplinary collaborations with ecological modelers to model expected sightings or expected harvest as a function of spatially-explicit environmental and landscape characteristics. Such a model could then be linked to a recreation site choice model, allowing the tracing of wetland restoration/enhancement benefits through a change in the biological system, and ultimately the change in trip locations, total trips, and/or economic benefits.•We encourage the natural resource management and economics professionals to build partnerships and cooperative projects with the NAWMP community to improve our understanding of the preferences, participation, and motivation of wetland bird users and their relationships to habitat conservation and management.

Scale heterogeneity in recreationists’ decision making: Evidence from a site choice model of sport fishing

Recreation managers and planners recognize the importance of individual preferences and analysts have responded by incorporating individual and group-level heterogeneity in models of recreation behavior. We present a site choice model of recreational fishing that incorporates unobserved heterogeneity through a scale effect. By testing for scale heterogeneity, the model more accurately measures variation in site preferences compared with a conditional logit model, and demonstrates that site quality can affect fishing behavior unevenly across individuals. This result has important implications when using the model to predict fishing behavior and to value site quality and site access. We used the results to simulate the welfare impacts of several hypothetical improvements in fish abundance and find that ignoring scale heterogeneity can lead to inflated economic benefit estimates. Management implicationsThe information in this study can be used by fisheries managers to economically substantiate and motivate actions to enhance the benefits of recreational fishing. The analysis demonstrates that diversity of preferences means some anglers choose fishing sites based on information about catch and accessibility, while others care less about these characteristics. Nevertheless, in general, we find that anglers in the U.S. southwest value increases in bass and walleye abundance as well as state programs to improve public fishing access.

Discrete choice modelling of fisheries with nuanced spatial information

Temporary marine area closures or more permanent Marine Protected Areas are being proposed as potential options in ecosystem-based marine spatial management. These policy options are known to displace fishing effort. In this paper, EU Vessel Monitoring System (VMS) data is combined with other site and vessel information and used to model the fishing site choice decision of Irish demersal otter trawlers. Uniquely, the fishing ground options used in the analysis reflect the actual seabed contours trawled by the fleet. The fishing site choice model, based on this natural site definition is compared to an alternative destination choice model where the fleet decision is specified using a grid based site definition as employed in previous work. It is argued that the natural site specification is a more realistic specification of the fisher site choice decision. Using the preferred natural fishing site choice model, a policy scenario involving the hypothetical closure of one of the fishing ground options is then simulated to examine the possible redistribution of fishing effort.

It's not where you do it, it's who you do it with?

Individuals often recreate with others, but models of recreation-site choice (which ski area, climbing route, golf course, or bike trail) ignore the social aspect—a trait they share with most choice models. Site-choice models seek to explain site choice as a function of only the cost of visiting each site, the physical characteristics of the sites, income, and other characteristics of the individual. They ignore the influence of others on site choice. We find, using choice experiments, that having a companion and the companion's relative ability are critical determinants of site choice—what social psychology would predict. One will often choose a site less preferred in terms of its costs and characteristics if one has a companion of one's ability at the lesser site but not at the better site. Companions of comparable ability are preferred over companions that are better or worse. And, importantly, how one values the physical characteristics of sites depends on whether one has a companion. The magnitudes of our estimated companion effects suggest recreation-demand models that ignore them, all do, omit a critical endogenous variable. An implication is that observed trip patterns can be generated by social-interaction game playing (“where I go depends on where you go and …”), not utility maximization in isolation. This paper does not model the game; it estimates a recreator's utility/reaction function with companion effects, showing the importance of the social component.

Ranking management strategies with complex outcomes: An AHP-fuzzy evaluation of recreational fishing using an integrated agent-based model of a coral reef ecosystem

The management of recreational fishing requires resolving conflicting interests and is thus among the most controversial natural resource related issues. Decision making is difficult because of two main factors: first, there is lack of prediction tools that help managers and other stakeholders assess the potential impacts of management changes; second, decisions or management strategies affect multiple social and ecological outcomes and picking the best among sets of multiple outcomes is a complex task. Resource management and stakeholder dialogue can be greatly improved by addressing these problems. In this paper, we propose a decision support system (DSS) for assessing management strategies. The DSS incorporates an integrated agent-based simulation model for tackling the first obstacle and an analytical hierarchy process (AHP)-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation approach to facilitate multi-criteria decision making.The agent-based simulation model incorporates recreational fishing behaviour within a reef ecosystem. Angler behaviour is driven by empirically estimated site choice models which link recreational choices to site attributes and angler characteristics. Coral reef ecosystem dynamics is modelled using a trophic-dynamic model describing the relationship among fish populations, fishing activities as well as algal and coral growth. The second component of the DSS, the AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation part, allows one to combine resource managers’ preferences with simulated economic and ecosystem outcomes in the assessment of alternative strategies. A fuzzy multi-criteria, multi-layer evaluation method is used to obtain final ranking.As a case study for this paper, we focus on the management of recreational fishing sites from the Ningaloo Marine Park, an iconic coral reef system in Western Australia. A set of management strategies, including a “business-as-usual” strategy and alternative site closure strategies are assessed using the proposed DSS. The site closure strategies evaluated vary in length and timing. Further, these evaluations are undertaken for two fishing pressure scenarios (high and low). We illustrate the usefulness of the DSS by evaluating these strategies. We also present some results from a sensitivity analysis focussing on changes in preferences.

Evaluating the effects of area closure for recreational fishing in a coral reef ecosystem: The benefits of an integrated economic and biophysical modeling

This paper presents an integrated agent-based model of recreational fishing behavior within a reef ecosystem as a platform for the evaluation of recreational fishing management strategies. Angler behavior is described using econometrically estimated site choice models, with site choice among anglers driven by site attributes and angler characteristics. The biophysical model represents the marine reef environment as a system with different trophic levels identifying algal and coral growth as well as two types of fish (piscivores and herbivores). Ecosystem dynamics are driven by interactions within the trophic levels and interaction between fish populations and fishing activities. The model is used to simulate recreational fishing activities and their interactions with the environment. Recreational fishing sites from the Ningaloo Marine Park, an iconic coral reef system in Western Australia, are used as a case study. A set of management strategies, including “business-as-usual” and different site closure durations, are assessed for two different levels of fishing pressures. The results show that not only the effectiveness but also the distribution of management impacts across space and over time can be very different from what one would expect without the benefit of integrated modeling.

Addressing onsite sampling in recreation site choice models

Independent experts and politicians have criticized statistical analyses of recreation behavior, which rely upon onsite samples due to their potential for biased inference. The use of onsite sampling usually reflects data or budgetary constraints, but can lead to two primary forms of bias in site choice models. First, the strategy entails sampling site choices rather than sampling individuals—a form of bias called endogenous stratification. Under these conditions, sample choices may not reflect the site choices of the true population. Second, exogenous attributes of the individuals sampled onsite may differ from the attributes of individuals in the population—the most common form in recreation demand is avidity bias. We propose addressing these biases by combining two the existing methods: Weighted Exogenous Stratification Maximum Likelihood estimation and propensity score estimation. We use the National Marine Fisheries Service's Marine Recreational Fishing Statistics Survey to illustrate methods of bias reduction, employing both simulated and empirical applications. We find that propensity score based weights can significantly reduce bias in estimation. Our results indicate that failure to account for these biases can overstate anglers' willingness to pay for improvements in fishing catch, but weighted models exhibit higher variance of parameter estimates and willingness to pay.

Addressing Onsite Sampling in Recreation Site Choice Models

Independent experts and politicians have criticized statistical analyses of recreation behavior that rely upon onsite samples due to their potential for biased inference, prompting some to suggest support for these efforts should be curtailed. The use of onsite sampling usually reflects data or budgetary constraints but can lead to two primary forms of bias in site choice models. First, the strategy entails sampling site choices rather than sampling anglers – a form of bias called endogenous stratification. Under these conditions, sample choices may not reflect the site choices of the true population. Second, the exogenous attributes of the recreational users sampled onsite may differ from the attributes of users in the population – the most common form in recreation demand is avidity bias. We propose addressing these biases by combining two existing methods, Weighted Exogenous Stratification Maximum Likelihood Estimation (WESMLE) and propensity score estimation. We use the National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS) Marine Recreational Fishing Statistics Survey (MRFSS) to illustrate methods of bias reduction employing both simulation and empirical applications. We find that propensity score based weights can significantly reduce bias in estimation. Our results indicate that failure to account for these biases can overstate anglers’ willingness to pay for additional fishing catch.

Recreation demand estimation and valuation in spatially connected systems

Recreation demand models frequently are used to explain outdoor recreation behavior and to estimate willingness to pay for changes in environmental quality at recreation sites. Among the most commonly used recreation demand models are site choice models based on the multinomial logit framework, which account for the spatial relationships between each recreator's home and multiple alternative destinations thereby capturing the substitution possibilities among recreation sites. However, standard applications of this framework typically do not account for the possibility of spatial connections among the sites via movements of the target species, such as fish in connected water bodies in recreational angling applications or terrestrial species in hunting or wildlife viewing applications. In this paper we examine aspects of environmental valuation and natural resource dynamics that generally are addressed separately. Specifically, we show that in such spatially connected systems, a “reduced form” application of the standard site choice modeling approach, using proxy measures of environmental quality rather than direct measures of species abundances, can produce biased estimates of willingness to pay for environmental improvements. Furthermore, we show that under some conditions poorly targeted environmental improvements in spatially connected systems can lead to welfare decreases. In such systems a structural model of recreator site choices and species sorting behavior and population dynamics may be required to fully account for the spatial linkages among sites and the feedback effects between recreators and the target species.

The restoration of fishing services and the conveyance of risk information in the Southern California Bight

Abstract Southern California's marine areas are heavily contaminated with dichloro-diphenyl-trichloroethane (DDT) and polychlorinated-biphenyls (PCBs), and fish consumption advisories (FCAs) have been issued throughout the region. Between 2002 and 2003, the Montrose Angler Survey, a large-scale survey of subsistence anglers, was developed and implemented on site in Orange and Los Angeles counties. This survey was intended to assist natural resource trustees in the development of restoration programs that will address injuries to natural resources and restore lost economic services for anglers, but the data were never fully analyzed. The trustees have shown a clear preference for ecological restoration programs that may take years to improve fishing services. In contrast, this analysis, which includes a random-parameter fishing site choice model, demonstrates that simple, inexpensive programs such as better signage to warn of FCAs and transportation to clean sites have the potential to yield substantial benefits quickly. This paper also focuses on how different ethnic minority groups are affected by FCAs, and determines how best to communicate risk information and change fishing behavior through outreach programs.

Valuing Beach Closures on the Padre Island National Seashore

We estimate the economic loss due to hypothetical beach clo- sures on the Padre Island National Seashore on the Gulf Coast of Texas. We consider the closure of the entire park, groups of beaches in the park, and for comparison, beaches elsewhere on the coast. We estimate a linked site choice/trip frequency model of day trips. The site choice model is estimated using multinomial and mixed logit. The trip frequency model is estimated us- ing a negative binomial regression. Using the mixed logit model, the mean per-trip loss for the closure of all Padre beaches is about $20; the loss-to-trip ratio is about $180, and the aggregate loss for a season (May-September) is about $73 million (2008$).

Examining State Dependence and Place Attachment Within a Recreational Fishing Site Choice Model

Many contexts including the fidelity that recreationists have for sites may affect the choices of recreational sites by individuals. This study expands the choice model research on state dependence by examining state dependence at site and larger spatial scales. Analyses of recreational fishing site choices by anglers from northern Ontario, Canada suggest that anglers exhibit state dependence at both the site and larger spatial scales. Attempts to understand the importance of state dependence through self reports of place attachment dimensions among the anglers provided mixed results. No significant relationships were found between place identity and the importance of site or spatial state dependence to anglers. While having no significant effect on site state dependence, place dependence was positively associated with the importance of spatial state dependence among approximately 65% of the anglers. Evidently, anglers who viewed themselves as dependent upon a fishing area were more likely to take their fishing trips in a constrained space than were other anglers. These conclusions are influenced by the difference between the larger spatial scale for the place attachment questions (i.e., favorite fishing area) than for the choice model (i.e., fishing site).