Estimating Regional Aggregate Economic Value of Forest Recreation Services with Linked Travel Cost Model

Abstract

Multi-site linked travel cost models answer the need for aggregate demand and economic value estimations that consider the attributes of all forest recreation sites in a region and the preferences of visitors at the regional level. This study aimed to predict the aggregate value of forest recreation services in Ankara Province, Turkey, with a discrete choice-count data-linked model in the context of current and changing levels of forest attributes. In the first stage, the site choice model was predicted with the random parameter logit model; in the second stage, the trip demand model was estimated with the negative binomial model. The expected consumer surplus per trip derived from the first model was used as the link variable in the second model. The expected consumer surplus per trip of 14 forest recreation sites was estimated at 137.34 TL, and the annual aggregate consumer surplus per capita was estimated at 156.59 TL—a total of 13.49 million TL in the study area. This study predicts the total benefit will increase by 65% if the development stage of stands at recreation sites increases by two stages, degraded stands are improved, stands have a normal canopy, and the camping facilities are improved.