In order to predict the joint opening-closing deformation of immersed tunnel in operation, a comprehensive prediction model combining time series decomposition, least square method, sparrow search algorithm (SSA) and support vector regression (SVR) is proposed, which is verified by the monitoring data of E13-E14 and E17-E18 joints opening-closing deformation of immersed tunnel in Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge. Firstly, on the basis of summarizing and analyzing the characteristics of joint opening-closing deformation, the monitoring sequence of joint opening-closing is decomposed into trend component, periodic component and residual component by using time series decomposition singular spectrum analysis method, which clearly shows the composition of each component. Secondly, the least square method is used to fit and predict the trend component; Combining the commonly used RBF kernel function, Sigmoid kernel function and Ploy kernel function with SVR respectively, the SSA algorithm is used to globally optimize the penalty factors and kernel function parameters of the three models, and the optimized three coupling models are used to predict the periodic component and residual component. The results show that the prediction effect of the SVR model optimized by SSA algorithm is better than that of the traditional SVR model, The prediction result of SSA-SVR model constructed by RBF kernel function is the best. Finally, the time series addition model is applied to superimpose the optimal predicted values to obtain the predicted opening-closing amount. The mean square errors of the total predicted values of the opening-closing amount of the two joints are 0.1900mm and 0.2291mm respectively, the average errors are 0.1587mm and 0.2156mm respectively, and the correlation coefficients are 0.9792 and 0.9695 respectively. A satisfactory prediction effect is obtained, which proves the reliability and accuracy of this method, and provides a new way for the prediction of the opening-closing deformation of the pipe joint of immersed tunnel during the operation period.
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