We calculate the cross section for forward J/ψ production in proton-proton and minimum bias proton-lead collisions using the color glass condensate (CGC) and nonrelativistic QCD (NRQCD) formalism consistently with deep inelastic scattering data. The cross section for color singlet states is sensitive to a four-point correlator of Wilson lines for which we describe in the Gaussian approximation in the large-Nc limit. Furthermore, we quantify the importance of finite-Nc corrections to have a small ∼12% effect. In contrast with the generic NRQCD expectation, we show that the color singlet contribution is only 15% to the total cross section. We also compare our predictions for J/ψ production as well as for the nuclear modification ratio RpPb to LHCb and ALICE data. We find a good agreement at forward rapidities, except at low transverse momenta where the cross sections are overestimated. Published by the American Physical Society 2024
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