Single Year Research Articles

How Sampling and Averaging Historical Solar and Wind Data Can Distort Resource Adequacy

Capacity planning models and resource adequacy assessments have often relied on averaging and sampling techniques that disregard important reasonably expected interactions of weather-based resources. We provide a method to capture the economic value of information and reliability risk from using inadequate sample data to design sustainable systems with high renewable generation. Analysis of long run portfolio cost and sources of uncertainty shows as much as a 16% system cost increase with a 38-fold increase in expected unserved energy when average renewable outputs are modeled rather than a 10 year hourly coincident sample, which illustrates the pitfalls of averaging data and ignoring temporal interdependencies. Investment recommendations can significantly differ depending on which years and how many years are included in the analysis. We show that selecting the wrong year can increase system costs by over 4% with a 7-fold increase in expected unserved energy, failing to meet planned reliability and renewable design targets. It is possible for a single year of coincident load-wind-solar data to reasonably approximate system characteristics; however, the best year changes with renewable penetration.

The effect and mechanism of motor control exercise on low back pain: a narrative review.

Low back pain (LBP) is a common symptom that can occur in all ages. It is the first common cause of disability globally and is associated with over 60 million disability-adjusted life-years in a single year. Motor control exercise (MCE) has obtained increasing attention in treating LBP. However, the findings from distinct meta-analyses differed and some even reached controversial conclusions. More importantly, how MCE improves LBP-related symptoms remains unclear. The primary aim of this study is to describe the possible improvement mechanisms of MCE on LBP from brain, biochemistry, inflammatory, and neuromuscular aspects. The secondary aim is to further conclude its effectiveness and clinical application. Further understanding of mechanisms and effectiveness could be instructive for future LBP treatments and provide more information for clinicians when making prescriptions. MCE is effective in alleviating pain and disability among patients with acute and chronic LBP. Notably, the evidence for acute LBP is relatively low-quality and limited. MCE might be more effective for patients with specific LBP characteristics, especially those with pre-diagnosis of impaired transversus abdominis recruitment, intermediate pain intensity, and longer MCE training duration. MCE could remap brain representation and reverse negative brain alternation, induce exercise-induced hypoalgesia, mediate anti-inflammatory response, retain normal activation, and improve morphological deficits.

The Impact of a Hands-On Interventional Radiology Training Course on Radiology Resident's Training: A Single Academic Institution Experience

Abstract Purpose The aim of this study was to investigate the outcomes of an instructional hands-on training course that introduces radiology residents to the essential tools and skills needed to perform basic interventional radiology (IR) procedures. Materials and Methods This study was performed over a single academic year at a single academic institution. A precourse survey was sent to all radiology residents to identify areas of weakness and potential opportunities for improvement. In view of the responses, a hands-on training course was designed to cover the basics of vascular and soft-tissue access, catheters, wires, embolics, and closure devices. The training was provided in a one-to-one setting by a single IR attending over a period of 45 minutes and was concluded with hands-on training on an ultrasound (US) vascular access phantom whenever possible. An anonymous postcourse survey was then distributed and the results were analyzed. Results The average reported comfort level with basic IR concepts prior to course attendance was 1.7 on a 5-point scale (1 = not comfortable, 5 = very comfortable). This increased to an average of 4 following the course. Ninety-three percent of residents reported they have more confidence getting into the IR suite and assisting in IR procedures following the course. Residents who had an opportunity to train on the US vascular access phantom gave an average response of 4.6 out of 5 to a question of how helpful the experience was in improving their US hand skills (1 = not helpful, 5 = extremely helpful). One hundred percent of responders reported that the course successfully met its goal. Finally, the overall responses were unanimously in favor of continuing the hands-on training course. Conclusion A personalized, cost-effective, hands-on training course can improve the IR training experience of radiology residents, especially in the early training phase. This model is of particular value for smaller to medium-sized academic institutions with limited financial and educational resources.

A Delayed Revenge: “Yellow Journalism” and the Long Quest for Cuba, 1851–1898

AbstractHistorians have long been intrigued by the role that the press played in McKinley’s decision to intervene in Cuba in 1898. Most, however, have focused their attention on the decade of the 1890s, ignoring the long history of interventionism aimed at Cuba. This essay uses the story of William L. Crittenden to explore the many instances where interventionists tried (and failed) to drum up support for Cuban intervention. Crittenden was executed by the Spanish in 1851 after a failed filibuster raid. Over the next four decades, interventionists wrote newspaper accounts, held boisterous public meetings, penned poems, and published novels that demanded revenge upon Spain. Yet Millard Fillmore, Franklin Pierce, James Buchanan, Ulysses Grant, and Grover Cleveland did not choose to intervene. By focusing on nearly five decades as opposed to a single year, this essay calls into question the idea that the press reflected public opinion and challenges the larger assertion that the “Yellow Press” propelled the United States into a war with Spain. Whether they shouted “Remember the Maine,” “Remember the Virginius,” or “Remember Crittenden,” writers, editors, poets, and journalists simply did not have the power to control public opinion and certainly did not prove to be successful at manipulating presidents to intervene.

A critical analysis on the use of different weather datasets to assess moisture-related risks in building components for a Mediterranean location

In the field of numerical hygrothermal simulations, the literature suggests that multiyear weather datasets should be used to predict long-term moisture-related risks in building components. However, to improve the computational time-efficiency of hygrothermal analyses, single year simulations are preferable, although their reliability might be questionable. This study investigates different commonly used methodologies to define single year datasets for hygrothermal simulations, in order to identify advantages and limitations in terms of time-efficiency, data availability, and reliability of the results. To this aim, an initial literature analysis has reviewed many previous studies to identify the most used types of weather dataset, namely Multiyear (MY), Moisture Reference Years (MRY), and Typical Years (TY). Then, numerical simulations of different wall assemblies located in a Mediterranean city show the effect of the above datasets in the evaluation of mold growth risk and increased heat losses due to moisture accumulation, without disregarding the importance of computational time. The paper demonstrates that, in a warm European climate, an MRY does not necessarily ensure more conservative results than a TY, compared with MY-based simulations. Non-negligible discrepancies in the assessment of the mold growth risk emerge in case of interior wall insulation, while walls with exterior insulation are far less affected by the choice of the weather dataset. Moreover, a TY allows estimating the increased heat losses with an error less than 0.5%. One further result is that an MRY does not ensure low time effort compared to MY datasets, due to the pre-processing required to collect and elaborate the weather data for a long-term period.

Testing the integration of a teacher coaching model and a social-emotional learning and literacy intervention in urban elementary schools

Teachers often report inadequate training in and insufficient time for social-emotional learning (SEL; Buchanan et al., 2009). Thus, it is not surprising that tremendous variability exists in the implementation of school-based SEL interventions (Durlak, 2016; Rohrbach et al., 2006), which has been closely linked to program outcomes for teachers and students (Domitrovich & Greenberg, 2000). In this study, we used a quasi-experimental design to better understand the utility of providing structured, evidence-based teacher coaching to support SEL program implementation. We paired an integrated SEL and literacy curriculum, 4Rs (Reading, Writing, Respect, & Resolution), with a validated approach to supporting curriculum implementation, MTP (MyTeachingPartner). Across 91 classrooms within 15 urban public elementary schools, we assessed one central research question: does the integration of 4Rs with an evidence-based coaching model, MTP, lead to greater classroom-level effects on students’ social-emotional and academic functioning than 4Rs only during a single school year? In summary, 4Rs + MTP classrooms showed significantly lower levels of hostile attribution bias and aggressive interpersonal negotiation strategies, as well as, greater attendance rates and teacher-reported academic skills.

Comparing different models to forecast the number of mass shootings in the United States: An application of forecasting rare event time series data.

The number of mass shootings in the United States has increased in the recent decades. Understanding the future risk of the mass shootings is critical for designing strategies to mitigate the risk of mass shootings, and part of understanding the future risk is to forecast the frequency or number of mass shootings in the future. Despite the increasing trend in mass shootings, they thankfully remain rare events with fewer than 10 mass shootings occurring in a single year. Limited historical data with substantial annual variability poses challenges to accurately forecasting rare events such as the number of mass shootings in the United States. Different forecasting models can be deployed to tackle this challenge. This article compares three forecasting models, a change-point model, a time series model, and a hybrid of a time series model with an artificial neural network model. Each model is applied to forecast the frequency of mass shootings. Comparing among results from these models reveals advantages and disadvantages of each model when forecasting rare events such as mass shootings. The hybrid ARIMA-ANN model can be tuned to follow variation in the data, but the pattern of the variation may not continue into the future. The mean of the change-point model and the ARIMA model exhibit much more less annual variation and are not influenced as much by the inclusion of a single data point. The insights generated from the comparison are beneficial for selecting the best model and accurately estimating the risk of mass shootings in the United States.

Relationship between nonrestorative sleep and heartburn among a Japanese occupational population.

Nonrestorative sleep (NRS) is a symptom of insomnia and is clearly more associated with objective indices than other insomnia symptoms. Gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) and insomnia are known to be strongly related. However, the link between NRS and heartburn, a main symptom of GERD, is poorly understood. Therefore, the relationships between them were investigated in addition to sleep duration. The results of a single year's medical examinations were investigated for 29,475 Japanese active office workers who were 20 to 59years old. NRS and heartburn were investigated in a medical interview using a personal computer. The relationships between NRS and heartburn in addition to sleep duration were also analyzed. The subjects were 46.6 ± 8.7years old (mean ± SD) and 27% and 13% of them had NRS and heartburn, respectively. The presence of NRS together with a sleep duration of ≤ 5, 6, 7 or ≥ 8hours was an independent comorbid factor for heartburn compared with the absence of NRS together with a sleep duration of seven hours (reference; odds ratio [OR], 2.38; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.11-2.69, OR, 2.44; 95% CI, 2.16-2.76, OR, 2.33; 95% CI, 1.94-2.79; and OR, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.14-2.52). The absence of NRS together with a sleep duration of ≤ 5hours was also an independent comorbid factor for heartburn compared with the reference (OR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.05-1.37). NRS in active workers may contribute to heartburn comorbidity despite the sleep duration as in other workers without NRS.

Measuring bereavement prevalence in a complex sampling survey: the 2019 Georgia Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS)

BackgroundThe Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) is an annual survey designed to identify trends in the public’s health. In its 2019 field survey, the U.S. state of GA tested a new 3 – item module to measure the numbers of bereaved, resident adults aged 18 years and older. Participants were eligible if they answered ‘Yes’ to the item ‘Have you experienced the death of a family member or close friend in the years 2018 or 2019?’. This analysis explores two research questions. Can estimates for bereavement prevalence be derived without large sampling errors, low precision, and small subsamples? Can multiple imputation techniques be applied to overcome non-response and missing data to support multivariate modeling?MethodsBRFSS is a non-institutionalized sample of adults aged 18 years and older living in the U.S. state of Georgia. Analyses in this study were conducted under two scenarios. Scenario 1 applies the complex sample weights created by the Centers for Disease Control and imputes values for missing responses. Scenario 2 treats the data as a panel – no weighting combined with removal of persons with missing data. Scenario 1 reflects the use of BRFSS data for public health and policy, while Scenario 2 reflects data as it is commonly used in social science research studies.ResultsThe bereavement screening item has a response rate (RR) of 69.1% (5206 of 7534 persons). Demographic subgroups and categories of health have RR of 55% or more. Under Scenario 1, the estimated prevalence of bereavement is 45.38%, meaning that 3,739,120 adults reported bereaved in 2018 or 2019. The estimated prevalence is 46.02% with Scenario 2 which removes persons with any missing data (4,289 persons). Scenario 2 overestimates the bereavement prevalence by 1.39%. An illustrative logistic model is presented to show the performance of exposure to bereavement under the two data scenarios.ConclusionsRecent bereavement can be ascertained in a surveillance survey accounting for biases in response. Estimating bereavement prevalence is needed for measuring population health. This survey is limited to one US state in a single year and excludes persons aged 17 years and younger.

Ecological restoration in the age of apocalypse.

Billions of dollars are spent annually on ecological restoration efforts around the world and yet successful attainment of restoration targets still falls short in many regions. Globally, ecosystem restoration is becoming increasingly challenged with changes in climate. Years with extreme climatic events that limit plant establishment, such as severe drought, heatwaves, and floods are projected to increase in frequency. A critical evaluation of current ecological restoration practices and changes to those practices are needed to attain global restoration targets. For plant restoration, many efforts globally focus on planting in a single year following disturbance. The odds of restoration efforts being conducted in a year that is inconducive to plant establishment may be calculated using climatic risk data. We propose a risk-mitigation approach to restoration wherein plantings are conducted across multiple years for projects in a bet-hedging strategy and evaluated through an adaptive management approach.

Powered mobility device use in residential aged care: a retrospective audit of incidents and injuries

BackgroundPowered wheelchairs and motorised mobility scooters, collectively called powered mobility devices (PMD), are highly valued by older Australians, including those living in residential care, to facilitate personal and community mobility. The number of PMDs in residential aged care is expected to grow proportionally with that of the wider community, however, there is very little literature on supporting residents to use PMDs safely. Prior to developing such supports, it is important to understand the frequency and nature of any incidents experienced by residents whilst using a PMD. The aim of this study was to determine the number and characteristics of PMD use related incidents occurring in a group of residential aged care facilities in a single year in one state in Australia including incident type, severity, assessment, or training received and outcomes on follow-up for PMD users living in residential aged care.MethodsAnalysis of secondary data, including documentation of PMD incidents and injuries for one aged care provider group over 12 months retrospectively. Follow-up data were gathered 9–12 months post incident to review and record the outcome for each PMD user.ResultsNo fatalities were recorded as a direct result of PMD use and 55 incidents, including collisions, tips, and falls, were attributed to 30 residents. Examination of demographics and incident characteristics found that 67% of residents who had incurred incidents were male, 67% were over 80 years of age, 97% had multiple diagnoses and 53% had not received training to use a PMD. Results from this study were extrapolated to project that 4,453 PMD use related incidents occur every year within Australian residential aged care facilities, with the potential for outcomes such as extended recovery, fatality, litigation, or loss of income.ConclusionThis is the first time that detailed incident data on PMD use in residential aged care has been reviewed in an Australian context. Illuminating both the benefits and the potential risks of PMD use emphasizes the need to develop and improve support structures to promote safe PMD use in residential aged care.

Characteristics of rapid cycling in 1261 bipolar disorder patients

BackgroundRapid-cycling (RC; ≥ 4 episodes/year) in bipolar disorder (BD) has been recognized since the 1970s and associated with inferior treatment response. However, associations of single years of RC with overall cycling rate, long-term morbidity, and diagnostic subtypes are not clear.ResultsWe compared descriptive and clinical characteristics in 1261 BD patients with/without RC, based on history and prospective follow-up for several years. RC in any previous year was identified in 9.36% of BD subjects (3.74% in BD1, 15.2% BD2), and somewhat more among women than men. RC-BD subjects had 3.21-fold greater average prospective annual rates of recurrence but not hospitalizations, had less difference in %-time-ill, received more mood-stabilizing treatments, and had greater suicidal risk, lacked familial psychiatric illnesses, had more cyclothymic temperament, were more likely to be married, had more siblings and children, experienced early sexual abuse, but were less likely to abuse drugs (not alcohol) or smoke. In multivariable regression modeling, older age, mood-switching with antidepressants, and BD2 > BD1 diagnosis, as well as more episodes/year were independently associated with RC. Notably, prospective mean recurrence rates were below 4/year in 79.5% of previously RC patients, and below 2/year in 48.1%.ConclusionsLifetime risk of RC in BD was 9.36%, more likely in women, with older age, and in BD2 > BD1. With RC, recurrence rates were much higher, especially for depression with less effect on %-time ill, suggesting shorter episodes. Variable associations with unfavorable outcomes and prospective recurrence rates well below 4/year in most previously RC patients indicate that RC was not a sustained characteristic and probably was associated with use of antidepressants.

Applying machine learning to improve the near-real-time products of the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder

Abstract. A new algorithm to derive near-real-time (NRT) data products for the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) is presented. The old approach was based on a simplified optimal estimation retrieval algorithm (OE-NRT) to reduce computational demands and latency. This paper describes the setup, training, and evaluation of a redesigned approach based on artificial neural networks (ANN-NRT), which is trained on >17 years of MLS radiance observations and composition profile retrievals. Comparisons of joint histograms and performance metrics derived between the two NRT results and the operational MLS products demonstrate a noticeable statistical improvement from ANN-NRT. This new approach results in higher correlation coefficients, in addition to lower root-mean-square deviations and biases at almost all retrieval levels compared to OE-NRT. The exceptions are pressure levels with concentrations close to 0 ppbv (parts per billion by volume), where the ANN models fail to establish a functional relationship and tend to predict 0. Depending on the application, this behavior might be advantageous. While the developed models can take advantage of the extended MLS data record, this study demonstrates that training ANN-NRT on just a single year of MLS observations is sufficient to improve upon OE-NRT. This confirms the potential of applying machine learning to the NRT efforts of other current and future mission concepts.

Assessment of Research Mentorship During Medical School for Future Radiation Oncology Trainees

Assessment of Research Mentorship During Medical School for Future Radiation Oncology Trainees

The inclusion of health-related quality of life and other patient-reported outcomes in landmark trials for Food and Drug Administration oncology drug approvals: An analysis of cancer drug approvals between 2006 and 2022.

1569 Background: How patients feel and function are essential elements of the clinical benefit of interventions which is often not captured by traditional measures of clinical benefit such as progression-free survival and overall survival. Health-related quality of life, functional status, symptom burden, and other patient-reported outcomes (PROs) assess the impact of interventions from the patient’s point of view. The aim of this study is to assess the inclusion of PROs in landmark trials leading to FDA oncology drug approvals. Methods: This is a retrospective cross-sectional study of pivotal trials leading to FDA oncology approvals between January 2006 and December 2022 based on the FDA oncology approval notifications. The trial protocols of all pivotal trials were evaluated for inclusion of health-related quality of life or other PROs as an outcome measure. The approved therapies were classified into first-line, adjuvant/maintenance, and second or later line of treatment. Chi-square tests were used to assess the relationship between the line of treatment and the inclusion of PROs in the trial protocol. Results: There were 420 oncology approvals during the study period with the highest number of approvals in a single year in 2020 (56) and the least in 2007 (7). Lung cancer has the highest number of approvals (61, 14.5%) followed by lymphoma (50, 12%), leukemia (49, 11.7%), genitourinary malignancies (48, 11.4%), breast cancer (36, 8.6%), gastrointestinal malignancies (32, 7.6%), plasma cell disorders (30, 7.1%) melanoma (20, 4.8%), gynecological malignancies (20, 4.8%), hepatobiliary malignancies (14, 3.3%) and head/neck cancers (14, 3.3%). The approved therapies were first line (146, 34.8%), second or higher line (226, 53.8%), and adjuvant/maintenance therapies (48, 11.4%). PROs were included in 40.7% of the pivotal trials. There is a rising trend in the inclusion of PROs from 5.5% of pivotal trials in 2006 to 31% in 2022. Trials on first-line therapies are more likely to include PROs compared to second or higher-line therapies (44.5% vs 36.7%; p = 0.13). Conclusions: Although there is a rising trend in the inclusion of health-related quality of life and other PROs in pivotal trials for FDA oncology drug approvals, most pivotal trials did not include PROs as outcome measures.[Table: see text]

Mapping Eucalyptus plantation in Guangxi, China by using knowledge-based algorithms and PALSAR-2, Sentinel-2, and Landsat images in 2020

Eucalyptus plantations promote the economic development of forestry in southern China, but many studies have reported their negative environmental impacts, such as high water resource usage of certain species of Eucalyptus plants and losses in biodiversity. To date, annual maps of Eucalyptus plantations at large scales with high spatial resolutions are not yet available. Here, we investigated the spectral properties of Eucalyptus plantations and developed a knowledge-based Eucalyptus plantation mapping algorithm. We produced annual maps of Eucalyptus plantation at 10-m spatial resolution in the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region (Guangxi), China, using our proposed algorithm and images of ALOS PALSAR-2, Sentinel-2, and Landsat (ETM+/OLI) in a single year. First, we generated annual evergreen forest maps using PALSAR-2 and Landsat/Sentinel-2-based vegetation index time series data. Second, we distinguished Eucalyptus plantations from the evergreen forest layer using the unique biophysical features of Eucalyptus plantations, the Sentinel-2 red edge bands, and Landsat/Sentinel-2-based enhanced vegetation index (EVI). Our resultant 2020 Eucalyptus plantation map had high producer's, user's, and overall accuracies of 0.85, 0.89, and 0.96, respectively. There were 3.10 × 106 ha of Eucalyptus plantation in Guangxi in 2020. Among the 14 administrative units, Wuzhou City had the largest Eucalyptus plantation area in Guangxi, followed by Nanning, Baise, and Chongzuo cities. We demonstrated the potential of knowledge-based mapping approaches for identifying evergreen forest and Eucalyptus plantations in complex and fragmented landscapes where cloud cover is frequent. Our 10-m Eucalyptus plantation map is the most current dataset available and can be used to assist the sustainable production of Eucalyptus, ecological assessments, and conservation.

The Life History and Ecology of the Lesser Wasp Moth, Pseudocharis minima, (Lepidoptera, Erebidae, Euchromiina) in the Pine Rocklands of South Florida

The Arctiinae species Pseudocharis minima (Lesser Wasp Moth) is considered imperiled according to Florida Natural Areas Inventory but little had been published on its life history. We describe the life history of the Lesser Wasp Moth descriptively and quantitatively while providing images of eggs, larval instars, pupae, and adults. We describe a variance in the number of larval instars from 6 to 8. We also report the first field observations of Lesser Wasp Moths utilizing Crossopetalum rhcoma (Maidenberry) for egg laying and larval consumption. The mean life-cycle duration is ∼61 days and can provide about 6 generations in a single year. We anticipate that our research will aid in the management of native pine rockland habitats for the Lesser Wasp Moth as well as laying the groundwork for conservation efforts in the event of possible further population declines.

Deceased Donor Kidney Nonuse: A Systematic Approach to Improvement.

We analyzed donor characteristics for unutilized kidneys in our large organ procurement organization (OPO) service area in a single year to determine the reasonableness of their nonuse and to identify how we might increase the transplant rate of these kidneys. Five experienced local transplant physicians independently reviewed unutilized kidneys to identify which kidneys they would consider transplanting in the future. Biopsy results, donor age, kidney donor profile index, positive serologies, diabetes, and hypertension were risk factors for nonuse. Two-thirds of nonused kidneys had biopsies with high degree of glomerulosclerosis and interstitial fibrosis. Reviewers identified 33 kidneys as potentially transplantable (12%). Reducing the rate of unutilized kidneys in this OPO service area will be achieved by setting acceptable expanded donor characteristics, identifying suitable well-informed recipients, defining acceptable outcomes, and systematically evaluating the results of these transplants. Because the improvement opportunity will vary by region, to achieve a significant impact on improving the national nonuse rate, it would be useful for all OPOs, in collaboration with their transplant centers, to conduct a similar analysis.

El canal de renta real y las depreciaciones contractivas en un modelo de agentes heterogéneos para América Latina

Rationale In Latin America, it is not unusual to see exchange rate depreciations in excess of 20% in a single year. Although depreciation tends to stimulate a country’s net external demand, it does not always lead to increased output. It is worth understanding which channels may explain this outcome. Takeaways •In conventional macroeconomic theory, exchange rate depreciations have expansionary effects on economic activity. However, the empirical evidence shows that, in the case of emerging market economies, devaluing the exchange rate may cause output to contract. •One channel that explains this evidence, known as the real income channel, operates through the erosion of purchasing power as a result of rising prices for imported goods, which can lead to a fall in the real consumption of households with limited access to financial markets. •This article discusses a heterogeneous agent model calibrated for the main Latin American economies that allows the importance of this channel to be measured. The results show that this channel may have a sizable macroeconomic impact, particularly on economies more open to international trade.

Pro: Integrated Five-Year Anesthesiology Residency Should Be Implemented Widely

Pro: Integrated Five-Year Anesthesiology Residency Should Be Implemented Widely