Single Year Of Age Research Articles

Comparing pregnancy and pregnancy outcome rates between adolescents with and without pre-existing mental disorders.

There are limited population-based data on the role of mental disorders in adolescent pregnancy, despite the presence of mental disorders that may affect adolescents' desires and decisions to become pregnant. This study aimed to examine the relationship between specific types of mental disorders and pregnancy rates and outcome types among adolescents aged 13-19 years, using single-year age groups. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using data from the Merative™ MarketScan Research Databases. The study population consisted of females aged 13-19 years with continuous insurance enrollment for three consecutive calendar years between 2005 and 2015. Pregnancy incidence rates were calculated both overall and within the different categories of mental disorders. The presence of mental disorders, identified through diagnosis codes, was classified into 15 categories. Pregnancy and pregnancy outcome types were determined using diagnosis and procedure codes indicating the pregnancy status or outcome. To address potential over- or underestimations of mental disorder-specific pregnancy rates resulting from variations in age distribution across different mental disorder types, we applied age standardization using 2010 U.S. Census data. Finally, multivariable logistic regression models were used to examine the relationships between 15 specific types of mental disorders and pregnancy incidence rates, stratified by age. The age-standardized pregnancy rate among adolescents diagnosed with at least one mental disorder was 15.4 per 1,000 person-years, compared to 8.5 per 1,000 person-years among adolescents without a mental disorder diagnosis. Compared to pregnant adolescents without a mental disorder diagnosis, those with a mental disorder diagnosis had a slightly but significantly higher abortion rate (26.7% vs 23.8%, P-value < 0.001). Multivariable logistic regression models showed that substance use-related disorders had the highest odds ratios (ORs) for pregnancy incidence, ranging from 2.4 [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.1-2.7] to 4.5 [95% CI:2.1-9.5] across different age groups. Overall, bipolar disorders (OR range: 1.6 [95% CI:1.4-1.9]- 1.8 [95% CI: 1.7-2.0]), depressive disorders (OR range: 1.4 [95% CI: 1.3-1.5]- 2.7 [95% CI: 2.3-3.1]), alcohol-related disorders (OR range: 1.2 [95% CI: 1.1-1.4]- 14.5 [95% CI: 1.2-178.6]), and attention-deficit/conduct/disruptive behavior disorders (OR range: 1.1 [95% CI: 1.0-1.1]- 1.8 [95% CI: 1.1-3.0]) were also significantly associated with adolescent pregnancy, compared to adolescents without diagnosed mental disorders of the same age. This study emphasizes the elevated rates of pregnancy and pregnancy ending in abortion among adolescents diagnosed with mental disorders, and identifies the particular mental disorders associated with higher pregnancy rates.

COVID-19-Related Age Profiles for SARS-CoV-2 Variants in England and Wales and States of the USA (2020 to 2022): Impact on All-Cause Mortality.

Since 2020, COVID-19 has caused serious mortality around the world. Given the ambiguity in establishing COVID-19 as the direct cause of death, we first investigate the effects of age and sex on all-cause mortality during 2020 and 2021 in England and Wales. Since infectious agents have their own unique age profile for death, we use a 9-year time series and several different methods to adjust single-year-of-age deaths in England and Wales during 2019 (the pre-COVID-19 base year) to a pathogen-neutral single-year-of-age baseline. This adjusted base year is then used to confirm the widely reported higher deaths in males for most ages above 43 in both 2020 and 2021. During 2020 (+COVID-19 but no vaccination), both male and female population-adjusted deaths significantly increased above age 35. A significant reduction in all-cause mortality among both males and females aged 75+ could be demonstrated in 2021 during the widespread COVID-19 vaccination period; however, deaths below age 75 progressively increased. This finding arises from a mix of vaccination coverage and year-of-age profiles of deaths for the different SARS-CoV-2 variants. In addition, specific effects of age around puberty were demonstrated, where females had higher deaths than males. There is evidence that year-of-birth cohorts may also be involved, indicating that immune priming to specific pathogen outbreaks in the past may have led to lower deaths for some birth cohorts. To specifically identify the age profile for the COVID-19 variants from 2020 to 2023, we employ the proportion of total deaths at each age that are potentially due to or 'with' COVID-19. The original Wuhan strain and the Alpha variant show somewhat limited divergence in the age profile, with the Alpha variant shifting to a moderately higher proportion of deaths below age 84. The Delta variant specifically targeted individuals below age 65. The Omicron variants showed a significantly lower proportion of overall mortality, with a markedly higher relative proportion of deaths above age 65, steeply increasing with age to a maximum around 100 years of age. A similar age profile for the variants can be seen in the age-banded deaths in US states, although they are slightly obscured by using age bands rather than single years of age. However, the US data shows that higher male deaths are greatly dependent on age and the COVID variant. Deaths assessed to be 'due to' COVID-19 (as opposed to 'involving' COVID-19) in England and Wales were especially overestimated in 2021 relative to the change in all-cause mortality. This arose as a by-product of an increase in COVID-19 testing capacity in late 2020. Potential structure-function mechanisms for the age-specificity of SARS-CoV-2 variants are discussed, along with potential roles for small noncoding RNAs (miRNAs). Using data from England, it is possible to show that the unvaccinated do indeed have a unique age profile for death from each variant and that vaccination alters the shape of the age profile in a manner dependent on age, sex, and the variant. The question is posed as to whether vaccines based on different variants carry a specific age profile.

Prevalence and the age of onset patterns of stroke in Jiangsu Province, China.

Little was known regarding the current age of onset patterns of stroke. This study aimed to examine the prevalence of stroke and explore the age of onset patterns of stroke in Jiangsu Province, China. Participants were recruited from April 2012 to April 2013 in Jiangsu Province, China. Survival analysis models were used to evaluate the hazards of stroke by a single year of age. Kaplan-Meier analysis and the log-rank test were used to explore the disparities of the age of onset patterns of stroke. This population-based study was conducted among 39,887 participants aged ≥ 18years in Jiangsu Province, China. Of the 740 (1.9%) events of stroke, 13.2% suffered from hemorrhagic stroke (HS) and 86.8% suffered from ischemic stroke (IS). The prevalence of HS and IS were 0.3% and 1.7%, respectively. The estimated mean age of onset of stroke was 71.98 (95% CI: 71.97-71.99) years by the survival model. Up to age of 45years, the estimated hazards of stroke onset were at a relatively low level. From the age of 45years, the increases in hazards accelerated and peaked at age 75years. Urban, smoking, and drinking males had a higher risk of stroke than their counterparts (P < 0.05). However, no such difference was found among females. The findings emphasize the importance of implementing stroke prevention interventions in Jiangsu Province, China, especially for urban, smoking, and drinking males. It is of great significance to strengthen comprehensive management of health-related behaviors, including smoking cessation and moderate consumption of alcohol to have sustained beneficial effects on stroke risk. Chenlu He and Qian Chen contributed equally to this work.

Does the morphology of cutaneous melanoma help to explain the international differences in survival? Results from 1 578 482 adults diagnosed during 2000–2014 in 59 countries (CONCORD-3)

BackgroundCONCORD‐3 highlighted wide disparities in population‐based 5‐year net survival for cutaneous melanoma during 2000–2014. Clinical evidence suggests marked international differences in the proportion of lethal acral and nodular subtypes of cutaneous melanoma.ObjectivesWe aimed to assess whether the differences in morphology may explain global variation in survival.MethodsPatients with melanoma were grouped into the following seven morphological categories: malignant melanoma, not otherwise specified (International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, third revision morphology code 8720), superficial spreading melanoma (8743), lentigo maligna melanoma (8742), nodular melanoma (8721), acral lentiginous melanoma (8744), desmoplastic melanoma (8745) and other morphologies (8722–8723, 8726–8727, 8730, 8740–8741, 8746, 8761, 8770–8774, 8780). We estimated net survival using the nonparametric Pohar Perme estimator, correcting for background mortality by single year of age, sex and calendar year in each country or region. All‐ages survival estimates were standardized using the International Cancer Survival Standard weights. We fitted a flexible parametric model to estimate the effect of morphology on the hazard of death.ResultsWorldwide, the proportion of nodular melanoma ranged between 7% and 13%. Acral lentiginous melanoma accounted for less than 2% of all registrations but was more common in Asia (6%) and Central and South America (7%). Overall, 36% of tumours were classified as superficial spreading melanoma. During 2010–2014, age‐standardized 5‐year net survival for superficial spreading melanoma was 95% or higher in Oceania, North America and most European countries, but was only 71% in Taiwan. Survival for acral lentiginous melanoma ranged between 66% and 95%. Nodular melanoma had the poorest prognosis in all countries. The multivariable analysis of data from registries with complete information on stage and morphology found that sex, age and stage at diagnosis only partially explain the higher risk of death for nodular and acral lentiginous subtypes.ConclusionsThis study provides the broadest picture of distribution and population‐based survival trends for the main morphological subtypes of cutaneous melanoma in 59 countries. The poorer prognosis for nodular and acral lentiginous melanomas, more frequent in Asia and Latin America, suggests the need for health policies aimed at specific populations to improve awareness, early diagnosis and access to treatment. What is already known about this topic? The histopathological features of cutaneous melanoma vary markedly worldwide.The proportion of melanomas with the more aggressive acral lentiginous or nodular histological subtypes is higher in populations with predominantly dark skin than in populations with predominantly fair skin. What does this study add? We aimed to assess the extent to which these differences in morphology may explain international variation in survival when all histological subtypes are combined.This study provides, for the first time, international comparisons of population‐based survival at 5 years for the main histological subtypes of melanoma for over 1.5 million adults diagnosed during 2000–2014.This study highlights the less favourable distribution of histological subtypes in Asia and Central and South America, and the poorer prognosis for nodular and acral lentiginous melanomas.We found that later stage at diagnosis does not fully explain the higher excess risk of death for nodular and acral lentiginous melanoma compared with superficial spreading melanoma.

1143-P: Lifetime Risk, Life Expectancy, and Years of Life Lost to Type 2 Diabetes in a Global Modelling Study of Six Countries

Lifetime risk, life expectancy and years of life lost provide a meaningful perspective on the burden of type 2 diabetes to guide public health interventions. We estimated these metrics using population datasets from six high income countries, for two time-points five years apart per country in the period 2009-2019. We included 96,718,000 person-years and 448,1incident diabetes cases in life-table models. Each life-table simulated progression of a cohort of 20-year-olds free of diabetes, followed until death or age 100. Poisson regression was used to estimate incidence and mortality rates for each single year of age in males and females. Using microsimulation, 95% uncertainty intervals around lifetime risk, life expectancy and years of life lost were produced. Lifetime risk of diabetes decreased for both sexes in all countries (Table) , most notably in Israeli females from 58.1% (57.0 - 59.1) in 2010-to 45.9% (44.7 - 47.1) in 2015-16. Life expectancy for people with diabetes increased for both sexes in all countries, generally in line with the increase seen in those without diabetes. Years of life lost to diabetes at age 20 varied from 2.4 (1.4 - 3.4) in Latvian males in 2015-16 to 8.6 (8.3 - 8.9) in Israeli males in 2015-16. These findings show declining lifetime risk of type 2 diabetes in many countries, however, years of life lost to the disease remains substantial for the average person with diabetes. Disclosure D.Tomic: None. S.Pildava: None. J.E.Shaw: Advisory Panel; Abbott Diagnostics, AstraZeneca, Eli Lilly and Company, Pfizer Inc., Roche Diagnostics, Research Support; AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim International GmbH, Speaker's Bureau; AstraZeneca, Eli Lilly and Company, Novo Nordisk, Sanofi. D.J.Magliano: None. L.Chen: None. J.I.Morton: None. E.W.Gregg: None. M.E.Pavkov: None. M.Arffman: None. Y.J.Cheng: None. K.Ha: None. D.Kim: None.

Enhancing Cancer Control Through a Population-Based Cancer Registry in Cali, Colombia: Results From 20-Year Cancer Survival Trends

PURPOSE Population-based survival is a strategic measure of the health system efficiency when managing cancer in a country. By analyzing data from a city in a middle-income country, we aimed to generate further hypotheses about cancer survival that may have a national impact on cancer control. METHODS Cancer cases were collected using the Population-Based Cancer Registry from Cali, Colombia, from 1998 to 2017. We examined the survival of nine cancers or groups of malignancies in patients aged 15-99 years old. The 5-year net survival (NS) was estimated using the Pohar-Perme method. Survival analyses were calculated using the life table method for each calendar year, single year of age, and sex. We used the cohort approach for patients diagnosed in 1998-2012 and the period approach during 2013-2017. RESULTS A total of 59,911 patients were available for analysis. The cancer types included n = 7,460 (12.5%) stomach, n = 6,760 (11.3%) colorectal, n = 6,760 (11.3%) lung, n = 5,164 (8.6%) breast, n = 11,755 (19.6%) cervix, n = 11,284 (18.8%) prostate, n = 4,054 (6.8%) thyroid, n = 2,076 (3.5%) myeloid neoplasia, and n = 6,735 (11.2%) lymphoma. For men, prostate cancer had the highest NS (79.9%-90.1%), whereas thyroid cancer (87.1%-95.7%) in women. Lung and stomach cancer had the lowest survival rate (&lt; 25%) in both sexes. Myeloid neoplasia had the largest variation in survival (15.9%-52.7% for men; 12.5%-49.8% for women), followed by lymphoma (27.6%-55.4% for men; 37.3%-53.4% for women) and colorectal cancer (38.5%-54% for men; 37.1%-55.7% for women). Patients with cervix cancer experienced no change in survival (54.4%-53%) and breast cancer increased approximately 10% (70.8%-81.1%) but remained stable during the last decade. CONCLUSION Our results in survival trends provide insights into the main types of cancer and their burden to the health system. These data contribute to evidence for national cancer prevention policies and the monitoring of the Cancer Control Plan launched by the Colombian government.

Worldwide trends in population-based survival for children, adolescents, and young adults diagnosed with leukaemia, by subtype, during 2000–14 (CONCORD-3): analysis of individual data from 258 cancer registries in 61 countries

Leukaemias comprise a heterogenous group of haematological malignancies. In CONCORD-3, we analysed data for children (aged 0-14 years) and adults (aged 15-99 years) diagnosed with a haematological malignancy during 2000-14 in 61 countries. Here, we aimed to examine worldwide trends in survival from leukaemia, by age and morphology, in young patients (aged 0-24 years). We analysed data from 258 population-based cancer registries in 61 countries participating in CONCORD-3 that submitted data on patients diagnosed with leukaemia. We grouped patients by age as children (0-14 years), adolescents (15-19 years), and young adults (20-24 years). We categorised leukaemia subtypes according to the International Classification of Childhood Cancer (ICCC-3), updated with International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, third edition (ICD-O-3) codes. We estimated 5-year net survival by age and morphology, with 95% CIs, using the non-parametric Pohar-Perme estimator. To control for background mortality, we used life tables by country or region, single year of age, single calendar year and sex, and, where possible, by race or ethnicity. All-age survival estimates were standardised to the marginal distribution of young people with leukaemia included in the analysis. 164 563 young people were included in this analysis: 121 328 (73·7%) children, 22 963 (14·0%) adolescents, and 20 272 (12·3%) young adults. In 2010-14, the most common subtypes were lymphoid leukaemia (28 205 [68·2%] patients) and acute myeloid leukaemia (7863 [19·0%] patients). Age-standardised 5-year net survival in children, adolescents, and young adults for all leukaemias combined during 2010-14 varied widely, ranging from 46% in Mexico to more than 85% in Canada, Cyprus, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, and Australia. Individuals with lymphoid leukaemia had better age-standardised survival (from 43% in Ecuador to ≥80% in parts of Europe, North America, Oceania, and Asia) than those with acute myeloid leukaemia (from 32% in Peru to ≥70% in most high-income countries in Europe, North America, and Oceania). Throughout 2000-14, survival from all leukaemias combined remained consistently higher for children than adolescents and young adults, and minimal improvement was seen for adolescents and young adults in most countries. This study offers the first worldwide picture of population-based survival from leukaemia in children, adolescents, and young adults. Adolescents and young adults diagnosed with leukaemia continue to have lower survival than children. Trends in survival from leukaemia for adolescents and young adults are important indicators of the quality of cancer management in this age group. Children with Cancer UK, the Institut National du Cancer, La Ligue Contre le Cancer, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Swiss Re, Swiss Cancer Research foundation, Swiss Cancer League, Rossy Family Foundation, US National Cancer Institute, and the American Cancer Society.

Racial and ethnic disparities in pediatric cancer incidence among children and young adults in the United States by single year of age.

Incidence rates of pediatric cancers in the United States are typically reported in 5-year age groups, obscuring variation by single year of age. Additionally, racial and ethnic variation in incidence is typically presented in broad categories rather than by narrow age ranges. The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) 18 data (2000-2017) were examined to calculate frequencies and age-adjusted incidence rates among individuals aged birth to 39 years. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were estimated as the measure of association for rate comparisons by race and Hispanic origin overall and by single year of age. Several histologic types showed substantial variation in race/ethnicity-specific and overall rates by single year of age. Overall, Black children and young adults experienced substantially decreased incidence of acute lymphoid leukemia (IRR, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.49-0.55) compared to Whites, and this decreased incidence was strongest at ages 1 through 7 years and 16 through 20 years. Hispanic individuals experienced decreased overall incidence of Hodgkin lymphoma (IRR, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.48-0.52) and astrocytoma (IRR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.52-0.56) and increased risk of acute lymphoblastic leukemia (IRR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.42-1.51) compared to non-Hispanic Whites, and the increased risk was strongest at ages 10 through 23 years. Substantial decreased risk across many tumor types was also observed for Asian/Pacific Islanders and American Indian/Alaska Natives. Examination of incidence rates for pediatric cancers by narrow age groups may provide insights regarding etiological differences in subgroups. Additionally, variation in age-specific incidence rates by race and ethnicity may enable hypothesis generation on drivers of disparities observed.

Prevalence of sufficient MVPA among Thai adults: pooled panel data analysis from Thailand\u2019s surveillance on physical activity 2012\u20132019

BackgroundThe role of data in informing decision makers in formulating policy to improve population health is undeniably important. During the past few years, the Thai government has undertaken continuous health promotion campaigns and programs. Nevertheless, evidence of how physical activity (PA) has improved is lacking. This study aims to present PA prevalence and trends from nationally-representative surveillance data collected during 2012–2019.MethodsThis study employed 8 rounds of Thailand’s Surveillance on Physical Activity (SPA) survey from 2012 to 2019 as a pooled analysis from two-panel data (SPA2012–2016 and SPA2017–2019). Multistage random sampling was applied to select Thai adults aged 18 or over to produce a nationally-representative dataset, by considering the place of residence (urban or rural), gender, and single year of age. Face-to-face interviews using a structured questionnaire were conducted in 5 regions, 13 provinces, and 36 villages to follow up 5648 individuals in Panel 1 (SPA2012–2016) and 6074 persons in Panel 2 (SPA2017–2019).ResultsThe prevalence (%) of Thai adults who met WHO recommendations on sufficient PA tended to increase over time, from 66.6 (CI 65–68) in SPA2012 to 70.1 (CI 69–71), 69.5 (CI 68–71), 73.1 (CI 72–74), 70.6 (CI 69–72), 73.0 (CI 72–74), 75.6 (CI 74–77), and 74.3 (73–75) in SPA2013–2019, respectively. Thai females are less physically active than males, and the prevalence of sufficient moderate and vigorous PA (MVPA) was highest among middle-aged adults (35–64 years), and lowest among older adults (65+ years). Work-related PA dominated the cumulative minutes of MVPA per week, followed by recreational PA.ConclusionThe prevalence of sufficient MVPA has fluctuated over time with a tendency to increase in the most recent years. Work-related is the most common modes of PA among Thai adults, implying further improvement in recreational physical activity is required. Workplace intervention should also be the focus in improving PA of Thai adults by encouraging their work force to engage in more occupational PA.

Geographic variations in dental sealant utilization by Medicaid enrollees.

To investigate geographical variations and their relationship to race/ethnicity in dental sealant utilization for first molars among Wisconsin Medicaid enrollees from 2010 to 2013. Wisconsin Medicaid dental claims for sealants in children aged 6-16 years were analyzed. County-level population density, urban influence code, presence of dental health professional shortage areas, and population-per-dentist ratio were considered as geographic predictors. Descriptive statistics and mixed effects Poisson regression models were used to examine the effect of county level covariates on the number of dental sealants received per person-year (PY) of eligibility adjusting for patient-level characteristics. Over-dispersion was modeled by a random residual effect, and all models adjusted for single-year age and gender interaction and race/ethnicity main effect. Medicaid claims for sealants on first permanent molars for 2010-2013 totaled 288,019 over 1,130,000 PY. The age- and gender-standardized rate of first molar sealant applications per 100 PY were 27.9, 25.7, and 16.6 for White, Hispanic, and Black children, respectively. County-specific rates ranged from a low of 8.9 per 100 PY to a high of 62.6 per 100 PY. In the multivariate analysis after adjusting for geography, compared to Whites, Hispanics had highest rates (rate ratio (RR)=1.33, 95% CI=1.30-1.37) of dental sealant utilization followed by Blacks (RR=1.25, 95% CI=1.21-1.29). Population density was the only significant geographic predictor (RR=0.56 per 10-fold increase, 95% CI=0.45-0.69). Substantial geographic variability in the utilization of sealants for first molars was identified. Lower population density was the main geographical predictor of high sealant utilization.

Preventing Breast, Cervical, and Colorectal Cancer Deaths: Assessing the Impact of Increased Screening.

IntroductionThe US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommends select preventive clinical services, including cancer screening. However, screening for cancers remains underutilized in the United States. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention leads initiatives to increase breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. We assessed the number of avoidable deaths from increased screening, according to USPSTF recommendations, for CRC and female breast and cervical cancers.MethodsWe used model-based estimates of avoidable deaths for the lifetime of single-year age cohorts under the current and increased use of screening scenarios (data year 2016; analysis, 2018). We calculated prevented cancer deaths for each 1% increase in screening uptake and extrapolated to current level of screening (2016), current level plus 10 percentage points, and increasing screening to 90% and 100% of the eligible population.ResultsIncreased use of screening from current levels to 100% would prevent an additional 2,821 deaths from breast cancer, 6,834 deaths from cervical cancer, and 35,530 deaths from CRC over a lifetime of the respective single-year cohort. Increasing use of CRC screening would prevent approximately 8.5 times as many deaths as the equivalent increase in use of breast cancer screening (women only), although twice as many people (men and women) would have to be screened for CRC.ConclusionsA large number of deaths could be avoided by increasing breast, cervical, and CRC screening. Public health programs incorporating strategies shown to be effective can help increase screening rates.

Towards the elimination of FGM by 2030: A statistical assessment.

In 2015, UN member states committed to eliminate female genital mutilation (FGM) by 2030 as part of the Sustainable Development Agenda. To reach this goal, interventions need to be targeted and guided by the best available evidence. To date, however, estimates of the number of girls and women affected by FGM and their trends over time and geographic space have been limited by the availability, specificity and quality of population-level data. We present new estimates based on all publicly available nationally representative surveys collected since the 1990s that contain both information on FGM status and on the age at which FGM occurred. Using survival analysis, we generate estimates of FGM risk by single year of age for all countries with available data, and for rural and urban areas separately. The likelihood of experiencing FGM has decreased at the global level, but progress has been starkly uneven between countries. The available data indicate no progress in reducing FGM risk in Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Mali and Guinea. In addition, rural and urban areas have diverged over the last two decades, with FGM declining more rapidly in urban areas. We describe limitations in the availability and quality of data on FGM occurrence and age-at-FGM. Based on current trends, the SDG goal of eliminating FGM by 2030 is out of reach, and the pace at which the practice is being abandoned would need to accelerate to eliminate FGM by 2030. The heterogeneity in trends between countries and rural vs urban areas offers an opportunity to contrast countries where FGM is in rapid decline and explore potential policy lessons and programmatic implications for countries where the practice of FGM appears to remain entrenched.

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

SummaryBackgroundAccurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019.Methods8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric.FindingsThe global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66–2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17–2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5–137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0–146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2–144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4–27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8–67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8–74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5–51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7–59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1–10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3–6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0–6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5–8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1–60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8–66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019.InterpretationOver the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Trends in short-term survival from distant-stage cutaneous melanoma in the United States, 2001-2013 (CONCORD-3).

BackgroundSurvival from metastatic cutaneous melanoma is substantially lower than for localized disease. Treatments for metastatic melanoma have been limited, but remarkable clinical improvements have been reported in clinical trials in the last decade. We described the characteristics of US patients diagnosed with cutaneous melanoma during 2001-2013 and assessed trends in short-term survival for distant-stage disease.MethodsTrends in 1-year net survival were estimated using the Pohar Perme estimator, controlling for background mortality with life tables of all-cause mortality rates by county of residence, single year of age, sex, and race for each year 2001-2013. We fitted a flexible parametric survival model on the log-hazard scale to estimate the effect of race on the hazard of death because of melanoma and estimated 1-year net survival by race.ResultsOnly 4.4% of the 425 915 melanomas were diagnosed at a distant stage, cases diagnosed at a distant stage are more commonly men, older patients, and African Americans. Age-standardized, 1-year net survival for distant-stage disease was stable at approximately 43% during 2001-2010. From 2010 onward, survival improved rapidly, reaching 58.9% (95% confidence interval = 56.6% to 61.2%) for patients diagnosed in 2013. Younger patients experienced the largest improvement. Survival for distant-stage disease increased in both Blacks and Whites but was consistently lower in Blacks.ConclusionsOne-year survival for distant-stage melanoma improved during 2001-2013, particularly in younger patients and those diagnosed since 2010. This improvement may be a consequence of the introduction of immune-checkpoint-inhibitors and other targeted treatments for metastatic and unresectable disease. Persistent survival inequalities exist between Blacks and Whites, suggesting differential access to treatment.

The rapid growth of Australia’s advanced age population

Australia’s population at the highest ages is growing rapidly, driving increasing demand for a whole range of services often required at advanced ages. Unfortunately, official population statistics tend to become less accurate as age increases, especially in the centenarian ages. The aims of the paper are to (i) describe the growth of Australia’s population at the highest ages using methods which that provide greater accuracy and more detail than is available from official statistical sources; (ii) understand the demographic drivers of population growth at these ages; and (iii) urge caution with the use of official population data at the highest ages, and warn of some of the implications of doing so. State-of-the-art extinct generation and survivor ratio methods were employed to prepare robust estimates of Australia’s population by sex and single years of age for each year of the period 1971 to 2018. Results show that Australia’s population at the highest ages is growing very quickly. Over the 20 years to 2018 nonagenarians (those aged 90–99) grew in number from 63,000 to 181,000 (an increase of 185%), but centenarians (aged 100+) increased at an even faster rate, growing by 215% (from about 1300 to 4200). Official population estimates can be relied upon up to about age 85, but at higher ages the quality of single year of age population numbers may be poor. We encourage the ABS to adopt the methods described in this paper to produce official population estimates at the highest ages.

Non-esterified fatty acids and telomere length in older adults: The Cardiovascular Health Study

BackgroundTelomeres shorten as organisms age, placing limits on cell proliferation and serving as a marker of biological aging. Non-esterified fatty acids (NEFAs) are a key mediator of age-related metabolic abnormalities. We aimed to determine if NEFAs are associated with telomere length in community-living older adults. Material and methodsWe cross-sectionally studied 1648 participants of the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) who underwent concomitant telomere length measurement from a sample of 4715 participants who underwent measurement of circulating total fasting NEFAs in stored specimens from their 1992-3 clinic visit. We used linear regression and inverse probability weighting to model telomere length as a function of NEFAs with adjustment for age, gender, race, clinic, BMI, marital status, smoking status, alcohol intake, diabetes status, years of education, hypertension status, prevalent cardiovascular disease, C-reactive protein, total adiponectin, albumin, fetuin-A, fasting insulin, eGFR, total cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, triglycerides, and general health status. ResultsHigher NEFAs were significantly associated with shorter telomere length, after adjusting for age, gender, race, and clinic site (β = −0.034; SE = 0.015; P = 0.02). Estimates remained similar in fully adjusted models where each SD of NEFA increment was associated with 0.042 kilobase (kb) pairs shorter telomere length (standard error = 0.016; P = 0.007); for comparison the coefficient for a single year of age in the same model was −0.017. These results were similar in strata of sex, and waist circumference although they tended to be strongest among participants in the youngest tertile of age (β = -0.079; SE = 0.029; P = 0.01). ConclusionsIn this population-based cohort of community-living elders, we observed a significant inverse association between NEFAs and telomere length. If confirmed, NEFAs may represent a promising target for interventions to slow biological aging.

Exploring indigenous ethnic inequities in first episode psychosis in New Zealand – A national cohort study

IntroductionFirst episode psychosis (FEP) disproportionately affects rangatahi (young) Māori, the Indigenous people of New Zealand, but little is known about factors contributing to this inequity. This study describes a cohort of rangatahi Māori and young non-Māori with FEP, and explores ethnic differences in incidence rates, and the contribution of deprivation, urbanicity and substance use. MethodsMāori and young non-Māori, aged 13–25 at the time of the first recorded psychosis-related diagnoses, were identified from within Statistics NZ's Integrated Data Infrastructure (IDI), between 2009 and 2012. To estimate age-standardised FEP incidence rates, the population-at-risk was estimated using IDI-based usual resident population estimates for 2009–2012, stratified by ethnicity and single year of age. Poisson regression models were used to estimate ethnic differences in FEP incidence adjusted for age, gender, deprivation, and urban-rural area classification. ResultsA total of 2412 young people with FEP (40% Māori, 60% non-Māori) were identified. Māori were younger, and more likely to live in deprived and rural communities and be diagnosed with schizophrenia. Substance induced psychosis was uncommon. The unadjusted age-standardised FEP incidence rate ratio was 2.48 (95% CI: 2.29–2.69) for rangatahi Māori compared with young non-Māori. While adjusting for age, sex, deprivation and urban rural area classification reduced ethnic differences in incidence, rangatahi Māori were still more than twice as likely to have been diagnosed with FEP compared to young non-Māori. ConclusionsThis study confirms previous findings of elevated rates of psychosis among rangatahi Māori. The difference in rates between Māori and non-Māori were attenuated but remained after adjustment for deprivation and urbanicity.

Endemic Burkitt lymphoma: a complication of asymptomatic malaria in sub-Saharan Africa based on published literature and primary data from Uganda, Tanzania, and Kenya

BackgroundEndemic Burkitt lymphoma (eBL) is an aggressive B cell non-Hodgkin lymphoma associated with antigenic stimulation from Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Whether eBL risk is related to malaria parasite density is unknown. To address this issue, children with eBL, asymptomatic and clinical malaria, as a surrogate of malaria parasite density, were assessed.MethodsMalaria-related laboratory results (parasite density, haemoglobin, platelet count, and white cell count [WBC]) count) were compiled for 4019 eBL cases and 80,532 subjects evaluated for asymptomatic malaria or clinical malaria (severe malaria anaemia, hyperparasitaemia, cerebral malaria, malaria prostration, moderate malaria, and mild malaria) in 21 representative studies published in Africa (mostly East Africa) and 850 eBL cases and 2878 controls with primary data from the Epidemiology of Burkitt Lymphoma in East African Children and Minors (EMBLEM) case–control study in Uganda, Tanzania, and Kenya. The average values of malaria-related laboratory results were computed by condition and trends across single-year age groups were assessed using regression and spline models.ResultsOverall, malaria infection or malaria was diagnosed in 37,089 of children compiled from the literature. Children with eBL and asymptomatic parasitaemia/antigenaemia, but not those with clinical malaria, were closest in their mean age (age 7.1–7.2 vs. 7.4–9.8 years), haemoglobin level (10.0–10.4 vs. 11.7–12.3 g/dL), malaria parasite density (2800 vs. 1827–7780 parasites/µL), platelet count (347,000–353,000 vs. 244,000–306,000 platelets/µL), and WBC count (8180–8890 vs. 7100–7410 cells/µL). Parasite density in these two groups peaked between four to five years, then decreased steadily thereafter; conversely, haemoglobin showed a corresponding increase with age. Children with clinical malaria were markedly different: all had an average age below 5 years, had dramatically elevated parasite density (13,905–869,000 parasites/µL) and dramatically decreased platelet count (< 159,000 platelets/µL) and haemoglobin (< 7 g/dL).ConclusionseBL and asymptomatic parasitaemia/antigenaemia, but not clinical malaria, were the most similar conditions with respect to mean age and malaria-related laboratory results. These results suggest that children with asymptomatic parasitaemia/antigenaemia may be the population at risk of eBL.

The pandemic of 1918 and the heart disease epidemic in middle-aged men and women in the United States

ABSTRACT Members of birth cohorts who were alive in 1918 and survived the influenza pandemic were likely to have been “primed” for heart disease in later life. We examine the hypothesis that the twentieth-century heart disease epidemic was a cohort effect reflecting the changing susceptibility composition of the population. We estimated heart disease death rates by single years of age for cohorts born in 1860–1949. We prepared age-specific rates for calendar years 1900–2016, as well as age-standardized cohort and calendar year rates. Males born in 1880–1919 contributed 90 per cent to 100 per cent of all heart disease deaths among males aged 40–64 from 1940 to 1959, when the heart disease epidemic was at its peak. There was no heart disease epidemic among females aged 40–64. Death from heart disease in females tends to occur at older ages. Cigarette smoking, unemployment, and other factors may have played a role in the heart disease epidemic in men and would have interacted with injury from influenza, but our results suggest that having been alive at the time of the 1918 influenza pandemic probably played an important role.

Does minimum follow-up time post-diagnosis matter? An assessment of changing loss of life expectancy for people with cancer in Western Australia from 1982 to 2016

BackgroundCancer survival has improved in Western Australia (WA) over recent decades. Loss of life expectancy (LOLE) is a useful measure for assessing cancer survival at a population-level. Some previous studies estimating LOLE have required a minimum follow-up beyond diagnosis to reduce the impact of modelled extrapolation, while others have not. The first aim of this study was to assess the impact of minimum length of follow-up on LOLE estimates for people diagnosed in 2006 with female breast, colorectal, prostate, lung, cervical, combined oesophageal and stomach cancers, and melanoma. Based on these results, the second aim was to assess temporal changes in LOLE for these cancer types for diagnoses between 1982 and 2016. MethodsPerson-level linked cancer registry and mortality data were used for invasive primary cancer diagnoses for WA residents aged 15–89 years. The analysis for aim one included cases diagnosed from 1982 to the end of 2006, followed to the end of 2006 (i.e. no minimum follow-up), 2011 (i.e. five years minimum follow-up, assuming survival) or 2016 (i.e. 10 years minimum follow-up). To achieve the second study aim, the diagnostic period was extended to the end of 2016. Life expectancy estimates were obtained after fitting flexible parametric relative survival models. Single-year age and sex-specific death rates were used as a reference to estimate LOLE and proportionate loss of life expectancy. ResultsTemporal changes were not reported for prostate, cervical, oesophageal and stomach cancers or melanoma, due to differences in LOLE estimates by minimum follow-up time, or estimate imprecision. Marked reductions in LOLE were observed for female breast and colorectal cancer. There was minimal absolute reduction for lung cancer, where LOLE remained high. ConclusionThis study considered the appropriateness of including recent cancer diagnoses when assessing temporal changes in LOLE, finding variation in estimates with differing minimum follow-up or high parameter uncertainty for most included cancer types. Temporal changes in LOLE in-turn reflected changes in the life expectancy of the general population, cancer detection and management. These factors must be considered when estimating and interpreting LOLE estimates.