Abstract Background Long-standing inflammation has been implicated in the development of colonic dysplasia in ulcerative colitis (UC). However, the relationship between varying degrees of inflammatory exposure and dysplasia risk remains poorly understood. We aimed to identify risk factors for colonic dysplasia in UC patients, with particular focus on quantifying long-term inflammatory exposure. Methods In this retrospective single-center case-control study, we reviewed 55 UC patients diagnosed with colonic dysplasia (low-grade, high-grade, or cancer) between 2013 and 2022, and 110 randomly selected UC patients without dysplasia as controls. Endoscopic inflammation was scored using the Mayo endoscopic subscore (0-3), and cumulative inflammatory exposure was calculated by multiplying these scores with the duration of each endoscopic follow-up period. Clinical factors and endoscopic findings were compared between groups, and logistic regression analysis was performed to identify independent predictors of dysplasia. Results Univariate analysis showed that the dysplasia group had significantly higher frequencies of anemia (hemoglobin <10 g/dL), elevated ESR (>18 mm/hr at diagnosis), steroid and biologics use, tubular or shortened colon, and high cumulative endoscopic inflammation scores (>10). In multivariate analysis, after adjusting for age, gender, and disease duration, both tubular or shortened colon (OR 3.172, 95% CI: 1.029-9.780) and high cumulative endoscopic inflammation score(>10) (OR 4.205, 95% CI: 1.065-16.600) were independently associated with increased dysplasia risk. Conclusion High cumulative inflammatory burden, as indicated by elevated endoscopic inflammation scores and structural bowel changes, significantly increases the risk of colonic dysplasia in UC patients. More intensive surveillance strategies may be warranted for patients with these objective risk indicators to enable early detection of colitis-associated dysplasia.
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