A patient's subjective response to topical nasal decongestant is often used to screen for turbinate reduction surgery suitability. However, this anecdotal strategy has not been objectively and quantitatively evaluated. Prospective, longitudinal, and single-blinded cohort study employing computational fluid dynamic modeling based on computed tomography scans at baseline, 30min postoxymetazoline, and 2 months postsurgery on 11 patients with chronic turbinate hypertrophy. Nasal obstruction symptom evaluation (NOSE) and visual analogue scale (VAS) obstruction scores significantly improved from baseline to postoxymetazoline and again to postsurgery (NOSE: 71.82±14.19 to 42.27±25.26 to 22.27±21.04; VAS: 6.09±2.41 to 4.14±2.20 to 2.08±1.56; each interaction p<0.05), with significant correlation between the latter two states (r∼0.37-0.69, p<0.05). Oxymetazoline had a broader anatomical impact throughout inferior and middle turbinates than surgery (many p<0.05); however, the improvement in regional airflow is similar (most p>0.05) and predominantly surrounding the inferior turbinate. Strong postoxymetazoline to postsurgery correlations were observed in decreased nasal resistance (r=0.79, p<0.05), increased regional airflow rates (r=-0.47 to -0.55, p<0.05) and regional air/mucosa shear force and heat flux (r=0.43 to 0.58, p<0.05); however, only increasing peak heat flux significantly correlated to symptom score improvement (NOSE: r=0.48, p<0.05). We present the first objective evidence that the "topical decongestant test" can help predict turbinate reduction surgery outcomes. The predictive effect is driven by similar improvementin regional airflow that leading to improved air/mucosa stimulations (peak heat flux) rather than through reduced nasal resistance.