Simulated Gross Primary Production Research Articles

An improved canopy interception scheme into biogeochemical model for precise simulation of carbon and water fluxes in subtropical coniferous forest

The process-based Biome-BGC (Biome Biogeochemical Cycles) model is widely used to simulate the fluxes of carbon and water of terrestrial ecosystems. While exhibiting excellent performance in simulating carbon cycle processes, this model provides a relatively simple simulation of the water cycle processes, particularly in canopy interception, which may result in significant errors in evapotranspiration (ET) and soil moisture estimations. This study initially refined the temporal scale of the original Biome-BGC model from a daily scale to an hourly scale, and then incorporated a theoretical interception module into the hourly-scale model for correcting canopy interception algorithm, to enhance the accuracy of hydrological processes simulations. The modified model was tested using the half-hourly observed meteorological and eddy covariance flux data at the Qianyanzhou subtropical coniferous forest site. In comparison with the original daily-scale model, simulations from the hourly-scale model showed better agreement with measurements at Qianyanzhou forest site, with 30.61 % and 40.92 % lower annual average gross primary productivity (GPP) and ET simulations. Although the accuracy of GPP and ET simulations did not show a significant improvement after canopy interception correction, it notably enhanced the accuracy of canopy interception and soil moisture simulations. The canopy interception rates were 55.8 % and 44.1 % for the original daily-scale and hourly-scale model, obviously overstimated compared with canopy correction simulation (31.1 %), leading to a significant underestimation of runoff. The canopy interception and runoff simulations after interception correction were proven relatively more reasonable. Additionally, the coefficient of determination (R2) for measured vs simulated soil water content (SWC) were 0.38, 0.51 and 0.60 for the original daily-scale, hourly-scale, and canopy interception correction simulations respectively, with a notable improvement in accuracy. This study suggested that improvements in temporal scale and canopy interception for process-based biogeochemical model can provide a better understanding of the carbon and water exchanges in response to instantaneous meteorological conditions and support improved water resource management.

Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration and vegetation structural changes contributed to gross primary productivity increase more than climate and forest cover changes in subtropical forests of China

Abstract. The subtropical forests of China play a pivotal role in the global carbon cycle and in regulating the global climate. Quantifying the individual and combined effects of forest cover change (FCC), vegetation structural change (e.g. leaf area index (LAI)), CO2 fertilisation, and climate change (CC) on the annual gross primary productivity (GPP) dynamics of different subtropical forest types are essential for mitigating carbon emissions and predicting future climate changes, but these impacts remain unclear. In this study, we used a processed-based model to comprehensively investigate the impacts of these factors on GPP variations with a series of model experiments in China's subtropical forests from 2001 to 2018. Simulated GPP showed a significant increasing trend (20.67 gCm-2yr-1, p<0.001) under the interaction effects of FCC, LAI change, rising CO2, and CC. The CO2 fertilisation (6.84 gCm-2yr-1, p<0.001) and LAI change (3.79 gCm-2yr-1, p=0.004) were the two dominant drivers of total subtropical forest GPP increase, followed by the effects of FCC (0.52 gCm-2yr-1, p<0.001) and CC (0.92 gCm-2yr-1, p=0.080). We observed different responses to drivers depending on forest types. The evergreen broad-leaved forests showed the maximum carbon sequestration rate due to the positive effects of all drivers. Both the FCC (0.19 gCm-2yr-1, p<0.05) and CC (1.22 gCm-2yr-1, p<0.05) significantly decreased evergreen needle-leaved forest GPP, while their negative effects were almost offset by the positive impact of LAI changes. Our results indicated that LAI outweighed FCC in promoting GPP, which is an essential driver that needs to be accounted for in studies and ecological and management programmes. Overall, our study offers a novel perspective on different drivers of subtropical forest GPP changes and provides valuable information for policy makers to better manage subtropical forests to mitigate climate change risks.

Optimizing seasonally variable photosynthetic parameters based on joint carbon and water flux constraints

Terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) often adopt the Farquhar biochemical model coupled with the Ball-Berry stomatal conductance (gs) model to simulate ecosystem carbon and water fluxes. The parameters m, representing the sensitivity of gs to the photosynthetic rate, and Vcmax25, representing the leaf photosynthetic capacity, are two pivotal parameters but the two main sources of uncertainties in TBM simulations. The temporal variations of m in TBMs are still elusive, due to the lack of direct observations. It also remains unclear how accurate estimates of m and Vcmax25 can improve the simulations of carbon and water fluxes. In this study, we used a Bayesian parameter optimization approach to estimate seasonally varying m and Vcmax25 from eddy covariance observations in a mixed forest stand at the Borden Forest Research Station located in southern Ontario, Canada and used in-situ observations of m and Vcmax25 for validation. Three strategies were tested for optimizing m and Vcmax25, including the carbon, water, and carbon-water coupling scenarios. m and Vcmax25 optimized from carbon-water coupling constraints shows best correlations with the measured m (R2 = 0.70) and Vcmax25 (R2 = 0.70). By incorporating optimized m and Vcmax25with seasonal variations, we found considerable improvements in the estimated gross primary productivity (GPP) and evapotranspiration (ET) compared with constant m and Vcmax25, with R2 increasing from 0.78 to 0.85 for GPP, from 0.65 to 0.71 for ET and RMSE reducing from 2.579 g C m−2d−1 to 2.038 g C m−2d−1 for GPP, from 1.151 mm d−1 to 0.137 mm d−1 for ET. This study proposes an effective approach to retrieve m and Vcmax25 for TBMs and demonstrates the efficacy of incorporating seasonally variable m and Vcmax25 for reducing the uncertainties in GPP and ET simulations, which supports accurate quantifications of land-atmosphere exchanges.

Modelling changes in vegetation productivity and carbon balance under future climate scenarios in southeastern Australia

Australia, characterized by extensive and heterogeneous terrestrial ecosystems, plays a critical role in the global carbon cycle and in efforts to mitigate climate change. Prior research has quantified vegetation productivity and carbon balance within the Australian context over preceding decades. Nonetheless, the responses of vegetation and carbon dynamics to the evolving phenomena of climate change and escalating concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide remain ambiguous within the Australian landscape. Here, we used LPJ-GUESS model to assess the impacts of climate change on Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) and Net Biome Productivity (NBP) of carbon for the state of New South Wales (NSW) in southeastern Australia. LPJ-GUESS simulations were driven by an ensemble of 27 global climate models under different emission scenarios. We investigated the change of GPP for different vegetation types and whether NSW ecosystems will be a net sink or source of carbon under climate change. We found that LPJ-GUESS successfully simulated GPP for the period 2003–2021, demonstrating a comparative performance with GPP derived from upscaled eddy covariance fluxes (R2 = 0.58, nRMSE = 14.2 %). The simulated NBP showed a larger interannual variation compared with flux data and other inversion products but could capture the timing of rainfall-driven carbon sink and source variations in 2015–2020. GPP would increase by 10.3–19.5 % under a medium emission scenario and 19.7–46.8 % under a high emission scenario. The mean probability of NSW acting as a carbon sink in the future showed a small decrease with a large uncertainty with >8 of the 27 climate models indicating an increased potential for carbon sink. These findings emphasize the significance of emission scenarios in shaping future carbon dynamics but also highlight considerable uncertainties stemming from different climate projections. Our study represents a baseline for understanding natural ecosystem dynamics and their key role in governing land carbon uptake and storage in Australia.

Simulation of gross primary productivity and impact of drought in Liulin watershed of Taihang mountains over 2000–2020

As the largest flux in the global terrestrial carbon cycle, Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) is a key factor for the terrestrial carbon budget. Based on the eddy flux tower data, remote sensing data and the meteorological precipitation data, we calibrated three parameters of maximum light use efficiency, optimum temperature, and maximum temperature in the Vegetation Photosynthesis Model (VPM) to reproduce the GPP spatiotemporal characteristic in Liulin watershed of Taihang Mountains. We further analyzed the time lag effect and cumulative effect of the standard precipitation index (SPI) on GPP by the Pearson correlation coefficients. Results show that VPM captures the GPP characteristics of eddy flux tower observation in Liulin watershed. During the calibration period (R2 = 0.94, RMSE = 0.47 g C m-2·d-1) and validation period (R2 = 0.91, RMSE = 0.60 g C m-2 d-1), the adjusted VPM model successfully reproduced the temporal dynamics of site-observed GPP. From 2000 to 2020, VPM model can effectively reproduce the long-term variations in GPP (R2 = 0.69 vs. NIRv_GPP), with the GPP ranging from 446.4 to 828.1 g C m-2 y-1 and an average value of 545.6 g C m-2 y-1 in Liulin watershed. The GPP exhibited an increasing trend from 2000 to 2020. A mutation in the GPP occurred in 2010, with an average annual increase of 13.9 g C m-2 y-1 from 2000 to 2010 (p < 0.05), followed by an average annual increase of 10.22 g C m-2 y-1 from 2011 to 2020 (p > 0.05). The SPI effectively monitored drought events in the Liulin watershed. With a cumulative effect of 9 months and a lag effect of 6–7 months, the time lag and cumulative effects of drought had a long-term effect on GPP. It is imperative to have long-term eddy flux tower data and meteorological data to better evaluate the spatiotemporal dynamics of GPP and the impact of drought.

Joint improvement on absorbed photosynthetically active radiation and intrinsic quantum yield efficiency algorithms in the P model betters the estimate of terrestrial gross primary productivity

Terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP) plays a crucial role in global carbon cycle and budget. A range of light use efficiency (LUE) models have been developed to estimate GPP at different spatial scales. However, large uncertainties still remain in GPP output from such models, mainly owing to the difficulty in the proper determination of maximum light use efficiency (LUEmax). The recently developed P model directly quantifies actual LUE based on environmental and physiological factors, reducing the uncertainty in GPP estimation caused by the ambiguous LUEmax. However, the existing P models still suffer from a potential underestimation in global validation, which might be related to the calculation of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (APAR) and intrinsic quantum yield efficiency (φ0) in the P model. In this study, we improved the P model by differentiating sunlit and shaded leaves for APAR calculation and by considering the spatial variability of the optimal temperature for φ0 (Topt_phi0). The roles of modified APAR and φ0 calculations in reducing the uncertainty of simulated GPP were assessed through model simulation experiments with monthly tower-based GPP from 120 flux sites globally distributed as the benchmark. The validation indicates that simultaneous improvements on APAR and φ0 algorithms are able to better the performance of the P model. Monthly GPP simulated with this improved P model (i.e., IP model) is in good agreement with tower-based values, with a linear R2, root mean squared error, mean error, mean absolute error, and DISO of 0.76, 1.88 g C m−2d−1, -0.14 g C m−2d−1, 1.77 g C m−2d−1 and 0.60. The total global terrestrial GPP output from the IP model (IPGPP) averaged 134.3 Pg C yr−1 during 1981—2021, in the upper range of existing GPP products.

A new global time-series GPP production: DFRF-GPP

Understanding the global ecosystem carbon cycle requires a quantitative estimation of terrestrial gross primary production (GPP). Although most existing GPP estimates can accurately reflect the spatial distribution, interannual trends and even seasonal cycles of GPP under average conditions to some extent, the GPP estimates of different models under extreme climate conditions are still unsatisfactory. In this study, based on the random forest algorithm, we integrated the multimodel GPP simulation results published by the Multiscale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project, the FLUXNET flux-site-observed GPP, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the standardized temperature index (STI) to generate a set of global GPP time-series data products from 2001 to 2010. The new GPP product was named DFRF-GPP, referring to the GPP generated by data fusion based on random forest. The quality of DFRF-GPP was evaluated by comparison with current commonly used GPP datasets and GPP observations at FLUXNET flux sites. The results showed that DFRF-GPP is in great agreement with other GPP products and can reproduce the spatial and temporal patterns and interannual trends of global GPP, with optimal performance in regions such as those north of 30° in the Northern Hemisphere where there are more FLUXNET flux sites. DFRF-GPP has higher accuracy and excellent performance on drought and high-temperature samples, with higher sensitivity to drought and high temperature. This study not only provides a set of time-series products of global gross primary production but also provides a convenient and practical solution for enhancing the applicability of GPP estimation products in large-scale extreme climate studies.

Integrating leaf functional traits improves modelled estimates of carbon and water fluxes at a subtropical evergreen conifer forest

Simulations of gross primary productivity (GPP) and evapotranspiration (ET) by terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) are subject to significant uncertainty, in part due to the spatiotemporal variability in leaf photosynthetic capacity, which is not well represented in models. Recent studies have shown the potential for using leaf chlorophyll content (Chlleaf) to constrain GPP and ET modeling in deciduous vegetation with a strong seasonal phenology. However, little is known about how integrating physiological trait information affects modelled GPP and ET in evergreen plants. In this study, we investigated the feasibility of incorporating Chlleaf and leaf age into a TBM, as a proxy for leaf maximum carboxylation rate at 25 °C (Vcmax25) for improving GPP and ET simulations. Measurements of Chlleaf and Vcmax25 from different leaf age classes (current-year and 1-year-old) for Masson pine and Slash pine species, and leaf area index (LAI) were made in a subtropical Evergreen Needleleaf Forest (ENF) eddy covariance flux tower site. The parameterization of Vcmax25 using combined information on Chlleaf and leaf age considerably reduced the biases in simulated GPP and ET, relative to the cases of i) constant Vcmax25 and ii) Chlleaf based Vcmax25. The largest improvements in GPP and ET simulations were found in growing season (May to August), when monthly absolute errors (AEs) of modeled GPP were ∼40 % reduced, from 120.5 to 71.2 g C m−2 mon−1, with a 25 % decrease of monthly AEs of modeled ET from 52.3 to 39.1 mm mon−1. Chlleaf plays a different role in modelled photosynthesis and transpiration between sunlit and shaded leaves. The modeled water use efficiency (WUE) and light use efficiency (LUE) of the shaded leaves were both higher than those of sunlit leaves. This study presents the newly use of Chlleaf and leaf age as a proxy for improving Vcmax25 modeling at an ENF stand, which highlights the importance of using plant physiological traits and leaf age for improving ecosystem carbon-water coupling simulations.

Mango‐GPP: A Process‐Based Model for Simulating Gross Primary Productivity of Mangrove Ecosystems

AbstractMangrove ecosystems are becoming increasingly important in global climate mitigation. However, large gaps still exist in evaluating mangroves' gross primary productivity (GPP) due to reasons such as the specific influences, for example, temperature and salt stresses are poorly described in Earth System Models (ESMs). This study developed a process‐based biogeochemical model (Mango‐GPP) to improve the GPP simulation in natural and restored mangroves. The model integrates mangrove‐specific physiological processes, including the response to salt and temperature stresses, as well as the light‐use efficiency at different growing stages. Eddy covariance flux measurements at two natural sites and one restored site in China were used to calibrate and validate Mango‐GPP. The model was calibrated by inverse analysis approach based on two cases and independently validated against the other cases. The validation results showed that it was generally capable of simulating the seasonal and interannual GPP variations at different sites. The simulated daily and annual GPPs agreed well with the observations and yielded R2 of 0.67 and 0.96, with model efficiency of 0.64 and 0.93, respectively. In comparison, Mango‐GPP showed better performances than many current satellite‐based GPP products and ESMs. The model was more sensitive to solar radiation, carbon dioxide concentration, and leaf traits. Future improvements should focus on enhancing Mango‐GPP's descriptive power of key processes, and further simulating other carbon fluxes at regional scales. This work provides a model foundation for further simulating carbon exchanges between the atmosphere, mangrove, and ocean for studying the coastal wetland restoration on regional carbon neutrality.

Higher global gross primary productivity under future climate with more advanced representations of photosynthesis.

Gross primary productivity (GPP) is the key determinant of land carbon uptake, but its representation in terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) does not reflect our latest physiological understanding. We implemented three empirically well supported but often omitted mechanisms into the TBM CABLE-POP: photosynthetic temperature acclimation, explicit mesophyll conductance, and photosynthetic optimization through redistribution of leaf nitrogen. We used the RCP8.5 climate scenario to conduct factorial model simulations characterizing the individual and combined effects of the three mechanisms on projections of GPP. Simulated global GPP increased more strongly (up to 20% by 2070-2099) in more comprehensive representations of photosynthesis compared to the model lacking the three mechanisms. The experiments revealed non-additive interactions among the mechanisms as combined effects were stronger than the sum of the individual effects. The modeled responses are explained by changes in the photosynthetic sensitivity to temperature and CO2 caused by the added mechanisms. Our results suggest that current TBMs underestimate GPP responses to future CO2 and climate conditions.

Partitioning eddy covariance CO2 fluxes into ecosystem respiration and gross primary productivity through a new hybrid four sub-deep neural network

A data-driven model is commonly employed for partitioning eddy covariance (EC) CO2 fluxes (NEE) into ecosystem respiration (ER) and gross primary productivity (GPP) fluxes. However, current data-driven solely utilizing one sub-neural network to estimate above-ground respiration (ERa) and below-ground respiration (ERb), leading to substantial uncertainty. To address this issue, this research introduces a hybrid four-sub-deep neural network (HFSD) for partitioning NEE into GPP and ER. The HFSD employs dual sub-deep neural networks (DNNs) to independently estimate ERa and ERb. Additionally, the HFSD incorporates GPP and various environmental variables to predict vegetation transpiration (T). The GPP and ER partitioned by the HFSD model are constrained by EC-derived T and NEE. Comparison between the partitioned GPP and ER by the HFSD model and the nighttime (NT) and daytime (DT) temperature-driven methods is conducted across three EC towers. The results indicate that the dual sub-DNNs architecture enhances the accuracy of ER simulations, while integrating EC-derived T as a constraint improves the accuracy of GPP simulations. Furthermore, the HFSD model exhibits the capability to simulate GPP and ER under extreme scenarios and demonstrates strong generalization potential. Correlation analyses suggest that seasonal variations in GPP and ER are primarily influenced by solar radiation (Ra) and air temperature (Ta) during wet seasons, while GPP and ER are highly sensitive to soil moisture (SM) during dry seasons. This study advances the biophysical description of data-driven models for NEE partitioning and enhances the accuracy of GPP and ER estimates.

A water stress factor based on normalized difference water index substantially improved the accuracy of light use efficiency model for arid and semi-arid grasslands

High-accuracy simulation of gross primary productivity (GPP) is crucial for the monitoring and evaluation of the ecosystem services and the adaptive management of grassland. The light use efficiency (LUE) model is one of the most widely-used methods to simulate GPP, given its simple structure and low input requirements. Current LUE models are less applicable to grasslands than other vegetation types and have lower overall estimation accuracy in arid and semi-arid regions. A grassland-specific light use efficiency model (GRASS-LUE), which optimizes three important parameters (the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation FPAR, optimum temperature Topt and water stress factor f(W)), has been developed to improve the accuracy of GPP simulation for grasslands along aridity gradients. GPP simulated by the GRASS-LUE agreed well with the eddy covariance (EC) GPP estimates for grasslands along the aridity gradient at 8-day (coefficient of determination (R2) = 0.85, Bias = −0.67 gC m−2 day−1), monthly (R2 = 0.88, Bias = −22.33 gC m−2 month−1) and annual time scales (R2 = 0.95, Bias = −118.91 gC m−2 year−1). Compared with five state-of-the-art GPP products (PML, MOD17, rEC-LUE, VPM and BESS), GRASS-LUE had the best and most stable performance in reproducing EC GPP, especially for semi-arid grassland, with the highest global performance indicator (GPI) value. Sensitivity tests further revealed that: 1) modifying f(W) to be based on the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) substantially improved the model accuracy for arid and semi-arid grasslands and 2) using the minimum of temperature and water stress factors (i.e., min⁡(f(W),f(T))) to represent environmental stress in GRASS-LUE was better than that from the multiplication of temperature and water stress factors (i.e., f(W)×f(T)).

Impacts of the data quality of remote sensing vegetation index on gross primary productivity estimation

ABSTRACT As the most commonly used driven data for gross primary productivity (GPP) estimation, satellite remote sensing vegetation indexes (VI), such as the leaf area index (LAI), often seriously suffer from data quality problems induced by cloud contamination and noise. Although various filtering methods are applied to reconstruct the missing data and eliminate noises in the VI time series, the impacts of these data quality problems on GPP estimation are still not clear. In this study, the accuracy differences of the GPP estimations driven by different VI series are comprehensively analyzed based on two light use efficiency (LUE) models (the big-leaf MOD17 and the two-leaf RTL-LUE). Four VI filtering methods are applied for comparison, and GPP data across 169 eddy covariance (EC) sites are used for validation. The results demonstrate that all the filtering methods can improve the GPP simulation accuracy, and the SeasonL1 filtering method exhibits the best performance both for the MOD17 model (∆R2 = 0.06) and the RTL-LUE model (∆R2 = 0.07). The reconstruction of the key change points in the temporally continuous gaps may be the primary reason for the different performance of the four methods. Moreover, the effects of filtering processes on GPP estimation vary with latitudes and seasons due to the differences in the primary data quality. More significant improvements can be observed during the growing season and in the regions near the equator, where the data quality is relatively poor with lower primary GPP estimation accuracy. This study can guide the preprocessing of the VI data before GPP estimation.

Modeling China's terrestrial ecosystem gross primary productivity with BEPS model: Parameter sensitivity analysis and model calibration

Terrestrial ecosystems are the largest sink for carbon, and their ecosystem gross primary productivity (GPP) regulates variations in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations. Current process-based ecosystem models used for estimating GPP are subject to large uncertainties due to poorly constrained parameter values. In this study, we implemented a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) on parameters in the Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS) considering the parameters’ second-order impacts. We also applied the generalized likelihood estimation (GLUE) method, which is flexible for a multi-parameter calibration, to optimize the GPP simulation by BEPS for 10 sites covering 7 plant functional types (PFT) over China. Our optimized results significantly reduced the uncertainty of the simulated GPP over all the sites by 17 % to 82 % and showed that the GPP is sensitive to not only the photosynthesis-related parameters but also the parameters related to the soil water uptake as well as to the energy balance. The optimized GPP across South China showed that the mix forest, shrub, and grass have a higher GPP and are more controlled by the soil water availability. This study showed that the GLUE method together with the GSA scheme could constrain the ecosystem model well when simulating GPP across multiple ecosystems and provide a reasonable estimate of the spatial and temporal distribution of the ecosystem GPP over China. We call for more observations from more sites, as well as data on plant traits, to be collected in China in order to better constrain ecosystem carbon cycle modeling and understand its response to climate change.

Investigating Terrestrial Carbon Uptake Over India Using Multimodel Simulations of Gross Primary Productivity and Satellite‐Based Biophysical Product

AbstractTerrestrial ecosystems play a central role in the global carbon cycle and climate mitigation due to their offering of a large carbon sink. More than one‐fifth of the geographical area of India, one of the largest nations on the Earth, is forested, which is highly diverse in vegetation and climate types, offers huge potential for carbon sequestration, but remains vulnerable to climate change. Hence, it is imperative to know the future changes in the terrestrial carbon budget over this region. Gross primary productivity (GPP) represents the carbon uptake by terrestrial ecosystems. The multimodel ensembles of GPP simulated by the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) provide a useful means in this regard. In this work, we study the strength and variability of GPP over India in the near‐past and future using these simulations. In future, all the models show an increasing trend in GPP, however, with widely varying trends. The preferred month of carbon uptake differs among the models. A comparison with a satellite biophysical record shows the models underestimated the GPP during the near‐past over India. The carbon uptake in the Eastern Himalaya dominates the Western Himalaya and central Indian regions. Specifically, till 2100, the growth rate of GPP varies from 4.9 to 16.69 gC m−2 y−2, from 2.47 to 18.91 gC m−2 y−2, and from 0.32 to 21.95 gC m−2 y−2 over these three regions, respectively.

Regulation of biophysical drivers on carbon and water fluxes over a warm-temperate plantation in northern China

Plantations have great potential for carbon sequestration and play a vital role in the water cycle. However, it is challenging to accurately estimate the carbon and water fluxes of plantations, and the impact of biophysical drivers on the coupling of carbon and water fluxes is not well understood. Thus, we modified the phenology module of the Biome-BGC model and optimized the parameters with the aim of simulating the gross primary productivity (GPP), evapotranspiration (ET) and water use efficiency (WUE) of a warm-temperate plantation in northern China from 2009 to 2020. Photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) showed significant positive correlations on GPP and WUE during the first stage of the growing season (S1: from early April to late July). Active accumulated temperature (Taa) mainly controlled the changes in GPP and ET during the second stage (S2: between the end of July and early November). Throughout the growing season, soil water content dominated daily GPP and WUE, whereas Taa regulated ET. The optimized Biome-BGC model performed better than the original model in simulating GPP and ET. Compared with the values simulated by the original model, root mean square error decreased by 7.89 % and 15.97 % for the simulated GPP and ET, respectively, while the determination coefficient increased from 0.77 to 0.81 for simulated GPP and from 0.51 to 0.62 for simulated ET. The results of this study demonstrated that the optimized model more accurately assessed carbon sequestration and water consumption in plantations.

Improving Phenology Representation of Deciduous Forests in the Community Land Model: Evaluation and Modification Using Long‐Term Observations in China

AbstractPhenology is an important factor indicating environmental changes and regulates the variations of carbon, water, and energy exchange. However, phenology models exhibit large uncertainties due to limited understanding of its mechanisms. In this study, we modified deciduous phenology scheme based on the evaluation of different phenological models using long‐term observations at Chinese Ecosystem Research Network with CLM4.5. The alternating leaf unfolding model and summer‐influenced autumn leaf falling model that we proposed, performed best in simulating leaf‐unfolding and leaf‐falling. Compared with the observed and remote‐sensed phenology, the modified model could better simulate the phenological dates at the site and regional scale. Moreover, the modified model improved the simulation of gross primary productivity (GPP) by decreasing the errors of modeled carbon uptake duration and amplitude. Furthermore, the advance in leaf‐unfolding slowed down from 0.20 days/year during 1981–2015 to 0.11 days/year during 2016–2100 under RCP4.5 because of the slowdown of climate warming, but the delay in leaf‐falling changed little. By the last decade of the twenty‐first century, the leaf‐unfolding would advance (8 days) and leaf‐falling would delay (16 days). The subtropical region had large interannual variation (IAV) in leaf‐unfolding because of the high sensitivity to temperature. The phenological dates IAV in the cold temperate region increased due to enhanced temperature IAV. We suggest that the deciduous phenology models, especially the leaf‐falling process, used in Community Land Model need to be improved to reduce the errors in predicting phenology and carbon flux in the future.

Historical Attributions and Future Projections of Gross Primary Productivity in the Yangtze River Basin under Climate Change Based on a Novel Coupled LUE-RE Model

Attributions and predictions of gross primary productivity (GPP) under climate change is of great significance for facilitating a deeper understanding of the global and regional terrestrial carbon cycle and assessing ecosystem health. In this study, we have designed a novel approach to simulate GPP based on the satellite and meteorological data compiling the advantages of the light use efficiency model with regression methods (LUE-RE model), which overcomes the limitation of the satellite-based method in GPP simulation and projection in the future time without satellite data. Based on the proposed method, results show that GPP in the Yangtze River Basin shows a significant increase trend in the historical period. Elevated CO2 dominates the changes of GPP in the Yangtze River Basin. In the future, with the increase in elevated CO2 and climate change, the trend of GPP growth is more obvious. The growth slopes under different scenarios are 2.65 gCm−2year−1a−1, 12.34 gCm−2year−1a−1, 24.91 gCm−2year−1a−1, and 39.62 gCm−2year−1a−1. There are obvious seasonal differences in the future changes of GPP in the Yangtze River Basin, of which the GPP changes mostly in spring. The spatial patterns show that higher GPP is concentrated in the upper stream, while the low values are mainly concentrated in the middle reaches. This study contributes a new method to project GPP and highlights that stakeholders should pay more attention to the significant GPP increases in spring in the future.

Quantifying effects of cold acclimation and delayed springtime photosynthesis resumption in northern ecosystems.

Land carbon dynamics in temperate and boreal ecosystems are sensitive to environmental change. Accurately simulating gross primary productivity (GPP) and its seasonality is key for reliable carbon cycle projections. However, significant biases have been found in early spring GPP simulations of northern forests, where observations often suggest a later resumption of photosynthetic activity than predicted by models. Here, we used eddy covariance-based GPP estimates from 39 forest sites that differ by their climate and dominant plant functional types. We used a mechanistic and an empirical light use efficiency (LUE) model to investigate the magnitude and environmental controls of delayed springtime photosynthesis resumption (DSPR) across sites. We found DSPR reduced ecosystem LUE by 30-70% at many, but not all site-years during spring. A significant depression of LUE was found not only in coniferous but also at deciduous forests and was related to combined high radiation and low minimum temperatures. By embedding cold-acclimation effects on LUE that considers the delayed effects of minimum temperatures, initial model bias in simulated springtime GPP was effectively resolved. This provides an approach to improve GPP estimates by considering physiological acclimation and enables more reliable simulations of photosynthesis in northern forests and projections in a warming climate.

Temporal upscaling of MODIS instantaneous FAPAR improves forest gross primary productivity (GPP) simulation

Gross primary productivity (GPP) is a measure of carbon uptake by terrestrial ecosystems for carbon neutrality and serves as a key indicator for the Sustainable Development Goals. The instantaneous Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR) is applied in GPP estimation by light use efficiency (LUE) models. However, an obvious time scale mismatch exists between instantaneous FAPAR and daily accumulated GPP. In the study, we explored the potential of temporal upscaling instantaneous FAPAR in improving GPP simulation. The absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (APAR) derived from instantaneous and upscaled FAPARs were first compared. GPPs were estimated from instantaneous and upscaled FAPAR by MOD17 LUE model using default and optimized parameters. The optimized GPP was finally compared with three GPP products: GLASS, MOD17A2H and MYD17A2H GPP. The APARs and GPPs were evaluated with the Eddy Covariance (EC) GPP at 78 forest sites from the Fluxnet community. Results showed that when compared with EC GPP, the upscaled FAPAR-derived APAR held a higher R2 (0.26–0.73) than that from instantaneous FAPARs. The upscaled FAPAR-based GPPs by MOD17 LUE model with default or optimized parameters had a larger R2 and smaller RMSE reducing uncertainties by 6.82–7.8% (maximum value: 27.9–49%). The optimized upscaled FAPAR-derived GPP was far superior to the GPP products with larger R2 (0.69–0.85) and smaller RMSE (12.8–14.6 g C/m2/8d). It is concluded that temporal upscaling of MODIS instantaneous FAPAR can well improve the estimation of forest GPP and the parameters of MOD17 LUE model should be further optimized. Our study is an effort toward reducing the uncertainties from FAPAR in the GPP estimation for better assessing the achievement of carbon neutrality and Sustainable Development Goals.