Simulated Precipitation Changes Research Articles

A cross‐biome synthesis of soil respiration and its determinants under simulated precipitation changes

Soil respiration (Rs) is the second-largest terrestrial carbon (C) flux. Although Rs has been extensively studied across a broad range of biomes, there is surprisingly little consensus on how the spatiotemporal patterns of Rs will be altered in a warming climate with changing precipitation regimes. Here, we present a global synthesis Rs data from studies that have manipulated precipitation in the field by collating studies from 113 increased precipitation treatments, 91 decreased precipitation treatments, and 14 prolonged drought treatments. Our meta-analysis indicated that when the increased precipitation treatments were normalized to 28% above the ambient level, the soil moisture, Rs, and the temperature sensitivity (Q10) values increased by an average of 17%, 16%, and 6%, respectively, and the soil temperature decreased by -1.3%. The greatest increases in Rs and Q10 were observed in arid areas, and the stimulation rates decreased with increases in climate humidity. When the decreased precipitation treatments were normalized to 28% below the ambient level, the soil moisture and Rs values decreased by an average of -14% and -17%, respectively, and the soil temperature and Q10 values were not altered. The reductions in soil moisture tended to be greater in more humid areas. Prolonged drought without alterations in the amount of precipitation reduced the soil moisture and Rs by -12% and -6%, respectively, but did not alter Q10. Overall, our synthesis suggests that soil moisture and Rs tend to be more sensitive to increased precipitation in more arid areas and more responsive to decreased precipitation in more humid areas. The responses of Rs and Q10 were predominantly driven by precipitation-induced changes in the soil moisture, whereas changes in the soil temperature had limited impacts. Finally, our synthesis of prolonged drought experiments also emphasizes the importance of the timing and frequency of precipitation events on ecosystem C cycles. Given these findings, we urge future studies to focus on manipulating the frequency, intensity, and seasonality of precipitation with an aim to improving our ability to predict and model feedback between Rs and climate change.

Recent observed and simulated changes in precipitation over Africa

AbstractMultiple observational data sets and atmosphere‐only simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 are analyzed to characterize recent rainfall variability and trends over Africa focusing on 1983–2010. Data sets exhibiting spurious variability, linked in part to a reduction in rain gauge density, were identified. The remaining observations display coherent increases in annual Sahel rainfall (29 to 43 mm yr−1 per decade), decreases in March–May East African rainfall (−14 to −65 mm yr−1 per decade), and increases in annual Southern Africa rainfall (32 to 41 mm yr−1 per decade). However, Central Africa annual rainfall trends vary in sign (−10 to +39 mm yr−1 per decade). For Southern Africa, observed and sea surface temperature (SST)‐forced model simulated rainfall variability are significantly correlated (r~0.5) and linked to SST patterns associated with recent strengthening of the Pacific Walker circulation.

Response of a mixed grass prairie to an extreme precipitation event

Although much research has been conducted to measure vegetation response to directional shifts in climate change drivers, we know less about how plant communities will respond to extreme events. Here, we evaluate the response of a grassland community to an unprecedented 43 cm rainfall event that occurred in the Front Range of Colorado in September, 2013 using vegetation plots that had been monitored for response to simulated precipitation changes since 2011. This rain caused soils to stay at or above field capacity for multiple days, and much of the seed bank germinated following the early autumn event. Annual introduced grasses, especially cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum), and several introduced forbs demonstrated strong positive increases in cover the following growing season. Native cool season grasses and native forbs showed limited changes in absolute cover despite continued high soil water availability, while native warm season grasses increased in cover the following summer. Treatments that previously altered the amounts and seasonality of rainfall during the 2011–2013 interval showed legacy effects impacting cover responses of introduced species and warm‐season native grasses. Resin bag estimates of inorganic nitrogen flux resulting from the event indicated twice as much nitrogen movement compared to any previous collections during the 2011–2013 interval. Nitrogen additions to a subset of plots made in spring of 2014 demonstrated that the relative cover of introduced species could be further increased with additional soil nitrogen. Collectively, these results support the contention that extreme precipitation events can favor species already benefiting from other environmental change drivers.

Transferability in the future climate of a statistical downscaling method for precipitation in France

AbstractA statistical downscaling approach for precipitation in France based on the analog method and its evaluation for different combinations of predictors is described, with focus on the transferability of the method to the future climate. First, the realism of downscaled present‐day precipitation climatology and interannual variability for different combinations of predictors from four reanalyses is assessed. Satisfactory results are obtained, but elaborated predictors do not lead to major and consistent across‐reanalyses improvements. The downscaling method is then evaluated on its capacity to capture precipitation trends in the last decades. As uncertainties in downscaled trends due to the choice of the reanalysis are large and observed trends are weak, this analysis does not lead to strong conclusions on the applicability of the method to a changing climate. The temporal transferability is then assessed thanks to a perfect model framework. The statistical downscaling relationship is built using present‐day predictors and precipitation simulated by 12 regional climate models. The entire projections are then downscaled, and future downscaled and simulated precipitation changes are compared. A good temporal transferability is obtained only with a specific combination of predictors. Finally, the regional climate models are downscaled, thanks to the relationship built with reanalyses and observations, for the best combination of predictors. Results are similar to the changes simulated by the models, which reinforces our confidence in the realism of the models and of the downscaling method. Uncertainties in precipitation change due to reanalyses are found to be limited compared to those due to regional simulations.

Correcting precipitation feature location in general circulation models

AbstractThere is much evidence that precipitation responses to global warming involve wet regions becoming wetter and dry regions drier. This presents challenges for the interpretation of projections from general circulation models (GCMs) which have substantial biases in the location of precipitation features. While improving GCM simulated precipitation is the most desirable solution, adaptation and mitigation decisions must be made with the models already available. Many techniques have been developed to correct biases in grid point precipitation intensities, but few have been introduced to correct for location biases. Here, we describe a new technique for correcting the spatial and seasonal location of climatological precipitation features. We design this technique to respect the geometry of the problem (spherical spatial dimensions, with cyclic seasons), while conserving either precipitation intensities, or integrated precipitation amount. We discuss the mathematical basis of the technique and investigate its behaviour in different regimes. We find that the resulting warps depend smoothly on the most influential parameter, which determines the balance between smoothness and closeness of fit. We show that the technique is capable of removing more than half the RMS error in a model's climatology, obtaining consistently better results when conserving integrated precipitation. To demonstrate the ability of the new technique to improve simulated precipitation changes, we apply our transformations to historical anomalies and show that RMS error is reduced relative to GPCP's anomalies by approximately 10% for both types of warp. This verifies that errors in precipitation changes can be reduced by correcting underlying location errors in a GCM's climatology.

Bias correction can modify climate model simulated precipitation changes without adverse effect on the ensemble mean

Abstract. When applied to remove climate model biases in precipitation, quantile mapping can in some settings modify the simulated difference in mean precipitation between two eras. This has important implications when the precipitation is used to drive an impacts model that is sensitive to changes in precipitation. The tendency of quantile mapping to alter model-predicted changes is demonstrated using synthetic precipitation distributions and elucidated with a simple theoretical analysis, which shows that the alteration of model-predicted changes can be controlled by the ratio of model to observed variance. To further evaluate the effects of quantile mapping in a more realistic setting, we use daily precipitation output from 11 atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs), forced by observed sea surface temperatures, over the conterminous United States to compare precipitation differences before and after quantile mapping bias correction. The effectiveness of the bias correction is not assessed, only its effect on precipitation differences. The change in seasonal mean (winter, DJF, and summer, JJA) precipitation between two historical periods is compared to examine whether the bias correction tends to amplify or diminish an AGCM's simulated precipitation change. In some cases the trend modification can be as large as the original simulated change, though the areas where this occurs varies among AGCMs so the ensemble median shows smaller trend modification. Results show that quantile mapping improves the correspondence with observed changes in some locations and degrades it in others. While not representative of a future where natural precipitation variability is much smaller than that due to external forcing, these results suggest that at least for the next several decades the influence of quantile mapping on seasonal precipitation trends does not systematically degrade projected differences.

Precipitation scaling with temperature in warm and cold climates: An analysis of CMIP5 simulations

AbstractWe investigate the scaling between precipitation and temperature changes in warm and cold climates using six models that have simulated the response to both increased CO2 and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) boundary conditions. Globally, precipitation increases in warm climates and decreases in cold climates by between 1.5%/°C and 3%/°C. Precipitation sensitivity to temperature changes is lower over the land than over the ocean and lower over the tropical land than over the extratropical land, reflecting the constraint of water availability. The wet tropics get wetter in warm climates and drier in cold climates, but the changes in dry areas differ among models. Seasonal changes of tropical precipitation in a warmer world also reflect this “rich get richer” syndrome. Precipitation seasonality is decreased in the cold‐climate state. The simulated changes in precipitation per degree temperature change are comparable to the observed changes in both the historical period and the LGM.

A Modeling Study of Irrigation Effects on Surface Fluxes and Land–Air–Cloud Interactions in the Southern Great Plains

AbstractIn this study, the authors incorporate an operational-like irrigation scheme into the Noah land surface model as part of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). A series of simulations, with and without irrigation, is conducted over the Southern Great Plains (SGP) for an extremely dry (2006) and wet (2007) year. The results show that including irrigation reduces model bias in soil moisture and surface latent heat (LH) and sensible heat (SH) fluxes, especially during a dry year. Irrigation adds additional water to the surface, leading to changes in the planetary boundary layer. The increase in soil moisture leads to increases in the surface evapotranspiration and near-surface specific humidity but decreases in the SH and surface temperature. Those changes are local and occur during daytime. There is an irrigation-induced decrease in both the lifting condensation level (ZLCL) and mixed-layer depth. The decrease in ZLCL is larger than the decrease in mixed-layer depth, suggesting an increasing probability of shallow clouds. The simulated changes in precipitation induced by irrigation are highly variable in space, and the average precipitation over the SGP region only slightly increases. A high correlation is found among soil moisture, SH, and ZLCL. Larger values of soil moisture in the irrigated simulation due to irrigation in late spring and summer persist into the early fall, suggesting that irrigation-induced soil memory could last a few weeks to months. The results demonstrate the importance of irrigation parameterization for climate studies and improve the process-level understanding on the role of human activity in modulating land–air–cloud interactions.

Consistency of simulated and observed regional changes in temperature, sea level pressure and precipitation

There is increasing pressure from stakeholders for highly localised climate change projections. A comprehensive assessment of climate model performance at the grid box scale in simulating recent change, however, is not available at present. Therefore, we compare observed changes in near-surface temperature, sea level pressure (SLP) and precipitation with simulations available from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects 3 and 5 (CMIP3 and CMIP5). In both multi-model datasets we find coherent areas of inconsistency between observed and simulated local trends per degree global warming in both temperature and SLP in the majority of models. Localised projections should thus take into account the possibility of regional biases shared across models. In contrast, simulated changes in precipitation are not significantly different from observations due to low signal-to-noise ratio of local precipitation changes. Therefore, recent regional rainfall change is likely not providing useful constraints for future projections as of yet. Comparing the two most recent sets of internationally coordinated climate model experiments, we find no indication of improvement in the models’ ability to reproduce local trends in temperature, SLP and precipitation.

Pollution from China increases cloud droplet number, suppresses rain over the East China Sea

Rapid economic growth over the last 30 years in China has led to a significant increase in aerosol loading, which is mainly due to the increased emissions of its precursors such as SO2 and NOx. Here we show that these changes significantly affect wintertime clouds and precipitation over the East China Sea downwind of major emission sources. Satellite observations show an increase of cloud droplet number concentration from less than 200 cm−3 in the 1980s to more than 300 cm−3 in 2005. In the same time period, precipitation frequency reported by voluntary ship observers was reduced from more than 30% to less than 20% of the time. A back trajectory analysis showed the pollution in the investigation area to originate from the Shanghai‐Nanjing and Jinan industrial areas. A model sensitivity study was performed, isolating the effects of changes in emissions of the aerosol precursors SO2 and NOx on clouds and precipitation using a state‐of‐the‐art mesocale model including chemistry and aerosol indirect effects. Similar changes in cloud droplet number concentration over the East China Sea were obtained when the current industrial emissions in China were reduced to the 1980s levels. Simulated changes in precipitation were somewhat smaller than the observed changes but still significant.

An assessment of future extreme precipitation in western Norway using a linear model

Abstract. A Linear Model (Smith and Barstad, 2004) was used to dynamically downscale Orographic Precipitation over western Norway from twelve General Circulation Model simulations. The GCM simulations come from the A1B emissions scenario in IPCC's 2007 AR4 report. An assessment of the changes to future Orographic Precipitation (time periods: 2046–2065 and 2081–2100) versus the historical control period (1971–2000) was performed. Results showed increases in the number of Orographic Precipitation days and in Orographic Precipitation intensity. Extreme precipitation events, as defined by events that exceede the 99.5%-ile threshold for intensity for the considered period, were found to be up to 20% more intense in future time periods when compared to 1971–2000 values. Using station-based observations from the control period, the results from downscaling could be used to generate simulated precipitation histograms at selected stations. The Linear Model approach also allowed for simulated changes in precipitation to be disaggregated according to their causal source: (a) the role of topography and (b) changes to the amount of moisture delivery to the site. The latter could be additionaly separated into moisture content changes due to the following: (i) temperature, (ii) wind speed, and (iii) stability. An analysis of these results suggested a strong role of moist stability and warming in the increasing intensity of extreme Orographic Precipitation events in the area.

Large discrepancy between observed and simulated precipitation trends in the ascending and descending branches of the tropical circulation

Observed and model simulated changes in precipitation are examined using vertical motion at 500 hPa to define ascending and descending branches of the tropical circulation. Vertical motion fields from reanalyses were employed to subsample the observed precipitation data. An emerging signal of rising precipitation trends in the ascending regions and decreasing trends in the descending regimes are detected in the observational datasets. These trends are substantially larger in magnitude than present‐day model simulations and projections into the 21st century. The discrepancy cannot be explained by changes in the reanalysis fields used to subsample the observations but instead must relate to errors in the satellite data or in the model parametrizations. This has important implications for future predictions of climate change, the reliability of the observing system and the monitoring of the global water cycle.

Transient simulations, empirical reconstructions and forcing mechanisms for the Mid-holocene hydrological climate in southern Patagonia

This study investigates the atmospheric circulation in transient climate simulations with a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (GCM) for the mid-Holocene (MH) period 7–4.5 ka BP driven with combinations of orbital, solar and greenhouse gas forcings. The focus is on southern South America. Statistical downscaling models are derived from observational data and applied to the simulations to estimate precipitation in south-eastern Patagonia during the MH. These estimates are compared with lake level estimates for Laguna Potrok Aike (LPA) from sediments. Relative to pre-industrial conditions (i.e. 1550–1850), which show extraordinarily high lake levels, the proxy-based reconstructed lake levels during the MH are lower. The downscaled simulated circulation differences indicate higher LPA precipitation during the MH from March to August, higher annual means, and reduced precipitation from September to February. Thus the reconstructed lower LPA lake levels can not be explained solely by the simulated precipitation changes. Possible reasons for this discrepancy are discussed. Based on proxy data from southern South America hypotheses have also been proposed on the latitudinal position of the southern hemispheric westerlies (SHWs). In agreement with some of these hypotheses our simulations show an increased seasonal cycle of the latitudinal position of the SHWs during the MH, which can be explained by the orbital forcing. The simulations also show stronger SHWs over southern Patagonia during austral summer and weaker SHWs during winter. The downscaling model associates weaker SHWs with increased precipitation in the LPA region. However, this relationship is only moderate, and therefore the downscaling model does not support the assumption of a strong link between mean SHWs and precipitation over south-eastern Patagonia, which is the basis of many proxy-based hypotheses about the SHWs.

West African monsoon response to greenhouse gas and sulphate aerosol forcing under two emission scenarios

The impact of increased greenhouse gases (GHG) and aerosols concentrations upon the West African monsoon (WAM) is investigated for the late twenty-first century period using the Meteo-France ARPEGE-IFS high-resolution atmospheric model. Perturbed (2070–2100) and current (1961–2000) climates are compared using the model in time-slice mode. The model is forced by global sea surface temperatures provided by two transient scenarios performed with low-resolution coupled models and by two GHG evolution scenarios, SRES-A2 and SRES-B2. Comparing to reanalysis and observed data sets, the model is able to reproduce a realistic seasonal cycle of WAM despite a clear underestimation of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) during the boreal summer. Mean temperature change indicates a global warming over the continent (stronger over North and South Africa). Simulated precipitation change at the end of the twenty-first century shows an increase in precipitation over Sudan-Sahel linked to a strong positive feedback with surface evaporation. Along Guinea Gulf coast, rainfall regimes are driven by large-scale moisture advection. Moreover, results show a mean precipitation decrease (increase) in the most (less) enhanced GHG atmosphere over this region. Modification of the seasonal hydrological cycle consists in a rain increase during the monsoon onset. There is a significant increase in rainfall variance over the Sahel, which extends over the Guinea coast region in the moderate emission scenario. Enhanced precipitation over Sahel is linked to large-scale circulation changes, namely a weakening of the AEJ and an intensification of the Tropical Easterly Jet.

Simulation of the relative impact of land cover and carbon dioxide to climate change from 1700 to 2100

The contribution of land cover change (relative to increased CO2) to climate change at the global scale is investigated using the Global Environmental and Ecological Simulations of Interactive Systems (GENESIS) climate model with an interactive BIOME vegetation model based on simulations at 1700 and 2100. Three 40‐year model equilibrium simulations were performed. The first experiment specified carbon dioxide levels of 280 ppmv without human‐induced land use (1700); the second experiment specified carbon dioxide levels of 690 ppmv without human‐induced land use; the third experiment specified carbon dioxide levels of 690 ppmv and included patterns of extensive human land use (as projected for 2100). Data on the extent of human modification to the land at different times were obtained from the History Database of the Global Environment (HYDE) for 1700 and the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE2.2) for 2100. The IMAGE model projects land cover changes in response to demographic and economic activity. The projection based on the A1b scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios was used for this work. As expected, statistically significant (95% level) climate changes in response to carbon dioxide levels were widespread. In contrast, the impact of the land cover change appears to reduce the spatial extent and sometimes magnitude of the changes in temperature due to increased carbon dioxide. Regions where land cover change explained more than 60% of the combined signal due to an increase in CO2 and land cover change are confined to the Northern Hemisphere for near‐surface temperature. Projected land cover changes produced warming (but smaller than that produced by CO2) in some regions and cooling in other regions. The warming, which is about 4 K (seasonal) in some mid to high latitudes, is dominated by physiological factors altering the balance of latent to sensible heating rather than morphological mechanisms. The simulated changes in precipitation are more complex.

Effects of simulated climate change on the hydrology of major river basins

Changes in the climatology of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture lead also to changes in runoff and streamflow. The potential effects of global warming on the hydrology of 23 major rivers are investigated. The runoff simulated by the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (CCCma) coupled climate model for the current climate is routed through the river system to the river mouth and compared with results for the warmer climate simulated to occur towards the end of the century. Changes in mean discharge, in the amplitude and phase of the annual streamflow cycle, in the annual maximum discharge (the flood) and its standard deviation, and in flow duration curves are all examined. Changes in flood magnitudes for different return periods are estimated using extreme value analysis. In the warmer climate, there is a general decrease in runoff and 15 out of the 23 rivers considered experience a reduction in annual mean discharge (with a median reduction of 32%). The changes in runoff are not uniform and discharge increases for 8 rivers (with a median increase of 13%). Middle‐ and high‐latitude rivers typically show marked changes in the amplitude and phase of their annual cycle associated with a decrease in snowfall and an earlier spring melt in the warmer climate. Low‐latitude rivers exhibit changes in mean discharge but modest changes in their annual cycle. The analysis of annual flood magnitudes show that 17 out of 23 rivers experience a reduction in mean annual flood (a median reduction of 20%). Changes in flow duration curves are used to characterize the different kinds of behavior exhibited by different groups of rivers. Differences in the regional distribution of simulated precipitation and runoff for the control simulation currently limit the application of the approach. The inferred hydrological changes are, nevertheless, plausible and consistent responses to simulated changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration and indicate the kinds of hydrological changes that could occur in a warmer climate.

Multiyear present‐day and 2 × CO2 simulations of monsoon climate over eastern Asia and Japan with a regional climate model nested in a general circulation model

Two continuous 5‐year‐long simulations over eastern Asia and the Japan islands, one for present‐day climate (control) and one for climate under doubled carbon dioxide concentration (2×CO2) are completed with a regional climate model (RegCM) nested, in a one‐way mode, within a general circulation model (GCM). The GCM is run at R15 resolution (4.5×7.5° latitude × longitude), and the RegCM is run at 50‐km grid point spacing. In the control run, both the GCM and the RegCM reproduce the seasonal migration of the westerly jet but produce too strong a monsoonal circulation, which results in a significant overestimate of summer precipitation over the eastern Asian continent. The temporal evolution of the eastern Asia summer monsoon, with steady phases separated by more rapid transitions, is reproduced, but the monsoon rain belt reaches too far north, and the occurrence of tropical storms is underestimated. Regionally averaged surface air temperatures are mostly within 1–3°C of observations. Seasonal precipitation amounts over Japan are within 10–35% of observed ones. The narrow Korea and Japan land masses, which are not captured by the GCM grid, substantially affect the simulated surface precipitation climatology in the RegCM. Under 2×CO2 forcing, warming in the range of 4–11°C is simulated, greater in winter than in summer and increasing toward high latitudes. The strength of the monsoonal circulation increases in 2×CO2 conditions, leading to a general increase in precipitation over all regions by 10–30%. The simulated precipitation change shows significant regional and, within Japan, subregional structure. The Japan and Korea land masses substantially affect the summer precipitation changes, indicating the need to capture them in numerical simulations of climate change. Because of the uncertainties in the control simulations, our 2×CO2 results are intended not to provide climate change scenarios for impact assessments, but only to illustrate the model sensitivity to different forcings. Plans are under way to further test and improve the RegCM performance over the region and to use more recent GCM simulations to drive the RegCM.